[embed]https://twitter.com/amateurinv/status/1239982310625173509[/embed]Here is a quick rundown of Hospital Beds to State Population based on Ratios. For every 750 persons in Vermont, there is one hospital bed. Meanwhile, for every 300 people in Mississippi, there is 1 bed.
Hi Dave,
Thanks a lot for your explanation, great. My math is probably intermediate, not fluent, and I’d prefer to work in Excel as I can more easily tweak things without having to recalculate everything (I’m not familiar with specific math programs). I’ll have something to fiddle around with. I’d expect (gut feeling, not scientific) that the exponential function is correct up to possibly 25% of total expected cases, then a counter exponential function would start reducing the number of cases. Mirroring this on the other side would possibly give a plausible curve. No clue if this has any value, but will tinker a bit with this and get back if something interesting comes up.
Interesting times 
Directly from the article reflected in the post
“Of that, $500 billion would go directly towards checks for Americans.” “I predict the eventual emergence of a new and powerful third political party, The Everything for Everyone Party. They will give everyone everything they want until the whole shebang just explodes (or implodes as it may)This sounds cynical and does not show compassion for those who are frightened and struggling.
Forgive me for saying this but you often seem to find minimal excuse for taking offense. If I’m wrong here, I stand corrected.There you go again with the - YOU. Thanks to Brene Brown I now get it. You see my statement was that I interpreted your statement as cynical which you could have disagreed with. Instead of using “YOU “ find minimal excuse for taking offense. Which is an attack on my character designed to make me feel shame and diminish me. But it didn’t. Thank you Brene Brown, audio book, Rising Strong. You misunderstand, I am not taking offense, I am stating an alternate viewpoint! And that viewpoint is sometimes under represented here which tries to bring compassion and empathy to the forefront. Often the focus and discussion revolves around acquiring money. So pointing out that the action of helping people in my mind is quite opposite from “the Everything for Everyone party”. Are not alternate opinions a good thing? AKGrannyWGrit
You are on the front line of a war. It is understandable to be discouraged. I/we wish we could make the situation better for you.
Pandemics teach us lessons our society needs to learn. Hopefully, many people armed with cell phone cameras will document the failures of our bureaucratic, for profit corporations and sick care system.
My prayers are with you.
AKGranny
Note close proximity of participants, reporters about 1.5 feet apart, no one is wearing masks or respirators.
Some items of interest:
- Pence requesting construction companies to donate their N95 and higher respirators to health care facilities/personnel;
- cash directly to citizens, “not millionaires”, w/in 2 weeks, in addition to payroll tax relief;
- $10B from Treasury to Fed to guar A1-P1 commercial paper, to be able to provide liquidity and purchase up to $1T (not clear on this, i.e, $10B —>$1T in purchases, possible by leveraging? see at about the 15-minute mark in video);
- defer $300B in IRS payments for those who owe, up to $1M for individuals, up to $10M for corporations, for interest-free, penalty-free 90-day deferral (16-min. mark)
- legislation for fiscal stimulus plan including payments (e.g., to airlines, hotels, impacted industries), loan guarantees and “business interruption payments” to American workers;
- fast-food, restaurants pre-order, drive-through restaurants should be maintained and used;
- will keep ““markets”” open, may shorten hours, but will ensure Americans have access to their money in their 401K, banks, in stocks;
- federal gov’t may “supplement” efforts to increase hospital beds/temp facilities in NYC and maybe elsewhere;
- the President doesn’t believe there will be shortages of pharmaceutical supplies or raw materials from China as they have “every incentive” to produce them;
- re: concerns that coronavirus spread/impacts continue months ahead, President stated “we’re getting rid” of the virus, have as few deaths as possible, US has done a great job, once rid of the virus we (America/markets) are going to “pop back like nobody’s ever seen before” (28 min. mark);
- President has ordered “massive” numbers of ventilators, respirators, we have a “tremendous amount of equipment” but need more than other countries (e.g., Italy) because the US is bigger, “we’ve done really well, the states have done well…”, states can now order directly;
- state governors can request DoD support for field/“MASH” hospitals and/or assistance from Army Corps of Engineers to retrofit existing facilities for use as hospitals/medical facilities, discussions with governors from NY, CA, WA re: temporary facilities assistance;
- increased focus, removed barriers, increased benefits for telehealth via Medicare/Medicaid to reduce CV exposures for elderly and minimize burden on health care workers and facilities;
- CDC, public health labs have to-date reported out 31,878 Covid-2019 tests, clinical labs reported abut 27,000 tests or 8,200 were yesterday, no info from hospital labs yet (37-min. mark)
- drive-through labs expect to set up 47 of these in 12 states in next few days, shipping materials and equipment, deploying 140 “commission core officers” at these sites to assist with more expected;
- and more…
https://www.c-span.org/video/?470426-1/president-trump-urges-states-follow-coronavirus-guidelines
Thanks for the update Imcdel! We’ll certainly know more in the days to come. 'Glad that maintaining the health and safety of our military is being taken seriously.
What sort of PPE are you recommending for essential shopping, I do have to make a run to the Home depot, harbor freight , and grocery store ( I am stocked for about 6 mos maybe more - but feel risk is still lower now than later. ) … And still doing postal runs at mailbox annex for my business.
This type of planning and war gaming goes on all the time. Having contingency plans is what it’s all about. Being able to dust off a play book for the zombie apocalypse or an alien invasion is better than making it up as you go along.
The worry should be that despite having these plans things go badly, but then humans are involved and nobody is perfect.
With regard to “secret” meetings, there are rumors abound that COVID19 is a BIOWEAPON from the class 4 lab in Wuhan. I would expect there to be secret meetings with the intelligence services in regards to that.
In an encouraging turn, the vast majority of municipalities that constitute Milwaukee County have taken the following step:
“Health officials in 16 Milwaukee County municipalities, including the city of Milwaukee, have ordered bars and restaurants to close to help slow the spread of the coronavirus.”
“The executive order restricts food, liquor, beer and wine sales to carry-out and delivery only for all bars and restaurants in the 16 municipalities.”
I will miss enjoying a memorable meal at my favorite restaurantes in the ensuing month(s?) to come.
But for the sake of dramatically slowing the community spread while it is still in its nascent stage in SE Wisconsin and elsewhere in this nation, let’s please order out those missed dishes.
I feel those who prepared for the presently unfolding crisis should help those who could not because perhaps those who prepared were blessed in some manner with the appropriate mindset to do so. Let’s not loss our humanity as our present society increasingly mirrors past historical events of mass disruption.
I was a meal-on-wheels driver years ago between jobs.
Question to the forum:
Since I have a multiple respirators* and googles, should I reconsider becoming one again?
Unfortunately, I was likely one of few weekly visitors - or even the only one - to many of the elderly citizens on my route through the East side of Milwaukee and neighboring Shorewoo. Thus, this is reason for my concern for this vulnerable population during the times of coronavirus.
(Oh, I am a 40ish year old male currently transitioning to plant based food. Forks Over Knives is rather informative )
*1) 3M tekk Protection 6297 Mold and Lead Paint Removal Respirator 6297PA1
*2) 3M tekk Protection Mold and Lead Paint Removal Respirator 62093HA1
*3) 20 3M Cool Flow N95s 8511
*4) Honeywell North P100 Valved Disposable Respirator (two)
Source:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wisn.com/amp/article/milwaukee-part-of-dine-in-ban-for-10-cities-and-municipalities-in-milwaukee-county/31685914
If you’re with the 20-30% that hasn’t been infected, is it because you didn’t get in contact with the infection, or is it because your bodies defenses are able to avoid infection?My hope is I dodge the bullet until they get a vaccine honestly, or my naturally bubbly and winning personality so wins over Covid19 that it only gives me a minor case of it, lol.
I have only links to german sites, but they are saying that they have no ressources (personal etc) to test anymore. They say that is makes no diference because the treat only severe cases anyway. I think this is importand to know when seeing numbers from Germany:
https://www.wz.de/nrw/duesseldorf/coronavirus-duesseldorf-will-nicht-mehr-alle-verdachtsfaelle-testen_aid-49589647
https://www.wetterauer-zeitung.de/wetterau/friedberg-ort28695/coronavirus-wetteraukreis-testet-nicht-mehr-13601784.html
mai
To reinforce the points made above, the military is placing restrictions on its members for our own health, due to the close proximity we live/work in. “Force protection” if you will.
in Germany, we are now confined to a 20km radius (exceptions for commute to work/medical appts). Working from home is in effect unless you need to physically be present for a task. If you live on base you are confined to the base. Screening questions are asked at the gate every time you come on base. We are not all being tested, the test kit shortage is universal, only if you trip a screening question. On base stores are reasonably well stocked, the defense commissary agency runs its own logistics system parallel to local structures. All other restrictions mirror the restrictions imposed by the German government on its own citizens.
Demographically, the military is younger and generally more fit than the general population, so the hard part is getting people to care…
I still think he is doing a great job cannot help it. He is telling the truth. More than many.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQEN0F07xIY
Cases: over 1700
Peak cases: estimated to be in 45 days
Hospital bed capacity: around 52000 (80 percent filled today)
Range of beds needed at peak: 55000 to 110000 (remember the 52k are 80 percent full)
They are talking about building new hospitals. We will need 10’s of thousands of new beds in May. Our hospitalization rate is around 20 percent (of people testing positive). Anyone who questions the need to mitigate after seeing these numbers is deluded. Even with everyone SIP as much as possible (and people are really doing it here, streets are quiet and roads are an easy drive) we have these numbers in the future to look forward to…they are asking nursing students, medical students and retired docs and nurses to come out and prepare to help.
I’ve gotten emails like that for the last week from my banks, my doctor, my veterinarian, energy company and a few others.
My hope is I dodge the bullet until they get a vaccine honestly, or my naturally bubbly and winning personality so wins over Covid19 that it only gives me a minor case of it, lol.Alternative, hang around Chuck Norris, he can kick any butt out there...
Anybody know who to call to help an American get out of a country when there’s a lockdown and all flights are cancelled? My daughter is up in the Andes not due to come home for another week when out of the blue Bolivia’s case load went boom and the government announced a total lockdown with the airport to close on Thursday. Is there a government agency who can help you get home? When she went two weeks ago Bolivia was boasting it had zero cases
This is accurate, and speaks to what I experienced at my local San Diego hospital when I went for testing last week. I returned from Europe and a week later came down with severe bronchitis/pneumonia. I wrote about my attempt to get tested in the “Disruptions” post. It was ridiculous. The hospital were triaging those of us who were sick, in our cars, in front of, and blocking the Ambulance bay of the hospital. We were also blocking the exit lane out of the hospital parking lot. There was one triage nurse, and a P.A. for a long line of cars. It took them two hours to get to me, even though I was at the front of the line and blocking other cars. They said they often have a five hour wait in the line.
Both the nurse and the P.A. who examined me had no eye protection. The nurse had a simple paper mask, which she pulled down to talk to me, the P.A. an N95 mask. I was coughing violently the entire time. The nurse handed me a pen to sign a document, and then put it back on her clip board. She didn’t have me use a tissue or gloves when I used the pen.
They refused to test me because they said I’d been sick too long and no longer shedding enough virus to test. Yet when I looked at the notes later I realized the nurse had written the wrong dates of my symptom onset, so I was sick for a much more recent time, than they understood. I called my Primary doctor to try to correct the record and see if I should self isolate and they said they can’t tell anyone whether to self isolate or not and although they disagreed with the reasoning not to test me, the P.A. had already “made the call” and they wouldn’t do anything further.
Hello from Pennsylvania. Although I’ve followed PP for quite awhile, this is my first time to post. I am retired from a non profit family center; my husband retired from local government. No cases in our county have been reported yet. Our adult children are living in other states and seem ok. Each of us are sheltering, each in place.
I read this article a few months ago. Her reporting and style of writing/story telling stuck with me. Re-reading it in light of our global plight, “What I learned in avalanche school” could parallel some things I have learned here on PP and during my preparations and conversations with friends and family. I hope I copied and pasted it successfully. You may need to google it if not. I think and feel it’s worth the read.
The work and thoughtfulness of Adam and Chris have been on my radar for some time. I am thankful for their and for posters’ insights and suggestions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/31/magazine/avalanche-school-heidi-julavits.html?referringSource=articleShare
Sand Puppy, you’re so right. While I am extremely thankful not to be working in acute care any more, my heart goes out to the hundreds of nurses I’ve precepted and mentored in my 50+ years of nursing. There’s a pain in my heart to know we’re going to lose some of them. As I described it to our CEO a few weeks ago, “I feel like I’m standing in snow up past my knees, seeing the avalanche coming and not able to do anything about it.”
I’m not looking forward to what I expect will happen in the small mountain community where I live and the nearby slightly larger community where I am the nurse manager of a federally qualified health center (FQHC). For those of you who aren’t familiar with the acronym, FQHCs were created back in the 60s to serve the most vulnerable populations across the US. We have over 40% seniors in our population, many patients who have multiple medical problems and many others who have mental health issues as well. And Ma Nature is apparently not very happy with us because she just dumped over a foot of snow and we had to close the clinic for today and maybe tomorrow.
We’re trying to figure out how to help our elders shelter in place now that they are snowbound as well as homebound. We’re running longer hours at the food closet, but these people can’t get to us now. Transportation is always an issue in our area - we don’t have buses, taxis, trains or any sort of public system. We need to make sure our patients have meds, food, heat - the logistics boggle the mind. We have people who live in cabins without heat and even a few in tents - at 3,500 feet in elevation. At least one family I know hauls their water from a stream in buckets.
Luckily I have always been of the “be prepared” mindset and am a frequent visitor to PP, so I was able to get the conversation going early (to the point, I’m sure, some folks wished I would shut up about it, already!). I got the triage nurses checking for possible COVID-19 symptoms early, we revised our triage tool to make sure we answered all the right questions and every morning - and now sometimes at noon - the whole clinic huddles for updates, changes and planning. We stocked up on extra medications for our dispensing closet and made sure the oxygen tanks are all full. Everybody is doing extra cleaning before, during and after the workday.
It’s a constant struggle. Do you insist staff wear masks all the time and use up valuable PPE? If not, how do we protect ourselves and our patients? How can we do telehealth or phone calls instead of face-to-face visits and how do we get paid (like most FQHCs, we run on a very tight budget)? Like hospitals, we are closely regulated - if we don’t color within the lines, they can shut us down. But difficult as our situation is, I can just barely imagine what it’s like in acute care - it’s more than 15 years since I was a director of nursing.
Every time I talk to a patient, I have a tiny voice in the back of my mind: “Some won’t survive - will it be you I mourn?” On the other hand, at 71 I’m the oldest staff member, so maybe it’s me they’ll be mourning. It’s the hand we’re dealt - gotta play it with fingers crossed.
Interesting piece, good read
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/tucker-carlson-on-how-he-brought-coronavirus-message-to-mar-a-lago