Adam, I was stunned but not surprised at the headline from the thread at all. If anything the full podcast only reiterated what has been the dominant theme here in our community for 12 years. Had we stayed the course from the beginning featured articles of that day then we would have lost a fortune. Thankfully many of us did not. All the experts then, basically sound just like the ones today. Good Folks who just got it mostly wrong but can hang their hat on their opinions because some day it may just happen but for way different reasons. Still, mentally, they will be vindicated.
Everything said and opinioned today was stated 12 years ago and that’s important to understand. This is a huge economy and takes a long, long time to turn around. Public settiment or investor sentiment is what changes markets and with all the stimulous fiscal and by the Fed and the anticipation of more and the end of Covid is what people see, investor see and can put pencil to paper feels like that 2021 will be the greatest year in stock market history, These are some serious tail winds and it isn’t a suprise that what Trump did the other day did nothing to the market that sees 6 months ahead. Strangely, I thought the 68 convention in Chicago was way worse than what I saw this past week. Nixon, JFK killing, Bobby Kennedy, Martin Luther King, the riots of 67, Malcolm X, German Sheppard’s eating the arms and legs off of black people, water cannons, 08-09 Financial Crisis and now Covid, the list goes on and on. This country is resilient as hell, no doubt about that and we have been through so much this year that we are desensitizes by it all. I think for us who haven’t gotten sick or tested positive feels great about this but still, the pressure and the mutations and the vaccine roll out and the disinformation, best practices and the bullshit from Fauci, the FDA, Hydra and Vermectin and the truth but no serious mention as a viable strategy. My God, Vitamin C and they can’t see the obvious, the data. and the WHO and China and, and, and. Now Trump and his bazar leadership, I mean, what a forking kook. So I won’t go out and change anything that I haven’t researched first, trusted my gut on because had I followed the experts I wouldn’t be in the position now that I am. Incidentally through everything Barb and I have had a good time with this. We have planned and talk and busted ass, took risks and are rewarded then now we are but a few months from the completion of a life long dream plus having little debt is a beautiful thing from two folks who did a good job raising and providing for our son’s and now are just beginning the best part of our lives is simply cool. We all fully understand that a day is coming when a correction will really mess with our cash but, I believe the first half of the year is all I need. Then it’s building time and all cash will be out of the market but a nice chunk will still be in the oil space and will get my full attention still. I just believe what Art has said is the truth so I’m going with it because it would be a nice cash add that I’m willing to risk. It would be an imbalance of not enough Supply to Demand ratio and oil will be way higher than thought. That’s a lot of profit worthy of the risk.
Difficult to understand of course is the 2 trillion in stimulus that hasn’t fully deployed from the early year stimulus, little of the roughly 1 trillion just passed is in the market today and I dare guess another 2 trillion in stimulus just days after Biden takes office will even be deployed for yet another 6 to 12 months from now.
Add to this the vaccine will finally get some serious action and into our arms in a massive injection of vaccines going forward thus making it possible to open the economy and get things rolling and of course all the stimulus may not be enough so a really big one can be planned for so that we force feed a strong injection so that every corner of our country will begin to do the things they used to. This is not when inflation will begin to make a move and not until the 20 odd million people without a job and those others that rely on welfare and food stamps get off the role, start getting jobs and begin paying taxes that anything close to normal or high inflation can even exist. It’s all about the vaccine and then the stimulus and then lowering the high employment. Demand for everything is going up, especially the travel industry which by the way will start by being dominated by energy, specifically oil.
So, I do believe we will get a strong pullback in the future, my gut doesn’t share that 65 to 80 percent but what do I know. I don’t even think we get this type of correction perhaps for years with all the cash in play, and destruction that has already occurred because of covid and because of all the personal changes everyone has made in their lives continuing into the future because of Covid., This world has changed, a lot and our habits have changed, a lot. What this does going forward will play out differently than we all think. Rip up the history books because the future will not be like the past. My God, is it time now to roll out Robots, AI!? My God, we are living in different times and I’m excited to see it all happen. To be allowed to watch it unfold. None of us is smart enough to understand what all that means not even the Great Reset do goobers. I have read way more than needed about this Reset and I have no belief that they can pull this off.
I will on May 1st pull all my cash out of equities. I will remain fully loaded up as I have been in oil and that has worked out unbelievably well. I will then build my Cabin with the the cash I have set aside but, that was yesterdays plan. I have begun by requesting a construction loan and then will mortgage the cabin when the home is complete. My reasoning is I have already about $70k in sweat equity in this project and will do a lot of the work myself so will get that back as well, plus the cash needed to complete the project. I will have a manageable payment and no other debt. I will have a mortgage around $210k and a nice piece put on top of my cash off to the side. where I will simply wait to deploy. I believe this strengthens my position for after the correction or rather crash to then redeploy all my assets basically in oil. Why? Oil is usually the first into a Depression and first out of a Depression and that will be a Dougy Kass moment. At some point we will hit bottom and from that point forward oil will be a monster profit play.
I have thought about this and thought about it and are fortunate that my priority is Barb’s wanting a home and I agree, time to get that done so it will. It is the reason for this plan, to make sure the cash is there to do it irrespective of what happens in the market. We have no issues with Barb losing her job and tremendous salary so we will be able to set some heavy wages aside and wait for the time when things look brightest. I still will maintain my position in oil and believe me it’s a heavy commitment.
One last point: No disrespect to our guest but he could be wrong at the size of the correction, it could be 25% and that looks a lot less frightening and if the Fed and Fiscal policy to halt such a dramatic drop then they will have thrown a zillion dollars at the problem perhaps before it even gets started and thus changes the trajectory. He is right about one thing for sure, this correction will hit every corner of the globe and the Demand coming out of it will look like 2008-09. and we will really do well into the turn around this time too.
My only goal is to be self sufficient, for me to be a bit risky but get out on a pre determined date. Basically I have been living off the VIX and it is for me the most useful data point of every day I do this. It’s a profound forward indicator.
I love, absolutely love doing what I do, I listen intently to all honored guests but I don’t know their book, I have no idea their integrity, their character or the reason’s they do what they do. So, I do my work, make my own decisions and then I can live with the results. I’m not saying he’s not a wonderful Man but I have lived this life a long time and when push comes to shove everyone will do what they can live with, they will talk up their book and then sell every share as their leaving your home. I guess I’m saying I don’t really trust completely, why? Like I said, my decisions I can live with. I like the finger pointed at me, then Man up.
I love your weekend segment because it’s usually a bit extreme and I love giving my biases a good kick often so I don’t get complacent. 65 or 80% drop would be a monster of an event so I take it very seriously even though my biases says but, we have already thrown 3 trillion at this beast that hasn’t even been rolled out fully yet, another two million soon and probably 2 trillion on infrastructure with another 3 trillion from the private sector. That’s a lot of dollars, employment, spin off economy, oil, etc… I am always going to do oil first, middle and last. I love oil, I understand it and by June I expect I will have benefitted to my wildest dreams. frankly just duplicate from October until today and I may just get out of this completely but, I love it. I’ll just go really conservative, still play oil or start getting into other things I have been watching for a long time that I follow from my watch list. I jumped in PLUG a while back and that has panned out so we’ll see. I pretty much am an energy investor.
Good Luck Folks, I truly wish you all the best. BOB…PS: I was notified by my hospital here in Michigan that I will be scheduled for my vaccine shot within the next week, I cannot wait.
