Coronavirus: The Calm Before The Storm?

What a terrible situation for the brave medical workers in China, being silenced when trying to save lives

If the projections are right we are looking at a peak of 60% global infection. And with current fatality rates and assuming no healthcare system gets over run we would be looking at about 100,000,000 dead

In Mongolia the gov’t here is still saying ‘no confirmed cases’. This despite many Mongolians (in the low hundreds at least) brought in from China and being monitored in quarantine. And yet somehow NONE of these have been positive for infection, nor any of the handful of people quarantined after medical examination showed they were suspected candidates? Given how easily it has spread in other places, it seems a low probability.
I get why the Mongolian gov’t might be lying… there have been a couple ‘scares’ already where some people went into buying panics and cleared shelves in stores. These incidents didn’t last long and most grocery shelves were restocked in short order, but it did go to show how quickly things can shift. Possibly they’re also worried that if the truth gets out, the world will isolate Mongolia much like it did with China in the assumption the gov’t can’t contain it.
One thing that makes me more suspicious of the gov’t official story here is how they’re treating the cancellation of the Tsagaan Sar (Mongolian Lunar New Year) holiday. Normally the holiday involves families visiting other families over a several day period. Understandable how that could be a risk, and while unpopular I agree with cancelling it. But apparently the gov’t is also going to be closing the roads in/out of the capital and between some aimags (provinces) from 2/21-2/26 to make SURE people aren’t going to travel and celebrate with out-of-town friends & relatives. Maybe it’s an overabundance of caution, but maybe they just know more than they’re telling.

If covid19 starts putting stress on US institutions either directly through an epidemic here in the States or a financial - stock market melt down, it would be foolish of Iran and/or Russia, acting individually or in concert not to use the situation as a force multiplier to mount a cyber attack against our infrastructure and financial systems. We know that Iran has been devastated by our attacks on their economy and have sworn to retaliate if given the chance. If so, there will come a day when the ATMs shut down, the internet slows to a crawl due to massive denial of service attacks, and stock exchanges are hit hard.

Thanks for the update. Especially the diagnostic flowchart. Something to print out and save. You wouldn’t happen to have a copy you could post…perhaps a pdf?
Here's the direct link (Lancet Article) Maybe this image will be suffice?

The global infection rate outside is running at 13% average increase per day since Jan 29 which translates to the number of cases doubling ever 5.7 days.

I’ve seen articles over the last 5 years or so that 30 million +/- of American’s are on them. It’s probably double that. Everyone is so depressed about their lives…life is so hard in the USA, boo hoo. They even put kids on this garbage. That’s a real crime. A real motivation crusher.
Ah what’s the use, Mr. C?
Maybe everyone can learn to code.

In two days it will be my 8 year anniversary of withdrawing from psychiatric drugs (anti-depressant/anti-anxiety) after having been on them for 23 years. Part of my thinking, in addition to wanting to have my mind more fully and to be able to have the full range of human experience, was building emotional resiliency so that in a situation of economic collapse, that I would not have to face it while in withdrawal. I’ve done similarly with not taking stomach drugs (Zantac/ Priolosec) and have made the necessary dietary changes so that my stomach doesn’t hurt all the time. Change is possible, even for someone in the “morbidly obese” category! And before you dismiss what I have to say after reading those two words, like Chris says, getting our own house/selves in order puts us in a better position to help others when the time comes. I am currently writing a book, working title is: Over-Consumption Exposed: Building the Emotional Resiliency Necessary to End Obesity and Climate Change. There is actually a path forward for those addicted to psychiatric drugs, pizza, opiates, etc… and it involves building some skills we don’t often see modeled, which can take some time. Part of the huge disservice that is happening right now is that the lies are robbing people of the time needed to do that. Slow is MUCH easier than fast, I can say from personal experience with psychiatric drugs, but I imagine that’s true with any other substance. Much easier on both the mind and body. Best resource I’ve found for psychiatric drug withdrawal on the web is this website. I found it after I came off drugs myself, but it’s the most comprehensive source of information I have seen and there is a community of people there working on the same thing.

Truth pretty much known that NZ is a bolt hole for the .01%.
If one dug hard enough, one would likely find that getting in is closed to most.

Good one about the diagnostic picture and an eye opener. You have mentioned about chill and breathing difficulty.There are news about unusual deaths with this similar symptoms regardless age/gender.
The cruise ship incidents confirm keeping people in quarantine together is not going to work. For instance if the Hongkong passenger had not disembarked …unknown mishap.
From another cruise ship lots of super spreaders moved to different parts of the world.
Japan’s mentioning a silent outbreak is on the anvil and it has lost hopes on contact tracing.
Singapore’s PM mentioning the entire population to succumb through this virus infection.
I read about the zhong nanshan’s prediction about the virus peak.Please read as below:-
Latest developments on the novel coronavirus outbreak:
China’s senior medical adviser Zhong Nanshan said the coronavirus outbreak may peak soon, and may be over by April. He said the prediction was made based on mathematical modelling. Mr Zhong, 83, is known for combating the SARS crisis in China in 2003.
Also go through unusual covid-19 cases…Unpredictable incubation periods or unable to trace the origin of infection…
Unusual COVID-19 cases discovered in Henan, infection sources unknown, showing strong contagiosity.
Do these indicate long times of isolated confinement… ???

Learn what YOUR typical numbers are. Temperature fluctuates over 24 hours and varies between individuals. Ditto your normal respiratory rate (check heart rate while you’re about it too). Your normal O2 Sat may be somewhat off already. Work these values out now for your family and keep them handy.

We have a cruise booked for April, small 930 passengers to Northern EU (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Berlin. Should we go?? Cruise line says they are taking precautions!

I am a medical doctor as well, and want to agree with the other comments that 93% is a pretty worrisome oxygen saturation – for people at sea level. For high altitudes (I used to practice near Boulder Colorado), 90 or 91% might be the cut off, but of course that would have to be decided locally.
In terms of the temperature, I agree that their cutoff does not represent a fever, but what they’re doing there is telling you that if your temperature is any lower than that, that rules you out. A higher temperature keeps you in the game for having this virus.
Some of the antivirals they use are not available here in the US. And on the extreme left hand side of the chart, that they give you antibiotics even if you don’t have pneumonia… that’s something we tend not to recommend here, as other causes of the symptoms named up top (most bronchitis for example, most pharyngitis, laryngitis) would not respond to antibiotics and instead you may end up with massive resistance to these antibiotics going forward.
One thing I read in one of the journals is that having a positive swab for influenza does not completely rule out COVID–19. 6% of patients with influenza potentially also have COVID–19 in China.
One analysis I heard from a British epidemiologist is that the cases only appear to be falling in China because of their criteria for testing, which as he presented them, were different from the ones in the flow chart. The criteria included traveling from Hubei province, and so of course with travel being restricted, the cases were dropping. So I’ll have to retain some doubt that things are better there, although if they adopt these new guidelines for testing that won’t be an issue.
Finally, a word about what types of misinformation could cost lives: I would prefer that Chris not spend so much time defending himself and belaboring that point. The idea of the WHO is that disrupting the economy unnecessarily costs lives through social unrest and other societal mechanisms. It’s not just virus that can kill people. There are many countries around the world where mobs take to the streets very quickly and there is already much tension between religious groups and other factions and a spark there may cause many deaths. Also conceivably if people who were already very poor stayed home from work, causing malnutrition and starvation.
Another way misinformation could hurt is by causing people to do things that cause shortages of PPE for healthcare workers, that undermine people’s health, or by causing them to avoid seeking care when they should have. But I have not seen much of the latter on this site, and I’ve seen some posts discouraging hoarding.
I agree that the WHO is very much stuck between saying something that keeps people calm in case the virus does not wreak havoc, and being truthful so that people retain their confidence in the WHO.

Charles Hugh Smith had a new post out called “The Complacent Are Clueless” ( Indeed they are much to their peril. However, we really don’t want to migrate into a dystopian world so I am glad for life to go on as normal for as long as possible. Because once we cross from life as normal to life that is disintegrating there may be a mix of disease, famine, war and death. (Hmm sounds like the four horseman).
My nurse friend who told me the virus wasn’t airborne and masks are not really necessary believes what she has been told. She is retired and is taking care of her elderly relatives. I suggested my information was different from hers and she could research further if she was inclined. The reality is the truth would scare her and would make her job of caretaking harder. I planted a seed and if she, and everyone else wants to know the truth its out there for them to find, though difficult. Much like the music that was played by the band on the Titanic, the music gave the passengers comfort and hope, before the boat sank. Censoring the narrative will give the aware, and informed more time. I am no longer so sure softening the message is as evil as I once thought it was.

Asking if someone should do X, Y or Z will not help you.
Instead, consider educating yourself and ask yourself if (based on your newfound knowledge) it is important to you now?
Many of us can’t go hide in bunkers until it burns out. We make decisions about leaving the home every day.
If you should do anything, you should decide for yourself instead of asking someone else what to do. It’s your life.

I’m not sure I believe that at this time. In China they said that they use the serum from recovered people to help those who are fighting the infection. Therefore, there is something protective in the blood of people who have recovered. Of course I’m not sure for how long.
On the other hand, there is a report today that Dr. Liu Zhiming, director of Wuchang hospital has passed away from the virus. I imagine he might have received the serum from a recovered person… So maybe it’s not such a great treatment. The report also says that he was 51, very healthy, and did not expect to pass away from this infection. This makes me think that overwork, poor sleep, and just the grief of losing so many patients are very harmful in this situation.

My understanding is that normal arterial oxygen saturation percentage is between 95-98%. Therefore a percentage of 93% would low. Again, just my understanding, but this number is an important physiological parameter of the respiratory cycle. So it could easily say “this person is not getting enough oxygen- what’s going on? We need to find out.” My smartwatch actually measures that for me. I look at it daily. 97% currently. I’m glad to know how useful this information can be in this particular instance.

Hi Marilyn
Welcome. I understand your asking the question, people here have different information than our families back home.
A lot can happen between now and April. A couple of questions that could help you decide. How old are you and how healthy? Figure out based on the numbers what your risk is. What is the plan should someone get sick during the cruise, are you ready to be quarantined on the ship? Would you get a refund if you cancel? Are you daring and adventurous and willing to take risks?
Good luck. Hard decision.

I used to have a brilliant business coach, Brian Whetten, who had a technique for teaching decision-making. It is called “Yes, Yes, Hell No!” His ebook might be available on Amazon still.
Basically, he said first consult the “voice of reason.” In the cruise ship case, how many cruise ships are out there? Only 2 have had quarantine issues. Your chance of being on a ship with coronavirus might not be very high. On the other hand, one person outside China (was is in Japan, or Singapore?) got the virus after traveling to Hawaii… so it’s in many places already. What is the monetary cost of cancelling this cruise? What is the cost of a possible quarantine to you? And other questions you can answer with calculations and thinking.
Second, the “voice of intuition.” Check in with your gut feelings: imagine yourself setting off on the cruise, or deciding to stay home. How do you feel? Imagine yourself on the cruise, and someone next to you is coughing (someone certainly will). Will you be able to relax and enjoy yourself? That is something only you will know.
And finally, the “voice of fear” - it will either tell you to do it, in which case there’s no problem, or it will say “hell no!” - in the case of many decisions you have to make, if the other two voices are saying “yes,” the voice of fear is not an indicator to stop, because it just means that you are on your “growing edge.”
Good luck!!

GODDAMNIT i had posted a nice long post, then the site suddenly requires an extra captcha, now it’s gone.
Ah well. Suffering from Success.
In any case, i’ll get right to the gist of the last thing i found. I did more digging into where opioids are manufactured. Can’t really find much. EXCEPT that i did find that Americans use 99% of the worlds Hydrocodone supply. I’m sure it sounds familiar.
So i finally found where it’s made, and GUESS WHAT?

3B Scientific (Wuhan) Corp
PubChem SID: 375115975
Purchasable Chemical: 3B3-067226
Now there are german and US manufacturers too. But if the US uses up 99% of the supply, that means that the german and chinese manufacturer are *also* shipping all their stuff to the US. If that shipping goes, or like in this case, Wuhan has already gone....