I actually agree with you almost completely rhare… certainly Bitcoin's future depends on a functioning internet… although the internet may fail in some parts of the world, I don't think it will fail everywhere… and as long as it's functioning somewhere, and you have your Bitcoins (keys) stored on a non-volatile memory device, then you still hold them and they can still hold or even increase their value for later on. What I am pointing out is that there is a niche for Bitcoin… and while I don't ever expect it to be as big as Gold and Silver… there is still lots of growing room in this niche and I don't see much that can stop it. I am not a computer programmer, but the underlying algorithm and the associated cryptology has so far proven rock solid… the only effective hacks have been to the digital purse technology that some people use to hold Bitcoins online… there have been no problems with the more secure versions of purse technology that you can run on your own computer.
There is no arguing that Bitcoin is gaining value faster than they are being mined… the free market is speaking day by day as the exchange rate of dollars to Bitcoins keeps rising. We can sit around and express our doubts… which is all well and good… but you have to admit that something is happening… for now, this thing is taking off and taking off big relative to any other non-Governmental currency. Relative to anything before like Ithaca Hours, or Berkshares, it is a HUGE, HUGE, success, and it is a worldwide success.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
“No. We've been here before, and the consequences – though not always immediate – have invariably been bad. There is not a single instance in historical data since 1871 when the S&P 500 traded above 18 times record earnings and there was not a low a year or more later that erased every bit of advantage over Treasury bills. Not one.”
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130211.htm
I guess there could be a first or a "This Time its Different".
I don't think so though.
This is the state of the market and I just shake my head, UNBELIEVABLE!
“You know Gordon, I agree with you, but let me take a different tack on this, alright? Let’s say you believe that China is making up the numbers. But if the stock market there keeps going up because of it, and you believe the government will keep priming the numbers, isn’t that sort of a reason to bet on the Chinese stock market?”
… and that’s why we’re all gonna die.
Regards
BOB
I just can't get comfy with the Bitcoin concept when it comes to money. The same advantages that goverment and big banking have in everything else can be extended to Bitcoin if they decide the time is right. How long would it take the NSA and other similar government agencies around the globe to track and stop Bitcoin transactions if they wanted to…?..not long IMO. How long would it take to start fouling up transactions? Consider it only takes a small percent of misdirected payments or missing transactions to make the whole system untrustable. What if the HFT computers were rededicated to creating Bitcoins during non-trading hours/weekends?..I would be willing to bet "they" could create a Bitcoin glut and get rich at the same time under the right conditions if "they" wanted to. I can't convince myself it's more reality than fantasy and thus could end badly.
Bitcoin transactions are peer-to-peer, and one could therefore protect the transactions like any other datastream via encryption, using a service like this;https://secure.cryptohippie.com/products_why.php
Bankers and Governments cannot extend their powers over Bitcoin - it is fully decentralized… like DNA, every instance of the program running on a mining computer contains the entire ownership record, so to speak;
How bitcoin works - Bitcoin Wiki
I certainly can't, and would not, guarantee that the Government couldn't and wouldn't try to do something disruptive to Bitcoin at some point… but it really cannot be destroyed. If you really wanted to kill Bitcoin… the way to do it would be to act like a predatory Corporation that sees a small competitor nosing into it's space… buy the company out and let it die! Yes, the most effective way to kill Bitcoin would be to buy every one of them at a premium. In this scenario you make out great selling your Bitcoins to the Government… and then you simply start trading in New Bitcoins when they (inevitably) get started.
You said, "What if the HFT computers were rededicated to creating Bitcoins during non-trading hours/weekends?...I would be willing to bet "they" could create a Bitcoin glut and get rich at the same time under the right conditions if "they" wanted to"This shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how Bitcoin works. More than 1/2 the Bitcoins that will ever be mined, have been mined. There will never be a glut, as they get progressively more difficult to mine. If the Government were to employ a powerful computer of their own to mine Bitcoins.. it would create the opposite of a glut, right? The beauty of Bitcoin is that no derivatives of it exist.. it cannot be sold short! The bankers cannot effectively suppress its currency exchange value.. its price. It is the only money, the only good that I know of that exists today in a state of pure, free market valuation. It does take time to wrap one's brain around this.. it took me time for sure..
By the time were all done we may be trading with pelts and shells. I don't trust any system that can stretch beyond daily human awareness. Gold can be manipuated as well as anything else. If we go back on to the gold standard, what's to stop us from pulling off again in the future when it becomes inconvenient?
I would argue that putting our faith any monetary system as an enforcer of rational human behavior will lead to a brake down no matter how nobel and perfect the system may starts off as. Wasn't it wars we couldn't afford, peaking of american energy production and unrealistic material lifestyle expectations that pulled us of the gold standard to begin with. Those are the root causes of the problem, monetary dislocations and shenanigans that happen after the fact to cover up for unrealistic, self delusional actions.
Berkshares may be tied to the dollar now, but there is a system in place that can be cut loose when the dollar goes haywire. Consequences tied to local actions and reactions. Communities living by local means and local collective awareness.
I think that the age of the one big idea, mass production, the one hero, the one size fits all system metric is dead. This is the time diversity and individualization when each person and small communities express their unique gifts to create a whole that is greater than the sum of the parts. I think that things are fragmenting and become part of a more harmonious whole at the same time and these movements are not contradictory. Let have hundreds of local currencies expressing the needs of peolpes in the own bioregions and temperments where monetary policy is no longer the driving force but the creative expression people living meaningful fulfilling lives.
" Not since the Civil War (1861 - 65) has anything bad of this scale happened within the United States itself and the public is unprepared"
"There is also chatter among the paranoid that an imagined elite has deliberately engineered American collapse for fun and profit, with sideshows about the Department of Homeland Security promoting social upheaval in order to make a show of putting it down. This is all bullshit"
"The implacable contraction underway is the simple result of growing scarcity of cheap oil"
"One thing you can be sure of: the current sociopolitical weather will change. A front will blow through and sweep the fog away."
"it will be every community for itself"
I Completely Agree.
http://kunstler.com/blog/2013/02/state-of-the-union.html
Peace
BOB
Jim H,Perhaps the current version of Bitcoin is secure and limited. What is to prevent the folks who were smart enough to concoct this scheme from making another rendition(s)? If enough competitors to Bitcoin enter the marketplace, doesn't that effectively dilute Bitcoin's value as well?
All money relies on the acceptance of the receiver. Part of the internal calculation of value is the expectation that the money will have purchasing power in the future. I see lots of potential and unknowable problems with Bitcoin. Many of these problems have been identified by others on various threads.
You ride to the defense of Bitcoin about as fervently as you defend precious metals. For short term exchanges as a competitor to FRNs, I can see the logic. Bitcoins may even appreciate faster than PMs in the short term - good for them. As long as the status quo remains, it may be a profitable cause to defend.
What happens the day after?
Grover
You quote Kunstler:
I suppose I'm a bit encouraged by the shift from "every person for him/herself". But isolated communities are vulnerable for the same reasons that isolated individuals are. In a region where many communities exist, they'll need to find ways to interact for mutual benefit.
"it will be every community for itself"
"every community for themselves". Here where I live must be similar to where Kunstler lives. Here we have old farming, saw mill, and orchards. All located within very short distances, and the community size is 5000 or less for each. These communities still have their rail and old roads by way the crow flies, and have been here since well before the Civil War. Many streets in these towns are named after the good Folks who's great grandson's still farm with their sons, and little ones.I suspect the relationship between all of our communities will revert back to old forms as this thing moves forward. Truth is we know quite a few families from many of the other communities now through activities shared together, and family marrying family. I expect these communities will do just fine, and the values of living this life will reemerge as this crisis grinds along down the backslide.
If you have ever been in a farmers repair barn you will see many items left over from the horse drawn days, and in this community the horse drawn days was still in existence in the 60's and 70's rather heavily.
Sure the internal combustion engine was the rave for farms but alongside still existed the horse, and still does but for recreation, and is more isolated but the infrastructure is still there. Only now it is the bigger cities in the area who provide the cash for many stables by renting and riding on nearby land.
So I can see where "every community for themselves" implies what type community do you/we live in now, and how far are you/we away from a historically sustainable community are you/we.
Every event of any measure has been survived by these communities, and I suspect we will survive this one as well. Fact is I think its a cinch that we will.
There was a saying more common as I grew up than I hear today and it will be common again: "There's no substitution for hard work than to work hard". We'll be fine, and manufacturing will be fine, and we'll have to turn inward and figure this thing out collectively as Americans have always done.
That or perish I suppose. When faced with those choices to adapt or perish then I think the vast majority will adapt. Population will correct on its own as many see that it is unsustainable. Our son's and daughter's will still have children but it will be 1, 2, 3 perhaps or none at all. It will be a choice born by what is right and economically feasible.
I just see things differently than some because I haven't seen anything in my area that looks like it couldn't be sustainable. All the lands were farmed as they sit now for a long time now, and food is critical so they'll get the energy that is available to feed the masses.
We have many creeks too, and they will be re-dammed, and power generated again for purposes once useful. We have the Canals, Rivers, and Lakes that will again be used for commerce and trade so I really am quite optimistic. Frankly, I see no country with the advantages that the US has with regards to navigational waters, and we share borders with friendly Folks. Canada and Mexico are really a blessing when looking elsewhere in the world. So, I think, good stuff.
Be Good
BOB
Bob,Thanks for the kind reply. Among other things, it illustrates the point I made. I quite agree that communities already living "closer to the earth", with a ready willingness to "figure this thing out collectively", have much less further to go than the urban/suburban environments where folks all too often don't even know their closest neigbhor.
Truth is we know quite a few families from many of the other communities now through activities shared together, and family marrying family.There's a couple of important points embedded there: exogamy (intermarriage across community boundaries) and "activitities shared together". This is the kind of interdependence that enhances resilience. I think your post would make an excellent contribution to the Community Building wiki (https://peakprosperity.com/wiki/134/community-building). Would you be willing to add it there? Be well, do good work, and keep in touch... Don
…I would if I could figure out how to move around this site as well as many of you have. I'm certain I could if I investigated everything here at PP but I just haven't taken the time yet.
I'm still trying to figure out how you Folks box quotations in blue for all to see. I have been embarrassed to ask. Go figure too because I don't embarrass easily.
Thank you Don for sharing your kind words as they are always appreciated.
BOB
Bob,
Here's how I did the quote aboe. When you go to post or reply, you'll see the little bar above your text, beginning with "B I U" (moving your mouse over each item will show a "tooltip" that explains what it does.). In the middle is a largish right quote mark in blue. Start a new line, click on that, and what you type (or insert) will be shown as a quotation. Click it again to end the quotation.
I'm still trying to figure out how you Folks box quotations in blue for all to see.
...I would if I could figure out how to move around this site as well as many of you have. I'm certain I could if I investigated everything here at PP but I just haven't taken the time yet.Go to the top of the page, move your mouse over "Discuss" (it's in the light blue bar below the Peak Prosperity logo), then press Groups. You'll notice that you're now in the "Resilient Life" section. (Suggestion to the admin: it should be easier to find this section from the home page.) Look on the right side of the green title section, just under the "Search" box for "Wikis". Press that. The 3rd Wiki down is "Community Building" -- click that title. Read the nice initial page. At this point, I'm not sure -- it looks like you could just hit the "edit" item above the "Community Building" title and edit what you see (starting with a title for a new post. On the other hand, there's also the "Find & Create Wiki's box, which includes an item "Apply to be a Wiki Editor". I've applied, and asked for clarification.
thank you. Really, thank you.BOB