A Crisis Within A Crisis

I suspect by March 18 it will be easier to persuade event organizers to cancel.

mark r, Neighbor

West Chester, PA | 4m

Great. A large gathering to help the uninfected get infected. The experts will tell them what their disease will feel like.Seriously, hold this on line, people can watch from their homes. Of course, given how little testing has been done and the long latency of the virus, it might be moot to cancel events now. But slowing the spread is needed. Remdesivir is an experimental drug that seemingly cured the first case in Seattle a month ago. But we don't have pallets ready to be shipped.  

Did you watch the Honey Badger video the other day?
The Honey Badger doesn’t “give a shit” about its daily choices about life, or pain, or death.
Either does CV 19.

VERY nice commentary.

Do we agree that death rate = (# of deaths / # of infected)?
We do not have accurate numbers of the # of infected. We only have the numbers of CONFIRMED infected, ie, those who have been tested positive.
We also do not have accurate numbers of the # of deaths of infected. We only have the numbers of people who tested positive and died.
According to the Johns Hopkins dashboard this morning:
Total Confirmed 100,330
Total Deaths 3,408
That gives a death rate of 3.4%
However, there are more people infected than those numbers show.
The last number I saw was that 70% of people would have mild or no symptoms. That would put the total number of infected at 334,433
And let’s say that the deaths are only 1/2 of what is out there. Old people die of respiratory failure all the time, and they may not get tested for COVID19 if it was sudden. So, total deaths around 6816
Those numbers give a death rate of 2.0%
You can do the math yourself.
death rate = (# of confirmed deaths/(1-% of unconfirmed deaths))/(# of confirmed infected/(1-% of unconfirmed infected))
2.0% = (3408/(1-0.5))/(100330/(1-0.7))
What if more people get it but only show mild/no symptoms. Change 0.7 to 0.9 and you get a 0.7% death rate.
Maybe the 70% number is right, but there’s a higher unconfirmed death count, say 80%. Then you get a 5.1% death rate.
So, plug in your HUNCHES to get the estimate you think is probable.

Keep clubbing people here over the head.
Meanwhile, while everyone is looking at their phones, their feet. My AO got sprayed to fuckin death yesterday by MIC. Never have seen anything like it. At least a hundred trails criss-crossing the sky. Planes spraying all that wonderful shit from above.
Then I get home and read in one of the local rags and some drone is bitching about “open burning” season.
I like your style. Keep it up.
That’s it for my comments today folks, gotta go make the donuts! :slight_smile:

The original much touted study, even quoted on CNN by none other than Fauci…has come under fire and is now questioned by many. Example: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong
Do we have other confirmed, less disputable evidence? Asking for a friend…

Just look at this crap. Who in their right mind trusts these prices anymore? Good to see they can’t fuck with the markets forever though. By god, silver is still money. Always has been always will be. A tradition since the Romans and before. Not everybody can afford $1700 for a coin yknow.
Besides, here’s something people tend to forget: All of that price is paper. If you want to own actual physical silver… you pay a commission. A pretty hefty one in the case of silver, too. When i bought my stash i was advised to “wait a few years before selling”. I looked at the guy and said i didn’t think it’d be much of a problem.
As for the real death rate… There is no way to tell. Just like the R0 it depends on so many things. Local strain variants as it adjusts to genetic variations in population, high/low hospital capacity, proactive vs reactive healthcare plans, just plain goddamn luck (South Korea shows what one super spreader can do, more infected = more hospital overload = more deaths).
So far South Korea just killed it with testing everybody aggressively right away as well as having a hospital system with a very high bed count AND instituting an immediate lockdown (if not by government mandate then by the peoples). If you want a gold standard for the (what appears to be) asian strain of the virus; south korea is the lowest the CFR will be.
If you want the worse case for the new, more virulent strain going through europe… Iran. If we ever see the official numbers. Otherwise i’m afraid italy will show us, being the first to be hit and thus most unprepared. Though, i fear other EU nations will give italy a run for its money in this regard…
EDIT: Markets are open! Instant ~750 point drop in the Dow!

We don’t need a massive influx of serious cases to cause this. Losing good staff to infections and quarantines and mismanagement will accomplish the same thing. The combination will be spectacular.
My dilemma this weekend is whether I should get my hair cut a little sooner than needed so I can stay away from a place likely to have a much higher exposure rate. I’ll still have to go back in a couple months. For those self-isolating, have you considered how you will address haircuts, or will our dear handsome Chris and Adam get shaggier and shaggier on the daily updates? Maybe chrome dome is the way to go.
As far as fast food joints, perhaps consider whether you have an addiction you need to address if you keep frequenting those places? Retailers may need to start posting their hygiene protocols to keep their customers.

Dear Chris
Just a detail:
A Correct formula is: x = (dead)/(recovered+dead)
That meaning that out of a total population where the disease has run its course, x is the percentage of people who died.
Obviously, You cannot use the total number of infected during the outbreak, you can only use the number who have reached a conclusion, either 1) recovery, or 2) death.
During the outbreak, one way to estimate Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is : Total Dead / (Total Infected before X Days Ago), where X Days = 30 or so. If someone was infected 30 days ago, they can be presumed recovered or dead, unless reinfection occurs.
It would be helpful, therefore, for the experts to list not just the number of people infected daily, but the number of people who have been infected for 30 days or so.

As the virus whistled past 100k, I’m pretty sure I heard it whisper, “Ok Boomer”. Maybe that’s what we should name it. Also makes me think of the Tones and I song. “The kids are coming”.

In a city or state where there are no reported confirmed cases of the COVID-19 virus or its mutations/evolutions, I would not think it to be a problem to go to a hair salon/barber shop. Consider going/making your appointment at their least busy time of day and consider wearing a mask yourself to protect from errant spittle. Remember that the county health departments require places like hair salons to sterilize their tools, keep surfaces and floors cleaned throughout the day, etc… .
At the end of the day, trust your gut instinct. You know your own level of risk consideration and who you yourself may place at risk. Those who live alone may make different decisions than those who have a family member at home who may be at greater risk of picking up this virus and suffer negative health consequences due to age, pre-existing conditions, etc… .

In self isolation, you adjust. Good looking haircuts are optional and a luxury. If you’re worried about hygiene, buzz cuts for the men shoulder length for the women. Nice and traditional. A lot of women got different haircuts too when they where needed in the factories for world war II and their hair got in the way.
I’ve got long hair in a ponytail, so my plan is to just keep it that way and if it gets too long just cut off the tail with scissors to just below where i want it to be. The day the quarantine ends and life goes back to normal, i can always visit a stylist to get it fixed up again. After all fixing messed up ends is as easy as taking a little off the top.
as for addiction… well. You just gotta stock up before it runs out or you’re gonna have a bad time. I made the rounds along the coffeeshops before i went into lockdown ^_^. Edit: I should mention that that was over a week ago, and the man behind the counter was talking about the hashish deals going away, as he said “yeah man it’s really tight in the hashish market right now, really tight”.
Because let’s get one thing clear. If shit hits the fan, and it will, there won’t be enough for everybody. If you don’t have enough now… you will suffer and there won’t be a solution.
That’s why i posted early about the coming Opioid crisis. the US uses 99% of the worlds hydrocodone supply of which there are 3 fabrication plants:
1 in Wuhan, 1 near Berlin and 1 in San Francisco. The Wuhan one is clearly shut down (with no way to get the stuff to the US even if it wasn’t), the German one should be humming along but Germany’s also gone exponential. And San Fran already has community spread confirmed (with it’s homeless problem expect even a lock down to be an issue to enforce) so that won’t be running much longer.
There’s a stock of pills of course but it’s the same as with food: Amount isn’t an issue; location is. What good is a warehouse on the other side of the country when all the delivery drivers are sick?
That’s why i say if you’re on any legal drugs, especially opioids, get a supply NOW because it will not last. Guaranteed.

This product list was posted on the EPA website on 03/03/2020

You can’t wear a mask or glasses during a haircut, and the person in the room mostly likely to be contagious will be hovering over you. Just saying it was a potential exposure I hadn’t thought about until recently.

Same point I was making above…

The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) made a startling pronouncement this week when he estimated the global mortality rate of the coronavirus to be 3.4 percent — much higher than the seasonal flu.

Experts warn that the figure from WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes full of caveats and is likely to change as more people get tested and undergo treatment for the virus.

"I think it's lower because we are missing mild cases," said Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. "We should be preparing for [the worst] cases, it's true, but also going out to see what the real number is."

You got a serotonin hit from the sugar. You felt better. But feeling better is not being better. If feeling better made you better, then opium, heroin, cocaine, meth, etc. would all make you better. They don’t. You feel better TEMPORARILY but you wind up worse in the long run as a consequence. One of the most sure ways of depressing your immune system is ingesting large amounts of sugar. But we live in a society of sugar addicts who let their emotions triumph over their reason and then wonder what the heck happened when they come down with infectious diseases, diabetes, heart problems, depression, anxiety, dementia, etc. They did it to themselves.

I liked this one, has a catchy song too.

It is about time we humans all started to shave off all the hair on our heads, including mowing the eyebrow hairs very short, and embrace all the advantages of doing so!
No hat hair. No wind hair. No hair in eyes. No tangled hair. No need to pay money to cut and style hair. No need of shampoo, combs, brushes…etc. Hats fit better and stay on better…and you get to have all sorts of them. No danger of people grabbing it to control your head…as where the head goes…the body follows…in a fight.
Besides, we would all look more science-fictionie…in our pandemic garb! It completes the “Mad Scientist” fashion statement!
I suggest getting a pair of MIRRORED contact lens, so your eyes can look like they are made of chrome ball-bearings, while providing UV protection. Plus, one could take liquid white latex and coat the skin on their head and face to enhance the look, while adding a virus/germ proof coating. For individuality, we could all print colorful logos on our protection suits and on our smooth, white, latex covered foreheads. This way we could recognize others at great distances and in crowds.
Since public touching will be considered shockingly impolite, if not a crime…public displays of affection will become a misdemeanor, as will hand-shaking, and status bowing will become the new social acknowledgement between individuals and to groups…just like in traditional Japan.
Public bathrooms will have powerful UVC lights installed in them, which will activate after each use for the required time to disinfect a stall, before the next party can gain entry to it.
Women, I guess, could shave…then wear specially designed wigs, which prevent virus contamination of their synthetic fibers. Such could be created in fantastic styles and colors…including being made with fine optical fibers, which transmit UVC at 238.5 nano meters.
Brave New World.
Evolution In Action.

We already have a shortage of hair cutters out here in far eastern Oregon. Several years ago I bought a nice set of rechargeable clippers off Amazon. Every four to six months, I buzz off the shag. Ision said he shaves his head for pandemics. Probably because hair is a magnet for droplets, arisols and pathogens. So, maybe go post modern and do it yourself.

Yes, you can wear a mask and eye glass style protection. You stylist will make that accommodation if they want your business. If they are unwilling to respect your choices I believe that tells you all you need to know about your stylist. Remember, theirs is a service industry. They are being paid to serve you. (Rant off)