https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39956 I read this. Quick summary. Standard surgical mask material 0% effective at stopping Corona virus aerosols but after being treated with salt water became 100% effective. This does not deal with leakage around sides though but if nothing else you could silicon them on!!
CFR is different depending on how you choose define it. One could use sub scripts like CFR( total infections ) or CFR ( diagnosed cases)
As there is insufficient testing capacity to regularly test everyone this CFR( total infected) is unknowable at present. It would be useful to know how many asymptomatic spreaders there are but very hard to find out at present
For CFR (diagnosed cases) the WHO and others imply they are using are really stating a different One CFR ( Diagnosed cases excluding ones diagnosed yet to die from the dead total but including them in total cases )
The CFR I run with by default is of diagnosed cases. But you cannot just use total dead divided by total cases. One must account for the ones that have just been diagnosed but will die. Doing it this way gives me a CFR of over 8%Looking at smaller subgroups statistical certainty is lower but can be useful in trying to spot trends in other similar sub groups. One such small sub group could be those treated before the hospitals become overloaded but is not of much use for the bulk of cases that happen through most of the pandemic.
I am sure chris is aware of this. The point is you could use that metric to more accurately assess than what ever wants to do. divide current cases by deaths.
They did demonstrate an increased affinity to hold virus aerosols. This was not a sanitizing action… but I believe more of an ionic static charge barrier. This may increase the filteration of the mask. but, when you are talking about aerosols - u need a mask that seals completely - so its probably moot. are you a health worker? if not, a standard mask still reduces trasmission from and to the wearer. for low concentration normally appearing low symptomatic contact with individuals
@Jim H
I’m not clear exactly what it is that I have said that you disagree with. To be clear my bones of contention with Chris are
- CFR is way lower than he is suggesting. My interpretation of the evidence is for CFR of 0.2% - 0.8%. Chris seems to be suggesting >2%.
- CFR for people under 60 will be negligible.
- The balance of probability is that neither Italy nor Iran nor anywhere else are subject to a more dangerous strains of the virus, the cause of the apparent difference in fatality rate is merely less accurate data and, in the case of Italy, a significantly older population
- R0 is probably in the range of ~3, not 4.7 - 6.7
- Aerosol spread, while possible, is probably not happening to a huge degree.
- The effect on the economy will be relatively limited and has largely already happened.
- I do not think people need to stock large amounts of food, bottled water, and toilet paper or prepare to self-isolate for months.
- You should not be selling all stock market rallies (at least not because of the corona virus - there is a reasonable argument that US stocks are overvalued and should be sold anyway), and in particular some Chinese stocks are great values now.
I agree that steps need to be taken to slow the spread or it is likely our hospitals will be overwhelmed and some older people will die unnecessarily. I agree that the government response so far has been inadequate. Schools should be closed, large gatherings banned, people should work from home, and wash hands frequently etc. But those measures, if implemented now and combined with adequate testing capability being available very soon will be sufficient to manage this, and the cost will be limited.
Could you let me know specifically which of my criticisms you disagree with?
@AKGrannyWGrit
“Then have a discussion but don’t start off by criticizing.”
I have posted several times to these discussion boards. This is the first criticism.
“Whats the goal? Help people, like Chris is doing, or to be right?”
The goal is indeed to help people. I don’t think Chris is helping people at this point because, in my view, his advice is based on faulty analysis and is therefore wrong. I couldn’t give two hoots who wins the argument. FWIW you can look back at my messages from a few weeks ago and see that I came to exactly the same conclusions as Chris. But the new data has changed my mind. Finding the truth is important and you only do that by feedback and criticism. I might turn out to be wrong. I’ve been wrong many times in my life - and I’ve been right some times too. No doubt I will be both wrong and right again - but you seem to be suggesting that I shouldn’t criticize because Chris is helpful and therefore criticizing him isn’t helpful. That doesn’t really make any sense to me.
If you don’t like the substance of my criticism - fine - disagree with it and tell me where my logic falls down. But don’t tell me I mustn’t criticize because it’s not helpful.
“You ended your discussion by stating how you were going to enrich your financial wealth from a bunch of good deals.”
I included a discussion on financial strategies because Chris has advised people to “sell all rallies”. I think this is not a good strategy at this point and may well end up hurting people more than helping them. Again my aim is to rpovide another perspective in order to help people. FWIW I sold all my stocks and bought gold in 2006-2007. By 2011 I was mighty pleased with myself. It took until 2017 for me to realize that I wasn’t all that smart after all :-).
“Don’t try to impress us with how much you know until you can show us much you care about – – – people!!!”
I’m not trying to impress anyone. How can I? I’m just a few words on a screen. The only reason I’m posting is because I think that Chris is incorrectly interpreting tha data, and that following some of his advice - especially the financial advice - will hurt people.
“Start your own site rather than attacking someone else’s.”
Huh? So are you suggesting that only people who agree with everything Chris says should post here? Or that if people want to express dissenting opinions they need to start their own site to do it? Aren’t these discussion forums? And don’t discussions involve - well - discussion?
Thanks,
Rebel
PS If either of you wishes to suggest that my communication style might benefit from substituting more tact and diplomacy for blunt forthrightness then that’s a criticism I would be prepared to accept.
Well stated! It’s up to Chris to choose or not to debate you.
AKGranny
Forum software is killing me. Doesn’t seem to be about size of post either.
Here’s the updated post on sanitation, ppe and self quarantine, with off site links to the full threads. Got prevented from posting after I put this up. I’ll have to post the other one tomorrow evening.
https://peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/covid-19-sanitation-ppe-and-self-quarantine-megathread/
Rebel said, “CFR for people under 60 will be negligible”. As one who is about 60, I don’t consider 1.3% as, “negligible”, especially as compared to the normal flu. For my cohort, that is 20X the flu death rate based on this data. As well, this thing is much more transmissible which means our system will likely be overwhelmed (which you don’t disagree with I gather). The net result is the absolute number of deaths for folks >/= 60 will likely be quite high. I just don’t see any reason in the data to be comforted, to not stock up and plan for quarantine, etc., etc.
As for being nice, or tactful, I am the least nice and tactful person you will find around here… so I would be the last to ask that of you. Stay healthy, Jim
Link to data: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3
Jim,
I’m well north of 50 myself. The 1.3% fatality rate you quote comes from this study of ~70,000 Chinese cases http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51.
This is a good study in that it includes a large number of patients and does not suffer from unresolved cases or time lag issues. However, in my view it likely considerably overstates the actual case fatality rate because
(1) It almost certainly undercounts people suffering mild or no symptoms. These people never showed up to be tested or counted. From the Diamond Princess we know that 50% of cases experience no symptoms at all. During the period of this study people with no symptoms at all were simply not tested - so you can halve the CFR right there. And we know in fact that for much of the early stages of the outbreak the Chinese were not able to test large numbers of people with mild symptoms in Hubei either although people with more serious symptoms were much more likely to be tested. So again you need to reduce the rate calculated from this study substantially.
(2) It includes all the Hubei patients as well as other areas from China and we know that the Hubei hospitals were swamped and therefore many patients were not able to receive adequate medical care. As a result far more of these patients died than would have done had adequate care been available.
I continue to believe that the Diamond Princess is the best case study we have because everyone was tested no matter how mild their symptoms, or even if they had no symptoms at all. It is not clear what the average age of the 760 infected patients is or was, but it’s likely to be well over 50 (back of an envelope reasoning in earlier post). The fatality rate was 0.85%. Not a single patient under the age of 70 died.
Provided that we take enough mitigation measures (closing schools, no large gatherings, work from home etc.) that our hospitals don’t get swamped then my guess is that the CFR for someone aged 50-59 without comorbidities will end up being below 0.5% and quite possibly less than half that.
Good discussion. It’s hard to know which data set is telling the story that is most applicable to us in the US. One can make arguments that are comforting using certain datasets… or I can say that the 10 deaths that have already been recorded out of the 69 old folks at the Kirkland, WA senior care facility (14.5 %) lines up pretty darn well with the 80+ bar in the histogram I presented, leading me to ask why should I question the rest of the data. This assumes everyone got infected, which is probably not true, which means the true (CFR) death rate in that facility will be horrendous.
These arguments are maybe of little value, which is why I spend much of my extra time researching means to improve my health and immunity, and sharing the best ideas here.
RO
“There are a host of studies on the R0 number. Most are extremely error prone as they are based on highly questionable data and highly questionable assumptions. Chris focuses only on those reports which conclude the highest possible value of R0.”
Well thank god! It appears that many official sites focus on the absolute lowest possible value to the detriment of we the people. Putting us at risk. It almost seems like the officials want a lot of us to die.
Economic Impact
“China likely over-reacted to the disease and their economy has clearly been impacted. That will have a knock on effect. However I think that this whole thing will largely blow over in a few weeks and any impact will quickly recede into memory.”
Over-reacting to a lot of people dying. Is that possible? You state that like it’s just a statistic not as a tragedy.
“However I think that this whole thing will largely blow over in a few weeks and any impact will quickly recede into memory.”
Wow. That sounds really cold, we can forget all the people that died, not just died but suffered and died! Forget how our jobs were off-shored to China and now, oh golly we should feel sorry for the Corporations that are so greedy and short sighted they are experiencing a tiny bit of pain. How about the people. This might quickly recede into your memory but not mine or a lot of those who were affected. And definitely not those who are morning the loss of a loved one!!!
Lastly,
“I am a buyer of Chinese airlines, travel agencies, hotel chains etc. The bargains available are astonishing. I’m not sure I have enough balls to buy crusie lines though – which probably means they’re even better deals :-).”
Well holy shit, a really rich dude! Obviously you are highly educated and wicked smart. And articulate too. My instincts and your posts seem to indicate to me you are disingenuous. Your posts objective does not come across as compassionate and concerned but rather to undermine.Instead of buying an airline, how about easing the misery and suffering that ever so many people are experiencing. Or, will this all blow over in a few weeks and quickly recede into your memory ...... Value as a human being is, or should be, how much we ease the suffering of others. Value and judgement of a persons character not the size of their wallet. “PS If either of you wishes to suggest that my communication style might benefit from substituting more tact and diplomacy for blunt forthrightness then that’s a criticism I would be prepared to accept.” My criticism would be your communication seems to lack genuine compassion and empathy. Dissapointed - Granny
Hi DavidSV,
Thanks for the reply. That’s an interesting angle. I’ve heard Chris mention the subscription problem but I don’t think he’s linked that to the name change, which is more because he’s unhappy with the WHO work. But I’ll accept that.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/184574/deaths-by-influenza-and-pneumonia-in-the-us-since-1950/
https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/influenza-pneumonia/by-country/
Whew. Why don’t you let me have it with both barrels? Is it possible you might be mistaken?
Rebel
Absolutely!
And I look forward to future posts where I will be able to see compassion and empathy. From quite a few actually.
The reality is this Pandemic is about “people”. I see a lot of talk about statistics, finances and supplies. Very little about “people” and thats a shame.
Having lived in China for 11 years and being married to a Chinese woman from China, we are regularly in contact with people all over China. No one is reporting shortages of TP or groceries, in fact grocery supply lines are one of the few things that are operating there. Good luck finding an open restaurant, though. Although I think prepping to a certain degree is helpful, hoarding and going crazy is just fueling hysteria and panic right here in the USA. Also, according to Chinese-American physician friends in Beijing (these friends have no reason to exaggerate or downplay), new cases in Beijing Metro (19 million) are down to the single digits in the past 2-3 days.
[Sparky1 comment: All about the money and perception management. Kinda like the Fed’s “Not QE” QE $120B per day repo funding.]
As virus outbreaks multiply, UN declines to declare pandemic
“The World Health Organization has so far resisted describing the crisis as such, saying the word “pandemic” might spook the world further and lead some countries to lose hope of containing the virus.”
‘“Unless we’re convinced it’s uncontrollable, why (would) we call it a pandemic?” WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said this week."
“On Friday, the virus hit a new milestone, infecting more than 100,000 people worldwide, far more than those sickened by SARS, MERS or Ebola in recent years.”
‘’“I think it’s pretty clear we’re in a pandemic and I don’t know why WHO is resisting that,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.“”
“Experts acknowledge that declaring a pandemic is politically fraught because it can rattle markets, lead to more drastic travel and trade restrictions and stigmatize people coming from affected regions. WHO was previously criticized for labeling the 2009 swine flu outbreak a pandemic. But experts said calling this crisis a pandemic could also spur countries to prepare for the virus’s eventual arrival.”’
https://apnews.com/16cd6173232a01ec04780db3eea4de79
India’s beleaguered health system braces for virus surge
“India is bracing for a potential explosion of coronavirus cases as authorities rush to trace, test and quarantine contacts of 31 people confirmed to have the disease.”
“It is screening international travelers at 30 airports and has already tested more than 3,500 samples. The Indian army is preparing at least five large-scale quarantine centers.”
“Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government said last week that community transmission is now taking place. India has shut schools, stopped exporting key pharmaceutical ingredients and urged state governments to cancel public festivities for Holi, the Hindu springtime holiday in which people douse each other with colored water and paint.”
“Experts fear these precautions won’t be enough for India’s beleaguered, under-funded and under-staffed health system to stave off an epidemic.”
https://apnews.com/668fb152281c390145e650e3e53ed547
Thanks Sparky. Well thank goodness its not just me who has lost patience with that organization. When I think back to all the times I heard or read comments from various leaders and health care professionals parroting the WHO lines I realize they are indeed seen as the voice of authority on the subject. But in this one situation they have let everyone down, starting with that first big press conference about the situation in China. You could have driven that Princess Cruise Line right through the middle of the gaping hole in the credibility gap.
Experts unsure if ‘cured’ COVID-19 patients are re-infected or relapsed
[edit: bold added]
‘“There is a distinction between relapse – where a patient could be temporarily asymptomatic, only to have the flu-like symptoms of COVID-19 return – and reinfection. For reinfection, a person would be ruled cured of the virus, and then catch it again, likely from another source, or perhaps with a different strain.”’
“According to Justin Lessler, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, reinfection is possible with other coronaviruses – and may be with COVID-19.”
‘“Nothing is known specifically for COVID-19,” he said, adding, that “it is unlikely reinfection could occur so rapidly that we would see it in the current epidemic wave.”’
"If reinfection does occur, he said, “it is likely that subsequent infections would be more mild.”'
‘“The U.S. doesn’t have sufficient testing capacity now,” he said. “Even with 1.5 million tests available, as Vice President Mike Pence has promised, you still need 1.5 million pairs of hands of trained personnel to administer to them. It’s tough enough at the moment for us to be figuring out exactly who is infected. The question of reinfection is almost a second-order issue.”’
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/03/06/Experts-unsure-if-cured-COVID-19-patients-are-reinfected-or-relapsed/8101583529793/?ds=4