Purely informational.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/02/russian-disinformation-coronavirus/
This comment refers to the Charles Hugh Smith article linked from comment #29 - not Chris’s article.
I read a lot of Charles’ stuff and I like his blog. I read and enjoyed his novel - which I recommend by the way - it’s an enjoyable read :-).
But this particular article, from a mathematics perspective, is horse shit. He picks and chooses his data, double counts, makes unsupported assertions and generally plays fast and loose with logic.
That’s not to say that I disagree with the position that we need to be concerned, and that the facts we do have are alarming. We do and they are. That still doesn’t excuse bad maths and poor logic 
But they are very innocent. We are talking about the institute who leaked mouth and food disease in England. And doing research into swine flu. You know what is killing pigs in China.
https://www.pirbright.ac.uk/news/2020/01/pirbright’s-livestock-coronavirus-research-–-your-questions-answered
The latest data shows infections are still growing at (or very close to) an exponential rate:
Zerohedge has an article about nCoV which contains an interview with Professor Boyle who believes, based on the currently available evidence, that the Wujan virus outbreak is a China-Chernobyl-type accident, a ‘spill’ from a BSL 4 in Wujan; that nC0V is a bioengineered version of SARS capable of lethal penetration of a human population (83% infection rate; 15% mortality rate), as we are seeing in China and may yet see elsewhere. If true, this is going to be catastrophic. Please review the Zero post and comment if you feel compelled to do so. Thanks, Doc
Please have Chris post an outbreak curve for non-China cases of nCoV. I think that this curve will be more informative of the pattern of future growth of the outbreak than curves that incorporate (likely erroneous) Chinese data. Thanks, Doc
- If a lot more infections are not reported because of lack of testing or mild symptoms, and if deaths are more likely to be reported (stands to reason), then then the CFR and serious complication rate would actually be much lower. Lack of foregrounding this reasoning. and refuting it if there is a good refutation, could be used to support the accusation of fear-mongering here.
- Two California patients (the San Benito county folks) have been admitted to hospital in San Francisco, after they took a turn for the worse (as reported in Flutrackers). I don’t know if that means they are in critical condition - or just that we have designated hospitals for coronavirus the way we did for ebola.
- Interesting statement by public health - they are not trying to halt the spread of virus, as “that would be impossible,” just slow it down: https://www.mdedge.com/internalmedicine/article/216595/coronavirus-updates/novel-coronavirus-cases-now-11-entry-ban-and
- This is the link to the newsletter I sent my patients:
https://mailchi.mp/c38c292e8845/coronavirus-optimizing-our-immune-system - Here is the reference on ARDS (the condition that kills coronavirus patients) clearly stating that it is related to excessive inflammation (“borderpatrol” said he thought that was wrong):
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6046379/ - I plotted the new cases worldwide as reported by gisandata.coronavirus as of today:
Just give it a little bit of time. it takes almost as much time to incubate as its been in the news. this will mushroom in about 10-15 days.
In a country where the media creates the talking points, why is everything inverted right now?
Think about it. Lately, every storm system to pass through is a “CODE RED” storm of the century.
“This weather update brought to you courtesy of GENERAC Home Generators and The Home Depot! STAY TUNED!”
Everything in the 1st World is a crisis these days.
Except for this.
Go figure.
Hi, Adam, it indeed looks like we’re not breaking trend. Also, here is today’s edition of the Japanese TV show that is tracking the number of cases in Wuhan vs in the rest of China:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RZJRkBgLLc
At about 1:30:00 (towards the end), they show the updated graph, and it looks like the trend in Wuhan itself has also reversed and is back on track to being exponential! Draconian quarantine is apparently NOT working.
I would not read much into the demand. there are 11M in wuhan. I would think at a mere daily death rate of 10/100k this would mean 1100 people die locally. I am only going by my local town in TN … of course this is US and the So, so we may have a higher death rate than in wuhan but the point remains … that I can understand the numbers without something happening huge with the virus Actually, if wuhan had the same average death rate as the US, then there would an expected 206 deaths each day. so , then maybe something does seem a bit off.
Is it possible to use the varying ACE II numbers in different races to extrapolate a different R0 by race?
ie a possible R0 of 4.1 in Japan vs a possible R0 of 1.5 for a group with a much lower ACE II presence?
I can see this being a sensitive subject and want to broach it with all due delicacy…
Could you use the ACE II differences to come up with an R0 that, rather than only a rate of transmissibility, could be used as a possible rate of receptivity?
not sure if I’m making sense…
It’s way too early on coronavirus to make any assessments on number of infections, severity of illness, and deaths outside of China. The number of travelers out of China is/was a finite & linear. It probably takes 7-14 days to manifest symptoms once initially infected. And, when it comes to deaths it probably takes around 14 to 28+ days. So, not enough time has passed to know the severity of illness in those who acquired the virus in China and traveled outside. Those infected people most certainly infected others during their travels & after they arrived in their destination countries. It is only February 3 today. This just got going 2-3 weeks ago in China, & I don’t believe the travel ban took place until a few days ago.
Humans in general have difficulty conceptualizing exponential growth. Exponential growth is like watching grass grow in the beginning, and then as it gets going people can not fathom how things ballon to unimaginable sizes much much quicker than expected. Search “Albert Bartlett exponential” on YouTube for a quick primer, or see Chapter #3 #4 of the Crash Course here at www.Peakprosperity.com.
I’m not an epidemiologist, infectious disease specialist, or know many of the details of this outbreak. I also probably have some of the details wrong about the timeline of this outbreak. Seems to me too many people are getting lost in some of the details. I frankly can not see how this devil genie can be put back in it’s bottle. My suspicion is that the sense of American & Western country exceptionalism is absurdly strong. Microbes don’t give a shit where you live.
Dryam2000, good post until you got to the part about American exceptionalism and microbes not caring where we live. What? That was… odd. We are not exceptional. You are right though we are all susceptible and many of us are very empathetic to those who are suffering.
It is all very disconcerting because people just really, really want to believe the problem is over there not here. I found myself contemplating whether I should wipe down my Amazon order with disinfecting wipes. There are so few I can talk to about something like that because they would think I am crazy and paranoid. I suspect not for long though.
Find I am a bit obsessed with the topic. Its very interesting, we are living in a historical event.
AKGrannyWGrit
Last week, every plane that carried an infected passenger to the US was a test laboratory for the coronavirus. The flight from Shanghai to San Francisco is about a dozen hours, more than sufficient time for the virus to spread. Fellow passenger and crew, if infected, should begin showing symptoms this week. The number of infected persons will provide strong evidence of the communicability of the virus. If the number is low (hopefully), containment may be possible. On the other hand, if more than a dozen passengers and crew acquired the virus, containment will be challenging, perhaps impossible without draconian measures. If crew members become infected, the infection will explode because the flight crews would continue to fly, exposing hundreds of passengers daily. The fact that the initial carriers were Chinese simplified the identification. Once the virus permeates the general population, everyone will become suspects. For the US, this week will be crucial. Expect panic if many of the passengers and crew have gotten infected.
My point was many Americans, my family included, do not even have Coronavirus on their radar…at all, even many physicians I work with. Americans typically have a sense that by being in America they are somehow immune from the badness that most other people across the globe deal with on a daily basis. Yes, microbes are 100% oblivious to what borders they cross and subsequently replicate in an exponential fashion thereafter.
Btw, if anyone thinks the US healthcare system is going to save them if they get real sick from this virus & need high level care, they are severely misguided. I’ve been trying to tell people. A bad flu season puts many hospitals at 100% capacity.
Disinformation by officials hard to take. Thank G*d for higher than average IQ of PP posters. As per you tube by Dr. Ken Berry, MD, all mucous membranes suceptable; don’t forget area where the sun don’t shine. My defences include, thin laytex gloves that I will double and n95 mask when I venture out, safety glasses. At home take 10,000 IU vitamin D with vitamin K2. Antioxidant chain, vitamin C (2000mg) vit E, zinc, selenium(400microg). Medicinal mushrooms. Dilute clorox spray bottle, colloidal silver spray bottle. Supplement magnesium, potassium, use Himalayan pink salt on food. Use stevia, not sugar, no junk food, no vegetable oils. Hydrate, sleep, pray.
Looks like the paper that claimed nCov had HIV genes has been retracted.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/03/retraction-faulty-coronavirus-paper-good-moment-for-science/