2016 Year In Review

thomas · December 23, 2016, 6:03am

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. As with past years, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full. A downloadable pdf of the full article is available here, for those who prefer to do their power-reading offline. -- cheers, Adam

Background: The Author

“The easiest thing to do on earth is not write.”

~William Goldman, novelist

I never would have believed it—not in a million years—but it happened: the Cubs won the World Series, and The Donald is our new president. Every December, I write a Year in Review¹ that’s first posted on Chris Martenson’s & Adam Taggart's website Peak Prosperity² and later at Zero Hedge.³ What started as a few thoughts posted to a handful of wingnuts on Doug Noland’s Prudent Bear message board has mutated into a detailed account of the year’s events. Why write this beast? For me, it puts the seemingly disconnected events that pass through my consciousness, soon to be lost forever, into a more organized and durable form. Somebody said I should write a book. I just did. In a nutshell, this is a story of human follies and bizarre events. There are always plenty of those. Let others tell the feel-good stories.

Figure 1. Malcolm McDowell as Alex in A Clockwork Orange.

I try to identify themes that evolve. This year’s theme was obviously defined by the election, which posed a real problem. I struggled to detect the signals through the noise. Many of my favorite analysts from whom I extract wisdom and pinch cool ideas spent the year trying to convince the world that one or more of the presidential candidates was an unspeakable wretch. I was groping for a metaphor to capture our shared experiences, rummaging through Quentin Tarantino scripts and Hieronymus Bosch landscapes for inspiration. “Rise of the Deplorables” was tempting. Then it clicked. The term “clockwork orange” is a Cockney phrase indicating a bizarre incident that appears normal on the surface. The phrase was commandeered as the title of a 1971 dystopian film in which Malcolm McDowell’s character Alex is brainwashed by being forced to watch the most grisly and horrifying of spectacles (Figure 1). For us, it was the 2016 presidential election, which created a global mind-purging brain enema. The horror! The horror! (Oops. Wrong movie.)

I knew in January that by mid-November we would be unified by our collective distrust of the Leader of the Free World, who would be surrounded by a dozen chalk outlines corresponding to political corpses that nobody wished to resurrect. I have done my best to not marinate you—too much—in tales of sociopathic felons or stumpy-fingered, combed-over letches. I do, however, eventually enter the Swamp.

By way of introduction, my lack of credentials—I am an organic chemist—has not precluded cameos in the Wall Street Journal,⁴ the Guardian,⁵ Russia Today,^6,7,8 a plethora of podcasts,¹ and even a couple investment conference talks. Casting any pretense of humble bragging aside, let’s just post this year’s elevator résumé and a few endorsements to talk my book.

“We live in a world where some of the best commentary on the global financial markets comes from a frustrated chemistry professor.”

~Catherine Austin Fitts, former Assistant Secretary of Housing, former Dillon, Reed & Co., and current president of Solari⁹

One of the high-water marks was sharing the spotlight with Mark Cuban in a Wall Street Journal article by Ben Eisen on nouveau gold buggery:¹⁰

“Dave Collum . . . has been adding to his holdings of physical gold this month, citing, among his concerns, negative interest rates and the growing refugee crisis in Europe. ‘I’m getting apocalyptic,’ he said.”

~Ben Eisen, Wall Street Journal

Podcasts in 2016 included Wall St. for Main St.,¹¹ Macro Tourist Hour (BTFD.TV),¹² The Kunstlercast,¹³ Five Good Questions,¹⁴ FXStreet,¹⁵ and, of course, Peak Prosperity.¹⁶ Dorsey Kindler, of a small-town newspaper, the Intelligencer (Doylestown, PA), interviewed me about college in an article titled, “The New McCarthyism” and, in an ironic twist, was soon thereafter fired and his content purged.¹ An interview for the Cornell Review, a right-wing student newspaper considered a “rag” by the liberal elite, probed college life and the new activism.¹⁷ A cross-posting at Zero Hedge got the Review’s click counts soaring.¹⁸ Finally, I chatted on local radio about real estate, the bond market, Hillary, and other rapidly depreciating assets.¹⁹

“If you reflect on Prof. Collum’s annual [review], you will realize how far removed from the real world and markets you are. This is a huge deficiency that all of you must work on correcting.”

~Professor Steve Hanke, economist at Johns Hopkins University, in a letter to his students

For historical reasons, the review begins with a survey of my perennial efforts to fight the Fed. I am a fan of the Austrian business cycle theory and remain hunkered down in a cash-rich and hard-asset-laden Bunker of Doom (portfolio). The bulk of the review, however, is really not about bulls versus bears but rather human folly. The links are as comprehensive as time allows. Some are flagged as “must see,” which is true only for the most compulsive readers. The quote porn is voluminous: I like capturing people’s thoughts in their own voices while they do the intellectual heavy lifting.

I try to avoid themes covered amply in previous reviews. Some topics resolve themselves. Actually, none ever do, but they do get boring after a while. Others reappear with little warning. Owing largely to central banking largesse, the system is so displaced from equilibrium that something simply has to give, but I say that every year. We seem to remain on the cusp of a recession and the third, and hopefully final, leg of a secular bear market that began in 2000. Overt interventions have kept the walking dead walking. The bulls call the bears Chicken Littles and remind us what didn’t happen. One of my favorite gurus reminds us of a subtle linguistic distinction:

“Didn’t is not the same as hasn’t.”

~Grant Williams, RealVision and Vulpes Investment Management

I finish with synopses of books I’ve read this year. They are not all great, but my limited bandwidth demands selectivity . They are all nonfiction (to varying degrees). I don’t have time to waste on 50 Shades of Garbage.

Sources

"As for the national press corps—the Fourth Estate—it has been compromised, its credibility crippled, as some of the greatest of the press institutions have nakedly shilled for the regime candidate, while others have been exposed as propagandists or corrupt collaborators posturing as objective reporters."

~Pat Buchanan, syndicated columnist and senior advisor to presidents

With some notable exceptions, the mainstream media has degenerated into a steaming heap of detritus that is so bad now that it gets its own section. A congenital infobesity has morphed into late-stage disinfobesity. Enter social media—the fever swamp—to fill the void. As we shall see, however, all is not well there either. I sift and pan, looking for shiny nuggets of content that reach the high standards of a rant. Shout-outs to bloggers would have to include Michael Krieger, Charles Hugh Smith, Peter Boockvar, Bill Fleckenstein, Doug Noland, Jesse Felder, Tony Greer, Mike Lebowitz, Mish Shedlock, Charles Hugh Smith, and Grant Williams. News consolidators and new-era media include Contra Corner,²⁰ Real Vision,²¹ Heatstreet,²² and Automatic Earth.²³ A carefully honed Twitter feed is a window to the world and the road to perdition. My actions speak to my enthusiasm for Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart at Peak Prosperity.²⁴ However, if you gave me one lens through which to view the world, I would have to choose Zero Hedge (or maybe LadySonya.com).

“You really should be keeping a journal because you are living through momentous times.”

~Chris Martenson, Peak Prosperity

On Conspiracy Theorizing

“I stopped believing in coincidences this year.”

~Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert

Every year I shout out to conspiracy theorists around the world. I am not talking about abductions by almond-eyed aliens with weaponized anal probes (which really hurt, I hasten to add) but rather the simple notion that sociopathic men and women of wealth and power conspire. Folks who could get through 2016 without realizing this are imbeciles. I am talking totally blithering idiots. Markets are rigged. Government stats are cooked. Interest rates are set by fiat. Polls are skewed. E-mails are destroyed. Cover-ups abound. Everybody has an agenda. Watch this d-bag at one of the neocon think tanks—somehow so stupid as to not realize he’s being recorded—talk about how false-flag operations are commonplace.²⁵ Meanwhile, the media conspires to convince us to the contrary. The folks who really piss me off, however, are the glib intellectuals—Nassim Taleb calls them “intellectuals yet idiots” (IYIs)—who suggest that conspiracy theorists are total ret*rds.²⁶ (Saved by the asterisk, which baffles the sh*t outta me why that works.) Does it seem odd that the world’s most prominent detractor of conspiracy loons, Harvardian Cass Sunstein,²⁷ is married to neocon Samantha Power,²⁸ one of the great conspirers? It does to me, but I am susceptible to such dietrologie.

“Popular opinions, on subjects not palpable to sense, are often true, but seldom or never the whole truth.”

~John Stuart Mill

Many will try to shut down open discussions of ideas displaced from the norm by using the word “conspiracy” pejoratively. Their desire for the world to be normal is an oddly child-like cognitive dissonance. In that event, lean over and whisper in their ears, “Keep your cognitive dissonance to yourself, dickweed” while gently nudging them in the groin with your knee. Now, let’s pop a few Tic Tacs, grab a clowder, and get on with the plot, but first . . .

*Trigger Warning* If this review is already too raw for your sensibilities, please stop reading. Nobody is making you squander your time on a socially marginal tome of questionable merit. Better yet, seek professional help.

Investing

“If you pay well above the historical mean for assets, you will get returns well below the historical mean.”

~Paraphrased John Hussman

Read that over and over until you understand it. Changes in my 2016 portfolio were more abrupt than those from other years but still incremental. I resumed purchasing physical gold in 2015 after a decade-long hiatus. In 2016, I bought aggressively in January (the equivalent of half an annual salary) and continued incremental buying throughout the year (another half salary). My total tonnage (OK, poundage) increased by an additional 5% of my assets. My cash position shrunk by about 5% accordingly but remains my largest holding. I am in no rush to alter the cash position. For a dozen years, I have been splitting my retirement contributions into equal portions cash and natural gas equities. The latter keeps failing to attain an approximate percentage goal of 25–30% of my assets owing to market forces. My approximate positions are as follows:

Precious metals etc.: 27%

Energy: 12%

Cash equivalent (short term): 53%

Standard equities: 8%

The S&P, despite a late year rally incorrectly attributed to the Trump victory, appears to be running on fumes or, as the big guns say, is topping. The smart guys (hedge fund managers) continue to underperform, which means the dumb money must be overachieving (blind nuts finding squirrels). This is never a good sign.

“We should all own cash, because it is the most hated asset.”

~Jim Rogers, Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests

“The great financial success stories are people who had cash to buy at the bottom.”

~Russell Napier, author of Anatomy of the Great Bear (2007)

“Cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless.”

~Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway

Figure 2. Performances of GLD, SLV, XAU, XLE, XNG, and S&P.

After a few years of underperformance resulting from the oil and gold drubbing, large gains in the gold equities (60%), gold (6%), silver (15%), generalized energy equities (10%), and natural gas equities (48%) shown in Figure 2 were attenuated by the huge cash position to produce a net overall gain in net worth of 9%. This compares to the S&P 500 (+10% thanks to a hellacious late year rally) and Berkshire Hathaway (25%, wow). (Before you start brain shaming me, that same cash buffer precluded serious percentage losses during the hard-asset beatings in the preceding years.)

The most disappointing feature of the year was in the category of personal savings. I have managed net savings every year, including those that included paying for college educations. This year, however, began poorly when my gold dealer got robbed and lost my gold. My losses paled in comparison to his; he committed suicide. I discovered maintenance needs on my house that got really outta control, and a boomerang adult child ended up costing me a bit. All told, I forked over 50% of my annual salary to these unforseeables, which turned overall savings negative (–20% of my salary) and eroded a still-decent annual gain in net worth. Oh well, at least I have my health. Just kidding. I have a 4 centimeter aortic aneurysm, am pissing sand, and have mutated into Halfsquatch owing to congenital lymphedema (Figure 3). (I live-Tweeted a cystoscopy—likely a first for social media.) I have to keep moving here to finish before I pass my expiration date.

Figure 3. Sand and Stump.

In a longer-term view, large gains in total net worth (>300%) since January 1, 2000 are still fine. I remain a nervous secular precious metal bull and confident equity secular bear. I intend to put the cash to work when Tobin’s Q, price-to-GDP, price-to-book, and Shiller PE regress to and through the mean. When this will occur is anybody’s guess, especially with central bankers determined to make me pay for “fighting the Fed.” I will start buying after a 40% correction brings the S&P to fair value, keep buying as it drops below fair value, and wish I had saved my money by the secular bottom. We return to all this in Broken Markets.

Here’s what my dad taught me: you need cash at the bottom to buy up cheap assets. Few will have cash because you have to go to cash at the top, and precious few have the capacity to shake recency bias and exit positions that have performed well. Just like a toaster, your sell order has only two settings: too soon and too late. My far greater concern is that bear markets are as much about time as they are about inflation-adjusted price. The Fed is determined to burn the clock. Nobody wins if we imitate Japan’s 25-year lost decade.

“Time takes everybody out. It’s undefeated.”

~Rocky Balboa

U.S. Economy

“The word ‘maximum employment’ has this connotation that everything is good in the labor market, but everything is not great in the labor market."

~Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve

Unemployment is at 4.9%—what’s not to like? Economists have even claimed the “labor market is getting tight.” I scoff. The labor participation rate shows that 38% of working-age adults are not working (Figure 4). Apparently, 33% of working-age adults are neither employed nor unemployed. Hmmm . . . even that’s a little optimistic given that only 50% of adults are employed full-time. The millennials are getting whacked by the boomers who refuse to die (sorry, retire).

Figure 4. Unemployment (left; official stats in red; Shadowstats in blue) and labor force participation rate (right).

The wealth for middle-class households has dropped 30% since 2000;²⁹ One in five kids lives in poverty,³⁰ 46 million folks are on food stamps;³¹ 20% of the families have nobody employed³² (despite the 4.9% number); and almost 50% of all 25-year-olds are living with mom and dad unable to translate that self-exploration major into a job.³³ Half of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year.³⁴ The once-industrial-juggernaut Rochester of Kodak/Xerox fame has more than 30% of residents living in poverty and another 30% living with government assistance.³⁵ Very Detroit-like but without the Aleppo motif.

You can see it in the micro if you drill down. Deindustrialization has been occurring steadily since the late 90s.³⁶ The mining industry lost more this year than it made in the last eight years.³⁷ Sales of industrial-strength trucks have been “dropping precipitously.”³⁸ Sales in general are looking very ’09-ish. Factory orders and freight shipping (Cass Freight Index) have been dropping for two years.³⁹ Catherine Mann of the OECD says that “In terms of actual trade growth, it is extremely grim.” The CEO of Caterpillar finally cashed in his chips after 45 contiguous months of dropping sales.⁴⁰ Commercial bankruptcies are up 38% year over year,⁴¹ whereas 62% of Americans have less than $1,000 in savings.⁴² It seems unlikely the consumer will be buying bulldozers and 18 wheelers in the near future.

“This turns out to be the deepest and most protracted growth shortfall on record for the modern-day global economy.”

~Stephen Roach, Yale professor and former chairman and chief economist at Morgan Stanley

The economy is in the weakest post-recession recovery in half a century despite protestations to the contrary by Team Obama.⁴³ The 2%-ish growth rate since ‘09 feels like a recession, especially given specious inflation adjustments to get 2%. There isn’t a wave of job cuts yet, but some signs are worrisome. Cisco Systems laid off 20% of its workforce.⁴⁴ GE cut 6,500 jobs.⁴⁵ Despite gains in non-GAAP earnings, GE’s GAAP earnings—the non-fabricated earnings—plunged.⁴⁶ Intel dumped 11% of its workforce but faked a win by dropping its assumed tax rate by 7%.⁴⁷ This tactic smacks of the same old financial engineering, but maybe it is headed for nonprofit status. One bright spot: the $15 billion vibrator industry is set to grow to $50 billion,⁴⁸ satisfying consumers in a manufacturing–service industry combo.

Speaking of stimulus, what the hell went awry? The Feds drilled the rates to zero (creating a ginormous bond bubble; vide infra) to encourage consumers to do the one thing they cannot afford to do—consume. Global central bankers have cut rates every 3 days since 2008 according to Grant Williams.⁴⁹ The central bankers dumped tens of trillions of dollars—trillions with a “t” that comes right before gazillions with a “g”—into the global economy. The answer is simple and foreshadowed above: once you blow up a credit bubble, you cannot force consumers to spend. Have ya heard people talking about pulling equity out of their houses lately? Didn’t think so. That numbnut idea proferred by the incoherent Alan Greenspan left consumers with the same houses and twice the debt while poverty-stricken old age looms large.

“If a consumer buys a boat today with money made available through a low-interest loan, that’s a boat he won’t buy next year.”

~Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital and Three Comma Club (billionaire)

“The decline of the middle class is causing even more economic damage than we realized.”

~Larry Summers, speaking for himself with the royal “we”

How could the economists have been so wrong? I have a remarkably simple theory: their models are wrong. They suffer so badly from Friedrich Hayek’s “fatal conceit” that they have become functional nitwits. That’s the best I’ve got. One could argue we have a secular economic problem. As a nation, we exploited cheap labor overseas through immigration during the 16th–20th centuries. The immigrants worked like dogs, got paid squat, and saved so furiously that it became a lot more than squat. Thomas Sowell explains this brilliantly in his writings.⁵⁰ For the last few decades, however, we exploited cheap overseas labor by exporting jobs. They too worked like dogs, got paid squat, and saved furiously. But that wealth is not here; it’s over there (pointing east). Will new and improved trade policies solve our (U.S.) problems? I don’t think so. As long as there are folks overseas willing to work harder for less, we have some correcting left to do. With that said, I am a free-trade guy and particularly like the trade agreement painstakingly crafted by Mish Shedlock:

“Effective immediately, all tariffs and subsidies, on all goods and services, are removed.”

~Mish Shedlock (@MishGEA), blogger

How about some more Keynesianism? Former economist Paul Krugman, whose op-eds read like episodes of Drunk History, would say we simply haven’t done enough. (Paul: you have done more than enough.) Modern-day Keynesianism has mutated way past Maynard’s original idea into an unrecognizable metaphysical glob of thinking that boils down to the notion that government knows how to spend better than the private sector does. Is this the same government that included Anthony Weiner, Rick Santorum, and Barbara Boxer?

Here is Keynesianism I could live with. Government should spend as little as possible, but there are legitimate roles to be played. Imagine if governments at all levels would simply act like financially interested parties—as a collective, not as slovenly greedy, bribery-prone individuals—and buy necessary goods and services when they are cheap and stop buying when the private sector has bid them up. We would get maximum bang for the tax buck. It would also quite naturally achieve the much ballyhooed counter-cyclicality. But, alas, the moment they start talking &ldqu

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/2016-year-in-review/

cmartenson · December 23, 2016, 2:33am

Okay folks, you'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll renew your passport!
Grab a cup of coffee and settle in for the very best year-end review there is.

Seriously, I came away with a profoundly renewed sense of just how insane all of these monetary and policy shenanigans really are. Keeping your bearings during a bubble is hard, but during the mother of all bubbles? Really difficult.

To pick just one example out of many, how about this?

Low and negative rates are destroying pension management, insurance, and even banking industries. When your business model is to take in money, make decent returns, pay out a little less, and skim off the difference, then negative, zero, or even low interest rates are deadly. The model fails. This doesn’t seem hard to grasp either.

Entire models of business are being destroyed, along with savers, and the Fed and other central banks simply cannot seem to do anything other than continue to bail out the speculators, big banks, and the already stupendously wealthy owners of financial assets.

As Dave Collum says, it's not particularly hard to grasp, yet the media is too busy trying to manufacture Russian bogeymen to distract from their own and other failings of the keepers of the status quo to delve in and (1) grasp and then (2) explain any of this.

And so they fail harder.

uncletommy · December 23, 2016, 3:46am

David Collum has hit another one out of the park. Call it cognitive dissonance, existential crisis, "Anfechtungen", or what have you, he has touched the depths of my soul and put into words the angst that many of us in the PP thread reflect on every time we open the site. And the solution? Perhaps it's time to pick up our fiddles, have a glass of wine and play as we and enjoy the warmth of the flames. Or am I being too cynical? My favorite;

“The debasement of coinage . . . is noticed by only a few very thoughtful people, since it does not operate all at once and at a single blow, but gradually overthrows governments, and in a hidden, insidious way.
~Copernicus

michael_rudmin · December 23, 2016, 4:17am

Chris, yes – entire industries of skimmers are being destroyed. But not to worry! Down here in hampton roads, they are developing the next, new business model – the construction skimmer. Basically, contrary to state law, they assign different areas to be “tolled” on all entrances and exits, to a given company, at rates that it decides. What could be better for unearned income?
And they’re locking down the poorest districts first, not because there’s the most money to skim, but because stealing from the poor is the least offensive to the wealthy.
Of course, there was the minor little issue of it being unconstutional, but a little handwaving magic took care of that. Then, of course, there’s the Obamacare skimming.
Really, as long as skimming was tied only to the financial industries, it wasn’t developing. Although it developed within the industry, you really couldn’t call skimming a growth industry.
Now that the ZIRP has forced the financial services out into the real world, you can get REAL progress.
Ooooooh.
I see your website suspects me of being a spambot. Well, when I post like this, I FEEL like a spambot.

michael_rudmin · December 23, 2016, 4:50am

Have yourself a VERY little Christmas!Make it yuletide-lite!
From now on, our troubles will be … outta sight.
Have yourself a very little Christmas;
as companies off-lay,
They’ll just have to legislate to make us pay!
Here we are in great recession days,
worse-than-depression days of yore!
A friend in need is a friend indeed,
so we’ll have friends, galore!
Through the years we’ll share a shed together,
If the government allow.
Barak, and Dubiya, please stand up and take a bow!
Just… have yourself… a very little Christmas…
(Jingle cash, jingle cash, jingle … all… away?)
…Now!

sosodef · December 23, 2016, 6:33am

Great read as always! I'd like to add one more to the, "Nightmare scenarios in a cashless society" = power outage.

oliveoilguy · December 23, 2016, 12:53pm

What did I get for Christmas in 2016? A brilliant summation of a most amazing year. Thank you David. I skimmed the long article/short book and am confident that it will give me hours of laughter and enlightenment over this Christmas Holiday. A proper perusal would not be complete without reading the conclusion, and I could not agree more that "Free Speech" has become the key issue going forward.
This from David… "I don’t worry about Trump as much as I worry about the abrogation of free speech. From my vantage point, the alt-left seems more dangerous than the alt-right because the former is charging at our right to free speech with venomous aggression. Recent moves to censor and eliminate “fake news” are not just political footballs. They are attacking the most fundamental right of our democracy—the right to free speech. Give that up and you give up everything. I can ignore Nazis, communists, cultists, and fringe elements of almost all kinds provided they come as a consequence of free speech. Aristotle said that an educated person—actually, he said educated man—can entertain an idea without endorsing it. We should be careful not to give up the right to entertain all ideas."

Brilliant David…and Thanks for the book suggestions as well.

pinecarr · December 23, 2016, 1:36pm

I am still reading, but am loving David's hilarious and spot-on summation of 2016. Thank-you David! You had me at "Intellectuals Yet Idiots (IYIs)" …and again with an encore discussion of "functional nitwits". What a great gift!!

doug · December 23, 2016, 8:05pm

I don’t have time to read all the sections, but did scan the links and read the energy section without finding any mention of the gorilla in the closet, climate change. Perhaps I missed it, so if someone could direct me to any discussion of the subject I would appreciate it.

thomas · December 23, 2016, 9:35pm

Interesting you should mention that, I (Dave not Thomas), am agnostic on it for several reasons:
(1) Climate is so damned complex of a question that I don't have the band width to convince myself that I understand it. I had dinner with the former head of the Dept of Energy (Steve Chu), and he absolutely believes in anthropogenic change as do almost all my friends in the various sciences. There are more detractors, however, who I believe are NOT backing away from the idea for political reasons. For me, it's a debate that I cannot rationally join in on.

(2) I do not believe we will do anything about it. The logic that we should do it for future generations is obviously having no effect whatsoever. Everything I see says we are going to do the experiment.

(3) My faith in government and the complex web of vested interests has convinced me that highly intelligent approaches to the problem will be subverted by the pay-to-play crowd if we bring big government to bear. (Goldman and its carbon derivatives market is a good example.)

(4) As George Carlin said (paraphrased), "The world will be fine; we just won't be here to see it."

I know those are unsatisfying answers, especially for this site.

scribe · December 23, 2016, 9:38pm

Y’all can keep the new-fangled green energy; it’s too political for my tastes.

That's his biggest error. New forms of energy represent some of the best investment opportunities out there, but this guy is investing in fossil fuels.

karenf · December 24, 2016, 5:48pm

I stop everything to read this!

striercomcast-net-2 · December 24, 2016, 8:28pm

Oh boy, my first Christmas book this season!

scribe · December 26, 2016, 8:35am

I agree. Why feature writers who ignore the biggest elephant in the room? I thought this site had got over that.

spad · December 30, 2016, 4:56am

I suggest that "Cash is King" only when you're holding actual Federal Reserve Notes in your hand and only as long as the general public has faith in its value.
The basis of my opinion centers on "Paper Cash" versus "Digital Cash":

As of October, 2016

The FED states: $1.43 trillion USD in "Federal Reserve Notes" were in circulation around the globe.

As of June, 2016

· "Average Total Deposits" for Wells Fargo = $1.24 Trillion

o This is 86.7 % of all Federal Reserve Notes in circulation

· “Average Total Deposits” for all US banks = $12.58 Trillion

o All Federal Reserve Notes in circulation will cover 11.34% of all US bank deposits.

o It’s interesting … 11.34% is very close to the Cash Reserve Ratio required by the banking system.

FED distribution estimates:

· $860 Billion in Federal Reserve Notes are distributed outside the United States.

· $570 Billion in Federal Reserve Notes are distributed within the United States.

o This is just 4.53% of the Average Total Deposits in all US banks

So … what happens when 5% of the people decide they want their cash?

cmartenson · December 30, 2016, 2:08pm

…the first 5% are reasonably happy, everybody else is unhappy.

But long before that moment, the banks are shuttered, the ATM's have severe withdrawal limits, and new rules are put in place.

To really understand this dynamic, simply ask someone in Venezuela or Greece what their life is like and you can have a current perspective. It's awful.

kugscheese · January 2, 2017, 9:52pm

Can the average 2,500 savings pay off the credit debt? Nope. So broke!

kugscheese · January 2, 2017, 10:04pm

The NIRP is to bailout bankrupt governments. Nothing more or less. In other words mindless desperation.

time2help · January 2, 2017, 10:22pm

KugsCheese wrote:

The NIRP is to bailout bankrupt governments. Nothing more or less. In other words mindless desperation.

To utter those words publicly would destroy the only thing left - the confidence that the can can be kicked a little while longer.

aggrivated · January 2, 2017, 11:13pm

India
The timewindow to turn in cash was too short for the number of people trying to use the banking system for the first time. Many ended up with useless paper.
USA
Since 2009 US has required social security and disability checks be direct deposit. Many who wouldn’t have ever ‘trusted’ the bank with their money now have to. When we go cashless + NIRP that thin veil of trust will be torn in two.