Alice Friedemann: When The Trucks Stop Running

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I was a little under the weather when I listened to the podcast and should have added a little more to the story.
This conversation happened awhile back and gas prices were in the three dollar range. The conversation started among a few people about the economy and what was wrong.  I tried to work in how cheap energy can play a major factor and what will we do in the future. The Professor said we had almost a hundred years of natural gas in the US and we could use it for transportation. I asked if that was a hundred years at current consumption. He did not really answer and that is when he believed technology would find someway to save us. He used Moore's law as a example that technology would continue to expand. 

I applaud everyone here at PP for continuing to educate people.  I am just a average joe who one day questioned why fuel prices skyrocketed to over four dollars a gallon this lead me to peak oil and then finally here at PP.   My debating skills are lacking and I find myself a much happier person by making changes to my own personal lifestyle. I will try to encourage people to change their habits by showing them my results. These results are better for the planet and in time save you considerable amounts of money.  Thanks for everyone's contributions.

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"every time we shrink the smallest Copper conductor lines again, we increase the electrical resistance in these lines, and move them closer together (between the insulator) which exacerbates the so-called RC (resistance/capacitance) delay factor.  "
Another problem is quantum tunneling. when insulators become too thin electrons start to tunneling through them. Seems unlikely that optical will make any leaps to replace electronics for logic. At best Optics and optical switching will help improve communications, but not processing. 

Another issue with electronics is heat disappation. the more transistors that are used the higher heat is generated. I believe a lot of work is now focusing on reducing switching losses to address the heat problem. if the heat problem can be solved than chips can go 3D permitting higher designing with short interconnections.  

Moores law is really about miniaturization. There is no way your going to build a micro-transportion vehicles to deliver goods and people.

If Moore's law was applied to transportation, it would mean that the size of the transportation industrial would shrink in half every 18 months, which is probably likely when energy gets expensive. But it not going to improve the economy and it will leave millions jobless, and freezing in the dark.

 

 

43

TechGuy-
So as with all things, you don't need to have a 100% complete solution to make a big impact.  Lots more thermal solar will reduce natgas use.  Even if only 50% of roofs face north/south, that's still a big number.  And even if it only works 8 months out of the year - that's still pretty good.  And not every place has snow.

As for your assertion that natgas is underpriced at $10…ok.  Even at $16 its still quite reasonably priced as a fuel.  Even at $25, its still $3.22/gge, which is totally doable.

As for Canada, I do not think imports from Canada will be cut off.  I was referring to oil imports from overseas.

The amount of waste the US has in using energy is colossal.  I have a lot of experience living in a much lower energy locale.  There's lots and lots we can change and still have a perfectly nice lifestyle.  Cut the natgas use by 50%, and that's 40 years of supply.  And if it gets more pricey, more of it will become available, and use will become a lot more efficient, too.

Certainly we can't drive our hummers anymore, but believe me, life is perfectly fun at a much lower energy level.  I know, because I've lived it.  Instead of everyone having a car, you might have one car for the neighborhood and everyone will jump in the back to go somewhere together.  Or, there are private van services - they hold 12 people, have a semi-regular schedule, and they stop only by request.  And they're cheap.  It might require walking or riding a bike to the pickup point, but life doesn't end.

If you have four roommates, and everyone has a car, nobody needs to cooperate.  But if only one roommate has a car, you will all tend to do things together.  That, writ large, chops liquid fuel use by 75%.  Faced with "stay at home by yourself" or "go places together", we'll choose to go places together.

Believe me, people will make changes and adapt, and it really won't be "everyone shivering in the dark."  That's my sense anyway.  It might actually end up bringing people closer together.

Try living in a lower energy country for a while - say 3-4 times lower than the US.  Life really does go on.  You just have to become more of a group person.

I've seen the future.  Its really not all that horrific.

 

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I'm coming around to the belief that energy scarcity may not be a real problem. Climate change will be a bigger problem if not ameliorated somehow.
The following quotations are from " Covert Wars and the Clash of Civilizations: UFOs, Oligarchs, and Space Secrecy" 2013, by Joseph P Farrell.

          …the Brookings Report strongly advocated studies not only to determine what effect an ET disclosure          might have …implying that a disclosure of technologies of equal or near parity could topple the existing petro-corporate-financial leadership and implying a sudden toppling of the dollar's reserve currency status". P 175.

…as for the new energy supplies suggested by the new technologies mentioned in the Brookings Report, they would make a virtually limitless currency possible, and give access to space resources…that may have already been collateralized secretly". P 176.

Of course whether the new technologies be made generally available is another matter. 

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Hey everybody, Eddelinski, etc.  I know that many of you are experts of one sort or another, so go ahead and try to think of ways in which we can soften our landing. In the US we consume, what is it? 19 million barrels of oil every year? every day? Whatever it is is ridiculous in my opinion and we don't know how to make more. We can (maybe) discover more, but we cannot make our own oil. And wasn't it mentioned in the interview that consumption has been increasing exponentially and population started to increase exponentially when we started to consume oil… (yes, these things were stated clearly enough, perhaps some of you didn't read/listen to the interview around which these comments originate).
So making suggestions about how to dodge or delay the long energy emergency is kind of like making suggestions for what the fed should do. I mean I doubt that the powers that be are going to listen to us - even though we're knowledgeable people. Go ahead and make suggestions about how countries and the world community can "solve the problem," but, even if you can come up with a solution, it might fall on deaf ears. I would still advise you to start a garden (or expand the one you have), start riding your bicycle to work - or get a job closer to home if you cannot ride your bike there. 

Cornelius 999 What? You're 1/2 right, global warming is a real problem. That doesn't make our energy crisis less of a problem. I really don't understand why you think that way.

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Thanks for that video. There is a rather inactive bike group on this site and I think I posted several years ago about my electric bikes. I have a recumbent Mountain BikeE that a friend, Bill Darby,  fitted out with a 500W Currie brushless motor back in 2001. We started with Lead Acid batteries, then went to Nickle metal hydride, (Valence Batteries) and now Lithium Iron Phosphate. We then tried to build a human hybrid trike. Really a high-end velomobile. It is in my basement unfinished and we just buried Bill last week. We are going to make a tombstone with a nomad-tadpole bike carved on it.
What he ended up making for me before he "retired" was a homemade tadpole much higher off the ground than your Trice and most of the other recumbent trikes. It is a lovely balanced light weight machine and adding a heaving battery and motor just messes up its essential poetry. But I cannot get up the 10% grade hills in my town (well sometimes I can in a granny gear but it is slow and no fun and I am usually in a hurry.) So my compromise is a RideKick trailer with a 500w motor and a 24volt lithium iron phosphate battery. I got one of the earliest models maybe three or four years ago and had to work with the company to fine tune it so it didn't overheat going up hills. They were great people. They are still selling them and I think they have worked out the bugs. They will have more available in September or so they say on their website.  That way if I want poetry I ride slowly and if I want to get to town I put on the motor. Of course things go wrong with all machines and there are more things to go wrong with motors and batteries. A heavy bicycle is useless if the motor is attached. With a trailer you just take it off, chain it to a tree or something and ride home.

Not much discussion about bikes ever took place on this site. All the old guys I knew who were into human powered and human-hybrid vehicles are gone now. And, if you think about it, bikes are pretty high tech things. They require chains and gears and tires and paved roads. So do they make sense in the world that our children and grandcnildren will inhabit? I think now that maybe they will disappear with automobiles and airplanes! The high tech batteries? All part of the industrial past. Or perhaps we will be able to use those Xtra-Cycle cargo bikes that take the place of small trucks in third world countries?

The future of cycling is worth talking and thinking about. The trouble is that many bike enthusiasts are real ideologues who dismiss electric bike riders as wimps.

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So far, I’ve built an inefficient velomobile based on a KMX Kart (kid’s trike); I’ve had two electric bikes; I’ve had one Sun EZ recliner bike, and a lightweight aluminum bike.
My son and I also designed, then started working on an aluminum velomobile, before I had to go back to intensive work.
I’ve also experimented around with bike carts, including a detachable-dolly extended girder trailer (based on a child trailer) and a golf caddy converted to a bike cart.
My conclusion? The powered assist trailer concept is probably best. I find it easier to go fast on the unpowered aluminum bike than on the Currie lead-acid bike. However, I found that the power required for the currie was greater than the design strength of the parts, especially if I loaded a week’s groceries on to the back.
Moreover, the risk of theft makes things awkward.
There’s a reason pull-along campers w/ pickup truck have a higher resale than motor homes. In the same way, I suspect your answer to the detachable dolly with electric assist, is the bet option.

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I played around with one of the predecessors to this design.  They are pretty efficient, but do of course require gasoline.  They use a 35 cc Honda 4 stroke engine similar to what is used on a weed-eater.  Though the 4 stroke engine is quieter than a typical weed eater, they are still noisy.

If I had to commute, in an area with good weather and roads with bike lanes, I would use one of these.

I recommend putting the kit on a bike with disc brakes as the brakes get a workout due to the greater speeds of the motor assist.

Golden Eagle Bike Engine.  $679 for the kit

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was constructed because the League of American Wheelman lobbied for better roads for their bicycles!

50

I just read this whole thread from the top. Also I just heard the most recent “off the cuff” and the discussion about the problem with ‘off balance sheet’ costs that do not show up in the prices we pay for food and other items.
For example, billions (trillions?) are being spent as I write this to increase and maintain the carrying capacity of American highways. I haven’t heard a single politician object because we might not need them as much in the future. Much of the costs are outright subsidy. If the complete cost of roads was borne by only the users of our roads there would be change in their use. We saw this back when oil hit $130+/barrel. Railroads and river barges got a greater share of the freight. That was just due to the cost of fuel.
If the maintenance and construction costs were paid for fully by a tonnage-mile tax for cars as well as trucks then we would see significant changes in their use. Ride share would go up, freight would shift even more to rail, mass transit use would go up, motor scooter use would increase, etc.
Then lay on top of this the potential for a smart grid approach to personal work transportation that is ‘stimulated’ by personal/corporate tax credits for reduction of rush hour commuting or a rush hour toll that is paid by employers. This, coupled with the advent of self driving cars would align the cost/price relationship for transportation and freight.
Everyone has the right to be stupid. Politicians outright abuse the privilege. Fight against political stupidity.

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… where one could get the wheel dirive ring? Or would it be made from another bike wheel?

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aggrivated-
I think you have something on the smart grid work transport thing.

Other countries use vans and trucks as "bridge" transport to and from public transit stops.  US could use a driverless version - get off a train, board a driverless van or truck that goes along your route - or direct to your work.  Van dispatch knows when the train arrives, knows who is on the train, where they need to go, communicates with everyone's app, roughly schedules the vans (based on history) and more finely based on realtime info.  Uses a more interactive/personalized variant of "nextbus".

It could be pretty seamless.  It would probably chop energy use and traffic by 50%, and increase public transit use too.  Suburbs could get a life extension, much to the dismay of JHK.

I think tech can definitely help mitigate.  It can't create energy, and it won't "fix" the problem, but it can certainly facilitate using our existing energy a lot more efficiently, both in reducing the number of cars built, as well as really encouraging sharing transport in the normal commute case.

I don't think taxes are required.  If hand-driven vehicles are limited to the slow lanes, that's probably good enough.  :slight_smile:

And a follow-on thought.  If you thought intersection camera tickets were no fun, how about camera tickets issued by evidence collected from driverless cars when you do something bad near one of them?  They have enough sensors to be 24/7 monitoring/recording devices.  Internet-connected, able to sense who is nearby…able to measure speed very accurately…they're walking, talking highway patrol.

Heck, why not have them BE highway patrol.

Boy I'm glad I'm not driving that much these days.

53

When my husband was a science writer at Lawrence BERKELEY laboratory.  He and his colleagues saw the fusion program as a tremendously expensive boondoggle not about fusion but making sure our nuclear weapons would still explode. 

54

In Peak oil and the Preservation of Knowledge I make the case that microchips are the most vulnerable to energy and other resource shortages, supply chain failure, interdependencies, rare earth and other mineral shortages, etc.  The pinnacle of our technical achievement also means it will be the first to fail. 
http://energyskeptic.com/2014/preservation-of-knowledge/

http://energyskeptic.com/2012/fragility-of-microchips/

http://energyskeptic.com/2013/microchips-detailed-description/

http://energyskeptic.com/2014/interdependent-chip-fab-electricgrid-financial-sys/

http://energyskeptic.com/2014/high-tech-cannot-last-rare-earth-metals/

55

Pyranablade, your're probably right. I may be pushing the envelope too much in expecting useful amounts of energy for terrestial  purposes from electro-gravitic drives and temporal drives. These are two of the reported propulsion methods of interplanetary/intergalactic  spacecraft. And intergalactic cargos of copper and rare earths are  optimistic even if LENR takes off. 
The fact that so many countries are still committing billions to problematic nuclear power stations has to cast a big cloud over alternatives. And googling Stephen Greer raises doubts about his free energy schemes. Hitching a ride from aliens could also be like playing Russian Roulette according to Professor David Jacobs.

That leaves me back cultivating energy flows in the semiconductors I know best - the brain and body.

 

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Pyranablade, your're probably right. I may be pushing the envelope too much in expecting useful amounts of energy for terrestial  purposes from electro-gravitic drives and temporal drives. These are two of the reported propulsion methods of interplanetary/intergalactic  spacecraft. And intergalactic cargos of copper and rare earths seem optimistic even if LENR takes off. 
The fact that so many countries are still committing billions to problematic nuclear power stations has to cast a big cloud over alternatives. And googling Stephen Greer raises doubts about his free energy schemes. Hitching a ride from aliens could also be like playing Russian Roulette according to Professor David Jacobs.

That leaves me back cultivating energy flows in the semiconductors I know best - the brain and body.

 

57

Alice's knowledge and "substance" was evident throughout the interview.  It was interesting (and a little scary) to hear someone from her background and experience arrive at the same conclusions that Chris has expressed here, that our current way of life is unsustainable, and that there is no solution at this point (it is a predicament vs a problem that can be solved). Even though I was already familiar with many of the concepts that were discussed, I found the alignment of Alice's experience and perspective with Chris's to be sobering.  But that's ok; I don't mind a splash of cold water on the face now and again to regain alertness!  Thanks Alice and Chris!

58

You may well be correct that new microfabrication will stumble quickly; I doubt it, but I do consider it possible. But first of all, the factories that exist will continue to be able to output MOSFET technology; the tolerances are better.
Moreover, the infrastructure is not likely to disappear for decades. As it does begin to disappear, people are likely to transcribe the most important information to forms that will last better.
Yes, we well may lose a lot. However, I don’t expect the destruction of knowledge to even come close to the rate of destruction of knowledge caued by political events.
It’s an intereting question, how to bet tore knowledge to be retrievable later. Use cast stone? Publish the compression algorithm in plain math language, give the mathematical key, and then go from there?
It’s a good question, indeed.

59

Large transformers are sensitive to large ground currents from solar charged particles.  Replacement times are in the order of 6 months,  assuming a well-oiled manufacturing infrastructure. Maybe in Africa?
I take back my le Grange point solution.  O'Neal was unaware of something that his superiors understood. The moon has been colonised. We were warned off. 

We can have Mars, it's at the bottom of a mile deep gravity well. Not good for anything except for disposal of garbage. 

 

60

Can anyone inform me on the name of the book that the speaker references in the latter half of the interview in regards to the most sustainable areas of the country?  I believe she said the author was Charles Holland?