tourcarve, I won’t argue with you, I won’t post any more today, but with due respect can you just look at what you just said? “Later on, questions about how this virus came to be will be important.” Are you in charge of deeming what are important topics and what are not? Can you provide a date for when ‘later’ is for this discussion will be important? Can you please give a list of what topics are helpful and what are not so I know what not to ask in the future?
This is my first line of defense for any thing respiratory, sniffles, sore throat, eye infections, topical stuff. Use as nose drops, gargle. 10ppm from Soverign is my choice.
I also have some silver gel.
Thank you Chris and Adam for such excellent information on this virus.
I worry about two general and perhaps widely convincing criticisms of the reporting here.
- If a lot more infections are not reported because of lack of testing or mild symptoms, and if deaths are more likely to be reported (stands to reason), then then the CFR and serious complication rate would actually be much lower. Lack of foregrounding this reasoning. and refuting it if there is a good refutation, could be used to support the accusation of fear-mongering here.
- The lack of evidence of rapidly spreading illnesses outside of China would seem among the most important news to be reported here. Though Chris's videos have the touched on this, the lack of foregrounding it could be used to support the accusation of fear-mongering here.
If Tesla never makes any money then what’s the difference between 500 and $1000? Its all printed up money inflating the company stock to fund bringing electric cars to market. As long as the printing presses continue there is no limit.
Edit: it might be because of tesla’s disastrous financials and the powers that be can’t let it fail. So they shovel money into its stock to give it operating cash. Expect it to climb much higher, until the inevitable end. Not there yet though.
Very interesting how the virus is killing people outside of China.
Very relieving information at this time. Shouldn’t be long until reported cases outside of China reach 300. We are currently at 155.
Charles Hugh Smith does another analysis reviewing the scope of the information available. He draws from Chris’ discussions and videos and a number of the informal sources discussed here at PP.
Pandemic is inevitable at this point. Brace for Impact.
A couple of highlights.
- Tracking cases and contacts–the technique that “defeated SARS”–doesn’t and cannot work here.
A statistical study from highly credentialed Chinese academics estimates the virus has an RO (R-naught) of slightly over 4, meaning every carrier infects four other people on average. This is very high. Run-of-the-mill flu viruses average about 1.3 (i.e. each carrier infects 1.3 other people while contagious). Chris Martenson (PhD) goes over the study in some detail in this video. Let's say the study over-estimates the contagiousness due to insufficient data, etc. Even an RO of 3 means the number of infected people rises geometrically (parabolically). This matters because it negates any plan to track every potentially infected person who came in contact with a carrier.2. How it is spread
Coronaviruses tend to be contagious in relatively close contact (within two meters / six feet) but masks may not be enough protection, as it may spread by contact with surfaces and through [contact with] the [conjunctival surfaces of] the eyes. ...[T]his virus is highly contagious.3. The contagion that has already happened, but is not yet evident
Nobody seems to be tracking the origin point of travelers. If an asymptomatic carrier from Wuhan took a train or flight to Beijing last week (exposing other passengers to the pathogen) and then boarded a flight from Beijing to SFO (San Francisco), the presumption would be that the traveler is from Beijing. Tens of thousands of people have boarded flights in China over the past month and deplaned in international destinations. The likelihood that some consequential percentage of these travelers originated from Wuhan, or were infected by someone from Wuhan, is high. It's basically impossible to thread these three points together and not conclude that a massive expansion of the virus is about to manifest in dozens of international destinations. Put another way: this virus is a nearly ideal combination of contagiousness and asymptomatic transmission that enables a rapid spread of the virus via people who have no idea they're carriers. [Limited contact in an airplane or airport can spread the infection.]4. Many have already fled quarantined cities. Lockdowns are porous. Large incetives to leave the quarantined ares. Efforts now are too late.
...[The] mass movement of informal-economy workers more or less insures the virus has spread far and wide from Wuhan long before the city was fully locked down.5. The mortality rate is hard to pin down, but is significant.
The mortality rate of the virus is hard to pin down for a number of reasons. One is that mortality is a time-series, meaning counting those who have died isn't an accurate measure of all those who are infected who may die in the near future. Furthermore, the official totals are suspect, as numerous anecdotal reports have come out indicating people who died were mis-classified as victims of "pneumonia." Other reports indicate the overwhelmed healthcare system in Wuhan has been sending corpses to be cremated without proper identification of the cause of death. It appears Chinese officialdom is reverting to the same tactics used in 2003 to suppress data about SARS and downplay the dangers of the pathogen. It seems highly unlikely that the death totals being announced are accurate, and highly likely that the totals are a fraction of actual deaths. There isn't enough trustworthy data to estimate the mortality rate of the virus, but even the official totals, when coupled with the number of patients in intensive care, suggests a higher rate of mortality than typical flu viruses but less than SARS 9%.6. Scooting around quarantine barriers
A large number of Chinese people work overseas, and they will be returning to their jobs this coming week, as the official New Year's holiday ended 2 February. While some airlines have stopped flights to and from China, not all airlines have done so. So these workers have a number of ways to get back to their overseas jobs: catch a flight to somewhere outside China and then catch a flight to Europe, Africa, the U.S. etc. Nassim Taleb co-authored a paper (download available on his site) that explained why the only way to limit the spread of the virus is to severely limit connectivity of people and transport: the more connections exist, the greater the number of avenues for the virus to spread.Lots of additional insightful discussion! Recommended.
From the very sharp and superb invesigative reporter Whitney Webb who did the best reporting out there connecting the dots on Epstein, comes this recent article documenting important info on the connections of bat/Corona researchers the origins of the bioweapons narratives and soon to be Vaccine developers, Worth a read! mm https://www.unz.com/wwebb/bats-gene-editing-and-bioweapons-recent-darpa-experiments-raise-concerns-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/
Examining the Recent Wuhan-Bioweapon Narrative
As the coronavirus outbreak has come to dominate headlines in recent weeks, several media outlets have promoted claims that the reported epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, China was also the site of laboratories allegedly linked to a Chinese government biowarfare program.
However, upon further examination of the sourcing for this serious claim, these supposed links between the outbreak and an alleged Chinese bioweapons program have come from two highly dubious sources.
For instance, the first outlet to report on this claim was Radio Free Asia, the U.S.-government funded media outlet targeting Asian audiences that used to be run covertly by the CIA and named by the New York Times as a key part in the agency’s “worldwide propaganda network.” Though it is no longer run directly by the CIA, it is now managed by the government-funded Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG), which answers directly to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who was CIA director immediately prior to his current post at the head of the State Department.
In other words, Radio Free Asia and other BBG-managed media outlets are legal outlets for U.S. government propaganda. Notably, the long-standing ban on the domestic use of U.S. government propaganda on U.S. citizens was lifted in 2013, with the official justification of allowing the government to “effectively communicate in a credible way” and to better combat “al-Qaeda’s and other violent extremists’ influence.”
I may be a new poster here, but I’ve been on the internet and BBSs, since the early 90’s. Even without that background, if one were to only read the major newspapers, there has always been a certain amount of B.S., conjecture, gossip, and myths about every event, from the smallest to the largest.
One should always keep an open mind regarding information regardless of where you see it. Do your due diligence when confronted by information that is counter-narrative, or narrative fulfilling, either can be used against you in a time of crisis. That was true in the days of the pony express and beyond, it is more true today than ever.
I’m going to follow standard flu season protocols, frequent hand cleaning with sanitizer, avoiding touching my face, avoid people who have flu like symptoms. I went to storage and got my epidemic preps (masks, gloves, goggles, hand wipes,) just so they’re more readily available. Went to the store and got severe cold and flu meds, because those are already getting low in stock because we’re in flu season.
“Prior planning prevents poor performance and panic” is my mantra. Don’t panic, it’s the flu. Prepare, because it could become a pandemic (if it isn’t already.) Know what a pandemic could do globally and locally to supply lines.
With all that said, I found these articles interesting, and certain that it will provide fodder for conspiracy theorists, but it may provide others with information helpful in preparing for the future.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/scientific-puzzles-surrounding-the-wuhan-novel-coronavirus_3225405.html
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3048772/striking-coronavirus-mutations-found-within-one-family-cluster
Four tests were needed to confirm a case of in northern China, highlighting the difficulty of screening for the previously unknown illness, which has spread throughout the world.The patient, a 55-year-old railway worker living Tianjin, a megacity next to the capital of Beijing, was identified as a potential case in mid-January because he had been in “close contact” with a number of infected patients in the city, according to the local health commission.
On January 19, the man developed a fever and, a week later, he went to hospital and was tested twice for the virus. The results were negative and he was quarantined at home.
He had fever again on January 27, but the third test the next day again indicated that he was not infected.
It was only until January 30, when he was tested again that he was confirmed as infected, making him Tianjin’s 28th case.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048748/not-one-four-tests-later-chinese-man-finally-confirmed
Two returning Chinese students here in NH had symptoms but were sent home after testing negative once.
The NIH weighs in:
(Source)NIH doctor says 25% of coronavirus cases in China are ‘very serious,’ requiring ‘intensive care’
PUBLISHED MON, FEB 3 202012:14 PM ESTUPDATED 35 MIN AGODr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health told CNBC on Monday that a quarter of China’s coronavirus cases require intensive treatment. “About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care,” said the director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. (...) “It’s escalating,” Fauci said on “Squawk on the Street.” “The number of cases that increase from one day to another is clearly going up in a very steep slope.” There are many health-care professionals and analysts, including Fauci, who believe the number of coronavirus cases to be much higher. “There are probably a lot more people who were infected in China who have not been really counted ... because they were either asymptomatic or their symptoms were so light that they didn’t come to the attention of health authorities,” Fauci said. “The number is probably much larger.”
Prefect chaos virus.
There have been sporadic pictures/videos of people just falling over either dead or unconscious. Here’s a CCTV video from today that just makes you wonder what the virus is doing that causes people who are apparently OK to fall over and go into a seizure…God help us all.
https://twitter.com/hongyihope/status/1224358073252249600?s=20
Several comments from those within China tell of a hospital system where if you don’t have the cash for treatment, your care is very minimal. I wonder if this number is skewed badly. How many stay home, self treat and die? And how many come to the hospital, get little treatment and die? Or get better. Or are only affected marginally?
Not sure how that would affect the CFR and SCR rates. From all the non-CCP reports, the illness/death rate is pretty high though.
The global politically correct speech habits may actually be not helpful at this time. I doubt the numbers would make a big difference in contagiousness, but if the race of an individual makes a difference in how severe the illness may be, I would think people within that group would want to know. A change in behavior is the only way to avoid catching it at this time. I have noticed that news reports have mentioned nationalities of victims, but have been mum on race. Exposing this data would not be racist, it would be a caution for extra vigilance and self protection for members of that group.
Let’s put it another way. Please tell me if I have this wrong as I admit I have no medical training. This virus enters cells using this ACE-2 pathway. I presume then that it can not enter cells without it. If the body has no natural resistance or defense, and takes a week or more to start to build one, then we might as well assume the virus has a chance in infect ALL the available receptor cells. Now looking at the ratio chart, if the virus reproduces in and ruptures half your lung cells, you are going to be really sick, but maybe you can at least still breath. But infecting 92% of your lung cells? Even oxygen in an ICU ward may not save you. Now the numbers in the chart are averages, but I think this would explain the extreme measures being taken in China.
Why am I, we, left to guess at this stuff? My preferred auto mechanic is better at sharing his trade knowledge than the medical profession. Perhaps he is not as politically motivated.
Hello Mr. Curious,
What is matters at this point is what is personally deemed an important & urgent need that will allow people and their loved ones to be ready for any eventuality, should this virus spread, as many are anticipating.
This site is about info sharing that informs risk management. In the heat of a perceived emergency there is less focus on debating potential sources or causes of the emergency than there is on surviving whatever is coming our way. Think of it this way: if the ground is shaking beneath your feet and the buildings swaying, do you want to take the time to debate the merits of fracking impacts on geology, or do you want to focus what you need to do to ensure near term survival?
There will be plenty of time and no doubt great debates much later on the post mortem of this latest global crisis. When that is, who knows. Depends on how long this is a threat to us.
There is never a shortage of good debates on this site. As SandPuppy noted, this is a diverse bunch with a lot of stalwarts contributing, leading and providing much 'food for thought about numerous topics. I have no doubt there are many in internet-land who think we are conspiracy theorists. And we all have the common problem of getting (most) of our loved ones to try to buy into that which we have come to understand and accept as being reality.
Stick around, learn things, and join discussions - but be prepared to back up what you say with solid arguments and facts. BS is picked up on pretty damn quick around here, and called out, but new contributors who can add something of value are always welcomed. I hope you are in the latter camp…
Jan
Wow, what an outstanding interview of Dr. Francis Boyle. His commentary about the WHO and CDC is devastating. He pulls no punches that this bug is from the BSL-4 lab in Wuhan, and that China, the US, the WHO and CDC know the story, and are lying. He gives practical advice about how much distance to maintain to prevent contamination, and other great insights.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/creator-bioweapons-act-says-coronavirus-biological-warfare-weapon
https://6abc.com/health/100-princeton-students-in-self-isolation-amid-coronavirus-scare/5901137/
That ought to stop it dead in its tracks. /s
Two confirmed cases in QLD Australia, arriving on a Tigerair flight.
First news article to declare the confirmations stated, “Tigerair has confirmed the aircraft the Chinese tourists were travelling on made 13 more flights before the plane underwent rigorous steam cleaning as a result of the man’s positive test.”
More recent news articles are stating, "Tigerair said the plane was taken out of service as a “precautionary measure” for extra cleaning. It had flown around Australia since Monday to destinations including Cairns, Brisbane, the Gold Coast, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth. Queensland Chief Medical Officer Jeannette Young said people shouldn’t be alarmed if they had been on the plane.
“The danger is going to be absolutely minimal,” Dr Young said. “I can’t say it’s zero because we don’t have that full information. When you cough or sneeze — and this man was symptomatic on the plane — you can cough or sneeze the virus particles … and they land on surfaces. Usually they dry out very quickly and are no problem. Coronaviruses don’t usually survive on surfaces for long but we don’t know with this virus that’s why I say be cautious and wash your hands regularly. But if they develop respiratory symptoms in the next 14 days mention to your healthcare provider you were on one of those planes.”
I’m thinking the answer to your question is…No, the planes are not being cleaned after each flight.
that not every illness is related to this Corona virus strain. The video shows an obviously excited person fall over and have a seizure…possibly epilepsy? Reports have indicated that the Corona virus symptoms are generally making people quite unwell leading into the respiratory issues and low blood pressure and in those cases it wouldn’t be unusual for someone to pass out as part of the bodies attempt to deal with the low blood pressure/low oxygen levels.