AI 5% of US Power Demand and Rising as Oil Production Set to Decline, Economic Warning Signs Abound

Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/daily-digest/ai-5-of-us-power-demand-and-rising-as-oil-production-set-to-decline-economic-warning-signs-abound/

Energy

Data centers, driven by the growth of AI, reportedly now account for 5% of total U.S. power demand, a figure projected to double within five years, according to industry estimates, placing strain on energy infrastructure. Yet, some reports highlight that data center efficiency has improved, and companies are increasingly adopting renewable energy to offset consumption, tempering concerns about sustainability.

In the oil sector, reports indicate a difficult outlook: U.S. onshore liquids production is expected to decline, with current activity reportedly insufficient to offset natural declines, while OPEC forecasts a reduction in U.S. shale output by 100,000 barrels per day in 2026 due to capital discipline and slower drilling momentum. U.S. rig counts are also declining, production is down year-over-year, and global demand is growing by approximately 1.3 million barrels per day annually, though both OPEC and the IEA predict a slowdown in oil demand growth to 0.7% annually, half the historical average, due to evolving mobility patterns. Some industry experts, however, suggest that technological advancements and potential price increases could mitigate U.S. shale declines, offering a counterpoint to OPEC’s projections. The EIA projects oil prices at $50 through 2026, despite reports of rigs shutting down at prices below $70.

Separately, India has ended its state monopoly on uranium, allowing private firms to engage in mining and imports to support a planned twelvefold nuclear expansion by 2047, with the goal of attracting significant investment, according to government announcements. Environmental groups, however, have raised concerns about safety and ecological risks, advocating for a focus on renewables instead, as noted in activist statements.

On the policy front, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has opposed a United Nations climate proposal for net zero emissions, stating it could harm American interests, as reported by official statements. Environmental organizations have criticized this stance, arguing it undermines global climate efforts, while supporters contend it protects U.S. economic priorities.

Economy

The U.S. economy is displaying signs of pressure across several metrics. The Warren Buffett Indicator, a measure of market valuation, has reached a record high of 212, the highest level on record, prompting some analysts to express concerns about potential overvaluation in equity markets, according to financial reports. However, some economists argue that factors like low interest rates and strong corporate earnings may justify current valuations, suggesting the indicator alone isn’t a definitive predictor of a market crash. Corporate bankruptcies have also risen, with 446 large filings year-to-date, the highest since 2010, including 71 in July alone, a number last seen during the 2020 crisis. Still, reports note that many of these filings involve restructuring rather than liquidation, and the broader economy shows resilience in areas like employment, offering a more nuanced view. Additionally, the Cleveland Fed’s New Tenant Rent Index, which tracks rents for new leases, is being cited by economists as a significant forward indicator for U.S. housing inflation, providing a different perspective compared to broader CPI data that includes continuing leases. Critics caution, however, that the index may not fully capture regional variations or renewal trends, potentially overestimating inflation in some areas, according to housing market analyses.

In the tech sector, representation within the S&P 500 has reached 35%, a record high that exceeds the peak of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, according to market data. This concentration contrasts with a decline in the healthcare sector’s weight to below 9%, the lowest since the 1990s, reflecting a notable shift in investor focus toward technology stocks, per financial analyses. Some analysts warn this heavy tech concentration could signal risks of a market correction, while others note undervalued opportunities in sectors like healthcare, offering a balanced perspective on current trends, according to market reports.

US Politics

In Texas, the state Senate has passed new district maps despite Democrat attempts to stop a vote, which some analysts suggest could add up to five Republican seats if approved by the House, according to political reports. The decision led to a walkout by Democrats, highlighting partisan divisions over redistricting efforts, as noted in coverage of the event. Democrats have criticized the maps as lacking transparency and potentially disenfranchising minority voters, vowing legal challenges, while Republican supporters argue they reflect strategic political planning.

Sources

Warren Buffett Indicator Hits Record High of 212, Signals Market Concerns

Ladies and gentlemens, The Warren Buffet indicator just hit 212, the highest number ever recorded.

Source

Cleveland Fed’s New Tenant Rent Index: A Leading Indicator for U.S. Housing Inflation

The Cleveland Fed’s New Tenant Rent Index is one of the most reliable forward indicators for U.S. housing inflation because it measures only new leases.

Source

Data Centers Now Consume 5% of US Power, Set to Double in 5 Years Due to AI Boom

Data center energy consumption has reached a record 5% of total US power demand.

Source

Tech Dominance Hits Record 35% in S&P 500, Surpassing Dot-Com Bubble Peak

‼️Not even the 2000 Dot-Com BUBBLE saw this: The Information Technology share in the S&P 500 hit a RECORD 35% – higher than the Dot-Com peak.

Source

Texas Senate Passes New U.S. House Maps as Democrats Stage Walkout

The Texas Senate has officially PASSED the new U.S. House Maps, as Democrats STORMED OUT of the chamber

Source

OPEC Forecasts U.S. Shale Decline in 2026 Amid Capital Discipline and Shifting Energy Trends

OPEC projects U.S. shale output will drop by 100,000 bpd in 2026.

Source

Oil’s Perfect Storm: Rig Counts Drop, Production Falls, and Demand Rises as EIA Predicts $50 Oil Through 2026

Oil’s perfect storm is brewing.

Source

Billions on the Move: Why Oil Demand Growth Is Slowing Down

According to OPEC and IEA this would lead to a slow down in oil demand growth.

Source

U.S. Onshore Liquids Production Set to Decline in 2024, EIA Reports

EIA saying the quiet part out loud.

Source

US Corporate Bankruptcies Surge to Recession Levels, Highest Since 2010

US large bankruptcies hit 446 year-to-date, the most since 2010, a year after the Financial Crisis.

Source

India Breaks Uranium Monopoly, Opens Mining to Private Firms for Nuclear Expansion

India is moving to end its state monopoly on uranium by letting private firms mine, import, and process fuel.

Source

Marco Marco Rubio Just Told the UN ‘No’ on Net Zero Emissions Proposal

The United States will not accept any environmental agreement that harms the interests of the American people.

Source

In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: Seeking Alpha, Reuters, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Housing Market Insights, GreenTech Media, Rystad Energy, Greenpeace India, The New York Times, TechCrunch, Texas Democrats and Texas GOP.

1 Like

Consider the following:

  • Per capita oil demand in OECD countries: ~15 barrels/year
  • OECD population: ~1.4 billion
  • Per capita oil demand in non-OECD countries: ~2 barrels/y
  • Non-OECD population: ~6.7 billion

In other words, 6.7 billion people are working to improve their standard of living and with it, their energy consumption.

Does that sound like a 50% slower demand growth?

This is apt viewpoint. However it comes down to do they have infrastructure and purchase power to do so. Or are there alternative “investments” that are more important than upgrading to car in household.

This recession policy works in curbing manufacturing as no demand means no factory is setup or expanded. Also no extra salary income locally.

This is interesting situation as 50$ is low level considering at same time expected increase in global consumption of oil.