Am I nuts to think that a spike in the price of oil is not all bad? Obviously it would slow the economy dramatically but maybe that is okay? I guess I just get tired and discouraged watching everyone in my country (USA) treat oil like it flows freely from an inexhaustible supply.
Maybe $7/gal gasoline would open some eyes/minds and even change some behaviors?
...thats quite the claim.
Didn't know it was a "claim", just reality. What part do you disagree with? 70% is transport? Most is luxury? Gas 4X price crushes demand? Note I have no real opinion here, just repeating what economists seem to think and it seems logical. Hell, most I know cut back driving/carpool past $5/gal, let alone $10. Maybe I just hang out with the dirt people....
VLC media player allows you to download YT videos without using any sketchy third party website. Google the steps involved, it isn’t intuitive but straightforward when you figure it out.
I like to speed up the playback speed for videos and Vimeo doesn’t allow that which is a pain. VLC allows you to speed it up.
70% transportation? What you mean like transporting our food 1000’s of miles? Cheap imported goods?
Going away without consequences seems unlikely to put it mildly. Hell, I travel ridiculously all the time in order to do my ridiculous bureaucratic job, go away, good, without consequences, shit, not for me!
Your comment seems to have a personal tone not a well thought through one.
If it’s so hard to cut back on transportation because of food, perhaps you have been asleep for Covid? Food and infrastructure are working just fine, and we’ve gone way past peak oil during the pandemic. We’ve done the experiment, and it’s clear that most transport is flat-out luxury or commuting easily replaced by Zoom meetings. We could easily cut our oil consumption to a tiny fraction of what we use even today under Covid without quality-of-life cost - look at Europe. And it looks like we peaked in 2020 without the end of the world as we know it anyway.
It sounds to me like you’re spending on a credit card with reckless abandon and telling me how pleasant the experience was before you get the bill. You’re absolutely right there is a hell of a lot of “luxury” energy expense that will not affect quality of life dramatically if lost but it sure will affect the economy as it is currently set up; just ask businesses reliant upon tourism as I have what lockdowns have done. And zoom etc can and will save a significant amount of energy and likely “kick the can”. However, claiming that there will be no economic consequences because the “luxury” can disappear strikes me as delusional I’m afraid.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php
so 68% goes to transportation. A little less than half of the oil becomes gasoline. Most people use their cars for commuting, not a luxury. Many people in the country live in area without mass transit. Given the whole covid thing even if mass transit was available to me I wouldn’t use it at this point anyway. Are you going to tell people they can’t use their cars? What if these people are doctors, firefighters, teachers, soldiers? Are people’s livelihoods luxuries to you? 20% of it becomes diesel fuel and heating oil. Do you consider home heating oil a luxury? Do you consider fuel for interstate trucks and trains that move food and other goods across the country a luxury? Are you going to tell the farmers they can’t fuel their harvesters because most transportation is luxury? How about the guys working at the power or water treatment plants? I hope you are completely energy, water and waste independent.
Correct. Cost/supply strains on our car transportation system is a minor concern. Cost/supply strains on our trucking transportation system is larger concern. They will pass those costs onto everything they transport, which is just about everything around us, including our food. When our trucking system declines, so does our entire system.
-Travis
Another great interview. However, the idea that the economy is oil is a huge over simplification.
The economy is struggling regardless of what oil is doing. Inflation expectations are high based on the performance of the inflation linked TIPS. They seem to be tracking the WTI oil price. WTI price is most likely rising for the reasons outlined by Art but that says nothing about demand which was dismissed by Art.
All the money printing has, not surprisingly, led to alarm about a breakout in inflation but it has not happened in CPI terms. Instead inflation has broken out big time in asset prices. Can those prices be maintained? If you judge market trends to the upside or downside through the lens of fundamental cause and effect, then you would probably conclude that, as long as the Fed and other central banks keep printing, asset prices will remain in an upward trend.
If, like me, you believe that in an arena of fundamental uncertainty like stock markets, that speculation is driven by herding behaviour that can spook and stampede, then the conditions for that happening are near perfect.
Les has it right on this. Meat and dairy are down the list.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/245259
Mo - Apology accepted. Your link and viewpoint rejected.
Are you going to tell people they can’t use their cars? What if these people are doctors, firefighters, teachers, soldiers? Are people’s livelihoods luxuries to you? 20% of it becomes diesel fuel and heating oil. Do you consider home heating oil a luxury? Do you consider fuel for interstate trucks and trains that move food and other goods across the country a luxury? Are you going to tell the farmers they can’t fuel their harvesters because most transportation is luxury? How about the guys working at the power or water treatment plants? I hope you are completely energy, water and waste independent.
Hysterics much? Luckily, I don’t need to argue the point; I’ve already been proven correct due to covid: we operate just fine with much less driving, and nobody is going hungry.
Cost/supply strains on our trucking transportation system is larger concern. They will pass those costs onto everything they transport, which is just about everything around us, including our food. When our trucking system declines, so does our entire system.
Huh? We are nowhere near supply strains, we have demand strains because nobody is driving much. Covid shows how cutting fuel way down has no meaningful effect on American’s worldwide bread basket food supply (and obesity, I’m afraid…). We are awash in extra oil. And we haven’t even made a serious push to nuclear or coal for electric cars, nor natural gas cars yet. Which makes sense; we are awash in oil.
However, the idea that the economy is oil is a huge over simplification.
Amen. As I said earlier, covid proves we can easily cut our oil consumption to a tiny fraction of what we use even today even without quality-of-life cost. Plus look at Europe. And it looks like we peaked in 2020 without anyone even noticing. Nobody seems to even be paying attention to the data (except those of us who work in oil, I’m afraid :-)).
…A bull from the front, a horse from the rear…or a fool from any side.
Gee I thought this was PP not Facebook.
Oh well I guess entropy rules.
New people don’t realize assertions belong on social media. Data is required to carry on dialog here.
There are a lot of noobs here now.
Hi Wilco
Thanks for the link to this software. The ‘free’ version is incredibly slow and results is a badly watermarked version. The purchase price for the full version is too high given that there are several free options out there including using VLC.
good insights brushhog …PP is calling for rising oil prices - is this BOTH inflationary and deflationary? Inflationary - costs of goods rises. Deflation - people drive and spend less since everything costs more.
Technology is exponentially deflationary - is this going to hit us in 2021 significantly?