Civilizational Crisis: Tech, Housing, and Banking Sectors Flash Warning Signs

Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/daily-digest/civilizational-crisis-tech-housing-and-banking-sectors-flash-warning-signs/

Economy

Societal trends are highlighting economic challenges, with the percentage of 30-year-olds who are both married and homeowners dropping from over 50% in 1950 to below 15% in 2025, based on demographic data. Some are referring to this as a Civilizational Crisis. Meanwhile, economic indicators across a number of sectors are flashing major warning signs.

According to a Treasury report, the national debt is often cited at $37 trillion, but total obligations rise to $151 trillion when including unfunded liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare. This results in a net deficit of $143 trillion after accounting for government assets, equivalent to over $1 million per household. Mandatory spending accounts for 73% of federal outlays, and interest on debt is projected to reach $2 trillion within a decade, per federal estimates. However, the White House has emphasized efforts to protect Social Security and Medicare, dismissing claims of impending insolvency as alarmist, per recent statements.

In the tech sector, U.S. technology stocks have a valuation ratio of 2.2x relative to the S&P 500, exceeding the peak of the 2000 dot-com bubble and sitting above historical averages, according to market data. This concentration, alongside a gap between market weight and earnings contribution, is noted in financial analyses as a point of concern for some investors regarding the sustainability of current valuations. Conversely, some analysts argue that these valuations are justified by strong fundamentals and the tech sector’s growth, as reported by Bloomberg.

In the housing market, Redfin data indicates a gap of 508,715 more home sellers than buyers, the largest in over a decade. In the financial sector, U.S. banks report $413 billion in unrealized losses as of Q1 2025, according to industry figures. Stock market concentration shows the top 10 S&P 500 stocks comprising 40% of the index, compared to 27% during the 2000 dot-com bubble peak, while generating 30% of earnings, based on market data. Corporate earnings also reflect a significant deviation from long-term growth trends, according to financial analyses. Some analysts, however, argue that this deviation may be a temporary post-pandemic recovery effect, as reported by CNBC. Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position has reached 30% of total assets, a historic high, per company reports.

European Politics

In the UK, the recently enacted Online Safety Act, officially designed to protect children from harmful content, has drawn criticism one week after implementation. Some internet users report blocked access to content, including protest footage outside asylum hotels, personal stories, and other posts, while platforms like Reddit are reportedly requiring personal data for access. Critics argue that Ofcom’s authority to impose fines for non-compliance is already leading to over-censorship. A petition to repeal the law has garnered nearly half a million signatures. Additionally, a government unit, previously known as the Counter Disinformation Unit and now rebranded as the National Security and Online Information Team (NSOIT), has reportedly shifted focus from monitoring COVID-related dissent to targeting critics of mass migration and policing practices. According to reports, NSOIT is pressuring platforms like TikTok to address certain narratives under the stated goal of preventing unrest. The UK Home Office, however, defends NSOIT’s actions, stating that such monitoring is crucial for early detection of potential civil unrest and ensuring public safety, per official statements.

US Politics

A Super PAC named “MAGA Kentucky,” reportedly funded by three billionaires from outside the state with ties to Israel advocacy, has spent $1.8 million on attack ads targeting Republican Congressman Thomas Massie for his non-interventionist stance and opposition to foreign aid, according to campaign finance records. Massie’s supporters have responded by increasing contributions to his campaign, per public reports. Defenders of the PAC, including Trump operatives, argue that Massie’s voting record is out of step with broader Republican interests, as stated on X by Tony Fabrizio.

Separately, CIA Director John Ratcliffe has confirmed the possibility of indictments against former officials John Brennan, James Comey, and Hillary Clinton related to their alleged involvement in the Russiagate controversy, following referrals for prosecution, as reported by official statements. However, sources within the Department of Justice have indicated to The Washington Post that there is no current evidence supporting imminent indictments, with investigations still in early stages.

Sources

Uncle Sam’s Hidden Debt: Why $37 Trillion Is Just the Tip of a $151 Trillion Iceberg

Stacking these and other unfunded liabilities on top of the publicly-held national debt and other obligations, you arrive at a grand total of $151.3 trillion at the end of the 2024 fiscal year.

Source | Submitted by PhilH

Plummeting Rates of Marriage and Homeownership Among 30-Year-Olds Signal Civilizational Crisis

Estimated % of 30-Year-Olds Who Are Both Married and Homeowners

Source | Submitted by Patriot83

UK’s Online Safety Act: A Week In, and Internet Censorship Is Already Out of Control

The Online Safety Act has been in force for one week, and it’s already censoring rape victims, protest footage, and even lactose intolerance.

Source

Super PAC Targeting Rep. Thomas Massie Bankrolled by Israel-Supporting Billionaires

Three billionaires from New York City and Las Vegas have funded a superPAC deceptively named Kentucky MAGA to run millions of dollars of negative ads against me because I vote against foreign aid for Israel and needless wars in the Middle East.

Source

UK Government Unit Shifts from COVID Dissent to Monitoring Critics of Mass Migration

A spokesman for the Big Brother Watch anti-censorship group has called for an immediate investigation into the British government’s National Security and Online Information Team, warning that an “unaccountable and secretive Government unit is spying on speech that is critical of the police and Government policies”.

Source

U.S. Housing Market Sees Record Gap: 508,715 More Sellers Than Buyers, Redfin Reports

Redfin: U.S. housing market now 508,715 more home sellers than homebuyers

Source

CIA Director Confirms Potential Indictments for Brennan, Comey, and Clinton in Russiagate Scandal

So what I think I hear you saying is there is still an opportunity for indictments, potential prosecutions, accountability from those people who may have lied under oath, like John Brennan, James Comey, and perhaps Hillary Clinton.

Source

US Tech Stocks Hit Record 2.2x Ratio to S&P 500, Surpassing Dot-Com Bubble Peak

US technology stocks relative to the S&P 500 reached 2.2x in July, the most EVER recorded.

Source

US Stock Market Concentration Hits Record High, Echoes Dot-Com Bubble Risks

The top 10 stocks now make up a RECORD 40% of the S&P 500

Source

Earnings Hit Record Deviation from Long-Term Growth Trend, Analyst Warns

Earnings are THE most deviated from their long-term growth trend….ever.

Source

U.S. Banks Grapple with $413 Billion in Unrealized Losses in Q1 2025

U.S. Banks are now sitting on $413 billion in unrealized losses as of Q1 2025

Source

Berkshire Hathaway’s Cash Hoard Hits Historic 30% of Assets: Cause for Concern?

Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is now 30% of their total assets, the most in history

Source

In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: The White House, CNBC, UK Home Office, Tony Fabrizio, The Washington Post, and Bloomberg.

3 Likes

Yes indeed. Plummeting marriage and home ownership among 30 year olds is a civilization crisis. The federal government is manly responsible for creating this mess along with the federal reserve and it has been in the works since the 80’s.

When young people aren’t getting married and having babies, that flashes warning signs because that’s what keeps the social security ponzi scheme going. When young couples are happy and feel confident about their future, they make babies and those babies are future payees into the ponzi scheme.

Now you have young adults who can’t afford homes because they have been priced out. They were duped into going to college and are now loaded up with student loan debt with worthless degrees or jobs that don’t exist now working at Taco Bell with loans they will find difficult to get out of, if not impossible. This is how the government came up with the wild idea of importing future payees into the ponzi scheme/immigration.

This is what you call, “the snake eating its own tail”.

3 Likes

It’s my belief the unfunded liabilities is actually much higher than the quoted 151T I saw numbers of over 200T a decade ago. The argument at that point was social security doesn’t account for the declining births adding more strain to the reduced revenue. The higher interest rates are also a problem, as SSI goes negative revenue, the govt is going to be needing more in bonds to pay SSI recipients, plus the interest.

It is as if japanese formula (bank of japan was culprit causing bubble and crash) has been used deliberately in US. It has been constnat asset bubbles and asset stimulus (wallstreet, financials saved, people kicked out of their houses, banks still saved) for multiple decades.
Well japan has had same problems with families and population. Economy isnt rocket science, of course it has downward effects on families and whole nation.
As Chris has talked, or Ive filled out blanks, bankers are selfish, why would they do any other way when they can skim from the top any time stimulus or printing is done, getting rich themselves. Biggest mistake has been to let bankers run country.

I will add it is worse than you describe. Bailouts always happen in biggest (financial cities). So money skimmed from other regions via fiat and bank shenanigans are lost there, but bailout money goes straight to wallstreet or federal bank, not to rural/suburb areas where people can afford families. When money flows to “downstreet”, all jobs are hoovering there, but that doesnt help as apartments cost 1-10mn$ in decent size.

As this is ongoing pyramid scheme accumulating 99.99% of wealth to “downstreet”, immigrants cant help as most of them already go to nearby downstreet to work and are in exact same bind as everyone else. I think economists and all those folks are dumb as brick to not see this basic macro view.
Having snesible policies wont mean people have 10kids amish family. IT would be 70s style 2-3 kids most likely, but at least that would balance out economy and society to have robust kids vs working age vs pensioners ratio over time.

1 Like