Alice Friedemann: When The Trucks Stop Running

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-02-08/does-your-city-have-a-future

Readers hoping to find their home town rated in America’s Most Sustainable Cities and Regions may be both disappointed and enlightened.

Disappointed, because the book doesn’t provide a systematic listing that covers all American cities – either the most sustainable or the least sustainable. Enlightened, because the authors do provide a systematic way of looking at sustainability, which can be applied to cities across the USA and around the world.

The authors are counted among the pioneers of ecological economics, and their new book is a lucid introduction to the fundamental concepts of this viewpoint.

While a textbook of ecological economics might lose some readers in abstraction, this book moves fluidly between abstract concepts, and easy-to-follow application of these principles to the past development, and possible futures, of twelve cities and ten regions...

While the book is a strong addition to the literature on sustainability, I do have a few quibbles. First, a reader expecting discussion of the sustainability of average citizens’ lifestyles in various cities will be disappointed. It gradually becomes clear that current per capita ecological footprints are not the subject of this book, nor are Hall and Day ranking the degree to which the economies of various American cities are sustainable in their current configurations. Rather, they elucidate the degree to which these cities will be sustainable as they cope with 21st century megatrends. A clear statement early in the book, explaining what the authors mean and what they don’t mean by “America’s most sustainable cities”, would have been helpful.

Finally, the book’s predictive usefulness is weakened by a lack of any mention of either large-scale migrations or political factors on future sustainability.

The authors note that the resources in the area around Cedar Rapids could likely support the current population (though not their current lifestyles). On the other hand, the population of the megalopolis from Washington DC to Boston, including New York City, is far too great to be supported by local resources. In theory, then, the current Cedar Rapids could become sustainable, while the current New York City cannot.

Eventually that which cannot be sustained, will not be sustained. However, suppose a severe resource crunch hits rapidly. Assuming the millions of people in New York City don’t just ascend in The Rapture, many will move to someplace that can provide the necessities of life. A large outflow of people from cities like New York, and an inflow into the smaller, theoretically sustainable cities like Cedar Rapids, would quickly alter the sustainability calculus.

Likewise, if sustainability is threatened for large numbers of people on a short time-line, political leaders could force through desperately short-sighted measures to feed populations. Thus regions which currently have relatively strong ecosystems may not be able to maintain those environments, as more populous and more powerful regions exert their demands.

In summary, John W. Day and Charles Hall have provided a great overview of the factors that can make a city and a region sustainable, even in the face of restricted energy shortages and the challenges of climate change. If we move quickly enough in adopting an “economics as if reality matters”, then this book may also serve as a road map to a reasonably prosperous future.

Based on this review, I chose not to get the book.  I would've eagerly gobbled it up if I was teaching/writing in this field or getting a degree in it, but all I'm trying to do is test the thinking and choices I've already made about a place to which to retire.  I'm satisfied with my choices and am thinking that sustainability in that location will largely be an issue of individual adaptations (alternative energy systems, gardening, extreme home insulation, etc).

I now discover in "Covert Wars and the Clash of Civilizations" that:
     " …if ( Norman ) Bergrun is correct…mining itself could already be a multi-trillion industry, for it appears  that someone with some pretty advanced technology might be mining Saturn and it's moons, that is, if Bergrun is correct in his analysis of his blurry pictures." P 331.

He also suggests that gold could even have been traded to off planet destinations. P 344, and recounts that equations for a "warp drive" were formulated in 1994 " around the time of Ben Rich's now celebrated statements about finding an error in the equations". P 332.

 It would seem that one of the very best investments the mega-rich could make are a few of those one and a half kilometer long spaceships, Bill Tompkins says he designed for the US Navy. Surely Bill Gates and Elon Musk have booked theirs?

To see why Physics as we know it may need severe revision see John Lear's (son of the Lear Jet Inventor) Amazon.com's review of " The Gravitational Force of the Sun ".  This seems to be why warp drives etc. are thought to be possible. The author revises Kepler, Newton, Gallileo, Einstein !

There are those who lean heavily on the "Appeal to Authority " or " Incredulity" arguments. I was prone to it too and I found it very liberating to ditch them. 
(Nod to  Stan. Yes, I know the Climate Thing. That's where the sacred over-rules the profane. No one touches my planet.)

I love the delicious irony of an Iranian housewife and mother sticking it to Einstein and Newton. Einstein would love it too. But not Newton, he was awfully prickly.

You show me yours and I'll show you mine. Here's Pari Spolter. 

 

http://www.thelivingmoon.com/47john_lear/02files/Pari_Spolter_000.html

Further to my missive on Pari Spolter, I offer you Dayton Miller.
The entire edifice is under threat. It is being propped up with  kludges. Dark energy, Ha!

 

http://www.orgonelab.org/miller.htm

This is a good read. The senior author, Charles Hall, developed the concept of EROI. Chris uses this a lot in the Crash Course analysis of Peak oil. The six contributing authors are all academics, but the book is an easy, interesting read.
An excerpt is in the Aug 21, 2016 Scientific American if you want to get the gist.
Chris and Adam, what are the chances of an interview with Charles Hall or JH Day?

Great podcast and terrific discussion. It is great to get so many insights from people engaged in reasonable discussion from many points of view.
Having finally returned from my latest trip 'halfway round the world', I had to chuckle with regard to Chris' comment.

Chris Martenson:

"Some say we live like kings, but that doesn’t really go far enough. Henry VIII may’ve had complete mastery over his many wives, but even he could not click a mouse, buy a plane ticket, and be halfway around the world the next day. You and I can do that.

So, we really live like ancient Greek gods, able to command the forces of nature and get ourselves from point a to point b really quickly if we choose."

The experience may rely on godlike powers but it feels like more of an Odyssey when traveling to the places I go - 5 planes each way! That said, Dave Fairtex speaks truly about the ability of people to live quite well on much less energy and to live more modestly on dramatically less energy. Many countries can provide many models of how to accomplish this. The problem is that societies are energy addicts that can never seem to get enough. Do we really 'need' more? No. However, few get rich marketing ways to use less energy in a consumption driven economy. And people hate to change if they feel it is inconvenient. If you 'have to' garden you will hate it, if you 'choose to' garden you will love it.

Clearly what we should and in fact need to do is consciously make the effort to use less and less energy, per capita and in aggregate as populations rise. What we will do however is probably try to avoid changing the way in which we live unless there is literally no choice. Our current energy models are failing for any number of reasons from declining EROEI to decaying infrastructure. There will be Herculean efforts made to prop up our existing system, however, be it from money printing to finance failing energy plays (fracking) or attempts at providing alternative energy sources.

One thing I try to keep in mind is that although we cannot imagine how we can live with reduced energy that this is not the same as saying that we cannot live under those conditions. It is true that we cannot live the same way but we will not just give up and die either. Given the need we will find ways to get by if we cannot thrive. There is a lot of adaptability and creativity that will be employed if push comes to shove. It won't be the 'solution' but it will buy time as social and living structures work to adapt. As someone else said, there are many solutions not just one. For now though there can be no solutions (adaptations) because as a society we refuse to even admit we even have a problem/predicament.

Let me begin by saying that I do strongly believe we put men on the moon; the energies involved make it likely.
However, more recently, I consider anything that JPL has touched to be tainted, and of questionable value.
Why?
Because of this:
http://www.google.com/url?q=http://c3po.barnesos.net/list/AnalysisTitanPanorama.pdf&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwi96pTBpuLOAhWBJh4KHSdNDFwQFggLMAA&usg=AFQjCNEcX0Xu77W9IEsui4BObf5M3cGROQ
And because at a symposium elsewhere, more than a year later, one of their speakers knew our unnamed astronomy professor well enough to attack him as being “from that nut case college JMU”, when he stood up to ask a question at the end.
in other words, JPL was pissed enough to study the faculty and seek-and-destroy.
That to me, is circumstantial evidence of systemic guilt.

Human mind, senses, and machines are nowhere near capable of fully perceiving or comprehending reality. The filtered subset of reality we perceive and comprehend is just our limited version.  By expanding our comprehension, we can literally change (our perceived) reality.
 

youtube video DmKx7Btacvg

http://fuel-efficient-vehicles.org/energy-news/?page_id=925
 

There are one billion existing internal combustion engines in service globally today which could be inexpensively converted to run without fuel as demonstrated by Stanley A. Meyer (1941 - March 21, 1998) in 1996. He demonstrated a practical solution which could be inexpensively mass produced as an add-on kit for existing gasoline and diesel engines. The materials in his device were 500 grams of stainless steel per spark plug, 500 grams of copper wire in a bifilar toroid coil, and assorted simple standard electrical and electronic components. The controller logic is no more complicated or expensive than what is found in a typical car today. The material are less than $200. Large scale production design could reduce the per unit engineering and labor cost to $10, and $30 respectively. The details can be debated, but his is very doable.
I came across the following (below) description of a revealing exchange between Brillouin executive R.W. George and Wall Street bankers that hints that banks may fund this type of venture, if there is enough money in it for them, otherwise, they have no interest.

Brillouin exec Robert W. George II, said: "When we took it (our need to raise capital) to Wall Street they looked at the upside potential of this kind of technology and said it is worth $Trillions. You’re only trying to raise $15-20 million. It makes no sense (for us to fund you), we can't do that."

Given the above narrative, the solution is to offer Wall Street a more profitable deal. Ask to raise a billion dollars and they will eagerly raise the funds, since they get to keep more for themselves. This is really all they are interested in. As for Wall Street funding new energy technologies, the lesson learned here is: think big or go home.

Source: Youtube video G09LRbDXGy8 at time 42:39 mm:ss

I think the time is ripe for (a thousand) someone(s) to start a company to mass produce Stanley Meyer add on kits. If the funding terms allow bankers to make a huge fortune, they may go for it. After all, even the bankers know the Petrodollar is terminal.

http://www.theorionproject.org/en/research.html#technology_papers

 

Sometimes when a thread seems to go off-topic (or gets mired in one topic), I go back and re-read the article. At the top, where this whole thing is outlined, you will read:
"…And WHILE UNLIKELY, her projected aftermath of a sudden complete shutdown of the trucking fleet is sobering." 

I didn't listen to the podcast thoroughly this time, so maybe Chris has an argument that Adam is mirroring in that statement.

I know sudden collapse would come from trucks stopping, but I don't think gas/oil is the catalyst to a sudden stoppage. I think there are several other things that could cause trucks to stop, but not that (especially now that there's such a glut in oil supplies).

An electrical outage surely would be, since financials are behind our JIT commerce and everything is on a computer now - from accounts to vendors, and even transactions - so that would cause a quick unraveling to everything.  There are a whole lot of studies and reports that outline massive vulnerability, and the risk of societal disruption & calamity, from SUDDEN (and sometimes irreversible) electrical outages. 

I can see there is a lot of research going on for alternative energies, but whatever they come up with, it's not like the car replacing the horse. Mass transit (trolleys and buses) might work for rural areas, but who has the funding for it? There are currently many projects on the table for mass transit (trains) in highly populated areas and they aren't happening either. Mass transit means more taxes, and unless states follow Colorado's lead (and 2 other states), legalizing marijuana for the immense tax revenue it generates… there is no more money to fund these projects. VAT taxes won't be enough. I think legalizing drugs for tax revenue only works for a while, then the black market moves in (remember all the illegal liquor trade/stills during prohibition?)

A few people see massive unemployment coming down the line. The boomers are the only ones who own/will own their homes and will have money to pay rising taxes… but all the pension funds are underfunded and who knows when that will all blow up. I heard that Millennials are going to move up into high-paying science and tech jobs, and become the new middle class (lol), but for now their lives are throttled by student loans, keeping one or two part time minimum wage service jobs, while they live in someone's basement.

I don't hear either of our presidential 'con'didates advocating for a 'new deal' of jobs to fix the fix we're in. I don't hear any innovative ideas at all. 

So, one way or another, there will be fewer jobs and less money for everything- and less traveling. Maybe they'll lay more tracks for long-distance travel…and supply routes. If I could invest, I would invest in trains. If I could begin a dream hobby toward resilience in the future I see, it would be raising cart horses and building carts. 

I know we all have different views on what current events portend in the near future, but this article is basically preaching to the choir. We all know none of the possible calamities will be mitigated in time. There isn't anyone in power who can or will do the right things, and we don't have the money or the power. Things are not getting better, not going in the right direction, and not going to change for the better except at personal/ family, community levels. 

If people don't grasp their own dependence and vulnerabilities to the fragility of our 'system' by now, then they are suffering from cognitive dissonance and won't be coming around to a proactive state of mind until it's too late.

 

 

 

Climber99… 'no problem'? Why did you even post that response? Are you a rock climber, per chance? (by your name). It sounds like you are young and in great physical condition, so these possible upcoming problems don't feel challenging to you. (Maybe you don't know anyone over 55 or who is handicapped, so you don't know the challenges they may already face).
I see a few problems that are insurmountable to many (in case of a 'sudden' stoppage to trucking). 

First, I think Cuba's result of a mass response to desperation (caused by sudden financial -scarcity- changes, did not come without much suffering. I haven't studied that country/culture, but I believe they had soil that was not ruined by pollution or big-ag soil-stripping practices, they have a population that became resourceful over time, and being in the tropics, they didn't need irrigation over large areas in a continuous drought with water shortages. I imagine trucking produce around took/takes a lot less cost because there is simply less mileage to cover.

Americans will have several seasons of hard learning curves, as well as weirded weather to contend with.

Public transport… bikes are great for young people, and people who CAN physically bike. Security issues abound with it, as well as distance issues. There is a well-known problem for city and urban people (the poorest areas) enduring food scarcity (except 7/11's)- and an unsafe environment (that surely won't go away). Will the towns and cities pay for the group vans and drivers for those who can't walk or bike, when public services are no longer being funded? 

-mass transport? Cities will just magically have money for that, and be able to 'truck' in all the supplies to the Nonexistent manufacturing plants to be built? 

I tried to imagine having trolley-electrified trucks, using wind machines on each line, for the current. Huff Po says it's the fasted growing job segment already, but those wind machines may have sustainability problems of their own. 

Also, if the financial or electrical systems break down, or for the outlook on energy limits- if the trucks stop, so will most of the jobs and banking activities… and likely all int'l trade, so where will the steel and copper (et al) come from to suddenly get on the ball with these projects? 

I just finished listening to the entire podcast and visiting Alice's website. Some good articles there on the future of transportation. I started with this one to get a good idea of how impossible electric trolley-line trucking would be: 

http://energyskeptic.com/2016/all-of-california-electricity-per-year-to-power-16000-catenary-trucks-on-2400-to-8275-miles-of-highway/

Looks like we're going to be locked into trains, maybe some gas-conversion buses (for a while anyway), some expensive and rare battery/elec. vehicles, drone deliveries…  and eventually horse power. But in the meantime MUCH SUFFERING. No trucks, no medication making, or delivery…no jobs to pay for it, no tax revenue for cities or gov't to pay for it… and the list of our national needs is longer than just that.

Fascinating Dayton Miller article Arthur. It's nice to see that the Chi/ Orgone/ Prana that I feel every day has had such scientific attention. Thomas Townsend Brown did most of his work under a cloak of secrecy.
See also Paul LaViolette: Secrets of Anti-Gravity Propulsion. Youtube.

The Secrets of Anti-Gravity video is literally mindblowing. B-2 bomber, Mars in 5 days, Alpha Centauri in 2 1/2 months - 5yrs. Star-Treak Rays,  Artifical Pulsars.  We are imprisoned in a cage of corrupted science!
 …the very evident indications of human technologies that could be far in advance of public knowledge, change entirely the complexion …of events especially when one considers the missing "hole" in modern historiography - the UFO and extraterrestrials - and the missing" hole" in geopolitics and finance: the whole system of hidden funding elaborated since World War Two…P 342  " Covert Wars and the Clash of Civilizations."

Let's use our resources to immediately build enough fission nuclear powered electric generation plants to eventually be the primary source of electric. This would be on a regional/national level.  Require energy use reduction through legislation in the name of national security. As available oil continues to diminish, local economies will begin to naturally flourish, but it should be encouraged through carbon tax on distance of deliveries. I know this sounds pie in the sky but we have to do something to transition future generations back to a 19th century lifestyle in the future.  

Edwardelinski Wrote:
Let's use our resources to immediately build enough fission nuclear powered electric generation plants to eventually be the primary source of electric.
 

  1. Insufficient Uranium Supplies. Most of the easy Uranium has already been extracted. Costs for extraction would be significantly higher.

  2. Pollution: There isn't too much more polluting that mining for radioactive materials. Refining Uranium is also creates an abundance of pollution.

  3. Increase chances of Reactor meltdowns causing wipespread contamination. Fukashima was the final nail in nuclear power. Countries like Germany, France, UK, US and Japan are either downsizing or have put expansion on Hold. 

  4. lack of funding. The Industrialize world is insolvent. That's why all of the industrial nations have ZIRP OR NIRP. Already many operating reactors have serious problems and should be shutdown. The problem is that the utilties lack the capital to decommission or replace them. In the USA, the Nuclear Regulator Commission has an Extend and pray policy, which sooner or later will end in disaster.

Nuclear Power does nothing to fix the Trucking problem. 

 

I do so wish that the brainiacs  at NASA who exercise their wit at our expenses would stop. It is just tedious and has the aesthetic appeal as latrine wall humor
Unless of cause they are throwing dust in the air to obscure our vision. In which case one should consider what it is they are trying to conceal.  And that thought peaks my curiosity. They may not be as clever as they think they are.

The solution to a disruptive event is an even more disruptive Paradigm shift, Cornelius.
We are the proverbial drunk searching for  his keys in the lamplight. The solution is to grope around in the dark, and to go over everything that we think we know. Perhaps the drunk should check his pockets. 

My ancestors didn't get me this far for me to just give in. They deserve more respect than that.

And besides, I have found the perfect outlet for my destructive urges. Can you think of a better Trolling than to undermine everyones' precious Models?

What a hoot! If I am to go down, then I go down giggling like a Hyena. 

I have McKenna's authority that this is what it's like when a species prepares to depart for the stars. 

Well, if you can get through an hour of Paul's  excruciating talk you  will emerge with a completely  brand new paradigm. 
And you will see why the discovery of the aether is so important. 

Your horizons will have expanded and all the little pieces of the jigsaw will fit most satisfactorily. 

(I blew through  $10 worth of data, and it was worth every penny.)

https://youtu.be/ifEgGMFK-VU

Who needs trucks. We've had telportation since 1968.
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPV8lPvDsFA