2024 Year in Review: What is a Fact? - Part I

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First, I want to thank Dave Collum for producing these monumental treatises every year, which I calculate must mean spending hundreds of hours sitting at his computer, blasting away throughout the year. This may be one of the reasons he had to employ the services of “Dr. Darth Vader” this year, which I would call “taking one for the (Peak Prosperity) team.”

Even if I didn’t agree with most of his insights and positions, which I do, I think I would still fork over the full asking price of his articles just for the off-the-wall humor.

About 10 years ago, I had to stand up for owning a Prius on this forum after davefairtex made some derogatory remark on a post, and here I am standing up for my Tesla. (Will I never learn?). I guess I’m going to have to agree with Barry Ritholtz about Dave (Collum), at least with his take on EVs, because “I Googled it.” (joke).

Actually, I won’t challenge his overall view about the cost benefits or environmental benefits of ICE vs. EV, though I’m sure many would. Instead, I will state my reasons why I love my Tesla, and as Dave might say if he were in my position, “Your opinion (and facts) has been duly noted … and ignored.” Therefore, in no particular order:

  • I wake up every morning with a fully charged vehicle ready to drive up to 300 miles, saving me countless trips to the gas station, and not costing me a cent more than the $60k I spent on my PV solar (which apparently is another reason that I’m a bad human being).
  • No oil changes.
  • No cooling system maintenance.
  • It drives itself while I sit back and listen to podcasts of people like, um, Dave Collum.
  • Automatic software updates.
  • and … Fart noises on demand.

The number one reason I love my car is the feeling I get, like launching into hyperspace, when I step on the pedal. I guess I would compare it to the feeling a crack addict gets on that first hit (although I wouldn’t know for sure).

In the end, loving my Tesla might be the only addiction I can afford… at least until silver pops.

SS

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Dave,

Thank you for all the awesomeness youve sent our way. My scores:
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
0
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
2
Total 42 = rabbit hole time
Thank you!

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63

Curious timing, no?

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64

Let’s have it. Effen A it’s time.

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Retired OEM Powertrain engineer/project manager here, with more than a passing knowledge of EV/hybrid/ICE.

They each have their advantages and disadvantages. I managed PT development on both EVs and Hybrids. Did some work on transmissions in trucks.

I tow a 14k 5th wheel. EV and Hybrids can not do that. Capacity to tow with a hybrid is limited, and while EV have higher capacity, real world, it’s a non starter.

EV are not the environment panacea people think. Rare earth materials are very difficult to obtain, requiring a lot of earth and huge holes to be dug obtaining them. They also have limited range, or require a long time to recharge.

I actually like the hybrids, as their range potential is much much further. We leased one for awhile, and it was the perfect vehicle for my wife. She used it around town running only on battery, and longer trips, fossil fuel.

Biggest issues with battery, they have a limited life, and once the batteries die, the cost to replace them exceeds the cost of the same time/miles in gas. The other issue has been the amount of money the govt has thrown into EV. Without govt money, I highly doubt Tesla would have survived, much less succeeded. They were extremely close to bankruptcy at one point. Their quality has left a lot to be desired.

60k in solar would get you almost 500,000 miles at today’s avg gas price and 25 mpg. I’m hoping you don’t have 60k in solar just for the Tesla, so that will def change the numbers :slight_smile: The other issue with solar, most people want to charge at night when they are home, not when they are at work… or you’re spending money on batteries too! And yes, I understand it, I have a moderate solar/battery system in my 5th wheel.

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Good info Phil. There are advantages and disadvantages as you say. The intangibles like crazy acceleration and the convenience of not going to the gas station or having regular maintenance are hard to quantify, but I’ll give it a hedonic adjustment of $50k, making my car free according to government inflation estimates. :wink:
As far as the cost, I’ve manage to come out with a couple hundred dollar energy credit rebate at the end of the year so far from the excess electricity sent back to the grid so I’m not complaining.

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I scored a 28 but it is in my nature to not believe (nor disbelieve) anything unless I investigate it myself and investigate it in detail. I investigated the mRNA injections in detail. I concluded that virtually all of the Oligarch media reporting on it was false. Ditto, the JFK assassination. The “lone nut” theory is simply an outrageous misinformation project. Climate change looks like a scam (and I consider it to be a scam) but I am still looking into it. But I never investigated the RFK assassination. I never investigated Pizzagate.

There is simply a limit to how much I can investigate.

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100% same.

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69

the Saudi’s … AGAIN,

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When I read that “Shingrix is an mRNA gene therapy” I freaked out because my mum got a shingles jab recently. But my brief research says Shingrix is not mRNA-based. Much relieved.

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I was just reading about Ivermectin or HCQ with high dose zinc for the treatment of shingles.

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https://x.com/RenzTom/status/1762660957396914372

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Also saw that Midwestern Doctor says DMSO is effective against shingles.

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Ha! That actually doesn’t surprise me. Between that, IVM/HCQ + zinc, red light therapy and brisk cardio, I could imagine the body could defeat about anything.

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The reason why inversion of the yield curve matters is that banks “borrow short to lend long”, so when short term interest rates are higher than long term rates their business model is unprofitable and credit dries up, leading to a recession (which may be statistically concealed)

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Blockquote
Retired OEM Powertrain engineer/project manager here, with more than a passing knowledge of EV/hybrid/ICE…"

Our town had us research EVs and hybrids (former member of the Alternative Energy Advisory committee). Also other alt-energy methods. We had a committee of deeply committed green energy volunteers, but once we started digging into the data, realized 99% of what they are selling was a taxpayer-raping boondoggle. Super disappointing… We WANTED it to be true.

But anyways, after all that research and a couple of public hearings, our building inspector got a Prius. His usage (traveling in-town job sites to inspect) makes the cost/benefit numbers work, even with the battery dying after 5 years. The fire chief has an “okay” to get a hybrid mini-SUV, but opted not to. EV’s are a direct “no.” Not even recharged by our own solar panels. The issue was the battery life and cost to replace. A hybrid will continue to run when the battery starts to lose the ability to hold much of a charge, just worse gas mileage, the EV won’t. Getting a tax override through town meeting in order to buy a new car when the old one died prematurely is just a no-go. Our taxpayers skew liberal and green, but we have enough tax-hawks in town that they will call out stupid spending.

Oh, we WANTED it to be true! But its just not ready for prime-time yet.

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Could you share that analysis? I’m curious. Thanks!

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I’ll try to dig it up, but we did that analysis several years (and my own personal new-computer-change) ago, so might have to get it from the committee archives. The upside of “waking up” to government censorship is I’ve probably got an electronic copy of every. single. study. that goes against the “official” narrative buried someplace. The downside of saving everything is that, if you didn’t tag it clearly when you stored it, good luck digging through terabytes of data to find that obscure study :upside_down_face:

But insofar as cost/benefit on the hybrids, we testified to the selectmen that it was a “cost neutral” investment. In other words, we’d save gasoline, but the battery would bite us later. Gas prices were a bit higher than now, so that cost/benefit may no longer be valid.

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Isn’t too awful difficult to do it in today’s dollars. Even taking the EPA printed mileage, which is unontaniable, today’s gas prices, and today’s cost of replacement battery, you’ll end up with a reasonable calculation that will show EV and ICE 7 years later being equivalent.

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Still can’t find the data (Town Hall is closed for New Years), but a significant factor in deciding WHICH town department’s vehicles were suitable to roll the dice on hybrids had to do with the KIND of driving they do. Police vehicles were a quick “hell, no!” Most of that due to the need to accelerate in an emergency from sitting at the side of the road (not charging) to 70 mph. Same for the DPW vehicles which have to go out in frigid weather to plow – batteries don’t hold up well in the cold, and not a lot of deceleration to recharge. Large vehicles, such as school busses and fire engines, were just too HEAVY to push with a battery – hybrids get good gas mileage because they are LIGHT. The building inspector and assistant fire chief, however, putter around town checking compliance onsite, and didn’t need big vehicles to haul fire hoses or rocks, so they had the kind of low-stress acceleration and deceleration that lends itself well for allowing the hybrid battery to recharge.

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