This is a private affair of Texan choosing. citizens of other regulated states should not pay for any of the private choices that have led to this outcome. Texans, get ready or get out to the pinies. Unfortunately, folks in the pinies are well armed and ready to defend against west Texan intruders.
The EMP Commission estimated that an effective EMP that struck most or all of the US would lead to the death of 90% of the US population within 12 months. I think that might be a little optimistic. Surviving a nationwide EMP is a tough nut to crack. I am not confident of anything about that scenario, except that we’d be among the last to die. I’m still working on improving those odds, but I think I would need to accomplish a return to 19th century living (like Robie) or ally with someone who has or could transition quickly.
And what do our national, local and individual energy choices say about our chances of achieving our future energy dreams? Nothing positive, I’d say.
vt - Are you really that clueless as to how the polar vortex works? Granted it is not a perfect metaphor but what is your brilliant theory about why the arctic has been warming 10 times faster than the rest of the world and why we have had rain at the north pole while it snows in the carolinas? My point was that the cold air is no longer being held up in the north, it is “spilling” down toward the equator more. Also cold air flows to hot. Can’t believe I need to say that but apparently I do.
Look none of this is rocket science and in fact is well established basic science. Why would anyone even question it? Just like to stir it up I guess.
“Check out her prediction of a Grand Solar Minimum, that she says will be with us through 2050.”
the last solar minimum (maunder minimum) in the 1600’s caused an estimated -.4c change… which in light of our current, +2c increase is insignificant.
I was skeptical of the modern Grand Solar Minimum until I saw a chart from C&S Grain Market Consulting, comparing Solar Cycles SC3-4-5 with SC22-23-24. Big Ag is paying attention to the modern Grand Solar Minimum.
IF SC25 traces SC6, the modern Grand Solar Minimum will mimic Europe’s “Little Ice Age” that occurred from 1645 AD to 1710 AD (the Maunder minimum). SC25 ends in 2053. Then the solar magnetic field and activity could increase (and all hell could break loose for global temperatures).
https://renewablefarming.com/index.php/more-evidence-for-cooler-growing-seasons-during-2019-25-and-2030-36
I also plotted Degree Growing Days (DGD) for my small farm for 2016 through 2019 and saw fewer “heat units” for crop growth in 2019. Of course, one data point means little or nothing. But I’m paying attention to my local “microclimate” and the greater solar cycles. Don’t jump to conclusions. Eyes wide open.
We live south west of Houston on some acreage property. Like most of Texas we lost our power for about two days. That wasn’t too big a deal for us as we had an emergency generator which worked just fine to provide basic needs for the house for fridge, lights and entertainment/internet. Our bigger problem was the loss of water from our well pump. There were no maintenance people available due to all the other repair needs in the state but fortunately I had sufficient electrical testing tools to identify that the problem was electrical and I needed to replace the motor control box. Those boxes were sold out everywhere but was able to find one from our well pump contractor who had one in stock (but they had no technician available to install it) so I picked it up and installed it myself. Meanwhile we had used our pool water to replenish toilets and for bath water. We are on propane so heating the house (which is extremely well insulated) wasn’t a problem so long as we had power from gen to run furnace fans. Some of my favorite outdoor plants (especially a giant cactus I loved) didn’t survive but all in all we got out relatively unscathed. Nevertheless I learned a few lessons for better future prep:
- Have backup spare parts for essential utility services. I have already ordered another well pump control box.
- Have a backup water source. We are fortunate to have a backyard swimming pool which is a great water storage feature but need a better way to connect it directly to the house so it can be pumped throughout the house and through water heaters and filters etc. I will be hardpiping from our swimming pool pump discharge through to our well pump discharge pipe to make this on the fly conversion but an even easier makeshift way (which I learned from talking to my well guy) is to simply attach a garden hose to the hose bib on the pool pump discharge and connect it to a house faucet tap to pressurize the house (although this would bypass the well filtration system so not as ideal as the permanent hard pipe method above).
- Have more drinking water stored up. We had plenty of pool water which could be used for drinking but we did not have sufficient quantity of bottled water for sustained water outages. The local stores were out of water very quickly so glad we didn’t need to depend on that. I have now started filling our 1 gall plastic green tea containers and am now storing 20 gal of drinking water (added six drops of chlorine per gal since I was storing our well water with minerals for long term storage).
- Food storage. We were fine there as we Already had good deep pantry storage but seeing how quickly the store shelves got depleted with panic buying reiterated the importance of not having to rely on grocery stores for at least a week or two as a great many people are NOT prepared in this area. Same is true of gasoline which was very hard to come by during the initial week of the freeze (somewhat similar to what we see when a hurricane hits).
5 Have a backup power source. We had a 8KW gasoline/propane dual fuel generator which worked great (but it is not connected to propane currently so it’s gasoline only). https://www.amazon.com/Champion-Power-Equipment-100891-7500-Watt-dp-B08HG9VVRZ/dp/B08HG9VVRZ/ref=dp_ob_title_garden I had previously had an electrician wire in a 220v dryer plug in our garage so I could plug our generator directly into our home breaker box (after I had opened the incoming utility supply so as not to back feed the grid if the power came back on) That setup worked great and allowed this generator to power our entire house (although we had nonessential items like dryers turned off) I plan to get a second generator that will run off our propane system exclusively so I don’t need to rely on gasoline as much ( and power is so critical that having two backups seems appropriate). I also have some relatively small 100-200 watt foldable PV and a lithium battery supply that Chris has recommended before:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B081QCFWHS/ref=cm_sw_em_r_mt_dp_6MDSCA8CW625M3ANF9XE?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1
(which was very useful for short term 120v power needs) as additional backup but that wasn’t needed other than for short term power and lights until I got the gen running and is mostly for emergency communication needs
6 Know your neighbors. As others have mentioned it’s during times of crisis that having good neighbors is especially important We are fortunate there as we have several neighbors who are willing to help out and vice versa. Our neighborhood fared quite well as for the most part they were all reasonably well prepared so not a lot needed to be done .
The term “held up” is a rather simplistic but in some ways accurate description.
The best description I’ve heard that explains the growing tendency for extreme winter weather in the midlatitudes is the weakening of the jet stream. The jet stream is primarily a function of the temperature gradient between the tropics and the north pole - generally when the temperature gradient is large the jet stream is stronger. A stronger jet stream can be considered “stable” in the sense that it is more difficult to perturb than a weak jet stream. All that momentum tends to just keep going. Think of a spinning top, when it is going fast it is very stable but as it slows down it starts to wobble.
Now climate change comes along and what is happening - the polar regions are warming much faster that the equatorial regions. This is decreasing the temperature gradient and thus weakening the jet stream. Since a weaker jet stream is more easily perturbed, it’s easier to get large displacements. This tends to lead to highly amplified patterns (troughs, ridges) that can become “stuck” in place. This is what happened this winter, leading to the extreme cold event in Texas.
People often ask how we can get such cold events when the overall atmosphere (especially the polar regions) is warming. But even if the polar regions are say 10 deg warmer than “normal”, that air is still very cold compared to what you would normally see in midlatitudes, and if it is displaced far south it can result in an extreme event.
In my above post I neglected to talk about the Texans power grid. My previous background was in the power generation industry so I’m quite familiar with ERCOT and the Texas power market and grid. I actually like and favor Texas Deregulated market approach but electrical markets are very complicated due to non-storage and “just in time” generation required which with Texas recent adoption of intermittent renewable generation (mostly wind) which utilities are required to buy at preferential rates (at the expense of firm fossil generation…mainly gas turbines). Texas main problem is it is an energy market only with no capacity market. Too complicated to get into here but in essence an energy only market (Kw-hrs) has no way to guarantee capacity (kilowatts) other than by charging very high prices for very few hrs to justify the expense of building additional capacity to insure there are no blackouts. Those of us in the industry have long known of this market failure but it is hard to get bureaucrats at the Public Utility Commission to understand this and institute a capacity market in addition to the current energy market to insure sufficient reserve capacity for unexpected very hot or very cold days (this is one of the reasons I want two backup home generators rather than just one).
Per Karl Denninger: “Texas, like so many other areas, has put up windmills and solar “farms” for the last 20 years, shutting down older coal-fired plants and not modernizing and improving their “fossil fuel” energy production infrastructure. At the same time on a national basis the natural gas pipeline operators, in service to the woke green mob, have replaced fuel-fired pumps (that run on the gas in the pipe, therefore are failsafe so long as the pipe has something in it and is intact) with electrically powered booster pumps because, of course, you can get the power for them from “green” sources instead of all that eeee-vile carbon.
I remind you that natural gas does not freeze at other than cryogenic temperatures and as such the problem is not the gas freezing and as for machinery you have plenty of heat source in the pipe. By putting up with and responding to the “woke mob”… these companies took an ultra-reliable and essential energy delivery system that other than by physical destruction would nearly-always continue to operate and turned it into a fragile system dependent on multiple outside elements where if any of those elements failed so does the natural gas delivery.”
that is, like all of our upstairs, unheated. Olive Oil Guy spent a night in the same room. It is common to see frost hairs on the nails in the walls when you rise.
We have many acoustic instruments, our life is rich, and friends abound. I am glad Olive Oil Guy didn’t plant the olive trees I advised as 6 degrees would have been their death.
This group is an inspiration. Chris is truly an information hound, and is the reason I subscribe.
off to eat dessert, a castagnaccio, which is off the farm (no pine nuts, pecans instead)
>> Unbelievably I closed on my house in Texas on February 12. I did so remotely as I am still in Maine. The idea was to have a small place in Texas near family to escape during winter. The joke’s on me.
Sounds like a good time to load a trailer with firewood (in Maine) and drive it down to Texas.
It seems like a realistic idea. I know people are doing that with Water.
I liked your explanation of how the jet stream works, COH. The spinning top analogy actually helped me better understand the working of the jet stream better. Thanks!
It turns out Texas was unable to ramp up energy production because of emissions limits. Furthermore, they were forced to use out-of-state electricity as well.
This disaster was totally manufactured. It didn’t have to be this way. It really didn’t.
Department of Energy: Order No. 202-21-1
February 14, 2021
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2021/02/f82/DOE%20202(c)%20Emergency%20Order%20-%20ERCOT%2002.14.2021.pdf
According to ERCOT, the measures taken by ERCOT and other state agencies may not prove sufficient to avoid rotating outages of as much as 4,000 MW. Moreover, ERCOT has been alerted that numerous generation units will be unable to operate at full capacity without violating federal air quality or other permit limitations.
ERCOT requests that the Secretary issue an order immediately, effective February 14, 2021 through February 19, 2021, authorizing “the provision of additional energy from all generation units subject to emissions or other permit limits” in the ERCOT region. The generating units (Specified Resources) that this Order pertains to are listed on the Order 202-21-1 Resources List, as described below.
Because the additional generation may result in a conflict with environmental standards and requirements, I am authorizing only the necessary additional generation, with reporting requirements as described below.
To minimize adverse environmental impacts, this Order limits operation of dispatched units to the times and within the parameters determined by ERCOT for reliability purposes.
Consistent with good utility practice, ERCOT shall exhaust all reasonably and practically available resources, including available imports, demand response, and identified behind-the-meter generation resources selected to minimize an increase in emissions, to the extent that such resources provide support to maintain grid reliability, prior to dispatching the Specified Resources.
with respect to any Specified Resource that is an ERCOT Generation Resource or Settlement Only Generator whose operator notifies ERCOT that the unit is unable, or expected to be unable, to produce at its maximum output due to an emission or effluent limit in any federal environmental permit, ERCOT shall ensure that such Specified Resource is only allowed to exceed any such limit during a period for which ERCOT has declared an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) Level 2 or Level 3. This incremental amount of restricted capacity would be offered at a price no lower than $1,500/MWh. Once ERCOT declares that such an EEA Level 2 or Level 3 event has ended, the unit is required to immediately return to operation within its permitted limits; and
In the event ERCOT identifies the need to exceed other relevant environmental permitting levels, ERCOT shall specifically identify such permitting levels and DOE will consider ERCOT’s request in good faith.
I live in the Philippines, where we are visited by over 21 typhoons EVERY YEAR.
And as the effects of climate change seems to be more and more apparent, we even experience one Supertyphoon (>80mph) every year, instead of every decade.
It has been a perennial problem of flash floods, damaged homes, displaced families, landslides and tragic deaths. Yet the government has done little to inform the public of what PREVENTIVE measures can one initiate to weather the storm (pardon the pun). All we get year in and year out is the same “preparation” involving getting flashlights, store food and water, charging your phone and radio etc. just before the typhoon strikes.
Common sense dictates that homes should be built much more sturdily and avoiding construction of dwellings in low-lying coastal areas and soft-soil hills. But just like in Texas, many Filipinos content themselves with the attitude of “puwede na 'yan!” (That will do), to tragic effects thereafter. Scrimping on building materials, compromises on safety codes, fatalistic mind-sets on giving it all up to Divine Providence for protection, is not only prevalent here, it seems to be the NORM.
I once read the news years ago of an American family frozen to death in their car, after being stuck in traffic in the middle of a blizzard. Among these dead was a 10 year old boy wearing the latest (and expensive) Air Jordan shoes and holding a PSP game console. It would have been more prudent for the family to AT LEAST buy a few thick sleeping bags (with a minimum threshold of -15C) and a few more items and toss them in the trunk, JUST IN CASE something like that happens.
Such items would only cost just as much as what the boy was having, but it would have been a LIFESAVER.
It all boils down to a question of VALUES and PRIORITIES more than anything else.
Makes us all think about this ongoing pandemic, as well, doesn’t it!
STAY SAFE EVERYONE!
And great to hear from you again, Dr. Martenson!!!
We’ll know soon enough.
The thing I like about the Professors work is that she has been completely transparent, telling people exactly, step by step, how to repeat her work.
It’s a breath of fresh air when compared to the way climate science has been handled.
I’m a homebuilder too - but I specialize in high-end custom homes. It is possible to build long-lasting, high quality homes - but the cost is high and it takes knowledge and effort. Today’s “100% financing” world just won’t support quality construction budgets because appraisals are based on comparable costs (of tract house crap). The only people who can afford my work (sadly) are the wealthy. Each of the 5 homes I’m building now are more than $1m - and they get what they pay for. We are getting HERS ratings in the 20’s WITHOUT solar systems installed. It is possible to build homes that are resilient and resistant to natural disaster: structural solutions to windstorms, insulation and energy solutions to heat and cold, site elevation for flooding, generators, solar panels, and Tesla walls for blackouts, etc. I can and do regularly solve these problems permanently for my clients - but it’s freakin’ expensive. That’s the problem.
Normal people (myself included) CAN incorporate these things into their homes and construction projects as we have outlined here, substituting a little ingenuity and cost-benefit analysis into their construction. But the average tract home is really hard to retrofit effectively - especially if it was built in the wrong place.
Rector
Following Waterdog14’s observations, there is no question that on my mid-Vermont, Green Mountains homestead the summers have been cooler over recent years. Two years ago I had some field-planted warmth loving plants (tomatoes, eggplant, peppers) fail to even set fruit and those that did produced spindly, late crops. So last year I put all of my warmth loving crops in my large hoop house. This spring I will manufacture some moveable plastic-covered hoop houses so I can create warmer micro climates over row crops. The idea is to have more ability to manage the warmth right around the plants.
On the other end, I do believe my winters are gradually producing less snowfall, and this year in particular I have seen an odd snowfall pattern. Most all of it fell in February, rather than being more evenly spread across the season. It used to be that we had snow by Thanksgiving and it lasted until May or even first of June. Then it got so we had snow on Thanksgiving that melted off, and snowless Christmas, and then serious snow arriving in January, and it all melting away in the first half of May.
In other words, I have cooler summers and less snowy winters. Less snow does not directly equal warmer. However, I might be seeing less deep cold; that is, fewer 20 below days.
As Waterdog14 says, this is just one location’s data points. But they are the data points that I have to deal with. I don’t trust science, especially so-called settled science, implicitly. There’s no such thing as settled or consensus when real science is being engaged; and I lived in the academic world more or less deeply for 20-odd years - I know how political agendas have infiltrated research grants, Ph.D. study guidance and approvals, and academic paper approvals for publication. I have seen people turned down for tenure for having the wrong social or political views in fields that have nothing to do with sociology or political science (although even there that is not proper grounds for denial where scientific method and open inquiry ought to be hallmarks). The moment someone tells me the science is well-established or settled or there’s a field consensus, I know narrative is at work; that is, fundamentalism not liberal academic inquiry. We’re all watching an example in real time with the Covid treatment scenario. Sadly, all of “science in the public interest” evidences similar misbehaviors.
I have a skeptical view of scientific fundamentalism that refuses to entertain, discuss, or seriously examine heretical or novel views. If, as some say, we are facing a climate crisis, we need to be more careful that we really understand the dynamics in play and make wise decisions. Arguments for shortcutting the process because crisis are, frankly, stupidly Russian Roulette.
I don’t know for certain what’s actually going on in the grand climate cycle; I doubt anyone certain of the scientific consensus does either. From my own continual exploration of the subject I have arrived at a few - provisional - viewpoints, subject to change as I gain more data I think I can trust:
The climate is warming. But it was before Industrialization as we came out of the last mini ice age. Whether humans have sped up that warming through oil and coal burning is more debatable; that we have no control group makes it very hard to establish human contribution. Also human effects on earth-level temperature likely comes from multiple other sources too: urban centers as heat sinks, and desertification and deforestation for example.
It is possible to hold that over the long term the climate will continue warm for reasons other than human impact. The Melanchthon Cycles are case in point, not disproven only dismissed - often out of hand, sometimes as irrelevant in the face of human impact. But ignore the Cycle and we can’t determine what the human impact actually is; therefore, we attribute all warming to human impact and nothing we could ever do could be considered as having neutralized our impact. Even if we disappeared, the Melanchthon Cycle assures continued planetary warming for about 100,000 years, after which cooling sets in again. Give me some indication natural cycles are taken into account in claims of human impact and I’ll have cleaner ears more able to listen.
The warming of the climate is not a straight line progression - not in the real world. It is possible to think the climate is warming over the long horizon and recognize the evidence for a short-horizon cooling period. That’s where I fall. Right now, I’m equipping for continued cooler summers and possibly shorter growing seasons. Also, my recent experience suggests wetter summers. Wet and cool are not good field growing conditions.
I am lucky enough to live in a state that allows “owner builders”, that has given us the ability to build in some of those things that cannot be found in a regular build.
I saw a neat concept done by the Tohono Otam south of Phoenix, for lack of a better description I’ll call it adobe infill. 2X10 construction skinned with OSB on the outside, then small forms were screwed on the wall on the inside and filled with 10% portland cement and 90% adobe. It hardened that night and the forms were moved up the next day. This gave the elders that were moving in somewhat of a traditional home and an enormous amount of thermal mass.
We are working on a new build here, a small 16 x 24 foot print with the same type of construction. It took 12-1/2 yards of soil to fill the walls and my labor of about 2-1/2 weeks. So far the results are amazing in this south facing glazed home, keeping it’s self warm on the coolest of sunny days. It would be really expensive to build this way commercially, when you design and build yourself it is rewarding and you do some goofy neat things.
It is interesting the metrics that people use and personally experience (plant and fruit germination times) rather than reports (by MSM) of things we can’t personally see or verify. My metric has been the snow line in the mountains (part of my view), and I regularly hike trails that at a certain altitude become, well more of a slog if ill equipped; as well as ocean temperatures (when it becomes swimmable) with a pool thermometer. My measures parallel your experience. The cooling trend has been evident for 5+ years, after a warming trend 1975 through to 2002. Ocean levels have not changed, that I can see, in my lifetime (70+).
Jeez, it gets pretty hot in Texas in the summer. So you would think they would need good insulation to keep AC costs down. In fact good energy efficiency would be a good selling point for new home construction. Hopefully some of the commenters here who are actually from Texas will mention the problems they have had because of poor insulation. Where I live in a colder climate with good insulation we would have to drip water or drain lines if the power was off for more than 6 hours in a storm. We would know that because the temperatures indoors would become nearly unbearable.
As for the statement, “Natural gas pipelines with too much water vapor in them froze solid cutting off gas supplies to electrical generating stations” so far we haven’t seen percentages for how much effect this may have had on energy production or whether that was significant. But we do know that Texas relies on wind power for 20% of its electric generation. We also believe that there was not excess capacity built into the system because of the potential expense. So what per cent of wind power was not available?