South Dakota had not had any confirmed cases until today. Governor Kristi November has announced there are now 5 confirmed cases, and one death, in South Dakota attributed to COVID-19. https://www.dakotanewsnow.com/content/news/First-two-cases-of-Coronavirus-confirmed-in-South-Dakota-568675541.html
I believe we are seeing what happens as testing kits become available.
In Tacoma - Pierce County, official coronavirus counts jumped from 7 on March 9 to 14 today, March 10. Meanwhile in Thurston County where I live, only 30 miles from Tacoma, here’s what the Public Health Department has posted today, March 10:
“Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that usually cause mild respiratory illnesses, such as the common cold. Some coronaviruses have caused more severe illness, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndromes (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).”
Then it goes on to give the standard advice about washing hands, etc. At least it acknowledges on a sidebar that “The current risk for Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Washington State is increasing. With new cases of COVID-19 being identified in other counties, this suggests the illness is spreading. As we and other pubic health departments continue to test people, we expect to see more confirmed cases of COVID-19.” I wish that Thurston County was not leading with a sentence describing c-viruses as causing usually “mild respiratory” symptoms since there is a pretty unbelievable amount of disinformation flying around on social media minimizing the risk.
In contrast, the King County Health Dept (Seattle) leads with:
“We are taking proactive steps to protect the health of our community be making recommendations that are meant to slow the spread of novel coronavirus (2019) and reduce the number of people infected. We understand these actions will have a tremendous impact on the lives of people in our community. Public Health is making these recommendations in consultation with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) based on the best information we have to protect the public’s health. This is a critical moment in the growing outbreak of COVID-19 in King County when such measures can potentially impact the spread of the disease.”
Hello, Thurston County, we are only 60 miles away! Heard of Italy?? That said, I’m sure glad I don’t work for a public health agency right now, talk about stress.
yeah tina, you noticed too? I would rather take the proactive side… rather than its nothing side… do nothing - nothing to see here. until its too late…
See http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n11.shtml
I am going to have my functional doctor stockpile some for me. I used get IV C 75 grams regularly to fight off a hospital infection. Only share with loved ones as C supply is not very elastic.
Covid19
Joe Rogan Experience #1439 - Michael Osterholm https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&feature=youtu.be
Thanks again for the great info.
I have physically prepped, but just realized I am not as emotionally ready as I thought. My husband has stage 4 cancer and I have kept a very stiff upper lip. But, for whatever reason, I watched a video on a special needs dog and am now crying. The next few weeks are really gonna suck.
I live in Switzerland and the Swiss government just held a press conference with following major points:
- they only test patients that are old or have comorbidities
- quarantine is reduced to 5 days of home-quarantine and is not mandatory!
- no school closures (they think it will impact the older generations, because in that case they will look after their grandchildren)
- border to Italy remains open, they only recommend people not to enter
- no more contact tracing, since it seems to be to complicated
- masks are only for the healthcare system and useless for the general population
Concerning the balancing act Switzerland really only tries to save the economy and will not stop the pandemic nor the hospital system. Also they communicate to the population that for the younger population the symptoms are like a mild flu.
It seems like the authorities already gave up on containing the Covid-19 disease.
Switzerland will be hit really hard from this, no productivity here. The virus will be able to spread really well here with tons of misinformation.
So from now on the official numbers coming out of Switzerland aren’t going to be representative anymore, since they simple won’t test the cases with mild symptoms anymore!
No contact tracing! No proper quarantine! No transparent information!
It’s really sad to see a country that would be in a really good position to contain this disease, do nothing and let the people suffer in the future…
Interesting data presented in this video related to Zinc impact on Covid 19 using Chloroquine as transporter to allow zinc to move into the cell space disrupting replication of the virus in the cell culture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M
I’m not at all sure that this won’t turn out to be the best and most humane response.
Pretty much all the literature agrees that there is nothing you can do to prevent an epidemic running its course. 1-1/R0 as a fraction of the population must get the disease in order for herd immunity to prevent further spread - so this many people are going to get the disease no matter what.
The only question is whether it is worth all the enormous effort and cost to spread the epidemic out over a longer time period. The benefit of this is that (hopefully) hospitals are not overwhelmed and therefore fewer peope die directly from the disease. The cost is of course that the damage to the economy also results in deaths and suffering.
I have not seen a good economic study showing at what CFR the large scale interventions result in a net benefit to society, but have seen unsupported references to 2% being the trigger for implementing such measures.
If the 2% number is right, and I am correct that CFR is in fact well below this number, then I suspect that what Switzerland is doing may well be the best thing for its citizens.
Rebel
I’m part of senior staff in a small company located in the northeast. The HQ is located in close proximity to the recent deployment of National Guard…things are starting to lock up. Both in movement and mental state. A good percentage of my directs are struggling with the reality of the situation…Normalcy bias meet Cognitive dissonance…
Several are coming ‘out of the closet’ regarding their suspicions of what is driving this. One in particular has connections inside a large medical testing company. It was stated that the virus is man-made and targeted and will evolve for ‘a few months’. I have a high confidence level in this source.
It should be interesting as this unfolds particularly regarding the economic and political effects in this election year. Much more to be said, but best wait for the next steps to take place.
stefano890
It’s really sad to see a country that would be in a really good position to contain this disease, do nothing and let the people suffer in the future…rebel
If the 2% number is right, and I am correct that CFR is in fact well below this number, then I suspect that what Switzerland is doing may well be the best thing for its citizens.Don’t want my life or my families to hinge on “may well be”. If all governments were held accountable for their decisions, their decisions would be radically different. Just think, if they were held accountable for peoples LIVES those in change would be damed sure they were making a good decisions. Oops wrong decision and lots of people died, thats a crime against humanity, - it’s life in prison for you.
Several are coming ‘out of the closet’ regarding their suspicions of what is driving this. One in particular has connections inside a large medical testing company. It was stated that the virus is man-made and targeted and will evolve for ‘a few months’. I have a high confidence level in this source.Perhaps that’s why Trump said the virus will just “disappear”. I thought that was a strange thing to say, until now. Question is evolve how?
Just yesterday, John Hopkins changed how their data source was structured, so if you copied this spreadsheet, you’ll need to update it.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FXVgNrTbECcO8X4-hFXhJuqgE5sl-7ddU-IO2ciXCdU/edit#gid=1157182735
Also, keep in mind that they added all the states, so for the next 12 hours or so, it will look like, say, WA added hundreds of new cases. This will resolve, once the new data updates. This sheet updates automatically at around 5pm PDT.
Also, if you’re curious, here’s a chart, if the US follows Italy’s unpreparedness:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQu7-qe5kJMnYo46QGvgCs6-B7qNCj82r5xuTypjz2Fp5EOZoKrcA4FYq56cbSbGh-ywXhjaxqPFwYS/pubchart?oid=1749235104&format=image
Stefano, thank’s for the update. I hope you folks weather this thing well. I’ve only limited travel out of the US but I was lucky enough to go to Switzerland for a couple weeks a few years ago.
You are blessed with a beautiful country and some of the most engaging and nice people you could hope to meet. I wish you well.
Will
I received a call from my brother in So florida, Everyone is sick ( no flu there currently ) And not one is being tested… The criteria is still must have traveled to place of outbreaks
So , I found this chart:
Note: the age and travel history… Unless you are over 60 and have traveled - its impossible to have these disease according to florida.
Don’t want my life or my families to hinge on “may well be”.
Well nor do I. But there is no alternative. The virus exists. We can choose two paths: either large scale interventions to slow the disease, or allowing the disease to spread and get the epidemic over with as soon as possible. Both paths have a cost, and we do not know the cost of either path for certain. The CFR is a useful data point which might help us determine the cost of each path (although such a calculation would also be merely an estimate), but that number is not certain either.
So - sadly - both courses will result in some level of suffering, and there is no way to know for certain which will lead to the greater suffering. I am just pointing out that if the CFR is significantly lower than current estimates then it may well be that adopting the Swiss approach might actually be better than the Chinese/Italian approach. No I cannot know this for certain. But nor can anyone know that the Italian approach will result in less suffering either. We can merely make our choice based on the best and most sensible interpretation of the information available and then hope we made the right one.
If all governments were held accountable for their decisions, their decisions would be radically different.
And if we were all immortal we wouldn’t die. Governments will almost never be held accountable for their decisions. This is the eternal problem with all governments. They hold power and they become corrupt. If our government were run by angels then perhaps things would be better but it’s not, and nor will it ever be. At best people in government are no more or less moral or ethical than those outside; personally I suspect they are rather less moral. And - worse - the level of corruption in government is not stable; it degenerates over time. The more power government obtains for itself, the more attractive it becomes for unscrupulous people to seek to take control of it, and the more corrupt it becomes, and the more power it seeks. Until finally it becomes so venal and corrupt that not only can it not hide its criminality, but the cost to the rest of society becomes so large that the people rise up in rebellion. And if you’re extraordinarily lucky you end up with something better for a brief period.
All that said, while it may well be that some governments will make a corrupt and self serving-decision regarding this virus, it is also true that a government attempting to genuinely make a good decision in the best interests of its people is still faced with undertainty about what the best course actually is. And remember that the Swiss government is less corrupt than most, although no government is ever entirely free of corruption. So - while it is possible that the Swiss government has made a corrupt decision which it knows is not in the best interest of its people (and therefore punishment would be appropriate), my point is that it may have genuinely tried to make the best decision for its people.
Just think, if they were held accountable for peoples LIVES those in change would be damed sure they were making a good decisions.
If there were a mechanism to hold them fully accountable then - yes - they would likely try do a better job of making decisions that they thought were in the best interest of everyone - rather than making corrupt decisions in their own personal interest.
But that wouldn’t necessarily help them in this case where I think it is genuinely difficult to know what the best decision actually is.
Oops wrong decision and lots of people died, thats a crime against humanity, – it’s life in prison for you.
Fair enough for a corrupt decision, but what about if our hypothetical decision maker was genuinely trying to do the right thing, but made a mistake…?
Chris has clearly come down on the side of massive interventions / slow the spread at almost any cost. But he clearly believes that CFR is high (>2%) and perhaps that an effective virus can be made available.
If you believe that CFR is much lower (<0.5%) and that an effective and safe vaccine is unlikely to be developed within 12-18 months, then it is very possible - perhaps highly likely - that the Swiss approach will result in less suffering in total.
I’m glad I don’t have to make the decision (although I doubt the people actually making it are going to make a better one than I would - and they may well even make a corrupt decision - which I hope I wouldn’t).
But stefan is stuck with the decision that has been made. It might be comforting for him to understand that it might actually be the best decision so that he does not have to contend with frustration and anger at the same time as he may also have to contend with sickness and suffering.
World Health Organization (WHO)
@WHO
?
Granny
My sleepy country town, Ashalnd Virginia has it’s 1st case.
https://www.nbc12.com/2020/03/11/st-coronavirus-case-reported-central-virginia-bringing-state-total-gov-northam-expects-see-number-increase/
I have been prepping and keeping a light jovial attitude. Not anymore.
LIVE: WHO press briefing:
“PANDEMIC”
But not the time for countries to move to mitigation
Must still try to suppress transmission and continue with containment efforts
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/