" the problem will be of such a magnitude that it will
already be too late to do anything about it and the result will be a
lot of suffering, pain, and perhaps even a massive “die off” across the
globe."
Aren’t we there yet Set…? Strictly speaking, there are no solutions, only adaptation. The people who refuse to, or are unable to adapt will check out. Just look at all the people checking out in Iraq, Afghanistan, Zimbabwe, Palestine… some things you can’t adapt to I’m afraid (like an asteroid hit!).
Isn’t that life? Are we not being a bit too precious…?
Mike,I was thinking about the states with regards to being there and no, I don’t believe “we are there yet,” in this country at least, because if we were, more people would be more open to information such as that which is contained within the “Crash Course.”I think it will be painfully obvious when we get there and agree that it won’t be pretty.Even today, within the last week, without fuel and oil shortages, the area I live which is about 20 miles east of Los Angeles, there were a lot of murders and other violent crimes.When all out panic strikes the masses, I don’t think that there will be anyplace nearby that will be safe.I’ve taken precautions to the best of my ability, but most of my friends and all of my loved ones, who live in this same jungle, are totally unprepared. They are “Precious” to me, so I don’t think I’m being “too precious” by being concerned about their safety. I do appreciate and actually share your gloom, though.
It is important to recognize that we can learn something about our predicament by studying generational cycles. The authors of The Fourth Turning use history to show that we are moving into a Crisis Phase that would end around 2026. Our actions are predictable if history is a guide. The Fourth Turning was written in 1997 and correctly predicted the financial debacle we are now experiencing.
If we react properly we can avoid the worst of the crisis. However, this will have to be done as a society and not as tribes and/or small groups of well-armed fundamentalists holed up with lots of diesel and ammunition.
I’ve researched and thought about sustainable development for 15 years ( http://integraljournal.typepad.com/ ) and my conclusion is that none of our current institutions are able to handle a crisis or steer clear of a crisis. Current institutions train us to be specialists in our work and our belief systems. Through training or upbringing, most of us are indoctrinated. The key is to recognize this and act accordingly.
The number of people who will be aware that they have a problem with retirement is about to increase dramatically. Almost all of the defined benefit plans (I managed portfolios for two large state plans) will collapse over the next five years and I don’t think that the public will be willing to pony up the shortfalls. Realizing that we may have to work until well past normal retirement may cause people to search out new ideas for living well. I hope so.
A timely excerpt from Erich Fromm:
Right living is no longer the fulfillment of an ethical or religious demand. For the first time in history the Physical survival of the human race depends on a radical change of the human heart. However, a change of the human heart is possible only to the extent that drastic economic and social changes occur that give the human heart the chance for change and the courage and the vision to achieve it. [p.9&10 of To Have or To Be?]
So what do we do while we wait for the big fix? Have you a date for the big fix?
Maybe the worst of this crisis can be avoided but not it seems by nearly 7 billion humans.
Like you, I detest the well-armed fundamentalists.
Our group size is too big for us to act together for our own survival. If I am right then we need smaller groups of neighbours - whatever we call them. If we group by preference we will not capture the diversity that might give rise to workable neighbourhood solutions.
It’s my experience that smaller groups work much more efficiently than large ones. I’ve been on many committees. Large committees take forever to make decisions, and often the decision is compromised because too many people are involved. The classic example of this is government. Nothing gets planned until it’s needed now, everything’s reactionary instead of proactionary.
Our Transition Town works on a small steering committee of four. Not only do we quickly decide on what to do, we also act on it, usually within days… and things actually get done. It is by far the most efficient body I have ever been involved with, even though it isn’t perfect (or to this opinionated guy’s total liking!)
This is a very delayed response to Mike (Damnthematrix). You quoted me on "forced to subsistence" above. Let me clarify. Subsistence would be very welcome in the sense that it will flush out the ridiclulous consumerist binge that we’ve been on. I have no qualms about subsistence. I do, however, feel angered at the thought of force in this matter. It infuriates me to see the government continue to plunder the wealth of the people leaving them with fewer and fewer means to peacefully transition to subsistences.
I would also point out that there is a difference (at least in connotation) between subsistence and serfdom. Subsistence does not preclude freedom and liberty. Serfdom pretty much does.
Hi TT,
I deeply appreciate your kind response.
Just want you to know…I’m with you on the need for direction and action. I’m ready, very ready, to head down a path, collectively, if we can all come up with one. And, I agree that the time is short, very short. Maybe Chris will enlarge his "plan" soon, to include not only spreading the word of the CC, but also taking other actions. If we can thoroughly apply the principles of the CC in our individual lives, I think we will be on a good start. My family and I have been working steadily at it for the past year, and we’re feeling better and better about our ability to go through the changes and face the new challenges. In fact, we look forward to then!
(The only thing my family and I can’t come to grips with is the insistence by some that we own guns. Haven’t had one for 72 years, and its probably kept me out of more trouble than I could have gotten out of by having one.)
Again, thanks for your response. Have a great 2009.
Most people feel that you cannot totally blame killing on entertainment especially nowadays. However, it is widely believed that such influences can fuel something dangerous in a person that is already there. Raising children, especially a teenager, can sometimes require a payday loan. Today, it seems every teenager owns or at least wants a cell phone, an MP3 player, and the latest trends out there. Raising a teen is a huge task for almost every parent. But should we give in to their every demand and support all their “wants?” Is getting a payday loan and providing them with everything they want, the way to go? Or should we teach teens the appropriate ways to earn what they want? I found an article that suggests ways a teen can make their own money by doing simple things like shoveling snow.
Click here to read more on: http://personalmoneystore.com/moneyblog/2009/01/14/raising-teens-with-the-help-of-payday-loans-and-maybe-medication/
I’d like to say that one of the things that I most appreciate about this site is i’s relative lack of bias - at least on the part of the site organizers. I think this lack of bias makes it more appealing to a wider array of people and helps prevent a "bubble" of ideas to form in which masses of people blindly align behind a single idea because it sounds good and is popular.
I think the understanding and intellectual aspects of the site are its greatest strengths, and I couldn’t agree with you more that more widespread understanding is required for the transitions we face.
As you hint at, the majority of people understand inflation as "rising prices" or "bad." But most people don’t seem to understand causation or potential unintended consequences of actions. I am reminded of the primary rule of "Economics in One Lesson" by Henry Hazlitt, an Austrian economist: "The art of economics consists in looking not
merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the
consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups."
When people have the intellectual curiosity and capacity to dissect potential policies in the way suggested by Hazlitt, then I think our future will be much brighter. At this stage though, we are still in a world where most people seem to say "I hope Obama can fix this crazy economy." Until people shoulder personal responsibility for at least understanding the facts at hand, there is no way that they will take personal responsibility for actions required. In my search on the web, this site seems to offer the greatest sense of hope of creating understanding where the mass media creates consuptive entertainment.
Thank you, Chris, and I wish you and your family a happy and healthy New Year.
Chris,
Other than the entire "Crash Course" material, this was the best entry I have seen. The kudos others have mentioned are entirely deserved.
As a fellow scientist (well, a surgeon, but I guess that’s close enough), I greatly appreciate your measured approach. Your doctor-patient analogy is quite apt. Until there is understanding, there can be no plan. And, in this situation, unlike the doctor-patient analogy, understanding has to dawn on more than one individual (or, a few more, accounting for patient family members), before a plan can be set and realized. 8-10% of the population, or perhaps slightly more, seems about right, to me.
Anyway, I don’t come now to offer any specific suggestions, just to offer my opinion that your approach to date seems entirely correct. Keep up the good work, and know that we will continue ours!
I totally agree. I have this book and it is an excellent resource containing very good information about all aspects of not only ethanol production but also about permaculture systems that can create both food and fuel without fossil fuel derived inputs. I was once convinced by the mass media hype that corn-based ethanol was not sustainable. Well, in fact, some not-so-mainstream media hype also. Suffice it to say, read that book, check out the videos of Dave Blume speaking about the topic and start thinking "sustainable local/regional economies". I think it really is a travesty to ignore this book and the valuable ideas - let’s fire the oil companies by boycotting their toxic waste by-product (gasoline) and start unplugging from the matrix, one farm/homestead/household at a time.
