Bob Fitzwilson: Charting a Safe Course Through A Market Gone Insane

The Dow Jones has had 10 consecutive days closing in the green, a streak not seen since the mid-1990s. Both the Dow and the S&P are at or near all-time record highs.

That's what happens when you flood the markets with liquidity, which the Federal Reserve has done with trillions of newly-printed money over the past several years. It's currently juicing the money supply to the tune of $85 billion per month. All those dollars have to go somewhere. And their now finding their way into financial securities.

So, has the Fed won? Has the crisis been averted?

Should we just accept the maxim: "Don't fight the Fed", jump in the markets fully and let the rising flood of money carry our stock portfolios to the moon from here?


In this week's podcast, Chris puts the tough question to Bob Fitzwilson (one of Peak Prosperity's endorsed financial advisors): Can one prudently invest in today's logic-defying markets?

Bob's short answer is: yes. Perhaps more than ever, old-school fundamantal analysis matters - stock picking in the true, nose-in-the-numbers manner. For as the Fed's money injections reach their point of diminishing returns (which there's growing evidence they have), the tide lifting all stocks will reverse, and only those companies with real merit will maintain (or lose less of) their valuations.

Like Chris, Bob sees the potential for a large market correction as the Fed liquidity binge effect wanes. So, in his eyes, now is not a bad time to sit on the sidelines in cash and equivalents. If indeed a correction occurs, there will be an attractive opportunity to deploy dry powder selectively into those companies with verified fundamental value.

But it's hard to have the fortitufe to do this when the world is cheering the return to easy stock gains. Of course, those are the times when the greatest number of 'greater fools' are in the game. It's wise not to be one of them.

If after listening to this podcast, you find yourself interested in connecting with Bob and his team to learn more about their advisory services, please use the form here to do so.

Transparency note:  As a result of our public endorsement of Bob's firm, Peak Prosperity has a commercial relationship with them. The details of this relationship are clearly presented in writing during the referral process -- but the punchline is, our relationship does NOT result in any increased fees to those who become clients.


It should go without saying: this discussion should not be construed as individual financial advice by those listening to it. The content should be taken as informational and educational in nature only. Investment advice must be tailored to your specific personal situation (which Chris and Bob are obviously unaware of) and should be obtained directly from a financial advisor you trust. Before acting on any of the statements made in this podcast, we advise you do just that.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Bob Fitzwilson (38m:37s):

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at

After carefully analyzing the stock market, its origins, its history, etc.  I have decided to vote with my feet and refuse to participate in a giant confidence game.  By participating, the public simply fuels the whole corrupt machine and rewards the predator class who have access to inside information. At one time, when most companies paid dividends on real earnings it might have been justifiable to call it investing, but not anymore.  You can't even say that the market aids in price discovery, as it is a "juiced" market.
I compare being in the market to having a pet cobra.  It's kind of neat to brag about, but sooner or later you're going to get bit.


Ants are in danger when elephants fight.
Make yourself a warm dry home.

Thanks Chris and Bob, for another good discussion.
I can think of so many people who I would like to show this transcript to. In fact over the last year, I have forwarded many articles from this site to people I care about. I know they have read the articles, but as Chris said, there is just a tremendous amount of complacency, with few people I know actually doing anything with this new information. I often feel like I am on a small island called Reality, rubbing shoulders with a sparse population of realists - our virtual community - while cruise ship after cruise ship of complacent sheeple sail on by, waving from the railing, while wondering what the heck those folks on the little island are doing, and why they won't join the party…

I really liked the idea of a "coiled spring" describing the current situation, and that a "pop" is inevitable. Math and physics are not my strong suit, so this gives me a visual I can wrap my head around - that there are limits to the amount of pressure that can be applied. Mind you, all of this is a grand monetary experiment that has never been done before, and therefore we do not know the eventual outcome. But the idea of infinite pressure without springback of some sort just does not make sense to me. With plenty of pressure being applied from a variety of sources and places, there are only two unknowns as far as I am concerened: when the springback will occur, and how strong it will be. While I can't guess on the former, the latter will be exacerbated by the groundswell of anger that will erupt when the passengers realize the ship is not as stable as they thought it was, and the next port is not a safe harbour.


get a load of this. insured savings accounts in Cyprus are being "taxed"

Bailout levy

  • Depositors with under 100,000 euros deposited must pay 6.75%
  • Those with more than 100,000 in their accounts must pay 9.9%
  • Depositors will be compensated with the equivalent amount in shares in their banks
  • The levy is a one-off measure
Despite the risks of banks I am out of the market, preferring alternatives. That being said I have met Mr. Fitzwilson and found him to be a very standup guy.

However, as Scott Adams of Dilbert fame (also) says: "do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup".

Poetic grace in what you say.Quiet conduct in righteous ways.

SP500 monthly chart megaphone wedge [aka broadening top] warns of inevitable Wile E Coyote crash.
Weekly & monthly charts reveal an unstable uptrend that is destined for collapse.
The Wile E Coyote drop is delayed but remains a 100% certainty.
This substantial delay with much needed corrections prevented due to central bank intervention, ensures the inevitable crash will be worse.
DXY [ie USD] monthly chart continues to give bullish warnings and a substantial US dollar rally awaits.

As of today the EU is getting ready to steal 9% of deposits from citizens of Cyprus. Bank runs will start immediatly. This should boost the dollar and Gold.

[quote=Oliveoilguy]As of today the EU is getting ready to steal 9% of deposits from citizens of Cyprus. Bank runs will start immediatly. This should boost the dollar and Gold.
This is really big news.  If the Cyprus parliament does not vote yes to the IMF/Banker/Political proposal soon, this will be quite market destabilizing.  
Unfortunately, what should happen and what will happen in these heavily influenced markets can be very different things.
We're going to have to monitor the situation in the southern Eurozone very carefully over the next couple of days.

I agree completely, this is vastly important news, and the market reaction over time is critical to watch.  I believe policies like this will increasingly drive capital underground, at a time when the eurozone desperately needs every bit of growth it can get.
To put in place a deposit guarantee system for small depositors, and then when the bank fails, to levy a "tax" on the savings so that the ECB and the senior bondholders don't lose money is appallingly cynical.  CHS suggested this was a test run; if the citizens don't revolt, this same mechanism will be applied elsewhere.

When a bank fails, someone always pays.  The only question is whom?


May be thins not what it looks like. May be it does not even matter as Cyprus Parliament will vote. May be it just a multi-stage game.
Why here: Eurozone's tiniest economy on isolated island

Why now: Perfect timing for setting up a global run on the banks in Italy, Spain, all over Europe.

Hidden Goal: Let the Cash Wars begin…

The situation should escalate. This will be the reason to to introduce a protection from unjustified run on the banks.  Сash must be punished to protect the Euro. Few stages to be expected:

  • impose the special taxes for cash withdrawal
  • an additional taxes on any cash operation
  • complete outlaw all cash operation except deposits

A very graphic image came to mind.  Yes, I am one of the ants.

I got really worried when Fitzwilson talked about a rapid collapse of the currency: Monday morning wake up and we've got ourselves a new currency.  A lot of us would be crunchy toast in that event.

Ants are also in danger when grasshoppers swarm.