Originally published at: China Halts Fuel Exports as G7 Adds to Record Drawdown, Putin Threatens Nukes if NATO Attacks Kaliningrad – Peak Prosperity
Energy
China’s last delivery of Iranian oil arrived on September 26. Iranian Gulf loadings had fallen to zero in September following the U.S. blockade, and China, previously taking 1.4 million barrels per day, imported 475,000 barrels per day before finally halting. Floating storage of Iranian oil dropped to 86 million barrels, with 23 million described as trapped. Independent refiners lost access to cheaper Iranian supply and turned to costlier alternatives as port volumes declined and Russian premiums rose. Iran may cut output from 3.2 million barrels per day as tanks fill, reports suggested.
Relatedly, Chinese refiners halted October fuel exports to rebuild stocks after Beijing withheld approvals beyond Hong Kong and Macau. PetroChina cancelled gasoline and jet shipments. Diesel inventories were reported 20 million barrels below the export threshold and gasoline 9 million barrels short. The pause has added pressure to markets already affected by conflict, and it remains unclear whether exports will resume after October 7, depending on inventories and output.
Adding to available supply, the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and other products on top of the IEA’s record 400 million-barrel release in March. Total volumes released since February exceed all four prior IEA emergency releases combined. At 800,000 barrels a day, the additional tranche would cover only a few percent of estimated 25-28 million barrels of daily diesel demand and, in the view of market observers, buy limited time without addressing refining or shipping losses. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said oil prices were starting to fall after the decision.
That all said, nearly half of 100 firms surveyed by the Dallas Fed said U.S. diesel prices would take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels. Executives warned that normalization would take over a year. One described diesel as “the mother’s milk of the economy,” saying impacts were just starting. Chevron’s CEO said a previously warned-of fuel crisis had arrived and that mitigating mechanisms had played out.
Geopolitics
Moscow wrote to NATO accusing it of unprecedented escalation and warning of readiness to use its full arsenal, including nuclear weapons, if Kaliningrad were directly attacked. President Putin cited recent NATO Baltic drills, ship-arrest attempts, and statements about Kaliningrad. NATO has characterized its recent Baltic drills as defensive deterrence operations with no intent to isolate or attack Russian territory.
In other Russian-European tensions, Russia expelled Hungarian diplomats from Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kazan in what it called retaliation for Hungary’s expulsion of ten Russian diplomats on spying suspicions. Prime Minister Péter Magyar, five months after defeating Viktor Orbán, has aligned more closely with the EU and allowed a 90 billion euro Ukraine loan previously vetoed.
Meanwhile, Iranian media said a 2.5 million-barrel supertanker was burning off Oman after an attack in the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran’s 45-day deadline related to a U.S. blockade passed. The U.S. is sending a third carrier group and Marines, adding 9,000-10,000 troops by November on top of more than 50,000 already in the region. Additionally, the U.S. moved two Patriot batteries to guard Saudi and Qatari energy sites.
Separately, Saudi Arabia is reportedly planning a Yemen offensive in the coming weeks to retake Bab el-Mandeb from Houthi control. It may involve a coastal strike or multi-front assault using more than 100,000 Yemeni troops and Saudi air power. The U.S. is providing intelligence, and Pakistan supplied gear and 30,000-40,000 defensive troops in the kingdom.
European Politics
Student protests hit 735 French schools Friday, with fires and projectiles met by tear gas. Demands included shorter hours and fewer absences. A policeman was beaten, a teacher doused with petrol, and a student lost an eye. Over 1,700 people were arrested. Injuries totaled 65 staff, 170 students and 300 police. Officials blamed France Unbowed, which denied involvement. More rallies were called, and a teacher-replacement plan was announced ahead of next year’s election. Jean-Luc Mélenchon stated that the protests began from genuine exasperation among students, teachers, and staff before spreading via social media.
Health
An audit of FOIA-released CDC V-safe free-text data identified 3,329 of 3,489,888 participants who submitted 14,430 entries that included pleas for help or reports of suicidal thoughts, dying, near-death experiences, or a death after COVID-19 vaccinations, according to the analysis. That equates to about one in 1,048. Some participants wrote repeatedly, and some noted a lack of callbacks and asked whether reports were being read. Cases attributed to COVID-19 itself were excluded. The audit did not assess causation and described the tally as a minimum.
Economy
Subprime auto bonds have held up despite borrower defaults in a review of nearly 3 million 2021-2023 loans. Average rates of 18 percent versus 6.7 percent bond yields, plus fees and collateral, provided a cushion. Exeter modified two-thirds of loans, a quarter of them four times, yet 25 percent of those still ended in repossession. 60-day delinquencies hit 8 percent, matching a 2018 high.
Privacy & Surveillance
St. Lucie County found 14 extra unpermitted Flock license-plate cameras in addition to 52 known ones. Eleven were of unknown ownership and data access. Unpermitted or mystery Flock units also appeared in towns in Massachusetts, Utah, and Florida. Prior reports documented installations without required permits in several states. Flock said permitting requirements vary by jurisdiction and are not necessary in every location.
Environment
Forecasters said remnants of Hurricanes Polo and Odalys are expected to merge with an upper-level low and form a hybrid storm that could produce flooding across a large area of the central United States. Flood watches covered ten states, including Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. AccuWeather forecast up to 18 inches of rain in isolated spots and described potential flash flooding in New Mexico as the most dangerous in more than five years. The low-pressure system alone is still expected to bring heavy rain. As many as 30 states may receive at least one inch. A Kelvin wave may raise California sea levels by up to a foot.
Sources
Three Storms Merge Into Rare Hybrid System, Flooding Central U.S.
Meteorologists are telling us that 3 enormous storms will combine to create an absolutely colossal “hybrid storm” that will cause “considerable” flooding over large stretches of the nation.
Source | Submitted by PhilH
CDC V-Safe Buried 3,329 Unanswered Cries for Help After COVID Shots
Their entries describe promised callbacks that never came, pleas for help with no reply, and repeated questions about whether anyone was reading at all.
China Halts October Fuel Exports to Prioritize Domestic Stocks Over Global Markets
It highlights that the government’s focus remains domestic supply security. International markets are an afterthought.
Russia Expels Hungarian Diplomats After Magyar’s Sharp Break From Orban’s Ukraine Policy
On Thursday Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it has moved to expel a group of Hungarian diplomats in a tit-for-tat action.
Subprime Auto Bonds Keep Performing as Borrowers Default
The consumer can be financially exhausted while the security built on top of the consumer continues functioning.
Iran Hits Supertanker in Hormuz as US Deploys Third Carrier, 10K Troops
Supertanker Ablaze After Iran Attack In Hormuz As US Deploys 10K More Troops & Third Carrier To Mideast
Mystery Flock Cameras Appear in Florida County With No Known Owner or Permit
St. Lucie County officials do not know who put up these cameras.
Oil Execs Warn Diesel Prices Won’t Normalize for Over a Year as Fuel Crisis Hits
Diesel is the mother’s milk of the economy
Iran’s Vanishing Oil Squeezes Markets as China Recovers and Hormuz Risks Rise
Iranian oil is disappearing from the market just as its biggest buyer returns for more.
Iran Strikes Another Tanker in Hormuz as Mainstream Media Looks Away
Several similar drone attacks have occurred this week, and over the last few days – however unlike with prior attacks these latest are not being heavily featured in the media, and have also made surprising little impact on oil prices.
Putin Warns NATO: Nukes Inevitable If Kaliningrad Attacked
If it comes to direct attack against the Russian Federation, in this case on Kaliningrad and possibly some other territories, of course the issue of using all weapons in our country’s arsenal will inevitably and unavoidably emerge on the agenda. This is unavoidable.
Saudis Plan Yemen Offensive to Break Houthi Grip on Red Sea Strait
Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen
IEA Record Releases Confess a Crisis, Not Comfort
A release this size is a confession, not reassurance.
French Student Protests Disrupt 735 Schools Amid Violence and Election-Year Blame
French high school students on Friday lit fires and hurled projectiles at police who responded by firing tear gas, as activists urged new rallies in an escalating protest movement demanding better conditions in education.
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: Santa Fe New Mexican, Vincent Iannelli, Reuters, The Straits Times, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, WANA, The Jerusalem Post, Flock Safety, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
