Coffee and a Mike: "Why I HATE Microsoft"

[cmartenson (Chris Martenson)]

Originally published at: Coffee and a Mike: “Why I HATE Microsoft” – Peak Prosperity

Executive Summary

Chris and Mike dive into the complex and often underreported issues surrounding the current state of global economics, politics, and the potential for a significant financial reset. I explore the implications of these developments, particularly focusing on the Mar-a-Lago Accord and its potential impact on the global financial system. The conversation touches on the historical context of tariffs, the role of gold, and the shifting geopolitical landscape, all while considering the broader implications for the average person.

The Mar-a-Lago Accord

The Mar-a-Lago Accord is a proposed economic strategy that aims to restructure the global trading system. This plan, which has not been widely publicized, involves using tariffs as a tool to negotiate currency exchange rates and encourage international cooperation. The idea is reminiscent of past economic strategies like the Plaza Accord and the Smithsonian Agreement, where tariffs were used to bring countries to the negotiating table. The goal is to address the unsustainable levels of debt and the need for a monetary reset.

The Role of Gold

Gold is playing a crucial role in the current economic landscape. Since the U.S. sanctioned Russia’s sovereign reserves, there has been a significant shift in gold flows, with countries like China and India increasing their gold purchases. This movement suggests a lack of confidence in the U.S. dollar and a potential shift towards gold-backed currencies. The U.S. has also been repatriating large amounts of gold, raising questions about the motivations behind these actions.

Key Data

• The U.S. holds about 30% of the world’s total debt, despite being only 5% of the global population.
• Since February 2022, there has been a sustained rise in the price of gold, with significant purchases by China and India.
• The U.S. has repatriated at least 500 tons of gold from London since Trump’s election.

Predictions

• The current economic system is unsustainable and will likely lead to a significant financial reset.
• There will be a shift towards a multipolar world, with China emerging as a major economic force.
• Gold-backed currencies could become a viable alternative to the U.S. dollar.

Implications

• The average person may experience a loss of purchasing power as the economic system undergoes changes.
• There could be significant disruptions in the global financial system, affecting everyday transactions and savings.
• People may need to adapt to a new economic reality, with potential changes in employment and financial stability.

Recommendations

• Consider holding gold as an insurance policy against potential economic instability.
• Evaluate personal skills and how they add value in a changing economic landscape.
• Stay informed about global economic developments and their potential impact on personal finances.

[mainiac (Robert Duggan)]

I was born in 71’, I’m an Electrician and we talked about moving to New Zealand as well before they went full retard.
Great interview

[davefairtex]

I used to track TCMDO/GDP long ago. I haven’t looked in a while. Here’s what it looks like now. Can this be correct?

[redneck-engineer]

Well… I can see the COVID spike. Maybe the drawdown from 2011-2020 was people not having ability or desire to load up on debt?

This may require decomposing the aggregate debt into different components to divine what’s going on.

[biro]

I’ve given some thought to moving abroad (again) and it would have to be the UK despite all its drawbacks, restrictions to free speech and terrible economic prospects. But, at the end of the day, its countryside and quaintness trumps all else. Brits are friendly enough too.

[mecheng69]

Except the Bat shit bonkers enforcement arm. (yes I’m borrowing Katie Hopkins tag line). I’ll post some Pic’s of Tasmania when we get back, it’s supposed to have a very English feel to it, if your interested Biro.

[pnwdefector]

@davefairtex

I used to track TCMDO/GDP long ago. I haven’t looked in a while. Here’s what it looks like now. Can this be correct?

They swapped out the data for Mitch McCconnel’s EKG stats around 2008 or maybe 2009.

[boomer41]

@biro

I’ve given some thought to moving abroad (again) and it would have to be the UK despite all its drawbacks, restrictions to free speech and terrible economic prospects. But, at the end of the day, its countryside and quaintness trumps all else.

I was a Brit. Immigrated to the US in 1970 and became a citizen. I still have family back there, with whom I am close and I visit from time to time.
Countryside and quaintness is still real in a few places but the rest of it - the social climate, nanny state, lack of freedom, crazy restrictions on free speech, miserable weather, are all real too.
Believe me, moving there would be a bad move. You couldn’t pay me enough to go back.

[redneck-engineer]

Great talk Chris - and refreshing to hear a voice of optimism for the future.

[findingmyway]

Get this. Bought some muffin tins. Opening the package, out fell a User Agreement…

[nokaoiken]

Kind of reminds me of California, where I left in the 70’s into the military and never returned. With the exception of weather, if harris would have been cheated in like biden was, same

[cmartenson (Chris Martenson)]

@davefairtex

I used to track TCMDO/GDP long ago. I haven’t looked in a while. Here’s what it looks like now. Can this be correct?

Hmmm…that’s surprising to me. I’m not at home at present so I’m unable to access my main files, but from memory TCMDO is up ~25% from 2020, from ~$80 trillion to over $100 trillion.

It means that GDP is up by a similar amount, which might be less surprising once I recall that government deficit spending alone is ~7% of “GDP.”

Of course, government really shouldn’t be included in GDP, something even Elon remarked on recently:

[cmartenson (Chris Martenson)]

@redneck-engineer

Great talk Chris - and refreshing to hear a voice of optimism for the future.

I’m extraordinarily optimistic for the future…with a couple of huge caveats.

I’m optimistic about what’s possible.

I’m also realistic about the fact that my country is shot through with people who would really like to destroy that optimism and get us back to the authoritarian nanny state, with eventual gulags, for which they yearn & strive.

The Zelensky Rorshach test is certianly instructive.

I am personally thrilled that Trump sees that Ukriane has already lost and that he wants to end the deaths for both sides.

US MSM has rallied to th eother side of that equation. These people truly sicken me. This is more than a difference of opinion, this is a choice they have made to side with evil.

https://x.com/ClownWorld_/status/1895855727031558219

And here’s the other side, on which I find myself.

https://x.com/CynicalPublius/status/1895559882708832616

[davefairtex]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCMDO
Q3 2024: 101,352.642

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
Q3 2024: 29,374.914

3.45, give or take. I was surprised too, looking at your line charts.

[wilderabbit]

Ah, this explains why I see a sudden new crop of Ukrainian flags by my leftie friends in social media.

[sand_puppy (sand_kitty)]

@wilderabbit, Yes, mine too. Heart shapped Ukrainan flags and the words “I support Ukraine” by which they mean that they WANT THE KILLING TO CONTINUE.

Because, Bad Putin.

[mark_bc]

Two comments. Firstly, regarding government spending being subtracted from GDP, I understand why Elon suggests that but this problem only really exists in a country like the US which has the reserve currency and can print up trillions, export it for a trade deficit, and continue this “indefinitely” without major ramifications to its currency.

A country like Argentina couldn’t do this; it tried that kind of socialist spending and the effect in large part was the destruction of its currency. So that would be how inefficient government wastage would be accounted for, as its GDP is adjusted for a weaker currency.

The government can definitely do good things. What about building or upgrading a road? If we deleted government spending from GDP how would road building be accounted for? Maybe the downstream private money flows, as that money gets spent into the economy, would account for that? I’m actually asking, I wonder how that would work. And privatizing that asset wouldn’t work since it’s hard to have free competition between companies if there’s only one road to your house and you have no choice but to pay that one company’s toll for the privelege if driving on its road to your house. And your tolls could not support a toll booth at every intersection as you shift from one company’s road to another. The alternative is automated tolls at every intersection. Which I’m sure people here are not in favour of for the obvious privacy issues… Sounds like a nightmare to me. Some things need to stay public.

Secondly, it looks like the imminent restructuring is going to be very difficult for the average person. I am wondering how this will play out politically over the next term. Many in the Austrian economics camp believe that after the initial reset, we will rebuild and things will gradually get better as the economy organically restructures into more “productive” activities. I disagree, but regardless, even if this improvement was to happen, it would not happen during Trump’s term. So this will just confirm to all the Trump haters that he is responsible for destroying the economy. They’ll probably get a lot of Trump supporters to move over to that camp. Poverty will have that effect. They will have no interest in learning about how all the previous “stability” was just a ponzi scheme illusion that was going to crash inevitably anyways, and it just so happened to happen during Trump’s term, with a littie nudge of course…

So what does that mean for the next election? Will another Keynesian get in, promising a return to the good old days? Some may say this is too far off to worry about right now, but I disagree…

I know I said I had 2 comments, but my third is that we need to consider how the little people are going to fare. Austrian economics doesn’t work. It only has the appearance of working in a country that has enough resources to support real growth. That’s why Milei may come out looking like a hero as he rapes his country’s non renewable resources to create jobs and GDP growth. If Milei was in his position in a country like the US that doesn’t have these resources, he would fail, since Austrian economics can’t handle a stagnant or decreasing GDP. Its model of “production” is flawed.

It’s great that we’re starting to discuss the massive unemployment on the horizon from both AI and the financial reset, but we still haven’t started seriously talking about what that means to the average person and how he/she is going to be able to support themself. There will only be so much demand for philosophers-turned-plumbers. This isn’t simply an academic exercise that only has relevance for Trump’s popularity for next election; it has much greater social impact since the current parh of austerity plus great reset will not work in the US.

[th1 (Timo Hallikainen)]

@mark_bc

hers-turned-plumbers. This isn’t simply an academic exercise that only has relevance for Trump’s popularity for next election; it has much greater social impact since the current parh of

Im just superficially comparing Argentina and USA. In hyperinflation, very high inflation case like Argentina, public workers tend to benefit simply by keeping their jobs(looking how FED money always goes to government first, then “trickles” down[There might be some actual concept word to depict this supply chain step of money in society… how many times it has traded hands symbolically after “printed”] with big or small delay to other entities in society, thus in high inflation where time is money, government people are least bad off… government is self surviving entity in this respect). Private companies degrade and go bust. This is most important aspect in Argentina to tip this scale to favor private companies better as 50% of people simply cannot work for taxmoney institution as was trend there. Same is somewhat smaller degree in US that they try to stop or even slow down. Of austrian economics, I havent delved into current news and those countries to connect dots.

From superficial view, these kind of simplistic, badly managed high inflation economies are exactly “austrian economics” raw resource economies as there is no added value that stays there long enough nor incentive to develop anything more complex which means delay which looses instant value and thus extremely high risk. Basicly lunch is eaten before it is paid for.

In that philosopher problem… ancient greek had maybe 10% “elite”… which are basicly western populations in current form. Yet we are too many with 1Bn population out of 8-9Bn total so healthy amount was some 5%, which is basicly only US+Canada. AI is taking jobs like India took factory jobs from 1950s England. This is really tough nut to crack. Simply because "tech will solve it " didnt solve it last time. People did. Was early 1900s similar phase in US? As they introduced some decade long immigration blockade and economy was tough, but mostly there were huge amount of fresh immigrants, no jobs for them, and that is not good thing. Too fast change builds up problems(too many new people flooding to places without time to settle and then next wave comes and next).

[pnwdefector]

@cmartenson

And here’s the other side, on which I find myself.

https://x.com/CynicalPublius/status/1895559882708832616

There’s been an awful lot of Columbian mercs over there getting merc’d fighting with the 'kraine.

[etox]

Please add it to the Consumer Action Taskforce wiki! Consumer_Action_Taskforce