Late yesterday, the US officially declared coronavirus a “national health emergency”.
Some are starting to claim that it’s “too late” to do anything to stop the spread of coronavirus.
Is it?
Well, even if it's too late to stop it, we may still be able to slow the spread substantially.
The latest numbers from China may be offering our first hope of that. At ~12,000, they are our first sign the virus may no longer be spreading at a geometric rate.
China’s quarantine efforts may be starting to pay off. (Or, we may just be getting bad data. It’s simply too early to tell.)
Yes, it’s important to prepare for coronavirus to arrive in your community. That’s just prudent given what we know right now.
But don’t lose hope. We all have a role to play in limiting the damage this outbreak can cause.
The whole response to this by American public health officials has been incredibly frustrating for me to watch. The CDC (and state health departments) have been planning for pandemic influenza for 15-20 years! There are plans that, in theory, would just need to be pulled off the shelf, dusted off, and enacted. I’m not sure if that’s going on behind the scenes, but the lack of public communication on this matter is just fueling increased speculation, etc.
That said, I think there’s very good reason why there has not been good communication about this: namely, it is realized that this is actually a more serious pandemic potential than any previous plan has taken into account. The most recent MMWR which details public planning has a chart to define severity of the pandemic (p 29 - I tried to insert the figure, but not convinced it would be readable). Among many other metrics, the most extreme scenario is projected to have an R0 of 1.8, case fatality rate of >1%, and a case-hospitalization rate of >7%. While I believe we can all see how the the data presented here can be put into that context, even the stupid CNN calculations of CFR of 2% is DOUBLE the threshold.
Recommended actions in this case include: recommending closure of schools, social distancing, possibly cancelling/postponing mass gatherings. (p 32) At a minimum, sensible communication about all of this could focus on that piece.
I’ve been trying to get my family and friends to take this seriously. I fear they would completely shut down if presented with any of the information presented on this site. So, I’ve chosen this as the frame of reference (oh, look, it’s from an organization you trust, so you should at least be prepared for these previously-planned-for scenarios). And I’m having spotty luck at best. So - good luck.
I will look into this more, but the video makes a big deal out of the fact that WBC counts are lowered with this coronavirus, but viruses often cause leukopenia (low WBC counts). However, they cause low neutrophils and higher lymphocytes, especially over time, while I seem to remember reading that what was especially noticeable were the low lymphocytes for coronavirus patients, which would make it a bit more like an HIV.
One of a very few US politician understanding what the world is facing. He also implied it could be man made. The video was made two days ago so he was ahead of the game.
I encourage everyone to watch at least the Highlights Reel from the Event 201 pandemic simulation website. Yesterday I watched hours 1 and 2, and now understand the conundrum facing public health. Disrupting the economy would also cause incalculable suffering (though I get that it will be disrupted either way). But at the moment we still have the hope that mortality rate will be low, and severe illness will be low in the 1st world, that supply networks can be maintained.
While if we were all prepared for a downturn (self sufficient in terms of energy, medication, food and water for 1 year), it could conceivably be better to all shelter in place, actually since most aren’t, stopping the economy cold to prevent transmission would have worse consequences (they make a pretty good case for that, you be the judge). For example, it would interrupt supply chains that make our sanitation, water treatment, energy generation, food growing and distribution, medical care (more than half of Americans on a chronic medication, some can’t go without for even 1 week without getting very sick) - basically there would be a lot of death and suffering. And though some of the commerce is useless (think plastic toys of all sorts) it represents jobs for many people the way we’ve structured our society.
What it looks like we have is a virus that can be transmitted before you show symptoms, during often mild symptoms, and after you recover. And you can possibly get it over and over again. So we can’t suspend all activities indefinitely on that basis. The analogy for me is how we use our cars. Of course we know that there’s a chance we get killed leaving our driveway, but we still prefer life with a car (or a bike, you get my point). Or how we choose to go hiking in Colorado for example - yes there’s a chance you’ll get attacked by a mountain lion, but most choose to go hiking anyways.I reserve the right to change my mind as more info comes in, of course.
The global economy have been disrupted. Global supply chain broken. Dead and sick people don’t go back to work. No economy if your citizens are dead. That’s the realization of china.
Most things these days run in a mostly optimal fashion.To this end, Supply chains are run on a just in time basis. Additionally, Hospitals try to run such that the averagenumbers of patients are very close to the capacity of beds that they have.An empty bed makes no money & it costs a lot to maintain.The same thing goes with the number of healthcare workers employed by hospitals.Any increase above the average number of patients, such as a bad flu season, can put quite a bit of stress on a hospital.
Also, so many things come from China that I am not sure most people are aware of.A very large number of pharmaceutical medications, including antibiotics, come from China.A disruption in those supply chains is likely to cause a severe impact to our entire healthcare system.If you think a 3% mortality rate is high from Coronavirus, then just wait until you see the mortality rate go up without many of these medications.
I could be wrong, but I think most people have no idea how much the world would be affected if the Chinese economy came to a standstill (looks like that’s what’s happening now).Supply chains on all sorts of items would likely be disrupted on all sorts of unimaginable things.Ford in Detroit would not be able to “make” cars because they don’t make the parts.The parts come from China.Most electronic parts probably come from China. Etc., etc.For you business people, I’m sure you have had meetings already addressing supply chain concerns.
The virus may or may not directly affect the health of Americans & people from non-China countries, but I personally don’t see how the world is not going to be deeply affected in so many unimaginable ways.Our world lacks resilience in so many different ways.
Shock and awe Chinese style. Have labs that create new viruses and they occasionally leak like they have in the past. Create fear to keep the masses timid. Chinese have set standard for social credit scores to control society, see easy peasy. No accountability and more top down authority. More control, more regs, more vaccines, more sickness, look around folks, look at people around you and see how many medication they are on and how little they can do. Just because our lifespan is about the same, we are not healthier and many can do just a fraction of what those could do before them. I personally believe all this research into biochemistry is used against us, not for us. Perfect example is anthrax, created in lab is potent bio-terror weapon. Don’t let the likes of Bill and Linda Gate and their front foundations, they are nothing but a front the eugenic societies since the turn of the century. Guess who has a patent on a corona virus, yep the Gates, isn’t that special. I’m sure not the one in the pandemic but why are these patents needed in the first p;ace. Talk about predictive programming, John Hopkins pandemic exercise in Oct 2019 and now this, just a coincidence I’m sure. Funded by who? http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/newsroom/center-news/2020-01-24-Statement-of-Clarification-Event201.html
sample size is only eight patients. Needs larger sample size to give it credibility. Maybe could be front running this story. Maybe virus is know to have a higher mortality rate among Asians due to it’s make up in the lab, don’t know. I’m in the boat, don’t trust the Chinese, ever.
We have been wondering why so few serious complications or deaths outside China. It seems so much more severe there. This provides answers why.
It means this will be an Asian pandemic rather than worldwide disaster. Still serious - but less than was feared.
