Doug wrote:
Quote:
Most scary is the polar shift, it is accelerating. This will very probably mean that the protective shield around the earth will disappear in the near future, then we will have so much radiation most of the life/people could die from cancer.
Over Christmas my niece was visiting for a while. She is a geophysicist specializing in this very topic. I asked her about the polar shift. She shrugged her shoulders and said probably not any time soon, but it is an outside possibility. But, even if it does happen it probably won't be that big a deal.
Doug,
I just found an interesting PDF at
https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1040918.pdf Titled:
CATACLYSMIC POLARITY SHIFT
IS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY PREPARED FOR THE NEXT GEOMAGNETIC POLE REVERSAL?
This 2015 paper was written by Tyler J. Williams, Capt. USAF in partial fulfillment of graduation requirements. I estimate that the audience he was addressing were non-tecnically minded USAF personnel. His writing is easy to read and doesn't include too much confusing jargon. You should be able to easily digest it. The .pdf is 71 pages, of which 50 pages are the body (double spaced) and the rest is foreground information or references. Let's begin with the Abstract. [Note that all bolding is mine.]
ABSTRACT
The Earth’s core is undergoing a dramatic change with geomagnetic field strength dropping by 40% over the last 400 years, and satellite observations showing the field weakening ten times faster than previously calculated. These changes are a precursor to a common geological phenomenon known as a geomagnetic polarity reversal, where the north and south magnetic poles of the Earth reverse. Geomagnetic polarity reversals significantly decrease the strength of the magnetic field, thereby considerably increasing the interaction of the solar wind with the Earth’s atmosphere and biosphere. The purpose of this research is to answer if the United States is prepared for the impacts to national security resulting from the next geomagnetic polarity reversal.
The report begins with an overview of pole reversals, then evaluates the effects of reversals on United States national security by utilizing six evaluation criteria ranging from infrastructure areas such as the electrical power grid to national response capabilities. The research evaluates the impacts of increases in solar and cosmic radiation and the threat of adverse space weather during a polarity transition on United States national security.
This research concluded that the nation is not prepared for both geomagnetic polarity reversals and adverse space weather. Furthermore, the nation has neglected funding for geoscience and geomagnetism research. Based on the conclusions, this research recommends increasing geoscience and geomagnetism funding, spearheading an international geomagnetic initiative, developing response, recovery and risk plans at the national level and preparing the national infrastructure for the threats posed by pole reversals.
He goes on to say that reversals have happened 143 times in the last 40 million years. In the last 25 million years, reversals occur on average every 250 thousand years. Our last reversal was 780 thousand years ago, so we're overdue given recent geologic history. He also notes that we've had several excursions (failed reversal attempt) since the last reversal. What we're experiencing with magnetic pole migration may be the beginnings of a reversal or just another excursion. We won't know until we know.
Over the course of several hundred to thousand years during the reversal, the magnetic field becomes distorted and weakened.21The magnetosphere fluctuates from a geomagnetic dipole to multipolar field, decreasing in strength down to ten percent of its average intensity.22
With a weaker magnetosphere, the earth is more susceptible to solar storms, solar flares, solar coronal mass ejections, and intergalactic cosmic rays. The weaker shield will also leave our outer atmosphere less protected against the solar wind, thus stripping oxygen and ozone (the good kind) away. High altitude ozone blocks UV radiation. The loss of protection effect is more pronounced at high latitudes. That means that Canada will be more exposed than Costa Rica to mutagenic and carcinogenic radiation.
The strongest CME to hit Earth in the modern era was the 1859 Carrington event, which disrupted telegraph services around the northern hemisphere causing machines to catch fire, operator injuries, and created auroras as far south as Cuba.43
The Carrington event caused an electromagnetic pulse (EMP.) We were just starting to use electricity back then. Imagine how much damage a similar event would cause today to our electrical grid. How likely would that be?
The likelihood of a CME striking the Earth during a polarity reversal is very high. During the 11-year solar cycle, the Sun produces one ejection per week at solar minimum, with 2 to 3 events per day at solar maximum.47 In a 200-year period for polarity reversal completion, the Sun would produce a minimum of 10,000 CME events assuming solar minimum numbers, with several superstorm events like the one in 1859.48 As stated by renowned Physicist Dr. Michio Kaku, the United States is, “…playing Russian roulette with the Sun. Sooner or later we are going to lose that bet…”
Fortunately, the sun has had reduced numbers of sunspots the last 2 cycles and is forecast to have even more reduced output for the next 2 cycles. Still, that's not much relief if the reversal takes centuries to occur. He later shows Figure 5 - a map of the electrical backbone grid of the lower 48 states (I can't copy the picture) that shows the likely areas to be affected by a Carrington event if it happened today. The eastern third of the country north of Florida would be hit as would the Pacific Northwest States of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. (It isn't clear to me why the midwest wouldn't be hit unless this were a simulation based on the Carrington event time of day. He provides a link to a source, but that link is dead.)
It's not just the grid that would be affected. Unhardened satellites would fail, anything relying on steady electricity would encounter extreme difficulties. Modern farming relies on center pivot irrigation to a large extent. Without electricity, the pumps don't work and the pivoting doesn't happen - and that's assuming the motors aren't fried by the EMP. The EMP would likely fry all computer electronics and electrical wires in motors. Essentially, large swaths of the country would be driven back to the 1800s almost instantaneously.
I'm trying to figure out why your niece was so cavalier about it all. Either
she is only looking at the geophysical aspect without considering the human aspect,
she doesn't know that of which she speaks, or
she knows you well enough to know that you don't take well to facts that don't align with your belief system. To keep peace and harmony at the family gathering, she just proffered a throw-away remark - thinking that it wouldn't go anywhere.
Although this quote was early in the paper, it was my favorite, so in closing, I'll post it here. Remember, the bolding is mine.
Unlike the debate surrounding man-made climate change and global warming, polarity reversals are a proven natural phenomenon that have occurred hundreds of times in the Earth’s past, and will happen again in the future.4
Grover
The correct conclusion to be drawn here is that the earth has warmed in recent decades, but they have not been the warmest on record in the U.S. in terms of extreme temperatures. The problem with trying to blame climate change for the ecological crises is that the the situation is not crystal clear and supported by sparkling clean, undeniable data.
In my opinion, climate change has nothing to do with the developing ecological crisis in which we find ourselves. It pleases me that Chris says that our problems transcend climate change.
