This is fantastic work! Everyone should watch this.
You were able to shrink the error inherent in a moving microphone several-fold by using video data to better estimate the cell phone locations. Taking into account multiple microphones now has the first 8 shots coming from a roughly one meter area.
Looking forward to more detail on shots 9 and 10.
Surely there must be another police cruiser that was not moving and had its microphone on. Particularly if that was not close to the cruiser already being used as a recording.
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Clarification: what I mean is could the kill shot have been not shot #10; but a typical high velocity round but with the sound of the shot so suppressed that we don’t hear the report on any of the recordings? (the sonic boom of course cannot be suppressed, but for example if the round came from bleachers west of the pond, it wouldn’t have come very close to the podium microphone)
Hey schroederized your back!
Great to see you again!
Guys let’s not get discouraged! I would say we are right over the target; you know why? Because Google is deleting dirt roads on Google Maps, in all officially released videos the vents seem to be photo shopped. I just found a new one today of which I will post later. You can decide for yourself if the videos seems tapered with. Let’s continue with full confidence!
I was able to get more accurate floor levels as per below drawing. This Data is coming from Land ID. I will integrate these new floor levels in the next simulation 5. Maybe we should all work with the same floor levels?
Together we are strong!
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Hi Greg. Do you happen to have any evidence to suggest that snipers were actually on or in the East grandstand at the time of event? I have yet to see any evidence they were. The closest I could come, one way or the other, was screenshots from the RSBN footage. They film all day at Trump rallies, and are the only media that pans around to show the size of the crowd. I don’t see any indication of a sniper nest in the East grandstands based on that screenshot.
How do we know that’s the first shot? I can see the casing being ejected clearly.
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I have a different opinion on this topic. Looking at the animated GIF, Crooks is still moving his gun, trying to aim and 1 second later the first shot is heard. I know daniloraf has a different opinion of which I respect, but please everybody go look at the HD GIF and make an opinion of your own. See my post here:
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Has anyone measured the distance between Trump’s ear and the microphone into which he was speaking?
Not me.
I THINK THE SHOTS RECORDED BY THE POLICE CRUISER VIDEO ARE FAKED.
I meticulously timed the shot spacings as recorded by the police cruiser parked in front of Building 6. Stationary mike, so compare to Trump’s stationary mike and if all the report spacings are the same, case closed, all 8 shots came from the same position, almost certainly. When I compared, there was such agreement that there was less than 1 foot difference (1 ms) for any of the shot spacings! The two recordings line up perfectly for report spacings. Wow, single shooter for sure.
But then I noticed something funny. A striking similarity between the waveforms of the eight shots in the police cruiser recording. And by that, I mean IDENTICAL but for a small amount of added white noise (probably the AC running in the car, this is channel 2 from the cruiser). IMPOSSIBLY identical. Here are all eight shot waveforms, stacked one above the other, with a few vertical lines to help you see the alignments.
What are the chances? Other microphones, including Trump’s, don’t show this. Most have dramatically different waveforms between 1-3 and 4-8, let alone between shots in the same group.
But it gets even better. The donor sound they picked for this fake recording has a report duration that is longer than the spacings between shots five, six, seven, and eight. So if you were going to fake this “right” (and I wouldn’t have duped the same sound clip), you would have to put those shot clips in separate tracks and mix them to get it right. But they just cut and pasted 6 over 5, then 7 over 6, then 8 over 7, completely overwriting the ends of the preceding reports, all in the same track. Because of the significant energy still arriving from the preceding shot, it is doubly impossible for the beginning sections of shots 6, 7, and 8 to match the beginning sections of shots 1-5. Look at this spectrogram–I took some dead space out from between 1, 2, 3, and 4 so it was easier to view these all together. The spectrograms of the first 100 ms of each shot look identical, and the “end” energy of 5, 6, and 7 magically disappears when the next shot comes in.
@cmartenson I know you have looked closely at spectrograms in the past. Does this look like anything you would be expecting based on the other recordings you have analyzed? I call BS.
Based on this, I would never, ever, ever use a government-provided recording for shooter placement in this investigation. This frankly tells me they are trying to cover up for a second shooter.
And all respect to Greg N and his work trying to figure out where the shots came from, but my analysis is different. I had worked last weekend from Greg’s numbers, but I have now made my own measurements. Not for this post, but I will work on that hopefully for tomorrow. I don’t see a single-shooter solution.
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Oh and just to add, my guess is that because of how close the cruiser was placed to Crooks’ location, if they were going to provide anything at all they had to doctor it. Probably the timing between shots 1-3 and 4-8 were clearly different (no supersonic report in this rear position to muddle things), and qualitatively they were different in a way that was impossible to explain for the close, stationary mike position.
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I’ve been a gun owner and shot guns for 25 years, owned an AR for over 20 years, shot ARs a lot, was in the Army, multiple combat deployments, with quals of Sharpshooter and Expert on the M4 (AR15), and shot a lot of guns in my life.
I have watched the original video and the .gif. Many times. @cmartenson Based on watching the .gif over and over, I’m reversing myself because it appears Crooks did take the first shot. I do see almost imperceptible movement in the shoulder and head, and I do see a shiney shell case eject forward where his chamber port is. Watch just in front of his nose the entire time and you’ll see brass come out. His shoulder/head movements align with that event.
I have been a firm believer in the 2 shooter theory thus far, and I could be swayed by a better video he did or did not take all the shots, but this .gif really calls my prior beliefs into question. From this .gif (assuming not altered in any way), I’d say I’m 75% sure Crooks fired the first shot.
2 shooter theory could still survive but we’d have to then reverse and assign the first 3 shots to Crooks and shots 4-8 to the 2nd shooter (I theorize is a professional to ensure the job is completed).
My original post is here to show what I had previously thought for intellectual integrity:
I previously wrote:
I conclude Crooks did not take that first shot, but it’s admittedly hard to tell for certain. I do NOT see movement consistent with the light recoil of an AR15 on any part of his body, nor do I see a shell casing eject. Focus on his feet. They don’t move. Focus on his butt, his shoulders, his hair, none of that moves consistent with a involuntary movement from recoil. He does appear to maybe adjust his head but that could be him flinching or taking aim. Look where a bright shiney brass case should eject, I see nothing obvious, but there MIGHT be something. I do see something but I’m not sure it’s a brass case.
Granted this is not definitive because it’s a terribly poor quality video.
If there is movement, Crooks probably flinched from hearing a gun shot just like most people in the audience. He might not have been expecting it, might have thought/expected someone shot at him (he must have been racing with excitement), maybe the thought his gun fired accidentally, etc.
But I’d say with 75% confidence from this video Crooks didn’t take that first shot.
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I concur. The original version I heard didn’t have the other two shots added. Someone is stirring more controversy IMO but that’s a different discussion. The Higgins report that came out yesterday has valuable info and states that TC did indeed fire ALL 8 shots. It could’ve been much worse had the stock/buffer tube not been damaged by the Butler LEO who took the 9th shot and states he was certain of a hit because TC immediately ducked. Also, I do remember hearing a ricochet sound from the dashcam after that 9th shot so I believe this to be true. It is speculated that he was unable to fire more rounds because of the possibility of a gun malfunction or jam. The 10th shot (the kill shot) came from the sniper team on the south barn. These are some of the facts presented in the report. I can post a link to it if anyone is interested.
this is exactly the point…
I only trust the data as original as possible…
I go frame by frame by myself and make screenshots of each frame.
these frames I put in, e.g., powerpoint and then I move the frame to align with a previous/next frame, but only if strictly necessary (e.g., if there is really too much shaking around)…
I NEVER trust an animated gif…
remember the misdirection: the magician makes you look at one hand while doing the trick with the other…
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They didn’t clarify south barn did they?
I thought they just said a southern sniper. There were other sniper teams located more south than the barn too.
So that will be interesting to see what the final claim is.
The reason I think this, is the distance isn’t right and the shot was declared to be one in a million.
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Hi BigTim,
Did you ever see the video with sound? Please see the screen shot of the moment of the first shot, sorry, but I don’t see a shiny shell case ejecting forward and his shoulder/head movements I do see before shooting, which leads to my assumption that he is still aiming.
yes, I find this very strange…
a typical sniper is not afraid of taking down a target at 500-600 yards… here we are talking about 300-400 yards max and these distances are labelled “exceptional”
if it was an exceptional shot or one in a million, it is because it was very close…
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Hi Rough_Country_Gypsy,
Watch this video on the link below, please, at the 4 second mark, just when the camera zooms in, watch it fullscreen over and over and you’ll see it with the audio. It’s the 720p resolution of the TMZ Ross video posted July 13th on their website. You’ll notice it has a tiny delay between case ejection and sound, but keep in mind this was recorded 100 yards away from the weapon, so the tiny delay could be from speed of light, speed of sound, cellphone specs, etc. I made that small clip you saw on X by playing this link and recording the desktop monitor with my cellphone, to sort of zoom in further.
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Per the report, I must clarify that Higgins did NOT state the south “barn” but that he believes it was the fired from that position because of the trajectory of the kill shot. Further investigating will corroborate I suppose.
Looking at the deceased pic of TC on the roof, the entrance and exit wounds provide clarity. The bullet entered right above the left side of the mouth and exits below his right ear in the neck area. Notice the blood coagulated above his lip and the slight bulge on his neck (exit wound). Maybe this is why brain matter wasn’t evident scattered across the rooftop. I have no knowledge of ballistics other than the occasional gun range hobby I enjoy. Maybe someone else could elaborate.
I have tried watching it so many times I have come to loath that loud mouth woman screaming like a crazy woman! It’s a very challenging video to watch without fine-tuning ability to go frame-by-frame and eliminate that woman’s shrill voice. I’d rather be assassinated than have to live with that horrid screaming at home! LOL. Having tried watching the full length where she just keeps yelling and yelling and yelling and yelling… OMG. Lady, SHUT UP!!! Has nobody told her she is a crazy person!? LOL
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Here is a link to the report released yesterday for those interested.
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