Okay, so there is a virus going around. A CFR of ~3.8% doesn’t sound that bad. If we consider that average American we know, I would estimate the number of people with weakened immune systems across our population to be much higher then 3.8%. A lot of people simply eat inflammatory junk diets, don’t exercise, are over stressed, and don’t sleep good. Maybe in China those percentages are different, but those low percentages are probably not including a lot of healthy people. Let’s also consider the percentage of our population that are artificially kept alive by pharmaceuticals and medical augmentations (such as oxygen tanks and auto injections). Add in too young children, pregnant, and the elderly. So if you are in one of those categories, you should be worried.
If you are not in one of those categories, then what about making a case for “Bring it on and lets get this over with”. It certainly sucks to get the flu, but it sucks way more when you are not ready for it. So stock up on the elderberry syrup, take your vitamin C and D, making some good homemade soup, don’t be staying up late, and let’s get this over with. With a CFR of 3.8% I suspect we’ll be fine.
Just my humble thoughts.
Some angry words from Chris about the lack of coronavirus coverage in the mainstream media:
Thanks VegnDB12,
in answer to cytokine storm
The cytokine storm of severe influenza and development of immunomodulatory therapy. Free online
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26189369
LSS: it is very complicated, just as everyone has gaps in their immune surveillance, everyone has quirks in their genetic code that may predispose them to immune over-reaction (not to mention the ability of a virus to be especially virulent and exploitative of our immune response). For example a common mutation in TNF-alpha gene, rs1800629 aka A308G, causes upregulation in TNF alpha production which has been shown in large meta-analysis studies to increase inflammatory response. This is just one possibility out of likely dozens, if not, hundreds of genetic polymorphisms in all the various genes involved in adaptive and innate immunity and the pathways critical for supporting them.
In the Influenza pandemic of 1918, it was young, healthy adults (in a time before fast food and couch potato habits) who suffered the highest mortality. If I remember correctly, researchers found that older adults had some immune overlap protection from influenzas they expereinced as children. But every infection is different, and has its own natural history. How this plays out remains to be seen. Chinese are genetically different enough from Caucasians that it could turn out Caucasians are at less or greater risk. no one knows yet.In addition to Sand Puppy’s great post on staying at home if ill, I would add (especially if your lungs are your weak link)
A home nebulizer for glutathione breathing treatments. You can easily find them online for under $100.
In a doctor’s office, these breathing treatments are performed using a prepared glutathione aqueous solution made up of sterilized water and glutathione powder by a compounding pharmacy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9sGxhhzOjA
These treatments are expensive. People have figure out hacks to get around that. Read: home nebulizers, Glutathione powder, distilled water.
It is expensive, but less so then going to a doctors office for a treatment.
Also, kept tightly capped in the freezer, it is shelf stable for five years but it is very unstable when it is solubilized in aqueous solutions. Capsules with reduced glutathione may have other ingredients (incipients, flowing agents, etc that you want to avoid…but I think some people use them too).
Typical compounding pharmacy Rx for nebulizer glutathione; 100mg/ml 1 ml BID.
DIY /How to prepare:
In a small clean dish:
1/2 tsp distilled water
add 1/8 tsp glutathione powder
small pinch sodium bicarb (not necessary in my experience)
Decant into nebulizer cup. It’s now ready to use.
The internet has many videos about how to use/clean nebulizers. They are easy to use, but practice before you need it. Always clean your equipment after each use.
Note: This treatment is not recommended If you have sulfite sensitive asthma!
Here in Hawai’i, anybody who’s even a remotely serious person has a comprehensive hurricane kit – your basic bug-in kit to survive 2-4 weeks without food/water/etc. Every year post Hurricane season, we nibble down the stored foods that have expiration dates.
With all this Wuhan sh!t percolating, it’s time to top the kit off. Headed to CostCo on my way to my radio show tonight when I go into town.
Stopped at the health food store last night on my way home from the Tai Ji class I lead on Thursday nights. Elderberry syrup is actually on sale. Small miracles… I bought 3 bottles.
Spreading the word to all my clients today at the Pilates studio. Basically, nobody’s heard squat. But one client left after her session and was headed to buy elderberry syrup.
It’s beautiful here – sunny and calm. Have a sweet day, y’all. And keep stocking up…
VIVA – Sager
If these epidemics continue to increase in frequency, it’s a sign that planet Earth’s immune system is finally kicking in.
Chris and PP folks, you’ll see a changing tune here in this story and several pieces of what we’ve been reading here at PP being mentioned, such as incubation periods preventing easy spotting of sick travelers at airport checkpoints.
You should be able to glimpse this report, unless you’ve already exhausted your Bloomberg articles lately. By the way, this is the only media that I actually pay real money for and they have high quality in most of their work. It’s still “mainstream” news and they have planted bias articles as population sentiment needs to be “influenced”. But, again, if you’re going to actually seek out journalism especially from a business viewpoint, this is the outlet that I can stomach and actually pay for today.
“N.Y. Investigating Three Possible Infection Cases: Virus Update”
https://www.bloomberg.com/?sref=B46b5Rvh
As with the 2003 SARS epidemic, the Chinese leadership are already setting up convenient scapegoats to brunt the anger of the populous.
“China Locks Down 40 Million People as Anger Grows Over Virus” Source
I am sorry if this has been posted already. This looks real to me. Just wanted to share. Don’t watch if you are sensitive.
https://youtu.be/Jv_ScEYMQ0s?t=120
sandpuppy, thank you very much for the advice, I just ordered an oximeter. CM thank you very much for the elderberry information. I am surprised sometimes by the availability of naturally occurring useful-active plant components and have become a believer. We have a Chinese medicine here made from horribly tasting plant powder that actually seems to cure a common cold (works for me but has nasty side effects).
Facts:
- In the age before molecular biology knowledge, everytime a new virus emerged (mostly due to mutations in the outer coat protein that eliminates the old, familiar immunologically seen epitope(s)) most people ended up with an infection and many died. In the modern world however, (after the first wave or two of deaths) we can discover the new epitopes and/or mechanisms and quickly make a vaccine. SARS and Ebola were handled this way.
- The Chinese very quickly sequenced the new corona virus (and have good ideas of evolving variants thereof) and found the relevant differences in the expressed/exposed protein epitopes.
- The Chinese will manufacture a vaccine based on this knowledge. I note that the Chinese make (directly or indirectly) most medicines used in America. We are kind of passive observers in this drama. Our number one medical drug supplier is experiencing a very nasty new virus infection and will make a drug(s) for it after some time.
- This is a very serious disease, comparable with major scourges of old and the world will suffer some real damage, likely thousands or maybe even tens of thousands will die out of a 7 billion population. I have a trip planned to China next month so this affects me personally. But this is not the 1930s. For most people in the US who do not visit Wuhan, there is a greater chance of death from overeating chicken eggs or wandering outside during thunderstorms.
Remember a pandemic can take 6-9 months to burn itself out. Sure, food, toiletries, cash, etc. should be stocked up, so we can avoid going to town. Here are some other things we talked about in our house tonight…
Get the car tuned up, and the oil changed. Buy some oil and a filter in case we need to do it. Get extras of our prescriptions filled now. Get annual or regular doctor visits taken care of. Top off our propane tank. Call the electrician, plumber, handy-man, mechanic to fix “that thing”; get it done now. Get the septic tank pumped. Go to the dentist for our cleaning, and check-up. Go for our eye exam. Get any clothing we might need over a 9-month period. Buy some more board games.
We are retired, so we can hunker down. But, regardless of your situation, there are things you can do right now, that will limit your exposure to a pandemic, if you do it now.
One last thought we had. If we get sick, who might be willing to come help us? Based on some of what Chris posted, many people in China who get the virus are way too sick to care for themselves. So, we’ve discussed who we would trust to look in on us if we are sick, and who we would be willing to reciprocate care for if they are ill. We are going to get this clarified and formalized in the next few weeks.
This is perhaps the most comprehensive pandemic preparation article I’ve read. Does a great job of explaining their length, provides lists, and how to provide care at home while avoiding hospitals that will be overwhelmed.
https://www.moneycrashers.com/prepare-next-pandemic/
Elderberry Syrup at Amazon (link)… just ordered enough for immediate family and every neighbor on my block… why not.
vitacost is the one we use when we dont have enough homemade, it is a concentrate, so stronger, and is a good price. they have their own website, and also great prices on vitamens, canned organic soups, etc…
This one https://www.vitacost.com/vitacost-sambucus-elderberry-ultra-concentrated-black-elderberry-extract-syrup?ta=elderberr&t=elderberry and that bottle is basically for one person for one illness, usually, sometimes less is used if the person gets better fast. Taking a teaspoon 4 times a day is typical, so 48 servings means 12 days if used at that rate, for example. If sicker, maybe more often. 2 bottles of this concentrate plus some vit C with get you over $25 in vitacost brand to net free shipping…
Also, I buy dry elderberries, and yes I will sometimes use Amazon, but only one of the herbal sources that I trust, so if on Amazon frontier co-op or starwest botanicals, for example, are good sources for dried elderberries, it is not too hard to make a syrup, do it ahead of time. I made some for family as part of a natural and homemade first aid supply christmas gift, and I water bath canned it so it is shelf stable. I made mine with some sugar, instead of honey, so it was infant safe. It doesnt take much.
Chris, thanks for you vigilant information scouting and the elderberry syrup recommendation (just picked some up).
Needless to say I think my timing could be better… we’re scheduled to fly back to Mongolia on Tuesday with transit through Beijing. We’ll be taking some precautions like sticking only to the International Terminal, bringing all our own food, and being diligent with hand-washing & hand-sanitizer & Clorox wipes for chairs. Anyway, I’ll pass along what we see when we travel through. Not looking forward to the travel now, but at least what we see in Beijing and in Mongolia might be a clue to how serious the respective governments are treating this.
P.S.- My wife says they just closed all the schools in Mongolia’s capital until March 2nd as a precaution. Needless to say our son is happy with this development… 
Would love to by more than 16 tablets of ibuprofen. However, in the U.K. I can’t in one go.
fucking ridiculous…
pardon my french
I’ve been a Yin Chiao fan for years. At the first sign of “something”, I’m popping pills! Has worked well for me. Just bought a S/L of elderberry products to try that as well. Eh, probably won’t need either…I’ve heard crossing your fingers is helpful…Aloha, Steve
…here at Chateau Snydeman has been “get ahead of the herd.” To the layperson, this would just be a highly odd shopping cart. To PPers, this is an obvious ramp up in supplies prior to actually needing them, which is the whole point. If this thing hits next week here in the U.S., that’s precisely the time we do not want to be out getting supplies.
meanwhile, the Mrs. is out at Mom’s Organic Market getting dried Elderberries, raw honey, and a pulse oximeter, all as per the advice we’ve read here from Sand_puppy and others.
Lean on this community. Learn from this community. For the love of all things holy, though, get ahead of the herd. Worst case scenario is you feel a bit silly if nothing happens…but you’ll be hella prepared the next time a cold or flu rips through.
-S
PS- Yes, those are condoms. In a grid-down/holed up scenarios, the Mrs. might run out of her pills, so…I mean, what the hell is the point of prepping if you can’t keep living? Don’t judge.
N95 face masks are sold out on Amazon. They’re showing huge price increases from “third party sellers” or delivery times of 2 weeks from now. Someone else mentioned that auto parts stores carry face masks - that’s likely a good place to look as other people wouldn’t think about finding them there.