No argument there. What will really determine how bad the housing market gets will be the question of how bad layoffs will be, for sure. My statement was meant as an “all things being equal” kind of thing, though most of us know they won’t be.
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I remember purposefully noting more than a year and a half ago the bold prediction made here that maximum Feb 2022 the stock market would have lost 30 – 50 % of its value or something along those lines and that it would include the housing market loosing that type of value.Can you find that? I really don't make calls like that. The reason I "predicted" a housing correction is not because I have some magic divining ability, I can just properly interpret early warning signals free from any MSM bias or programming. Rapidly rising interest rates on already stretched valuations? That's an easy "call" which isn't really a call. It's a description. But stocks I shy away from making any 'calls' about because that's a completely manipulated market and there's nothing fundamental to assess or analyze. One exception: I told people to get out of the market in Feb 2020 while it was still rising with an obvious pandemic on the way. But that was a fundamental override to a generally immune ""market"" system. If you doubt my "it's completely manipulated" point of view, then just meditate on this chart, which is the #1, #2 and #3 reasons why I don't make stock ""market"" calls: https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Gains-overnight-NYTimes-1661701505.7024.jpg
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Perhaps you are remembering a PP tribe commenter, or a guest that CM interviewed? But it wasn’t Chris. He (wisely) refrains from making predictions of a ““market”” that is completely manipulated. (BTW Chris should trademark the use of double quotes. I think he pioneered it.)
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Best “short” I Ever Executed
In December 2021 I was interviewing for a Project Manager role with a single family real estate developer. I could see they were desperate for people (i.e. the getting was so good they were willing to throw a crazy good salary my way). I was listening along because I knew I was going to make a change soon (and did this last May) and was curious about why their recruiter sought me out. Anywho, long story short is I turned down their offer which included a +/-$30,000 raise to my base pay. No small change for a family of 4 on 1 income.
I didn’t trust the housing market then, nor did my wife. Now, I may not be losing a job if I were at that company, but that company’s stock has also plummeted 45% from when I turned down the offer in January, so I can only imagine that if layoffs are in the mix, then a new employee with not a lot of polished skills would be first to go (I’m not new to real estate development, but I’ve never done single-family…).
Now where I am I get to work on climate adaption projects, water resources, reforestation, and environmental compliance in the energy and mining industries. A real smattering of topics that PP devotees would care about. I earn a little bit more than the previous employer too, but certainly not $30k more, but in time I’m sure I can leverage my wisdom from Chris to move up the ladder faster.
Not taking the bait on the $$ was the best short I ever played. And timed the chart perfectly.
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What is the implication of EO 14067 on Certificates of Deposit? Any body care to offer an opinion?
Thanks
Thank you Chris, I welcome your reply as a gift. The context of the prediction I am refering to indeed seems to match the suggestion you made in 2020 to get out of the stock market.
I’m also confident that this is a prudent suggestion. If the understanding is that the fondamentals are not supporting the values that are being traded at, I also like to be out of the market. Financial investment should not be like betting in a casino.
I’m appreciative for the suggestion. I’m appreciative for the macro view that you generally invite us into and the understanding that how things unravelled are real difficult to predict.
Now, the potential problem with missed prediction I’m pointing at was beyond prudent suggestion to get out of an investment that was out of line with the fundamentals.
The reason I’m so passionate about this is because if we are to trust each other it is critical to be real mindful about how we use language and make prediction in turbulent times and I’m having a sense that the language have been hyperbolic here in the past. The trust we have with each other is in the balance. And I really want this trust to be strong. Was the prediction made by an esteemed guest and you did acquiesce to his suggestion? Or made a silent omission? Or did I misinterpret the thing entirely?
Does anyone else here that took notes of what were said in 2020 from whom about the impending crash of 30 to 70 % of both real estate value and the stock market at the latest by Feb 2022? * Or something like this?
It would be really helpful to me if I could see that there was indeed a distance between what was the official position of Peak Prosperity versus the unattached position of an outside collaborators.
Thank you for helping here.
Here is the note I had on my Calendar
- Prediction [done on] Thu, Feb 18, 2021 that economic collapse to come around within the next 12 Months - all major indexes
- 50 % down value to stock market and real estate market with no bounce back before a decade
In March, the home-buyer education company I worked for virtually dissolved. (I’m still looking for work; I’m an experienced copywriter.) Several factors led to its demise. Still, maybe it was a sign of things to come.
Today, I saw a job listing at a company that enables ordinary home buyers to make cash offers. To help you compete with investors, they pay in cash for you while you finish nailing down your mortgage. Some quick research revealed that they laid off half their staff in June.
It seems crazy, but at this point, I might apply. The money is good, and I figure that getting laid off again might at least reset my unemployment insurance. Sigh.
my question is will the new cbdc be on a transparent blockchain like bitcoin? well it is a rhetorical question of course. the government/fed does not want anyone to know which shell the money is under. just think what would happen to the cia if they had no “black money” to fund operations like assassinations and coups. or the dod saying “gee we can now account for that missing $23 trillion”. of course we will now be able to track all the money from human trafficking, weapons sales and drug cartel profits…….oh wait scratch that last one. banks like hsbc, wells fargo, citi etc depend on those drug profits for their own profits… or even simpler like how many frn’s are actually in circulation? i think maybe the reason we don’t already have cbdc’s is all those pesky details. no transparency for us but transparency for you.
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Hi Jast21. I was keeping track of predictions and even writing them down in an Excel sheet for awhile. The bold prediction you describe can most closely be attributed to Harry Dent in a 12-22-21 interview with Stansberry Research, but I did not have anything similar for Chris (and I watch every video).
Interestingly, Dent had to update his predictions. On 11-24-20 with Kitco News, Dent said the stock market will peak from mid-December 2020 to early-to-mid January 2021 and that the 40% stock market crash would occur by April 2021. He added that if he was wrong, we could stop following him & his advice.
So I did.
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Thank you Corn-Fed Chris,
I’m so glad you are able to contribute with your own Excel sheet of prediction.
Unless I’m willing to go back to the interviews Chris was giving at the time — which I am not willing to do at the moment — I will refrain from further comment now.
Here is a closing reflexion for me in relation with the predictive power of the analysis on the site here.
For one thing, it seems to me that the prediction related to covid all through the journey were of good quality. From the very beginning of the covid crisis and all through it. There were early prediction about the importance of the crisis which came before the main stream media. They were prediction around omicron calling for the end of the public health crisis. And those were helpful information maps that fits the role of peak prosperity being our information scout.
Now, I’m choosing to personally heighten my degree of scepticism in relation to the economic predictions made through the Peak Prosperity official guest interviews.
I wish the exercise I went through would have resulted in increased trust about the level of care and humbleness the information is presented.
I wish that this prediction would have panned out better and I took better notes of the exact context the prediction was made as to validate as much as I can about the strengths and limitations of what is going on on Peak Prosperity. What I know is that the trust in the information provided on the economic current events has not been validated for me at all. I wish it would but it have not. So I’m at square one in establishing trust on that level and I’ll reduce my involvement with Peak Prosperity around economic understanding of current events as a result of this personal experience with it.
Move along. Nothing to see here.
This site is about thriving amidstmeta trends, not financial profiteering.