What about the possibility of using the fish aquarium chloroquinine phosphate if you cannot access it from your doctor as things get worse?
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-amazon-suspends-all-non-essential-shipments-to-warehouses-2020-3
You wonder how many more “wounds” of this nature the “patient” can sustain before it expires.
About a month back there was some posts about successfully using transfusions from recovered patients to cure acute cases.
I received this note from an associate this morning…
“My wife works with an epidemiologist at Harvard who told her this morning they are making immunoglobin from recovered patients in China and are starting to ship to the US. This should cure acute cases and hopefully halt the panic and death rates. Probably within a month. Hope they’re right.”
Does anybody have any additional information on transfusions?
I’m downloading data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide
Just noticed for today they showed a spike in cases from 25 up to 110. They have been in the 20’s since March 10th and all of a sudden it spikes to 110 on the past report. I know this seems like a very small number , however, the trend may be something to watch in the days ahead.
| 3/8/2020 | 46 |
| 3/9/2020 | 45 |
| 3/10/2020 | 20 |
| 3/11/2020 | 29 |
| 3/12/2020 | 24 |
| 3/13/2020 | 22 |
| 3/14/2020 | 19 |
| 3/15/2020 | 22 |
| 3/16/2020 | 25 |
| 3/17/2020 | 110 |
This is an old technique, used to combat pathogens in those, whose systems are already too degraded to function as they should. One just hopes the plasma infusion contains the correctly targeted antibodies and these supplied antibodies are not “old and tired.”
Problems include the amount of plasma used, or required, to be effective…and mixing the sources of the plasma, which might mean mixing the targeting of the antibodies provided. Hopefully, the supplied antibodies will not subject the patient to ADE, but such critically ill patients will most likely not survive in any case.
There is a problem of supply to demand, which increases the more such plasma is used for each patient. How many liters are needed to cure a very sick person? One, three, fifty?
One will see spikes as China orders its workers out of isolation and back to work, thinking a particular area is safe enough to put people back to work. However, just as soon as the workers come out of isolation, within a week, the pathogen again explodes into the work force…causing the Chinese to send them back into isolation.
Each time China tests the waters…expect spikes.
They’re different. The Chinese researchers were investigating chloroquinine phosphate, and so is Prof Raoult.
I am beginning to think people shall need to remain in isolation for a very long time, or, until EVERYONE is equipped with PPE and wears it…at all times they are in public places.
We may need to establish a totally new process of food safety and delivery, which includes bulk radiation and HV-C sterilization techniques. New businesses dedicated to sterile food packaging and delivery…fashionable PPE…UV-C “baths” in public places…public toilets with timed HV-C radiation before its next user…and the like.
We may be forced to stay in some sort of isolation until the pathogen mutates away from being a threat. Years?
Read somewhere today, I can’t find it now, that a couple of cities in Hubei had relaxed the quarantine only to reimplement it a day later. If so, that is not encouraging.
I am in complete agreement with social distancing. I have problems with the concept of “lockdown”. A checkpoint to go visit my daughter in her own quarantine in a town 100 miles away does not seem logical. If friends in quarantine for a week want to come over to my house while I have been in quarantine for a week–is that irresponsible? Our county announced its first case 1 hour ago. I decided a month ago that more than one case in my city/county would necessitate closing my dental practice. Single person visits with common sense protections should be sufficient to slow the progress of disease. If it is not, then we will just have to see who survives it because as soon as we quit isolating, the disease spread will resume. And we are not all going to sit in our room until nobody has the disease.
Can I go to a park?
“Revelers celebrate St. Patrick’s Day Saturday, March 14, 2020, during an unofficial gathering at Tracey’s Original Irish Channel Bar in New Orleans. (Scott Threlkeld/The Advocate via AP)”
Want to guess how many of those people were wearing masks or practicing social distancing?
In New Orleans and Chicago, people clad in green for St. Patrick’s Day packed bars and spilled onto crowded sidewalks on Saturday even after the cities canceled their parades. “I’m not about to put my life on hold because this is going around,” Kyle Thomas told the Chicago Sun-Times. Thomas, a nurse from Colorado, said he had flown to Chicago to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day with friends and thought people might be ”overreacting.” In New Orleans, Syd Knight, 86, celebrated despite the public health warnings and the higher risk she faced because of her age. “The Lord will take care of us all,” Knight told The Times-Picayune-New Orleans Advocate. Oklahoma’s governor tweeted a picture of himself and his children at a crowded metro restaurant Saturday night. In the since-deleted tweet, Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt wrote: “Eating with my kids and all my fellow Oklahomans at the @CollectiveOKC. It’s packed tonight!” “The governor will continue to take his family out to dinner and to the grocery store without living in fear, and encourages Oklahomans to do the same,” Charlie Hannema, a spokesman for the governor, said in an email.
I’m trying to see if I can make a model that predicts how many cases we could expect every day/ week. Even if it is very approximate, being able to say that in x scenario we could expect y number of new cases per day gives some handle of what a community can expect in case load.
I think there are different aspects that will change the form of the curve:
- Population (local data)
- Attack rate (have heard 40-80% of population, number of people would be the surface under the bell curve)
- R0 (have read many things; https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext gives 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86), this would be very dependent on context: self-isolation, rural area, use of protection materials, social habits, possibly general health (habits) of population will probably change this. Linked to this (and incubation period) https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext says that epidemic doubling time is 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1)
- Incubation period https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported gives 5.1 days
I am beginning to think people shall need to remain in isolation for a very long time, or, until EVERYONE is equipped with PPE and wears it…at all times they are in public places.Nah, we will get herd immunity in 2-3 years. Its just how big of a price will we pay to get it. 2 million, 5 million, 10 million, 50 million? Once we do, it will just be another Fall flu that people get and some people die. We're fine with 50-100K dying from simple influenza now. We'll be fine with the same for Covid19. Though I for one would like to be one of the 20-30% without herd immunity who never gets it.
“We may be forced to stay in some sort of isolation until the pathogen mutates away from being a threat. Years?”For us introverts thats a dream come true. But a nightmare for extroverts and the young party crowd.
But they are similar right? I’m on Plaquenil. I was hoping that would be a benefit to me.
Hydroxychloroquine has largely replaced chloroquine in the United States, except among patients who travel to areas endemic with malaria. Although the mechanisms of the two agents are presumed to be the same, many reports suggest that chloroquine is more toxic to the retina than hydroxychloroquine
Scroll up to post #17
"Anecdotal Evidence of China’s Troubles
If you’re with the 20-30% that hasn’t been infected, is it because you didn’t get in contact with the infection, or is it because your bodies defenses are able to avoid infection? Usually there are people who are just able to resist infection. Same conditions, same preventative measures; I have had malaria 4+ times, my wife never. Can be luck, but there are many cases like that. I have certainly been in contact with high doses of cholera, never had it though…
The difference between the two is a life spent in isolation and behind protective gear in a risky period, or being able to go about without having any issues… Until you encounter a serotype that gets through. But that’s the same for any person