…while I still have the same concerns about the future world that I’ve had since I joined this community a looong time ago, I’m not feeling guilty or worried about his future. I know it’ll be hard, and uncertain, but we are going back to how it was before the fossil fuel and financialization “miracles” happened. Things will get smaller and slower and local-er. None of those things are bad things, per se, from a quality of human life standpoint.
Sure, if we go past some liminal CO2 point and the world floods and burns and everybody dies, that’ll suck. But it’s become clear that these decisions have been made in places where the political process cannot reach and, leaving bloody armed worldwide revolution out of it, the process cannot be stopped.
I love to sport in the ocean. I have not the grace to actually surf. But I love to take my bodyboard into big waves (like, 6-8’ high). When you catch a big one, it’s an awesome rush and it’s sweet to spot with the force of nature like that. Sometimes, while I’m paddling hard to catch a wave, it’ll become apparent I’m going to miss it. When that happens, one immediately backpaddles like heck to let the wave pass by. But sometimes you get caught up in the middle of the wave process – too far back to catch the wave, too far forward to back off and skip it – and you go “over the falls” – you fall that 6-8’ through the air and then tons of water land on top of you and run you through the “washing machine”… I can play in the ocean like this because I cultivate my body’s strength and flexibility and I have knowledge of how the ocean works and what to do when I fcuk but and go over the waterfall.
If you’re strong (resilient)…the wave can land on you and you laugh as you fall and get thrown willy-nilly. If you’re not, you could lose your life.
Seems like the waterfall is coming for all of us. Skill up, strength up, supply up, community up, y’all. We humans didn’t get this far because we’re helpless or despairing. Just keep giving up stuff you don’t need. Then give up some more. Locate the essential (stuff and skills) and find your tribe. We’re gonna make it. Just going to be…way…way…different. Get OK with that. Life is still beautiful without the internet and air conditioning…
Not a perfect metaphor for what is coming but if anybody finds it instructive, then I didn’t waste my time typing this out.
Your post really resonated with me, Sager. I have two children, and while I certainly do not relish what’s coming, I also do not want to live in perpetual fear of it at the expense of actually living life. Living life requires flexibility, humor, and resilience, and I too learned this through interacting with nature, through body-boarding, through raising kids, and through gardening (to name a few things). What good does it do anyone to prepare for the imminent crises we face as a species if you don’t also cherish and enjoy life?
It’s always amusing to me when people who don’t know me accuse me simultaneously of being overly pessimistic and of being “one of those crazy preppers.” The two, in my mind, are mutually exclusive ideas. First off, I’m only “pessimistic” when measured against the inane levels of Hopium/Optimism-At-All-Costs our cultural meme spews out. Secondly, if I was so pessimistic about the future, why would we be spending time, energy and money to prepare for the future in the first place? It would be so much easier to give up and just live in the moment, but my wife and I have chosen the far more difficult path of living in as much joy in today, while also acknowledging the difficulties tomorrow is likely to bring and preparing for it. We prepare because we are not hopeless or helpless. Our “pessimism” combines with our joy for life, and this is the fuel that keeps us moving forward.
Anyways, I’ll stop rambling now. Great post, Sager.
Hello- like your reasoning- have been following the lowtechmagazine community for more thought in that vein. Have you seen the Danzer DC refrig and freezer line? made in USA and DC powered, well insulated. Real goods has them…
“It isn’t about the greater good. It’s about what is right and wrong on an individual basis. Because if you neglect the people, the idea of the greater good is a pipe dream created by those whose idea of greater good, almost always, favors themselves and people like them.”
This isn’t worth the time it takes to discus it. Indeed, I really don’t think it’s such a big deal to rig an inverter if it’s needed – but that’s a waste of time if I don’t need it. Nor do I disagree with the basic points that 1) you want to your your electricity at it’s source, and not waste energy storing, transforming converting, transmitting.
Nor will this save us. Rather, my thought was that an inverter should not be too much of a worry, if it’s needed.
Really liked Sid Smiths podcast “ How to Enjoy The End of The World”. I also listened to his 1st podcast.
Quote “Capitalism doesn’t have any concern for the future”. Sid Smith
Hmmm, that about says it all.
Someone once said that blood didn’t flow through Michael Angelo’s veins paint did. I suspect he didn’t consciously choose his life’s path it was an inner drive. And I suspect that Chris didn’t design his life he has a gift as well and it has lead him to help us, nature and our medow.(planet for those who didn’t watch the podcast) Stay the course Chris!
Am grateful for this site and its contributors!
AKGrannyWGrit
Nice post Sager
The Australian business sector is very happy with the election outcome! To quote from The Saturday Paper, 25–31/5/19, front page:
Investors were clearly pleased with the Coalition's win, seen as a victory for shareholders and the wealthy over the community at large. The finance sector jumped 5.6 per cent, with the Big Four banks doing particularly well, their shares up by between 6.3 and 9.2 per cent. … Health insurers did even better, on the understanding that — unlike Labor — a Coalition government would not prevent them from raising premiums for their customers. Medibank Private and NIB were both up by 11.5 per cent and 15.8 per cent respectively. Larger, though, than all of those gains on the Australian market was that of one company listed on the National Stock Exchange of India — Adani Enterprises. On Sunday the company saw its share price leap almost 30 per cent.The win of the Modi government in India means that Adani's empire building schemes get a huge boost, among them new coal-fired power stations. Guess where that coal will come from. We're stuffed. Comments: A recently-concluded Royal Commission (of Inquiry) into the conduct and practices of the Big Four banks found them guilty of deceptive practices and of cheating their customers out of huge amounts of money. The Coalition government fought the setting up of the Commission all the way. Why would they do that? For the time being we still have the publicly funded Medicare system and it is not necessary to carry private health insurance. I'm still considering withdrawing from Medibank Private and relying on Medicare. Consolation: As some sort of consolation, play this at 11 and immerse yourself in it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXh5JprKqiU
The lyric that I’ve believed, for 40 years, best sums things up is from Pink Floyd’s “Brain Damage”:
The lunatic is in the hall
The lunatics are in my hall
The paper holds their folded faces to the floor
And every day the paper boy brings more
Chris, it’s been a long, long time since I’ve engaged on Peak Prosperity, in large part because I felt like you were ignoring the 800 lb. gorilla in the room by steering the site away from a realistic discussion on climate change. I just looked at an old e-mail of yours, from 2011, where you explained that it simply didn’t make sense to discuss climate. I’d like to thank you for shifting to a much more proactive position. I’m not sure I agree with your assessment that civilization is facing imminent collapse - there’s still a fair amount of inertia in the system, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we muddled along for another 20 or 30 years before everything goes off the rails - but there’s absolutely no doubt that risk of collapse is serious and getting worse by the day. In any case, thanks for evolving your stance to reflect the reality of the situation.
I’m not sure I agree with your assessment that civilization is facing imminent collapse – there’s still a fair amount of inertia in the system, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we muddled along for another 20 or 30 years before everything goes off the railsMy timing is not known because I specifically don't and have never put out a time frame for when a collapse event will occur. I have said that the next twenty years will be completely unlike the past twenty years. I have also said that collapse is a process, not an event, and that it's actually already underway. If you shared my views on insects alone, and the deeply unwise practice of wiping out the bottom of the food chain, you'd agree with me that collapse is already underway. But let's assume that I agreed with your assessment of 20 to 30 more years before things really begin to go off the rails. Even with that timing I'd say that's "imminent" because of the vast lead times required to do anything about anything at scale. If you said "we have 30- years to fix the energy infrastructure to move 100% away from fossil fuels" I would respond "we're scroomed then, there isn't enough time." Sorry to say, I haven't really changed my view of the utility of climate change as a useful human organizing principle and change agent. It remains distant, statistical, abstract, something about which any one individual has practicality zero agency, and easily 'disproven' by people's local weather experiences. Worse, the face we'd have to attach to it is the one in the mirror. I noted the students striking all over Europe again last weekend and felt really good about that. At the same time I wondered how many of them were willing to give up cheap clothes made half way around the world, their cell phones, or any of a thousand other expressions of "cheap and easy" that fossil fuels deliver to them personally. I bet a fair lot of them would more easily and readily give up creature comforts than their elders, but still it would be a small number I'd bet. Yet that's what has to happen - we have to change our lifestyles and adjust our expectations towards a world without this economic 'growth' we're all so fond of. That means changing the narrative. If climate change proves to be the narrative that finally wakes people up and moves them to action, I will be glad to have been in the wrong about that. In the meantime, I'll continue to promote people making individual changes to their lives that build greater resilience, knowing that these are the same steps that are necessary to create a world worth inheriting whether one's focus is climate change, The Everything Bubble, or the looming energy predicament. I'm thoroughly agnostic. Whatever works best and fastest. We really don't have a lot of time. 20 - 30 years is ridiculously imminent given the challenges and numbers of people involved.
Perspective is always a difficult hurdle. There is no right and wrong because point of view is always tainted by emotion. Emotion that is an undeniable component of the human decision making process.
To be clear, the Australian liberal party won their election by default. That’s because the voting public is inevitably torn between humanitarian idealism, communism, union dictatorship or business-as-usual. There is simply no-one worth electing.
Ultimately this is a recurring theme in elections world-wide, of late. There is no-one worthy of power and that’s simply because an incompetent and disconnected establishment has become so fully entrenched in politics that they’ve begun to separate away from the general public like expired paint. Their emulsifier is simply a hasty mix of lies and smoke that doesn’t last past election night.
You can try and spin some kind of positive survival or resurrection story onto what has become an overpopulated, leaderless global community of barely educated and emotionally immature parasites but the inertia from 8 billion people, most of whom can barely add three numbers together, unwilling to give up the high energy dream sold to us by an Anglo-American business culture, is unstoppable. Like Lemmings heading for their seasonal suicide the human race is due for its own cyclical political cataclysm.
Only when the dust settles, in the apocalyptic hell that follows political self-destruction, will it be time to act. Hopefully by then the perspective will be more focused on practicalities as opposed to Hollywood dreams.
Hey Chris,
When the world bank starts to agree with us, we know we’re in trouble.
These guys are futurists with a pretty sophisticated AI that trolls for trends. You may have to set up a free login to read this. They are worth looking at from time to time.
https://www.shapingtomorrow.com/home/alert/7425457-Recessionary-Signals-
This is an interesting summary of Taleb’s work in the context of urban design. Something to think about when we’re considering where to relocate and into what type of community structure. Resilient is good; anti-fragil is better.
https://www.cnu.org/publicsquare/2019/04/17/beyond-resilience-toward-%E2%80%98antifragile%E2%80%99-urbanism
There’s an old man who just died, who lived across the street from us.
https://hburgcitizen.com/2019/06/06/maybe-he-knew-something-we-didnt-know-the-legacy-of-quiet-t-please/amp/?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR0Jpf56TYilEuroXA5Kuimo1riB33x6ZhyVosyt3bMde_si5nOE_MGVL4k
Notice the antifragile ideas he had about policing.
Create an Earth badge to place on people’s profile picture in exchange for $3/mo donated to a climate change PAC. It will spread virally, and once we hit 2.5 million people, the PAC would have more lobbying money than the defense and healthcare industry combined. That PAC (representing the people [of Earth, not just the US]) then hires lobbyists and dismantles campaign finance rules by overwhelming it. Climate change solved. Democracy restored.Not to dismiss the emotional appeal of using social media to fight for action on climate change, but a PAC and badge are probably not the way to go about it. Read this article about how the Tea Party has been killed by grifters asking for money. https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-real-problem-conservatism-faces-today/ Any sort of Earth Badge would be quickly cooped or out right stolen by people who want to line their own pockets. It would also be little more than a way to shame people while signaling how virtuous a person was. The fight to preserve some sort of Future for our children isn't going to be won by little things like using reusable grocery bags, or outlawing single use straws, its going to be won when people hold the big corporations accountable.
Absolutely right about this dangerous trend of social media signalling as a meaningless identity politics driven mistake. It can be faked and copied by the unscrupulous. If it requires a donation, we can also shame the poor who can’t afford to toss money toward a questionable cause. It’s not like you know beforehand that they will do anything other than line their pockets and create cute badges. Maybe a few cat videos too.
I purchased a used Prius for totally economic reasons (drive long distances for work). People in a leftist university town see it and assume I can’t balance my checkbook so I bought it as an eco statement (even though the numbers say if you add in all manufacturing and disposal costs, it’s not eco friendly).
More importantly, this symbolic social media crap does NOTHING constructive. However, it gives the lazy and willfully blind the impression that they are doing something useful for the environment, so they don’t need to make any substantive changes in their own lifestyles. In the overall scheme of things, it is a terrible idea. Joining the right tribe in the virtual world and high-fiving each other for how politically correct our posts are distracts from the overwhelming need to make constructive change in the real world. It also serves as a polarizing force that prevents exchange of ideas with those in a conflicting tribe. I’ve put my virtual stake in the ground and left no place for constructive dialog with those flying the other flag. Gridlock polarization, here we come.
“I have never seen a girl so young and with so many mental disorders treated by so many adults as a guru,” Bolt wrote.
As someone who has lived in Australia for 40 years, and seeing there are Australian contributors to this website, I would urge the strongest possible opposition to Bolt.
The girl he is slandering is the girl who is claiming the future we are pouring down the toilet. She is in contact with the most knowledgeable climate scientists there are, and so the Murdoch press must crush her.
Greta knows that fires in the Arctic circle 2 years running is unprecedented, and Paris had a record 2.0C (47.2C), more, a huge step up. She looks at the Arctic sea ice level regularly over the summer melt.
IMHO the “collapse” is underway, we are now quite a long way OUTSIDE the safe climate zone in which we have evolved over 10,000 years. Next stages = Arctic, ice free summer, the next El Nino.
Prof Tim Garret gives a succinct follow up from Alfred Bartlett.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Efba4t2tF-g