The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

JohnH123 wrote:
Here is a recent comment from Charles Hugh Smith:

"I have publicly proposed a "schedule" in which a preliminary disruption/ crisis (such as a currency crisis, oil shortage, sharp global recession, etc.) in the 2018-19 time frame forces the central banks/states to change the rules and create even more trillions with even greater abandon.

This calms the water for a few years but only increases the systemic instability that finally breaks through the veneer of permanent convenience/ good times in the 2021-25 time frame."

It sounds to me that Charles is saying 2021 - 2025 is when he sees the next big crisis emerge. How high will the Dow be by then?

That's a long time to wait (if he is right), especially when the central banks keep the markets rocketing upwards. Consider too that forecasters are usually very early on their calls.

When the elites change the rules in the next big crisis, wouldn't it be to their advantage to benefit those who hold financial assets/stocks?

I've been out of the market the last 9 years, and still question the wisdom of that decision, especially going forward.

Thanks for posting this 'schedule'. It's useful to be mindful that these things can go on A LOT longer than we anticipate and to question whether we should be betting against the Fed?

Hi Adam,

your long-term chart of the S&P 500 may be misleading as it's not on a log scale.

While the stock market is undoubtedly high, it may not be in a 'mega bubble'. See this from interview with Howard Marks:


Are we even in another bubble?

No. You know, people make sloppy use of terminology. A bubble is not just a highly valued market. A bubble is ridiculously high. Don’t get me wrong, I think the valuation of the U.S. stock market is very high, but it’s not ridiculously high. In a bubble, people say that there is «no price too high,» and they say «only good things can happen.» I don’t see that today. Most of the people I talk to say things like: «We know this thing can’t go on forever, but we just don’t see what could derail the market anytime soon.» At least they’re conscious that there are limitations.

Is there an established way to calculate the margin between growth since the crash (real- not inflated prices) and the market bid up with cheap credit and QE?
The market is higher than before the crash, but there has been real growth in many sectors of the economy and some pretty sharp contraction elsewhere. How does the individual investor see the real change in value underneath the bubble?
As to Tom Petty, I got to see him live back in the day and his show was most excellent. Unlike so many live shows today that run on autopilot, his was worth the money and time/hassle of a live event. Sad he died so soon, but he was a heavy smoker by all accounts and that is a ticket to an early grave. If you partake, do yourself a favor and quit yesterday.