Yes. A coincidence that the 0.2 second time difference is so close to the timing of the two ends of a typical primary “N-wave” front propagating as the “cone” from the course of a supersonic projectile as the front passes any fixed point adjacent to the trajectory.
Check out
Greg Nichols
Trump Rally Audio Analysis: Counter-Sniper Location Revealed!
This analysis shows BOTH shot #9 and #10 came from the location of the RED Combine. Possible Sniper on top of the machine.
Also! the press photo of the bullet trace suggest the bullet was in an upward trajectory, or is this an optical illusion from the photographers shooting angle?
Seems the only way to get an upward angle for Trumps ear is shooting from the side Vents @ 9 ft ceiling level. However this would miss the stand railing hit BUT might account for the Hydraulic line of the speaker lift.
Lastly the first 3 rounds differ from #4~8 in sound by a METALLIC clang which is common for an AR style rifles buffer and spring recoil, Shots #1~3 dont have that one possibility is shots #1~3 are from a bolt action 5.56nn.
How Say You?
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Leo, do you have a source for the explanation of a primary “N-Wave” front timing. I would be interested in learning more about that. Thanks in advance if you can provide a link.
Use ffmpeg. It is a very versatile audio/video editing/conversion tool. The command I use is:
ffmpeg -i inputfile.mp4 outputfile.wav
the -i is used the specify the input file, which can be any format. The last parameter is the output file and without further options ffmpeg creates a file based on the file name extension (in the above case “wav” which is an uncompressed audio only file).
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This was some time ago, in either a written article or a video. It gives a real world explanation to this.
It was about use of a Mk12 SPR with an Ops Inc 12th model suppressor in Afghanistan. Because the muzzle blast was reduced by the suppressor it was harder to know where the shooter was. If the bullet passed a tree or rock, the resulting crack at that spot would draw the target’s attention to that spot in the flight of the bullet.
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We need to find video that has the Red Tractor in it at the time of the shooting to verify this.
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What if the 1st shooter came down a bit rough and was hurt. Then he could say that he looked on the roof and TMC pointed his gun at him and then he fell.
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Having considered it I believe the ladder(s) are important.
-
How, when, and why was the taller orange concealed ladder placed there, and by whom?
A: We know it’s there immediately (within moments) of the shooting. We have pretty good video of that parking lot area and nobody is seen setting it up. Yet within moments of the shooting a cop directs other cops (trying to climb up a pallet to the roof) to this ladder. We don’t know who, when, and why it was placed there.
Red Herring: We were given conflicting information that a team had previously “secured” this rooftop before the event but went inside because it was too hot. Could they have set up this ladder or is this a ruse? Can this roof be accessed by the 2nd story building window/door onto the adjacent roof?
Speculation: His insider helper(s), realizing he would have difficulty accessing the roof (with the 5’ ladder he told them he bought, and obvious difficulty transporting a ladder in the area), they told him to leave it home and they would set up a ladder for him. The tall ladder hidden and adjacent to his shooting point is that ladder. -
Why and how did Crooks know to buy a ladder, and why did he not bring it after buying it? He had the receipt in his pocket, was that lazy coincidence or an indication he planned to survive the attack and return the ladder he did not bring?
Speculation: His inside helpers told him they set up a ladder. But Crooks could not find it because it was so well hidden. Crooks was wandering around all sides of the compound and “waiting” for something, some person perhaps, on his phone. He was possibly waiting for a coded message where the ladder was placed because he could not locate it. He ultimately improvised by jumping up parcoring onto the roof using an AC unit and small shed. -
We have a story of a cop boosting another to “see” Crooks right before the shooting, Crooks turned and aimed the rifle at him, and the officer cut his hands as he let go and fell, hurting his foot. We have very good video coverage of 3 sides of the building. Yet we have zero evidence of this actually happening, no names of the 2 officers, no evidence of injuries, and nobody doing this behavior on video nor Crooks reacting to this alleged interference. The only feasible location would be the parking lot side and corner where that ladder would have been concealed behind the trees. Of course the parking lot side is the tallest side of the building, yet there was a ladder. So why didn’t the officers climb up that ladder?
I believe the ladder is a big key to the puzzle.
I think that is an excellent observation and concern. We have yet to learn of this officers name, the name of the one who “boosted” him up, or any other details other than a vague inconsistent story. For a few days I have speculated there was a 2nd shooter on the 2 story building roof 300 feet behind Crooks, overlooking him, the rally, and the police so he could time his shots with Crooks being ready, and have the same general trajectory. This theory fits in perfectly in that he fired his 3 shots, and scurried off the back of the taller structure, cutting his hand, twisting his ankle, and needed a cover story…
If you watch the raw video of this image, you might see what appears to be a head poke up between the two air vent stacks when Crooks is getting into position.
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Based on the source files in Chris’ dropbox. I put the timing data of the shots + coordinates where this was recorded (with reference to my map) in this new spreadsheet: CleanAudio.ods - Google Drive
I think this should be good enough to locate every shot. (but don’t hold your breath, it may take a while 
)
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All I can say is watch this and see if you still have questions about the ladder. He does a good job going through ladder timing from video evidence.
On misalignment of arrival times
If two shots are fired from the same location, the two arrival times must agree, regardless of where the sound recording was made. The distance the sound travels is different, but the interval between the arrival times will be the same.
If the shots are fired from two or more different places, it becomes more complicated. Then the interval between the arrival times will depend on
- ) where the recorder is located in relation to the two places the shots are fired from. The two shots will then cover different distances unless you are placed the same distance away from both
Even if the shots are fired at the same time as measured by clocks showing the same time, it will not sound like the shots are fired at the same time unless the sound recorder is located on a line perpendicular to the line between the two shooters, halfway between them. The recorder is then placed at the tip of an equilateral triangle, so that the sound travels the same distance from both shooters.
- ) The actual time interval between the firing of the two shots is part of the equation
If the actual time interval between the firing of the two shots is unknown, I don’t think the interval between arrival times can be used to calculate where the shots were fired from. This is the problem with the Trump shooting.
Alignment or misalignment between arrival times can still provide useful information. If no significant deviation in measured interval between arrival times at different locations can be demonstrated, it can either mean that there was only one shooter, or that there were two shooters shoulder to shoulder. If significant misalignment can be demonstrated, then there was more than one shooter.
You wrote “I think shot #9 appears in multiple of the recordings I plotted and its arrival time is so different among the recordings that I am very uncertain I have even identified it correctly, so I didn’t even mark it on my screen capture.”
I found the same thing. The arrival interval for sound between shot no. 8 and no. 9 varied so much between different audio recordings that it convinced me that shot no. 9 was made by a different shooter than shot no. 8. Now this has been confirmed.
I have tried to measure as carefully as possible the arrival interval of sound from shot no. 3 and shot no. 4. Here I find only very little variation in this arrival interval between different sound recordings. The variation that is there may be due to measurement error, but I am not sure. If there is more variance than can be explained by measurement error, it could mean that the shooter of shots #1-3 was only a few meters (or yards if you like) from the shooter who presumably fired shots # 4-8
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I got a terrible idea. The 5 shots have stronger echo and longer delay.
Isn’t it possible somehow those arrived from the loudspeakers?
Isn’t it true pro snipers who aren’t suicide killers will use a quick exit vehicle and path after shooting. I can’t see a straight sight path to the stage, but if second shooter, or only shooter, was in that parking lot hidden somewhere wouldn’t it be close enough to the audio mics you analyzed to have same distance you found. I know still need to analyze first 3 shots then the rapid ones as you did to fit it. I heard a sniper Nick Irving on PBT say he would lay down in SUV and set up the barrel through the taillights or license plates, key holes etc like the past DC sniper. A car or van in that lot even in back would have same audio signal maybe. He also confirmed what you said that no way crooks shot those rapid shots as that pro .77 in Chris’ video and agrees he himself could barely do 1.0 sec at 100 yards. Of course, the undercover cops were pretty close by that parking lot side Chris showed too to maybe help it through.
22:10 where he’d set up ; 32:10 he trained SS snipers, they’re short distance. At near 43:00 he’s talking he thought 2 shooters. He thinks same gun first 7 shots, pro signature. He’s not analyzing just by hearing , maybe 2 of the same guns same rounds near eachother. 44.15 Not sure maybe crooks look-a-like on roof didn’t fire a shot, no recoil, no muzzle flash there. At 56.00 Collin Rugg X video shows the C video 2 mins before trump shooting with 2 guys on roof in addition to real crooks and 1 guy running across, maybe took out crooks immediately slumped over, maybe this guy stabbed him and looks like flag wave saying ok guys job done. Dead crooks body pics elsewhere, show no head shot, and looks like he bled out from back stab, other trauma wounds.
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It can, theoretically. But with only 2 recordings, you’re right, you can’t get a specific location. But you can get a curve showing all the possible locations which would give you that amount of difference between interval times, say between shots 3 and 4.
A different pair of microphones would give a different curve.
Where the curves meet is the location of the unknown sound source.
Above in this thread (#151) I linked to a youtuber who did such an audio analysis.
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There may be a simple reason why the echo delays change between shots 1-3 and 4-8, as seen from source #4. The figure below shows the far surface in peach, as well as the region from which shots would echo off the far surface to [4]. The near surface is in red, as well as the region from which shots would echo off the near surface to [4]. By pure chance, Crooks’ activities straddle the boundary between the two regions. His echoes switch from short to long with one step.
If you compute the extra path length for the short and long bounces, you get 0.07 and 0.20 seconds, compared to the 0.08 and 0.17 seconds measured in the recording. I am working to reconcile the last 0.03 seconds (coming soon).
No, between 3 and 4 was about 1.5 seconds, off the top of my head. The .007 is not a time between shots, but between two sounds from the same shot arriving at Trump’s mic: the shockwave of the bullet first, followed by the boom of the gasses from the rifle.
I deleted The Plan post. I need to rethink the sequence of a plan and then repost. Too many spelling errors of the original. Developing. Chris is on the timeline anyway.
To clarify, for each relevant shot:
Source 1 - Trump’s Microphone
The two impulses are
(1) Shock wave from passing bullet (not every shot)
(2) Report of gun catching up 0.22 seconds later
Source 4 - Cell Phone
The bullet does not come close enough to make a strong shock wave.
The two “impulses” are
(1) The report of the gun coming in the direct path from the shooter to the microphone
(2a) The reflection of the report off of the nearer surface, shots 1-3, 0.08 seconds later
(2b) The reflection of the report off of the further surface, shots 4-8, 0.17 seconds later
I put “impulses” in quotes because these sounds are quite dispersed.
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The data you asked for is attached. I’ve been working on this for over two weeks now. It’s been a tedious and difficult task, but I’m very happy with how the results turned out. I will be happy to answer any questions that you or others may have regarding the data. I have just completed my second round of detailed analysis, and I expect to publish my results soon.
Gunshot data for TDOA analysis.pdf (237.1 KB)
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