U.S. financial regulators start contingency planning as virus reaches Washington
“As New York banks start triggering their contingency plans, their watchdogs have also begun to take precautions, allowing more home-working, cancelling and limiting travel, calling off conferences, and restricting some external meetings.”
"Reuters also reported on Friday that the U.S. Federal Reserve had taken the unusual step of quarantining U.S. dollars it receives from Asia for up to 10 days. "
“The agencies are also grappling with other issues, including how companies should disclose financial risks created by the virus, and which trading and lending rules may need to be relaxed to accommodate the disruption.”
“On Friday, the Fed said it was considering how it could encourage financial firms to ease loan repayment terms for people adversely affected by the virus.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-regulators/u-s-financial-regulators-start-contingency-planning-as-virus-reaches-washington-idUSKBN20T2WH
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214
Read the limitations section and decide how much to believe the results, but it shows no difference in infection rates of those protected by the two different masks.
Hat tip to my mom, intrepid researcher and retired microbiologist for this link.
Again anyone can pretend to be a chartest. But we won’t go there for now. Chris has said over and over - its very hard to interpret these numbers - until its done - but if yo have something deadly and dont assume that first by the time you realize it too late. This at face value appears more deadly than the flu - it also does have a higher complication rate- and those that are severe , doctors face tough obstacles in treatment ( more than the flu by far ) So, getting back to CFR - he has cautioned many times about the numbers. But the last video , i was not crazing about rationing the deaths by recovered… However, these too numbers are relevant. As the problem lies in the lag and length of illness with this . time from infection and diagnosis till time in death. That is what he was pointing out - as I have said many times , for instance - when dr Li died on Feb 6 … he was a case diagnosed on Jan 10. So when were dividing deaths on feb 6 by cases on feb 6 , you see that problem easily… What we needed to do is divide the deahts on feb 6 by the cases on jan 10 because most dead by that date were sick back in early jan. those other cases found by feb 6 may takes 3-4 weeks to die or resolve. That would actually blow the CFR ski high - as it was 2.5% anyway. using that bad data… it was effectively higher. ( then you have those not counted… ) so , authorities are having you believe the 2.5 number is wrong and only lower because uncounted cases. but, no way is there a lag according to officials… you see that double talk? chris has pointed this out many times , even charting to show you how a week lag can make a 6% CFR look like 2.5% , but this is actually greater than that… So, the true CFR is probably around 15% before we account for uncounted cases.
All of this is moot. Because we will never have a good closed sample… Though we do… Its the disaster princess - there is finite amount of people on that boat… We will have finite amount sick… you could never say,. oh there un counted cases… there are only so many people on the boat. So, they have diagnosed about 700 and have about 7 dead. that is 1%. my guess because everyone ill has not recovered - it will only go higher - you cannot take deaths off the board. and you can only raise the cases. But this can only happen so long. This random sample is a good control to get real CFR and severe numbers from. But , i am not sure how much will be given to the public. For example. We will get deaths. and we will get cases, but we get current severe - which is not total severe… so for instance when someone dies or recovers they are moved from the current severe, and the next guy is moved into severe. so at any given time we may have 35 severe cases. but through the duration , total severe cases could have been 70 or even 110. before all are resolved or dead. at the 35 severe… and 7 dead. you can 42 severe/ out of 700. minimally. So that is about 6%. but it could easily be double or triple this if you apply the revolving door. then you have as many as 12-18%.
So using the disaster princess - we can surmise a few things for certain. One is the CFR is a minimum of 1% and only likely to move higher. And the severe is at least 6% and only like to be at least twice this to take middle road of possible. So this is way more deadly than the flu by about 20 times. And it has a complication rate about 15 times the flu as well. and likely 6 times as many people will be infected. I think this is clear no matter how you want to hack into the numbers. But from an early on stand point because the length and course of illness is so long - you can only use recovered vs death - as all others are unresolved… and have no outcome so you cannot make any assertions on those yet. That was the only point to the video.
ONE HUGE CAVEAT, I like the disaster princess finite sample. However, I do think that it will have a better CFR than real. Simply because of the media, and official importance given to this group of people… They are celebrity status and I can assure you they are getting better care and more resources by the medical community because its very high-profile and everyone is watching this…
It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.
Ihave said this many times - that I think the surgical masks are effective to some degree. They will keep normal spittle and drops from contacting your face and mouth area. These are infectious… of course a cough or sneeze near you can be more atomized… but again it will pick up some of it… ( if you are in high concentration , close contact if will not matter , neither will work ) But from having a conversation with a bank teller , postal worker , shopekeeper, you will be protected - from normal public that may have recently been sick or pre-sick. without a huge cough - it will also protect you from touching face and such after surfaces… so there is protection there as well. SO there is protection with both masks. but neither is a hazmat suit. To that end, this study is on the flu, Though this may be smaller and aerosolized easier… the primary spread i blieve is by contact… as the flu is… and do expect to see a reduction in transimisson with warmer mos. as it is harder for viruses to survive on surfaces… ( just a reduction - not complete dissapearance. )
This is a discussion about how to interpret available data. It’s not a gladiatorial contest. It’s not about strong men stumbling or doing deeds or anything of that nature. It’s a discussion about logic, rational thought, data and how best to assess evidence and draw sensible conclusions.
I think Chris is no longer drawing good conclusions from the evidence and so I have said so.
Chris says - honey badger / not the flu / reinfection / scary / scary / sell all stocks / prep like hell.
I say - virulence 2-5x that of the flu / spreads easily + no immunity so can overhwelm hospitals / but as long as we keep R low so that there are enough hospital beds this isn’t going to do much damage / buy Chinese stock market now.
I think Chris stopped acting and thinking like a scientist a while back. He is not using the data to challenge his assumptions, but instead seeking out and giving preference to data which supports his pre-existing views. He is also interpreting it selectively.
In general I agree with Chris on many issues and I have visited this site many times over the years. I think it’s a great site and Chris is a fine man. But he’s lost the plot on this one - and when someone’s lost the plot - someone has to tell him. Then he can choose whether or not to listen.
Barbara, I already posted on this once before but will mention it again. You can sterilize your vegetables with a little bleach water just by mixing a weak solution in a sink of water and letting them soak. My wife used to do that African style since all the ladies worried about the food they brought home.
The problems in African fresh food markets are legion and far too innumerable to mention but anytime other people have handled the food as they select for the best pieces, it can and does become contaminated. You will know exactly what I mean by just watching anyone pick through tomatoes. They literally pick up each one, rotate it around for viewing, squeeze it and then take the next. Every single tomato you eventually buy will have been handled by several people before you arrived including the folks who picked it, packed it and transported it.
Well, when you live in a place where air andwater borne illnesses are rampant and hand washing is not done very rigorously, simple food shopping becomes a risk. Hepatitis A comes to mind. Anyway, the ladies would bleach their vegetables when they got home in a plastic tub full of water because washing some of them by hand is just not very efficient. Like broccoli and cauliflowers.
The mix is not really very strong but you can smell it. The strength is about equivalent to the chlorine treatment in a swimming pool. In other words, it kills all the bacteria, viruses and protozoa that are living on your food without being a danger to your health. You will have to look up a bleach mix online. If recall it was a couple teaspoons for 20 liters of water and that is plenty strong for fresh food disinfection. And then the ladies just let it sit for half an hour before setting it aside on the shelves.
It sounds crazy but it works.
I would just add, for anyone planning on traveling to Africa anytime soon…NEVER eat a salad there. Don’t even ask. Just trust me on this. LOL
In the last video, Chris was very clear as he showed how some countries like Singapore and Korea are staving off the hockey stick through their testing and intervention strategies. We in the US are not acting like these countries… so we are in for a true shit show as a result as this thing spreads exponentially, under the surface. What in the world are you talking about?
I am not criticizing you for criticizing Chris… I am criticizing your argument.
Wow, those Honey Badgers are incredible. Smartest animals on the planet maybe? I don’t think I have ever seen anything quite like it before. So the badger escapes confinement is the theme. Now I get it. Thanks Chris.
I joined (just one month for now) hoping that PP “premium” forum would have a wealth of discussions on the market impacts, both short and long term. I’m surprised how little financial discussion there is and will probably end my “premium” sub. Of course being a Newbie maybe I’ve not looked in the correct place?
FWIW, I think there will be continued negative sentiment on the market for some months yet and we will see a big list of companies with profit warnings. So far I’ve,
- Moved from equities into cash
- Moved from Plat/Silver to Gold (reduce the exposure to industrial demand weakness)
- Taken a (small) short geared position on the Oz / US markets so I can work out how these geared negatively correlated ETF’s work (this is a new one for me).
What I’d love to see is a robust conversation on topics like: - What investment classes to avoid
- What investment classes to accumulate
- What timing makes sense over the coming days, weeks, months to move between investment classes
For all I know, the best strategy may be to dig a hole and pull it over the top … but life will go on, and I thought part of the value prop of PP was to preserve and enhance wealth though such major impact as COVID-19.
@RebelYell - I’m not sure the SSE looks like a good buy at present. It is trading around 9mth highs.
I agree with you Sparky. With millions of page views, thousands of new subscribers and ever growing demand its probably time Chris hired himself an experienced webmaster to fix a few site bugs. The volunteers can’t seem to get it done. This thumbs up bug is already a couple weeks old. Once this Covid19 really picks up I will bet this site will be so overloaded with views it will start getting frozen. such is success.
Can someone translate this for me? How long does elderberry last in your system from when you take it?
Pharmacokinetic variables of several dietary anthocyanins (potent natural antioxidants) following consumption of elderberry (Sambucus nigra L.) extract were evaluated in urine and plasma of six healthy volunteers. They were given a single oral dose of either 30 ml (278 mg total anthocyanins) or 200 ml (1852 mg total anthocyanins) of a commercially available elderberry extract. Within 7 h, the fraction of orally administered total anthocyanins (calculated as the sum of cyanidin-3-sambubioside and cyanidin-3-glucoside) excreted unchanged was 0.39% and 0.27% following ingestion of 30 and 200 ml, respectively. The elimination half-life of total anthocyanins was slightly lower following the consumption of 278 mg (1.85 h) than that after the consumption of 1852 mg (2.57 h). The renal clearance (median) of total anthocyanins was 196 and 169 ml/min, respectively. The peak and average systemic exposure to the major elderberry anthocyanidin glycosides in plasma as well as their renal excretion exhibited approximate dose-proportional characteristics within the administered range. The low dose-normalized area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) and the fraction of orally administered anthocyanins recovered unchanged in urine indicate a low bioavailability of these compounds. Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18040528
rebelyell
“This is a discussion about how to interpret available data. “
Then have a discussion but don’t start off by criticizing. Whats the goal? Help people, like Chris is doing, or to be right? You ended your discussion by stating how you were going to enrich your financial wealth from a bunch of good deals.
Don’t try to impress us with how much you know until you can show us much you care about - - - people!!!
Start your own site rather than attacking someone else’s.
I would much rather Chris and team spend time helping us than nit-picking minutia.
It looks like the body clears elderberry pretty quickly, half-life within two hours or so. Still, we know from a real randomized, placebo-controlled study that 15ml of syrup, 4X daily, is fantastically effective at quickly reducing flu symptoms.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15080016
For now I am using a few smaller (maybe 5 ml) doses a day, in tea. It’s getting hard to find the syrup now at the Walmart near me… always sold out.
VP Pence says 21 coronavirus cases on California Grand Princess cruise ship
“The ship, which was on a two-week voyage to Hawaii, was ordered to return early to San Francisco, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Thursday, adding that passengers and crew developed symptoms. A spokesman for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that three passengers who were previously on the ship have tested positive, including one who has died.”
“46 persons were swabbed, 21 of those on the ship tested positive for the coronavirus. 24 tested negative. One test was inconclusive,” Pence said alongside other members of the White House COVID-19 task force at a news briefing. “All passengers and crew will be tested for the coronavirus. Those who need to be quarantined will be quarantined.”’
“Only passengers and crew who have symptoms and people who were guests on the ship’s previous voyage were tested, the company previously said in a statement, which was 46 people, Pence said Friday.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/vp-pence-says-21-people-on-the-grand-princess-cruise-ship-off-california-coast-have-tested-positive-for-coronavirus.html
The low dose-normalized area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) and the fraction of orally administered anthocyanins recovered unchanged in urine indicate a low bioavailability of these compounds.I don't have time at the moment to provide sources, but the benefits of anthocyanins come from their interaction with the microbiome in the gut (gut bacteria). It doesn't really matter if they are absorbed into the bloodstream or how long they last there. Their positive effect on the immune system is mediated through the gut bacteria. Hope this helps.
60 From Boston Hotel Head To Hospital To Test For Coronavirus
“Dozens of people are making their way from a hotel to Brigham and Women’s Hospital, prompting a road closure to make it easier for them.”
“[Brigham Women’s Hospital] has it under control, but please avoid the area the rest of the day,” the email said."
“The Massachusetts Department of Public Health asked Brigham and Women’s Hospital to assist in testing individuals who attended the Biogen conference in Boston last week for COVID-19.”
“We have activated our central ambulatory screening and testing plan and will test patients outside of the hospital in the ambulance bay,” a hospital spokesperson said in an email statement."
https://patch.com/massachusetts/boston/60-boston-hotel-head-hospital-test-coronavirus