As officials scramble to get in front of a disease that seems to easily evade their slow-footed efforts, SARS-COV-II is growing exponentially in several countries.
Iran’s cases and deaths are certainly far higher then they claim, as recent gruesome video evidence supports.
The Federal Reserve took it’s only hammer out of its bag and performed a surprise 50 bp (0.5%) emergency rate cut. The last times the Fed performed such a cut were followed by bad moments in financial history including March 2001, and Oct 2008.
Further, the supply shocks are just starting to be felt, and China’s economic activity proxies (such as passenger miles, pollution levels, etc.) all point to a continued stoppage of a huge proportion of its economy.
You need to be ready for an explosion of cases in your country, especially if you live in a cooler climate.
Please, use every day to improve your circumstances.
India is banning export of 26 API’s vitamins and essential ingredients. This type of action is likely to be almost as deadly as the virus, though they can hardly be faulted for putting their own people First.
The China road congestion chart doesn’t have the y-axis starting at zero but at 1.0, so Chris’s characterisation of the congestion being half of normal doesn’t seem right. It is normally at about 1.7 but is currently at a bit more than 1.2, which is closer to 3/4 of the normal, rather than 1/2. Or is 1.0 essentially the zero point, with less than zero being impossible? If so, I retract this slight criticism!
Oh Crap.
This was expected, but is double-plus ungood.
From the article:
A ban on clindamycin exports? OMG - this is what I got last time I had a tooth infection. Good stuff for that sort of thing.
Paracetemol?
Tinidazole?
I don’t think anybody is quite ready for what this means yet…
Anyone know how many have been tested in the States so far? I saw a tweet the other day claiming they dropped the testing numbers on the CDC website…on the 1st it wasn’t even 500 tests.
After watching these videos with my wife, she ordered 6 months supplies for the most important drugs in the Pharmacy she manages several weeks back. Antibiotics were a large part of her order.
Chris seems to be making a point about Covid-19 being much more deadly than the flu and that this is the reason for emergency interest rate cuts and manufacturing shutdown in China, etc. However, isn’t it true that the flu has become normalised, which is why it doesn’t result in as much panic (unless some new virulent strain emerges) as this new virus and it is because of the general panic that what may be over-reaction is occurring?
Hi km64, I know you’ve been a member of the PP community for a month, so you may not be aware of the PP posting guidelines and rules (here).
I don’t know whether the article you posted about “low-life” “Nancy Pelosi’s Dirty Little Secret” is true or not and the Fox News segment didn’t provide evidence or proof of intent re: withholding coronavirus funding to run Democratic fund raising ads. But I do know that others here could counter with their own incendiary partisan posts and links. The result would be unproductive, heated exchanges, hard feelings and the potential to diminish if not destroy this site and its on-line community.
IMO, the pandemic, along with its potential economic impacts, has amplified already deep divisions within society. Add to that the 2020 US presidential, congressional and state and local elections and we have the political equivalent of a lighting a cigar while standing in a puddle of gasoline. (See Alfred Hitchock’s “The Birds”)
I’m not trying to be a censorship hardass or PC cop; I just wanted to let you know so we can maintain the integrity of this great site and community, especially during these extraordinarily challenging times. Thanks!
Excerpt from PP forum guidelines and rules: “OFF-LIMIT TOPICS Regretfully, through much trial and even more error, we’ve determined that there are several topics that seem to escape the ability of otherwise careful and considerate people to discuss pleasantly in an online forum: Religion Abortion Politics (from a partisan standpoint or otherwise seen as pushing an agenda) These topics are not allowed, and any threads or posts containing them will be promptly removed. We wish it could be otherwise, but our hard-earned experience is that these topics are not worth the trouble. We appreciate your understanding.”
Mast cell-mediated allergic inflammation is involved in many diseases such as asthma, sinusitis, and rheumatoid arthritis. Mast cells induce synthesis and production of pro-inflammatory cytokines including tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-? and interleukin (IL)-6 with immune regulatory properties. We investigated the effect of the fruits of Poncirus trifoliata (L.) Raf (Rutaceae) (FPT) on expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines by activated human mast cell line, HMC-1. FPT dose dependently decreased the gene expression and production of TNF-? and IL-6 on phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) and calcium ionophore A23187-stimulated HMC-1 cells. In addition, FPT attenuated PMA and A23187-induced activation of NF-?B indicated by inhibition of degradation of I?B?, nuclear translocation of NF-?B, NF-?B/DNA binding, and NF-?B-dependent gene reporter assay. Our in vitro studies provide evidence that FPT might contribute to the treatment of mast cell-derived allergic inflammatory diseases
I watched a farm program last weekend. The farming community is worried there won’t be basic chemical feed stocks which come from China for Ag fertilizers, herbicides, and insecticides. And projecting I would guess there won’t be feedstocks for basic chemicals such as plastics and surfactants either. We better hope China comes online by the end of March.
I am in Washington state and they just updated the death toll to 9 on king 5 news My husband and son are both FF/EMTs we are all gravely concerned at this point. All you can do is be prepared and not scared but is pretty hard not to be terrified at this point.
Tony,
In the US, between 5%-20% of people are estimated to get the flu each year. Many are immune and others partially immune because of previous infections with various strains over the years or vaccinations. Death rates are typically expected to be ~0.1%.
This corona virus is ‘novel’ so no one has any immunity and obviously no vaccine exists. Estimates are that 40-70% of humanity, globally will likely catch it on the first go-around. Assuming that percentage holds in the US, even if the virus had the same mortality rate as the typical flu we would be expecting between 2 and 14 times as many deaths, even if the hospitals weren’t overrun. Unfortunately the mortality rate is much higher than that of the flu. We won’t know exact numbers until after all is said and done but the WHO, which has not exactly been overselling the COVID-19 virus, has now increased its mortality estimate from 2 to 3.4%. That would be 34 times as deadly as the typical flu if the numbers hold up. Higher even than the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic which had a case fatality rate of ~2.5%.
So, with many, many more people likely to catch the coronavirus as it makes the rounds, a much, much higher complication rate and death rate, this is definitely not the flu. If we are very lucky, deaths will be in the hundreds of thousands in the US, if not then it will be in the millions. Globally it will be too much to contemplate.
Hopefully there is an escape clause somewhere, but math doesn’t tend to leave loopholes.
Chris, earlier today PP member Berensma provided some outstanding links and additional information about India’s restrictions on APIs and formularies. Here’s my response, in which I reposted her links and pulled excerpts from the articles: https://peakprosperity.com/honey-badger-virus-video-update/#comment-395040
Berensma said, “It looks like the list comprises mostly antivirals, antibiotics, antifungals, etc, as well as B vitamins.” She apparently has professional knowledge of these pharmaceuticals, and planned to augment and post the official API/formulary list with her comments about the 26 restricted drugs and their use.
Please check out the above link to the comment and perhaps even contact Berensma directly as I think she may have some very valuable information, expertise and insight to share. Thanks!
World Population 7.8 billion.
70% of the world population gets infected.
3.4% mortality rate.
7,800,000,000 * 0.70 * 0.034 = 185,640,000 deaths.
What am I doing wrong? This can’t be right.
Please be careful with that stuff. My dentist always wants to prescribe it to me, also, but when I took it, it gave me very bad digestive effects. Now, I would probably have dutifully finished the course, anyway, but luckily for me, an MD friend of mine persuaded me not to, and gave me an Rx for doxycycline instead. After reading up on the serious permanent damage that has been done to some people by that drug, I always ask for something else.
World Population 7.8 billion. 70% of the world population gets infected. 3.4% mortality rate. 7,800,000,000 * 0.70 * 0.034 = 185,640,000 deaths. What am I doing wrong? This can’t be right.
Correct. Try my math.
Population 7.8 billion
100% get it on either the first or second or 99th wave
3% CFR until hospitals are overwhelmed and then it rises to about 20%, especially in Africa, poorer parts of Asia and in refugee camps, prisons, old folks homes etc
7.8 billion x .20 = 1.56 BILLION deaths in two or three years.
How’s that?
Unless we get a vaccine first.
Certainly not my intention to break the rules, nor act in a partisan manner. I understand the concern and will try to be more clear in the future.
If I found something similar about Republicans I’d have posted it. This level of political B.S. just makes me sick. A pox on both their houses (which could literally happen with COVID-19)
Chris seems to be making a point about Covid-19 being much more deadly than the flu and that this is the reason for emergency interest rate cuts and manufacturing shutdown in China, etc. However, isn’t it true that the flu has become normalised, which is why it doesn’t result in as much panic (unless some new virulent strain emerges) as this new virus and it is because of the general panic that what may be over-reaction is occurring?
You are correct that some of the ‘panic’ is because of the novelty of this disease, but Chris has also made the point that shutting down half of China is not something that has ever been done before (whether in response to a normal flu or for any other reason either) and that therefore, the flow on effects of that shut down are creating supply chain problems of their own plus Fed rate cuts etc etc . But his central point is that this really is NOT the flu in terms of its basic epidemiology. It just doesn’t behave the same way and its potential for mass infection and high fatality are significant differences between flu and Covid 19.
My husband and son are both FF/EMTs we are all gravely concerned at this point. All you can do is be prepared and not scared but is pretty hard not to be terrified at this point.