Bheithir, I don’t believe Heffe was being insulting at all. Offering a contrasting opinion is healthy debate. I personally think that Chris’ views may be on the extreme side but if you’ve ever watched one of his presentations you’ll realise that he welcomes justifiable arguments in contrast to his own.
[quote=Poet]
Think of it like a tall tree that falls down in the forest.
Poet
[/quote]
Well said, Poet.
[quote=heffe]After four plus years of visiting this site, I can now see that extreme emotional attachements exist towards the idea of collapse.
After promoting the idea of collapse, your ego does not allow you to admit fault; your too stubborn to admit that collapse may not happen as you expect it.
The thing is, there are unknown variables lying within your hypothesis of collapse. These unknowns mostly rely on human decision making, as newly found environmental triggers will illicit new found behaviors.
The profound amount of certainty that exists within the members here demonstrates they are essentially ‘hoping’ that collapse comes soon.
Its not that you want the world to collapse, its that you dont want to be wrong, you don’t want to appear foolish for having accepted a hypothesis that turned out to be incorrect.
I know we are in a state of collapse, what I don’t agree with in regards to this site is the degree and speed at which you expect collapse. This ‘collapse’ is a fundamental changing of our culture and understandings, it will span decades, perhaps continuing for many more decades after your death.
My goal is fostering stronger community resilience, by supporting local farmers, as well as, sharing information on economics, game theory, psychology, anthropology, societal evolution, and the basics of energy extraction/conversion/useage. For the last five years all of my electricity has come from 100% renewable sources, I’ve begun farming indoor crops like wheatgrass, spinach, cilantro, and parsley, and sought means of sustaining myself through whatever conditions present themselves to me.
What I do not do, is sit around, preaching the collapse with absolute, religious certainty. I merely express the possibilities that exist, and hope to better my self interest through bettering my community. I hope you all will do the same.
Heffe
[/quote]
Heffe,
Any particular reason you consistently paint everyone here with the same brush, assuming you understand what they are thinking and how they are thinking when, in fact, a tremendous diversity of opinions have been expressed, discussed, and debated here on the nature and form of collapse? I think if you weren’t so quick to jump to conclusions and took the time to peruse the archives in depth, you’d see that your assumptions are a bit hasty and in error. Perhaps you’d gain more knowledge and wisdom by listening a bit more and preaching a bit less.
P.S. It’s "elicit", not "illicit".
[quote=ao]Heffe,
Any particular reason you consistently paint everyone here with the same brush, assuming you understand what they are thinking and how they are thinking when, in fact, a tremendous diversity of opinions have been expressed, discussed, and debated here on the nature and form of collapse? I think if you weren’t so quick to jump to conclusions and took the time to peruse the archives in depth, you’d see that your assumptions are a bit hasty and in error. Perhaps you’d gain more knowledge and wisdom by listening a bit more and preaching a bit less.
P.S. It’s "elicit", not "illicit".
[/quote]
+1
I do think heffe does have a good point that people preparing for "collapse" can develop an emotional interest in that outcome, and I think that’s something everyone here should reflect upon if they haven’t already. Where heffe went wrong was throwing it around as a blanket assumption on all, as opposed to presenting it as a point to consider or at least as a question to the host and/or the audience. Just because we take precautions for a collapse doesn’t mean we necessarily develop a strong attachment to the outcome, or that we consider it a certainty, or that if it occurs that it will all happen in one quick, fell swoop.
Anyway regarding the article itself, I have to say I winced a tiny bit at seeing it go more into politics than CM usually does… not because it didn’t assign responsibility where it belongs (it did a good job at that), but more because I’m finding many people I know still as politically partisan as ever. But there really isn’t a way to address the situation and narrative without mentioning the political players involved in creating it, and I have to say I’m happy and pleasantly surprised to see there aren’t any political partisan arguments popping up here.
- Nick
I’ve been reading here for a few years and I have similar observations to heffe.Although my understaning of the factors of collapse, depression, etc, is very limited, I do sense an overall bias towards giving more credence to events that confirm the possiblity of these things happening and happening soon. I look at the headings of the daily digest and see this or the topics of most threads. Good news stories are seldom dwelled on here.
Of course, the belief in the likelihood that the SHTF is a given, otherwise we wouldn’t be hanging around here, right? But I would guess that there are observations and indicators that warrant being published and discussed, even if non-confirmatory of previously held ideas; but I don’t read much of that here. I’m not saying that everyone sticks to their guns, but I just don’t seem to see much non-confirmatory talk in the discussions I’ve read.
I’ve also thought that significant events, such as the Gulf oil spill and the Japan nuclear situation, tend to be discussed at great length as if there is an expectation of greater catastrophe. It reminds me of the tendency of news reports these days (at least in Australia) to publish ongoing counts of, say, the number of deaths in an earthquake with a seemingly dramatic appeal to the event and almost as if to say "Keep going up - let’s make this a record!" The point of this example is obviously not to say that we want more people to die - it’s to say that worsening negative consequences tend to be talked up.
These are not statements about particular people here - opinions clearly vary, as shown by many great emotive threads. It’s just a general observation by someone who thinks this site and its users are very cluey about the three E’s and what it may mean for me and my family.
Don’t hit me too hard.
John
First, of course, thank you Chris for a fantastic article. At the risk of heaping too much praise, I’m really glad to have someone like you that can sift through all of the data and trends, connect the dots and present such articles that are insightful, balanced and full of clarity.Regardarding the "collapse"; this is a rich topic and I’ll leave the fray to others. But, I would provide a few tangential thoughts.
First, there are things that are "different" this time as history does repeat, but events always have a certain unique flavor as well. Same here. We don’t need complex theories or racking of our brains to understand what is happening, how and when. Sure, if you want details and "to the minute", then you’re dreaming as no one has such knowledge. That said, the fundamentals of what is occurring right now has many precedents. As Chris mentioned and I’m glad he’s familiar with "FerFAL", one only needs to look at Argentina on how their event happened a decade ago. What is especially interesting is that their event also mirrored many other events that happened to other countries and at other times.
I don’t know when the "collapse" is going to happen (I keep putting that word in quotes, because I do not believe it is a singular event), but the series of events that will mark the time period that will accuartely describe it must be close, due to the variety of dimensions and factors we all keep reading about in our non-mainstream news and analysis sources.
Here’s what is more interesting in my mind and that I have strong conviction; once the end-game events of the collapse start, the process will acclereate and slingshot into amazing speed. Doubt this at your peril. Look to not only other’s experiences or countries, think about your own events in your country where some event accelerated things to a breakneck speed and crashed things into a wall immediately and without time to prepare (if you weren’t already prepared).
One final thought that I also feel strongly about; that is — be careful what you wish for, as you may not have a clue to the reality that comes with it. I don’t want to be overly critical, but the people that are all "prepared" and ready for the "zombie apocalypse" are in for a rude awakening. If and when a more violent version of the collapse takes place (which, by the way and unfortunately, I believe is a 100% guaranteed outcome at least in pockets and at least for a period of time — again, read your history, I simply can’t believe those analysts that think it will be orderly), you will not like what you see. What I mean is that it won’t be a boy scout trip or a camping adventure like some "survivalist" types are thinking. That’s not reality and how it will actually happen. Again, pick up FerFAL’s book from Amazon, it is worth the money and your time to read it if you are interested in this topic. Things will get ugly, very scary and not be fun. Unless you are a sociopath, sadist or some other type of person that has real emotional problems, this is not an outcome anyone of us want to experience. Trust me. Those that have been confronted with elments of a society collapsing and the anarchy and violence is spawns can attest this is not something you should think that you are "ready" for and would welcome. It doesn’t matter how much "gold, guns, goods" you have. I’m not saying you shouldn’t have those things, you definitely should. Just maintain perspective. It won’t be a "Mad Max" existence or "back to stone age" scenario nonsense, but it will get really scary for a period of time (which will vary widely based on your geography).
I’ll wrap by saying that Chris’ advice on reaching out to your community and doing whatever preparedness you can do for yourself and them is a great way of approaching all of this. We are not alone in all this and we’re not going to be, whether we like it or not or if it’s good for us or not. So, the clearer we are on this concept and focus our preparations at least in part on the community, then the better we all will be for it.
… articles you’ve written Chris, IMHO.
By pointing out the inconsistencies between words and actions, the breakdown of the rule of law, the ties between oil prices and recessions, etc. I think you hit it out of the park.
We can debate when or how a collapse will occur, but the fact that it will occur can hardly be argued.
Also, I don’t think it hurts Chris’s credibility when he calls Obama or any other politician out on deceptive or evasive language.
SS
PS. Poet, the tree thing was 
.
I’ve watched Damon Vrabel’s videos on the ponzi nature of our monetary system that has made the events of the past 100 years make sense. Curiously, he recommended this site in his final remarks in which he stated he didn’t think anything could be done to awaken the people to the train wreak in our future. Curious because I don’t see any mention of THE problem confronting we the people.
Does anyone remember the phrase, "until you change the way money works, you change nothing." I first heard it from Mike Rupert. At the time I didn’t realize how right he is; it took Damon’s videos to make clear to me why we’re in this prediciment.
While I can appreciate Chris’ efforts here, the real problem is that banks have been given the power to create money. That’s one way new money enters the system; banks create new money out of thin air when they make a loan. The FED does the same thing when they "buy" treasury debt, however, an interest component is still created.
There’s the problem. The only way for new money to enter the system is to create debt. But that means there must always be credit worthy individuals to borrow new money. When those individuals aren’t around, the FED steps in to create new money (those wishing to end the FED should realize that under a debt money system, without the FED - game over).
Austerity, in any debt money system is a sure road to bankruptcy. It’s impossible given the fact that new money can only be created with new debt.
So, why are all these smart people, all over the world, talking about reducing government spending? It’s mathmatically impossible when every single dollar must be borrowed from a bank with interest attached?
There is an answer and Damon makes it clear. If you can find his vids, it will suddenly make sense.
I was surprised at heffe’s comments until I saw that he was 24 years old.
[quote=jonesb.mta]I was surprised at heffe’s comments until I saw that he was 24 years old.
[/quote]
Jonesb.Mta
Well, the elderly can also count amongst their ranks those not insignificant many who are arrogant, intractable, and stuck in their ways. Aren’t they one reason that we’re in the predicament we’re in?
Poet
Maybe this time Chris deliberately mentioned a political event because our political system is no longer working. We don’t really have leaders in Washington anymore, just demagogues, pandering to their constituencies.
They are giving us platitudes - because to talk about what is really happening and what they are or are not doing would not appeal to most voters. Some will say that the exception is Ron Paul. Maybe they are right, but what are his chances of being our next president?
The media panders to us in the same way. If the MSM would cover the same news that the CM Daily Digest covers, our democracy would still function. Instead, the airwaves are controlled by makers and sellers of SUV’s and our political parties are controlled by big banks and billionaires.
Poet,
I agree 100%. The young haven’t been voting long enough to have caused any of this. My comment was pointing out that he hasn’t been around to watch gas go from $.10 a gallon to $3.84 a gallon and doesn’t realize how fast things are moving now, comparatively speaking. Obviously I could go on and on with the changes that have happened in my lifetime but most young people don’t really care and the older ones already know or should already know. Heffe is to be commended on his having enough sense to realize that something is wrong, he sure wasn’t taught that in a government school. My generation has completely screwed his generation and possibly more generations to come. It amazes me how many young people work for Ron Paul, their education doesn’t point them in that direction. I’ll still vote for Ron Paul as I have since he first ran for President on the Libertarian ticket.
Good to know you and have you in the forums. I went over to the LP since the 2008 election, after I was able to finally "get it". RP isn’t just a candidate or even a good one, he’s literally one of the very very few politicians that isn’t morally/ethically/constitutionaly bankrupt.
It saddens and disheartens me to see how society always looks for that knight on a white horse — some "leader" to bring us out of our misery. Much (almost all?) that is wrong with things is due to a lack of leadership and the results of the same of the last handful of decades. But, that’s not because we’re missing some mythical heros or "great presidents". It’s because everyone has a leadership role in society — as a parent, as a teacher, as a family member, as a police officer, as a doctor, etc. — and much of that has sadly been taken for granted and not been done by too many and too often.
I hate that people think so lowly of themselves that there’s always the need of this greater-than-us hero that is needed. Yes, RP will get my vote, support and dollars. Beause not that he’s a hero (which, actually, given the decades-long struggle he’s had in the Washinton cesspool does qualify him as a real American Hero), but because he’s "one of the good guys". Which one can always hope we’ll get to a time when a worthwhile majority of the population will again exercise greater leadership and be "heros". That time is here and the stage is set, I believe.
[quote=m111ark]I’ve watched Damon Vrabel’s videos on the ponzi nature of our monetary system that has made the events of the past 100 years make sense. Curiously, he recommended this site in his final remarks in which he stated he didn’t think anything could be done to awaken the people to the train wreak in our future. Curious because I don’t see any mention of THE problem confronting we the people.
Does anyone remember the phrase, "until you change the way money works, you change nothing." I first heard it from Mike Rupert. At the time I didn’t realize how right he is; it took Damon’s videos to make clear to me why we’re in this prediciment.
While I can appreciate Chris’ efforts here, the real problem is that banks have been given the power to create money. That’s one way new money enters the system; banks create new money out of thin air when they make a loan. The FED does the same thing when they "buy" treasury debt, however, an interest component is still created.
There’s the problem. The only way for new money to enter the system is to create debt. But that means there must always be credit worthy individuals to borrow new money. When those individuals aren’t around, the FED steps in to create new money (those wishing to end the FED should realize that under a debt money system, without the FED - game over).
Austerity, in any debt money system is a sure road to bankruptcy. It’s impossible given the fact that new money can only be created with new debt.
So, why are all these smart people, all over the world, talking about reducing government spending? It’s mathmatically impossible when every single dollar must be borrowed from a bank with interest attached?
There is an answer and Damon makes it clear. If you can find his vids, it will suddenly make sense.
[/quote]
Hey m111ark,
Just as a heads up, most of us who have been following CM.com for a while know about Damon Vrabel quite well. He was a regular here for years. He posted under the name ‘strabes’, and his input was always valuable. It’s no surprise that his videos have likewise been helpful. We miss him 'round these parts.
…been there done that bullshit. Heffe, it’s the math, the numbers, that you are missing my little Brother. Hope is no strategy, it isn’t. Let me be blunt, for your own good, and I hope it gives you pause for some concern. A collapse is reality, we have hit that fork in the road, and as Yogi Berra once said, "when you reach it, take it". It isn’t that easy. The road right or left leads to some horrible place. We have not prepared for an energy crisis in this country. This energy is in short supply, and is an absolute requirement for our country. When, not if the free flow of oil is interrupted then this country will call on its young bucks, like it or not, to defend our way of living until we do something. Whether you have served or not you may want to prepare. Get an edge, be ahead of the herd because, well, it may just help you.
Heffe, this could be a long talk but I am done for the day.
Heffe, take a look at a world map, and tell me what you see.
Heffe. this is serious shizit, and my focus is to hear these folks on this site, and apply everything I haven’t thought of or need too. We are not wishing for a collapse you knucklehead (not meant to antagonize), but numbers don’t lie… Respectfully Given…BOB
I apologize for picking what is surely the most trivial of nits, but the Attorney General of The United States of whom Chris speaks is Eric H. Holder, Jr., not Erik Holder.
The thing that really strikes me was my own emotional reaction to having my own name confused with one of the most senior ranking officials in the United States government. When I was a kid, that would have been an honor. Suffice it to say that "honored" was not my emotional reaction I experienced to seeing my own name confused with that of Atty. General Holder’s.
In a post-NDAA world, I think I’ll refrain from saying what emotion I actually experienced…
Erik
Don’t be too hard on yourself, Heffe… I’m 46 and still seem to piss everyone off every so often. 
In fact, most of the times I’ve done so on this forum have been precisely because I agree with many of your arguments, and find that some of the users here are so wrapped up in their Doomer stories that they can no longer see reality in front of them.
So I do think that several of your points have merit. But rather than dwell on the negative, I’d rather focus on offering some constructive suggestions for how you might find the discussions that are more in line with your thinking.
First, I want to point out that Chris Martenson is one of the most brilliant people I’ve ever met - a true genius. If you look carefully, you’ll see that Chris’ writings are generally very level-headed. He and his family are not "Doomers", and they have not lost touch with reality. The Martensons have found that a lifestyle focused on resiliency has benefits regardless of whether major social breakdowns ever occur or not. They are superbly prepared for the worst, but they don’t let "Doomsday Thinking" interfere with enjoying full and rewarding lives. True, Chris uses words like "Collapse" frequently, and I have to confess that I find that habit a little annoying myself. But I am confident that he aims only to get through to people that an outright collapse is an entirely possible scenario. Whereas most people dismiss such ideas as nonsense, it’s easy to see how Chris could be drawn to empahsis of how bad the worst case could actually be.
My point in all this is that I get the sense you may be mentally blending together Chris’ perspective with the attitudes you see in the discussion forums. In my not-so-humble opinion, the public discussion forums on this site have become a favorite hang-out for Doomers and Conspiracy Theory afficionados. They have their right to their opinions, and the site posting guidelines allow them to banter about this stuff all day long provided that they are polite to one another. For this reason, I and several other former regulars here have given up on posting in the public forums, and participate exclusively in the forum discussions behind the paywall, where a much smaller percentage of participants seem inclined to bring up conspiracies and sky-is-falling doomsday discussions in every other post. I made an exception for this post, because I think you brought up a very important issue and wanted to offer some ideas on where to find more informed discussion. Again, my suggestion is to purchase enrolled membership if you can afford it. I find the discussions on the other side of the paywall to be far more informed, but your mileage may vary.
I also want to suggest that strong viewpoints (and Chris’ views certainly qualify) are of greatest value when considered in direct contrast to opposing views. Chris really stands out in my mind as a champion of enlightened learning in this regard - rather than treating smart people with differing views as enemies or "competitors", Chris does everything he can to embrace relationships with them. For example, enrolled members are treated to a weekly podcast with Chris and Mish Shedlock, a blogger who is as devout and outspoken a deflationist as Chris is an inflationist. The list of other blogs on the homepage also includes several where you can find opposing views.
Heffe, if you’re not already familliar with iTulip.com, I strongly suggest you check out Eric Janszen’s work. Janszen sees many of the same issues Chris does, but comes to very different conclusions. He tends to dismiss "collapse" scenarios as infinitesimally small risks not worth worrying about, and does an outstanding job of refuting the assertions of John Williams and the other hyperinflationists who constantly cite what has happened in Zimbabwe and Argentia, without bothering to acknowledge or consider how the marked differences in circumstances between those countries and the USA tend to discredit U.S. hyperinflation predictions.
My point is, I don’t think any of these guys is "right". Janszen has a view that calls for many very painful years of very high inflation, but no hyperinflation or currency collapse event. He’s a smart guy who makes good arguments. Chris and John Williams are smart guys, too, and also make excellent arguments. To really understand this stuff, you have to absorb as many different perspectives as you can.
I think you’ll find it useful to consciously separate Chris’ views from the consensus attitude found in the forums, and also to read Eric Janszen’s work for what in my opinion is probably a "too far in the other direction" viewpoint - one that doesn’t anticipate any collapse scenario, but rather a long and slow inflationary depression in which societal systems continue to function normally, for the most part.
All the best,
Erik
I note that Chris lives in Western Mass.
As a lawyer I’m beginning to wonder if I can live in America any longer. I don’t recognize it. I may not be Clarence Darrow, but I know when the Constitution is trashed. The National Defense Authorization Act is an obamination. And to think 84 out of 100 Senators voted for it? It’s impossible! But it happened. Patriot Acts I and II made it possible for government to do whatever they wanted to do to any of us – individually or as a people. What the NDAA was about – I have no idea – except very broad control.
I’ve been through Chris’s course three times now. I get it. It makes sense. it’s helps explain quite a few bad decisions in my life. But I do not feel good about spending my remaining years in fear, watching the government slowing take over all. Chris puts it nicely, as he always does, as a disconnect between narrative and deeds. But the deeds, or the right to do the deeds, are becoming more Orwellian than Orwell imagined.
And i can’t see any trend to cut it back. Dems and Repubs are the same. No one gets it.
I don’t want to "run" somewhere else, but I can’t watch the news any longer. And it doesn’t seem rational to retire to a rural farm and just wait for the Barbarians to show up at MY gates. What is happening politically, spawning from failed political ecconomics, is so like the rise of authoritarian fascist nations that it can’t be over looked.
I don’t want to overreact. But I don’t want to miss the last train out of Berlin, either. Or put less dramatically, I don’t want to plow my remaining life and capital into a country that is heading for very nasty times. And yet, where else does one go?
Zero
Zerocoupon
I noticed that you enrolled today. Just in case you have not been lurking in the forums awhile, I want to reassure you that some people here have views similar to yours. Government repression scares me much more than economic turmoil. You are not crazy and you are not alone. Welcome to the forums.
Travlin
…a diverse group of people, sharing life’s experience, Erik has a perspective that is his, and his alone. No more valid than anyone else but relevant.
Erik spoke of Eric (not to be confused with Erik and certainly not Rik) Janszen. Janszen wrote a book that I have read twice, and reference often, (The Postcatastrophe Economy, Rebuilding America and Avoiding The Next Bubble). Note the word as he wrote it, "Postcatastrophe". Mr. Janszen commented that if you think the Great Recession (of 2008) was bad, just keep doing what you’re doing and it will end up much worse. Well it IS much worse. That’s not a negative, doomsday, sitting here all day revelation. Just look at a world map.
So, to get to my point, we have done NOTHING to change things since 2008, if anything, we have done all the wrong things. So I guess you have to decide if a Great Depression or a new Greatest Depression is a bad thing. Mr. Janszen, respected by Erik, and I, has stated something to give you a message that can be researched. and It isn’t pretty. So if you were to prepare for negative things to happen I would think it would serve you well. History books would indicate it is, very bad, and very violent that the society is violent. People are without jobs, are hungry, and hope, the human spirit are broken. Often these period leads to wars. Rogoff and Reinhart are clear in their book "This Time Is Different" that history really doesn’t change all that much So what do we have really but histories lessons.
If you buy Gold it is probably because history has determined that Gold as well as Silver is what you buy as a hedge against fiat currency. Why? I don’t know, don’t even understand really. i know you can’t eat it. I just know if you prepare, you are better off.
As far as someone respecting you, how many times you write or visit a trusted site often, well that’s up to you. If you have something to say then say it, someone is reading, and maybe will get something from what you say. That Erik prefers spending cash for the privilege to be with better people, I say everyone has value, and you’ll know it when you read it.
Personally, I want diversity not cookie cutter views. I piss people off too Heffe, no problem with that, Never Lady’s, and never little girl bank tellers. I prefer however to treat people as I wish to be treated. I’ve read everybody Heffe, all the experts, all great minds, and not one is alike. I have been around, and friends with multi, I mean really big dollar people. Have met so many, met the elites in their respective fields, and the ones I valued, that made their marks on me were the ones who didn’t take themselves seriously. They were approachable, and willing to share. What I find remarkable in individuals are their self righteous mantra that serves them well but not everyone are impressed all of the time with the words, and nuances of their writing style. No big deal either, I’m quite certain this applies to me also… Be Good but be unimpressed until you know that person. Because their lips are moving don’t make them right…BOB