As long as Russia controls 30% of Germanys energy supply anything Poland has to say is irrelevant, Germany is checkmated. Russia doesn't have to expand, it's energy self sufficient and it's population is shrinking. The United States is showing the signs of it's fatigue after brawling with much of the planet for decades. All Putin has to do is to keep backing away and sooner of later the United States will literally and figuratively run out of gas and collapse. Putin is in a position were he might win this fight without taking, or even throwing, a punch. The question might be whether the Russians and Chinese will let us bleed out on the mat then divvy up our stuff or if they might help us back to our corner, take our gloves off, and offer us some foreign aid. It is entirely possible that the United States might not salvageable, in which case I don't think anyone is going to miss us.
John G
Is there a way to delete a double post?
[quote=jgritter]If, as it appears, the oligarchs on the financial side of the Deep State are running amok with no checks to their power or to their disordered thinking, then I find myself in the awkward position of hoping for a military coup in the United States. Colon Powell as Emperor is looking pretty good right now.
[/quote]
You know we must be close to rock bottom when "hey, that guy might not be such a bad supreme chancellor" starts to become appealing…/sarc
By chance or serendipity, the student I'm working with tonight is studying for his Modern World History exam, and one of the topics he has to know is the Final Partition of Poland.
This was a reminder to me that Poland was divided up between Russia, Prussia and Austria in 1795, in the last of three partitions. Again, Polish history regarding the expansionist tendencies of its neighbors, including Russia, goes back a lot further than the Cold War.
Bear in mind too that Prussia no longer exists. It started a fire that it could not put out.
Hugh,
If Russia has contracted to sell 20 to 33% of it's natural gas production to China, then the decision has already been made at a very high level to jettison Western Europe. My read of the tea leaves would seem to suggest that China and Russia looked each in the eye, Said "We have energy for sale" and "We have CASH to buy" and business was done. That that may leave Western Europe and much of the rest of the world to go f**k themselves in the dark while the global economic fallout settles is unfortunate, but probably not vindictive. It looks to me that Russia does not need to expand to the west as it may not be long before a humble Ukraine is begging hat in hand to be allowed to trade it's wheat for methane and Poles are pushing hand carts into Ukraine begging for agricultural work.
John G.
jgritter: I had not thought about this until your last post but Putin has an interesting option here. Once he solidifies a guaranteed income flow to Russia from the Chinese, what need does he have for Ukraine, or for that matter all of Western Europe? He has secured his military facilities in Crimea and he now appears to have found a ready market for Russian hydrocarbons.
If I were him, I would be tempted to cut off Ukraine from any Russian financial aid (which he appears to have already done) and send them scurrying to the European Union and the US for their financial support and energy supplies.
Thus adding another straw to our financial camel's back.
P.S. The Polish economy seems to be already heavily weighted towards agriculture. The question I see is: What happens when the Germans, French and Italians have no natural gas for their industry and home heating?
JT
Pulchera! Pax vobiscum.
Let us hope the present circumstances are not the beginning of the requiem for us all.
JT