Why Greece Is The Precursor To The Next Global Debt Crisis

 

I have no doubt about it, Time2help.  But the more I see/observe of the process of collapse, the more it seems to me in my opinion to be a decades-long "instant"…  And it also seems to me that to the extent TPTB can manage to draw it out and "gradualize" the process, they also minimize dissent/blowback – because the process is so incremental, there are too few points at which people might be shocked into pushing back.  The gradual bef#%kening of the world comes to seem "normal"…  Ask kids who were born in 2000 – they'll likely tell you that the current state of affairs is just how it's always been.  Implying:  always will be.  

Not only are we bad at exponential functions, we are also bad at long-term perspective.

Just one dude's opinion, naturally.  And I'll reiterate:  now that I've gone out on a limb with my "prediction," things will utterly collapse by the end of the week.   <smile>  

Viva – Sager

Not to quibble, but according to the OECD, Greek tax revenues total 65 B euros (incl. VAT and social security payments) and its public debts are now 340+B euros, which puts the ratio at well over 5… http://www.oecd.org/ctp/tax-policy/revenue-statistics-and-consumption-tax-trends-2014-greece.pdf
 http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/greece

Also, the more important number may well be total external debt which I mention, as there is only so much national income to service public and private debt.

What nobody measures (because it's difficult) is the actual wealth generated by a nation minus the external and future pension-healthcare costs that have been pushed into the future.  By this measure, every nation-state on the planet is likely bankrupt, with the exception of Bhutan (just a guess; slight exaggeration here…)

From James Howard Kunstler's blog:
Greek Pudding

[quote=JHKunstler]"The proof of the pudding is in the eating, the old saw goes. This one, alas, is a mélange of several old shit sandwiches bound in a liaison of subterfuge and seasoned with political absurdities. Having been fooled in this bistro before, citizen-patrons leave the table resigned to yet another bout of food poisoning as the music of universal upchuck rings across the European Union from Helsinki to Lisbon.

What is on display more brightly and clearly than ever, though, is the utter fakery of international banking. The players have lost faith in their own shenanigans. They simply go through the motions now awaiting the political fallout, which is to say the revolt of the people who can still do arithmetic. So, now Greece can supposedly expect another $90Billion-equivalent in new loans on top of the $350Billion-equivalent already racked up. That’s rich. The loan repayment schedule must look like a map of Middle Earth.

Most perplexing — especially for those on summer hiatus in which time seems to be suspended — is the fact that the rescue package will take weeks, perhaps months, to gin up while Greece is right now so utterly paralyzed in bankruptcy that no goods can move, no bills can be paid, and the economy cannot deliver the necessities of daily life. The old refrain, “your check is in the mail” may not be so reassuring to folks who haven’t eaten for three days. Personally, I would expect the gasoline bombs to be flying around Syntagma Square before the middle of the week.

Has anyone noticed the eerie paucity of news emanating from the other hard-luck nations of the EU, namely Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland? The money hole that these deadbeats are in makes Greece look like a dimple in the sand. What, I wonder, is the message to them from the Greek negotiation melodrama? (Lend more money to real estate developers to build more houses and condos that will never be sold? That’ll work!) No, the entire EU debt fiasco harks back to the original meaning of “ring around the rosie” — a theme song of the Black Death. The eventual implosion of the European Union, and the banking system hugging its face vampire squid style, will be the financial equivalent of the Black Death. Kingdoms will fall and social systems will be turned upside down.

The agonizing wait for that outcome is obviously fraying the nerves of all concerned to the degree that all their exertions seem like little more than tragic and pointless exercises in futility — for instance, the terms arrived at in last weekend’s negotiations. Nobody has a shred of faith that they can or will be carried out. In effect, what they’ve done is put together a Potemkin framework allowing them to go just give up for a month or so and go on vacation.

That would, of course, set things up for a mighty financial convulsion in the autumn — history’s favorite season for ruin — when all the ministers and their factotums venture back to the dismal realities they left fermenting at the office. Of all the many things apt to happen, we can count at least on the current Greek government falling and a failure of Greece to make any gesture of repayment in their just-negotiated loan schedule. That would leave the “Troika” (the EU, the ECB, and the IMF) with zero credibility and initiate the epochal widespread repudiation of the entire EU loan structure — in short, the collapse of Europe.

That wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the world, but it would be the end of nearly seventy-year period of peace, prosperity, and stability. The sorting-out would be epic. The standard of living across Europe would sink to the level of the 1830s. The fundamentals of banking and currency would have to be rebuilt from ashes. More nations will break up into smaller units. Western intellectual life would suffer immense shock as all the certainties of the Enlightenment project seemed to go up in a vapor of insolvency and political upheaval. You have to even wonder whether Europe could defend itself against an onrushing Jihad.

But these are admittedly gloomy thoughts for a morning so early in summer. Myself, I’m going to shop for an outfit to wear to Diddy’s annual party in the Hamptons. Coonskin caps may be oddly coming back in style as people all over America try to emulate Donald Trump and the furry creature that lives on the top of his head. Something tells me that the ladies will not be buying many Hillary-style pantsuits. Wouldn’t it be cunning if Diddy’s caterer came up with something like miniature Greek Pudding bites? That would bring a real frisson to the doings, something to chat about besides the marketing genius of Kim Kardashian."[/quote]

This is the part of Kunstler's piece that got my attention. 

Western intellectual life would suffer immense shock as all the certainties of the Enlightenment project seemed to go up in a vapor of insolvency and political upheaval. 
Would this lead to a rebalancing of the two hemispheres of the brain which was damaged by the Enlightenment?  This whole finance thing is the result of excessive model use. No Harriet, the map is not the terrain. 

Courtesy ZeroHedge:
https://youtu.be/WpE_xMRiCLE

As ever, a great read from Charles. Thank you. I'm vascillating between wondering if this is merely Round 1 of a 10-Round bout & the Greeks will have the last laugh, and thinking that Europe deserves everything it gets for stitching up the Greeks in the first place (via Goldman Sachs).
 
My news frontpage is saturated with gloomy Greek news, my inbox stuffed full with similarly themed updates about the indignancy of Greece's continued debt servitude and future misery of its people. I'm all Greeced out at the moment.
 
So I decided to go with a brief interlude of levity. Because all those tears have to dry sometime, yes? That's right - resilience through humour.
 
 
Some years ago a small rural town in Spain twinned with a similar town in Greece. The mayor of the Greek town visited the Spanish town. When he saw the palatial mansion belonging to the Spanish mayor, he wondered aloud how on earth he could afford such a house. The Spaniard replied: ‘You see that bridge over there? The EU gave us a grant to construct a two-lane bridge, but by building a single lane bridge with traffic lights at either end, I could build this place.’
The following year the Spaniard visited the Greek town. He was simply amazed at the Greek mayor's house: gold taps, marble floors, diamond doorknobs, it was marvellous. When he asked how he’d raised the money to build this incredible house, the Greek mayor said: ‘You see that bridge over there?’
The Spaniard replied: ‘No.’
 
As of this week, all new Euros are to be printed on Greece-proof paper.
 
What are the first three letters of the Greek alphabet? I.O.U.
 
I'm investing in a new currency...the George Foreman Euro. Same as the other Euro, but no Greece.
 
Alex Tsipras has said that Greece will "Bounce Back". Just like its cheques (or "checks" if you speak American).

" By this measure, every nation-state on the planet is likely bankrupt"
It’s only money !
Introduce a New Euro which equals 10 Old Euros. Wages, goods and services get paid in New Euros while debt, savings, pensions and other liabilities stay in the old Euros. Sorted. No longer bankrupt.
Ed

I actually based the Greek revenue/debt ratio (3) on your numbers above [120/375]
The ratio=2 for the EU and ratio=6 for the USA was based on earlier perusal of Eurostat and US treasury data.

I rechecked the numbers, since the OECD tax numbers you referenced suggest a far smaller percentage of GDP is in the public sector than I am used to thinking (50%). The numbers (harder to find than I would have thought) for Greece according to Eurostat:

  Revenue   Expenditure  
  € Billions %GDP € Billions %GDP
2009 92.000 38.7 128.300 54.0
2010 92.912 41.1 118.031 52.2
2011 90.991 43.8 112.212 54.0
2012 88.723 45.7 105.594 54.4
2013 87.120 47.8 109.618 60.1
2014 82.015 45.8 88.371 49.3
See also: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3217494/5759905/KS-EK-13-002-EN.PDF/f4fbc960-e8a8-42cc-b98b-d20678a271fe http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=gov_10a_main&lang=en

My wife and I had dinner last night over at some friends’ house, a couple who’d just gotten back from a visit to family in Portugal. The wife is Portuguese, and they stayed with her father, who has owned a small farm there for ages. He’s likely a bit better off than most. She said that throughout the visit, her father was obsessed with the news out of Greece. I’d suggested to her a year or two ago that if her family had any substantial money left in the banks in Portugal, they might want to consider moving it out of the country. My guess is that if he hasn’t already, he’s doing that now. The “post-resolution” news coming out of Greece regarding their banks should scare any bank shareholder or depositor in the PIIGS, and a few more besides.

Apparently, capital controls will likely become a continuing marathon for Greek banks. The fate of investors foolish enough to still own Greek bank shares and savings of those foolish enough to still (theoretically) have large amounts of money on deposit in Greek banks is seriously in doubt. According to Reuters, the Germans and others are strongly resisting the notion that members of the happy Eurozone family are responsible for re-capitalizing the Greek banks. But forcing Greek depositor bail-ins as occurred in Cyprus might prevent the Greek economy from even being able to function, let alone recover, (and, IMO, holds further serious implications for anyone with a brain and a bank account anywhere in the Eurozone).

Germany has a long and colorful history of burning witches and heretics. One of my friends in Germany let me know we’re about to arrive near Constance on the Bodensee there just in time for the fabulous 600 year anniversary gala celebration of the Burning of the Heretics in Constance. It happened back in those lazy, crazy days of summer 1415, before they had the internet and TV for distraction. Witch burnings are always great fun to attend until the authorities suddenly turn to start asking exactly what you were doing the last time the moon was full.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/26/us-eurozone-greece-banks-idUSKCN0Q005P20150726

“There are more than 20 billion euros of such deposits in Greece’s four main banks, dwarfing the roughly 3 billion euros of bonds the banks have issued. Imposing a loss, something the Greek government has repeatedly denied any planning for, would be controversial, not least because much of this money is held by small Greek companies rather than wealthy individuals.

‘This is not like Cyprus where you can say these are just Russian oligarchs,’ said an insolvency lawyer familiar with Greece. ‘It’s the very community everyone is hoping will resuscitate Greece, namely the corporates. You’ll end up depriving them of their cash.'”

I’m sure that this is nothing that a few hundred meetings, a few hundred new “mechanisms”, and a few trillion spanking new Euros can’t fix. No wonder US Treasuries continue to rise in value, floating hopefully upward on the last weakening gasps of hot air emanating from the Myth of the Prudent Banker. The Myth, now embodied by Yellen, Merkel and Schaeuble, is ever vigilant, ever faithful, spreading the Gospel of balanced budgets, austerity, and as always, strict monetary discipline worldwide, at least for anyone who’s not a VSIP – very systemically important person, Too Big to Fail, Too Tubby to Flop. Let’s see – where is that monetary discipline? Only in economies being forced to fail? Hmmmmmmm, can that be right?….

  1.  

I actually based the Greek revenue/debt ratio (3) on your numbers above [120/375]
The ratio=2 for the EU and ratio=6 for the USA was based on earlier perusal of Eurostat and US treasury data.

I rechecked the numbers, since the OECD tax numbers you referenced suggest a far smaller percentage of GDP is in the public sector than I am used to thinking (50%). The numbers (harder to find than I would have thought) for Greece according to Eurostat:

Revenue Expenditure
  € Billions %GDP € Billions %GDP
2009 92 38.7 128.3 54
2010 92.912 41.1 118.031 52.2
2011 90.991 43.8 112.212 54
2012 88.723 45.7 105.594 54.4
2013 87.12 47.8 109.618 60.1
2014 82.015 45.8 88.371 49.3
See also: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3217494/5759905/KS-EK-13-002-EN.PDF/f4fbc960-e8a8-42cc-b98b-d20678a271fe http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=gov_10a_main&lang=en

One of the things I try to explain to people is, government workers really don't pay taxes, nor do they add to the GDP. As an individual they do pay taxes but as far as the government is concerned they add to the deficit/debt. A government worker making 100k, but paying 35k in taxes, is really a 65k debt that can only be covered by taxes from private/non-govt workers. So as the government gets bigger, the private sector must shrink but their tax burden must increase, or the state must borrow from future private sector workers. They also can not add to GDP, since any money they spend is money that would have been spent by private sector tax payers or future private sector tax payers. Government spending needs to be cut in half, at least, if not more. But that won't happen until the house of cards collapses, and may be not even then.