Coronavirus: The Calm Before The Storm?

One of the things that jumped out for me in the presentation by Chris today was the discussion on cascading economic impacts from China shutting down, specifically the article mentioning not being able to get the fabric materials they needed, with a expected availability date of ‘June’.
I’m supposed to be having solar panels installed at my property right now but the panels (REC Alpha’s) cannot be delivered by the solar installer’s long term supplier because, you guessed it, the corona virus. Upon finally achieving contact with the distributor, they were told they could get the panels to them in ‘June’. Sounds like the party line.
I didn’t buy it two weeks ago and so we are working on a Plan B…
The solar industry is going to have increasing problems over the coming months. Before thinking that US built panels will save they day, realize, as my solar installer informed me, that even US panels have Chinese components that are used within them.
The US economy going cold turkey without cheap Chinese materials is going to result in the economic equivalent of a human addict’s withdrawals from opioids.

I’ll add to that those trying to avoid the “twinkies and big macs” have discovered you can’t buy processed food without additives - particularly sugar. So, I spend hours cooking fresh [sic] foods from scratch. Even if I purchase a 6-12 month supply of the less toxic non-perishables that I use, it won’t keep me healthy because you just can’t get a lot of stuff without additives.
Rice and beans, obvious staples, not only lack nutrients, they also cause inflammation in many people. So if I’m trying to fight inflammations to stay healthy, rice and beans won’t help.
gardens will help if they don’t serve as a beacon to starving neighbors, but even with my cold frame and starting sets inside, it’s at least 2 months away.
Uncontaminated, healthy food could become a problem.

Since my post got deleted my train of thought died and i forgot why i came here to post in the first place xD
DO NOT go on a cruise! Not for the next Year. At the very least, cancel all plans or be prepared to cancel all plans until we know HOW the people aboard the diamond princess got infected after the initiated quarantine procedures. No matter what “precautions” a company takes, it’ll never be more then full blown quarantine (and i would not like to have that kind of a cruise) nor can they possibly be effective if they don’t know What to precaution against!
They have a vested interest in the bottom line so do NOT trust a thing they say. They’re in full panic mode now trying to conserve whatever revenue they have. There is always next year; don’t play with your life over what is nothing more then a luxury.
Instead of “going on a cruise unless things get worse”, take the approach of “i’m not going on a cruise unless things get better”. The virus does not care for your convenience.
With that out of the way. I came with a few recent but very important select tweets from the excellent Jennifer Zeng who continues to report on how bad it really is:
People getting infected in full protective gear:
The police themselves now serve as an infecting vector (also shows how people drop in the street like nothing):
The Wuhan count is going down because nobody is even allowed out of their homes anymore, NOT EVEN FOR FOOD:
And finally, and this is COMPLETELY UNCONFIRMED OR UNCONFIRMABLE; but, NTD news reports one case was found infectious AFTER 42 DAYS!!!
No way to check if it’s true and that is such a long period that even i’m hiiiiighly skeptical, and i’d say it’s far more likely that person somehow came into contact with another asymptomatic infected during that time. But at this point… I’ve learned not to discount rumours completely.
While i won’t behave like it’s true… i will behave like it might be true. The Chinese government is to thank for that as they still don’t let anybody else take a look at their data. Regardless, the last place i’d wanna be right now is in a confined space with thousands or hundreds of other people and no way to get off.

You can find organic dried vegetables of all kinds. Nuts and seeds are also helpful for various vitamins and minerals.
Some of the processed foods are still healthy, especially as your choices dwindle. There is bone broth powder out there, and many “superfood” powders high in anti-oxidants, including cacao. For fat sources - calories, and for those of us who don’t do well on a high carb diet - there is butter powder, and coconut cream powder. These may also come in handy for cooking, as you need some kind of fat for most cooking.

Just saw this. The okder population is in for a doozy

Many medications don’t have dangerous withdrawals: this includes opiates - horribly unpleasant but not dangerous. Alcohol (used in excess) and benzodiazepines can have possibly dangerous withdrawals. Beta blocker and diuretic withdrawals can be a problem, as blood pressure can spike and fluids can accumulate. Best have a supply and a plan for prolonged disruption. Most diabetics would do fine in the short term (months as opposed to years) without medications, especially in a situation where they can’t get enough calories anyways. We will have to save the insulin for Type 1 diabetics. Lack of antibiotics would be a crisis though, as are some immunosuppressants like prednisone for some people, and possibly medications for cancer, epilepsy, etc. This can throw many people in crisis, but I would not worry about the people addicted to opiates (except for the fact that heroin and fentanyl unfortunately (I believe) do not come from China).
One thing that would make sense is a phone or video chat with your doctor to make a plan for your ongoing meds (not much sense in spending time in a waiting room with coughing people). They may raise an eyebrow now, but perhaps at some point in the near future, not so much.

Very helpful to know just how quickly one should get medical attention and how helpful that could be. Here’s to hoping our healthcare system is up to the task and adheres to this protocol. I’m a bit concerned that so many hospitals are privately owned and may have their own reasons to downplay a possible outbreak.
Thank you again.
May you and yours and all of us be well, peaceful and happy.

I am in the position to talk with a few expatriate Chinese here who keep in close contact with relatives back home. Things I have heard:

  • a friend in Wuhan that is around 30 and lifts weights all the time got sick and died within a few days a couple of weeks ago. A very healthy man.
  • the prisons have the virus. This is a tricky one, because this type of job is considered “secret” there. I hear that prisoners are getting sick now.
  • pride is expressed with the effort and sacrifice that ordinary people are making. People in the party are stepping up now to due their duty, apparently. This feeling is not being extended to the upper echelons of the party.
  • Wuhan is the worst hit area, and other places will not be as bad. The person telling me this was not aware of the R0.
  • No Chinese here think the virus will be a serious problem in the U.S. Reasons given are our technology and well developed medical system. Again, no one is thinking about the R0 factor.
  • anger that the party decided to shut down the entire economy and isolate everyone in place. There is surprise when I say it was worth a try to do it, as probably no one knew the R0 was so high early on. Basically, there is the feeling that whatever the government decided to do did not have the little guy’s interests in mind.
  • not taking the quarantine too seriously. Chinese that got to the U.S. before the border was closed don’t seem to be quarantining themselves very well if they feel okay. (based on an extremely small sample size)
    In general, I see a mix of depression, optimism and hopelessness in Chinese expats.

I forgot to include my standard line in my previous post :stuck_out_tongue: i had it, but again, got deleted. And i tend to forget things i’ve already written down.
The danger is not the withdrawal symptoms killing people. The danger isn’t even the virus. The danger is everybody moving at the same time. The danger is 30+ million addicts trying to find an immediate fix for 6 months during an epidemic.
What do you think are the chances of somebody going through “horribly unpleasant” opiate withdrawal staying at home and not trying to score a fix? For 6 months?
Or take masks out of the trash, wash em, then sell em off for money to buy just straight up widely available Heroin? Remember, something like 50% of Americans also live pay check to pay check. Supply and demand, if many people demand heroin and supply remains the same (or diminishes due to less international traffic), price goes up.
Heroin addicts doing everything for a fix is so widely known it’s a damn trope.

Chinese here heard about his death very quickly, and took it as a very bad sign. They have heard about the new treatment, but are discounting it for the reasons laid out by Chris in one of his latest videos, i.e. something not scaleable.

My mother, now 85, went through the Depression and WWII on rice and beans. They did have meat every Sunday, and there were plenty of fresh vegetables in the summer months. She still eats rice and beans two or three times a week. Looks like a way to go as long as there are other things available, also.

We have no cases, which you would have to put down to good luck.
The Govt put in a travel ban (under pressure from the Opposition) and it is due for review at the end of March.
The problems we face are:
It is summer here and it is peak tourism season and China makes up about 30% of tourism revenue.
University’s and foreign language schools are in their first week, Chinese students can’t get here and there are thousands of them.
Half the country is in drought and our largest trading partner is China. Cool stores are full, abattoirs have cut back to winter hours etc
Other industries reliant on China; fishing and logging. Both industries are laying off staff.
So the Chinese Ambassador holds a press conference and tells us what a fantastic job the Chinese govt is doing and questions the need for the travel ban:
24 hours later business starts to pressure the Govt to lift the ban:

Barbara, I am in a similar boat, trying to think about how to stock up on food that will not be inflammatory and won’t aggravate my food allergies. I’m looking into canning. Also looking into getting a chest freezer where I can prep veggies to freeze, at least for some time. Intermittent and longer-term fasting has been useful for me, high fat/low carb eating plan means that high fat items like olive oil and ghee are shelf-stable. But I need to eat a lot of veggies and don’t live in a situation where I have access to a garden or even much sunlight to grow things in containers. I figure canned or frozen is better than nothing. I welcome other thoughts about having access to veggies, particularly if anyone has ideas about canning things other than string beans and beets.

A sudden shortage of SSRIs could make life real interesting real fast.

About half of China’s industrial production is seriously diminished, say producing at 50% of normal which will drop GDP by 25% if it continues for 3 months in the quarter (assuming industrial production is 50% of GDP). Something less if there is a V shaped recovery.
The other half of the economy, the consumer, is experiencing a lockdown for 740 million people. I’m estimating a 50% reduction of spending for this group. No transportation, restaurants, travel, etc. This will reduce spending say 25% for the total consumer sector, and 12.5% for GDP as a whole (assuming it is half of GDP).
So a drop in the industrial component (-25%) and the consumer component (-12.5%) will cause a combined drop of 37.5% in GDP! Why then are most analysts predicting a drop of 1-2% in GDP growth? Am I missing something?

I think it’s useful to know that the withdrawal won’t kill you, but you are right, many people will look for alternatives, which is why I mentioned my concern that fentanyl and heroin are not from China.
Re: the SSRI question. Absolutely SSRI can be a withdrawal problem. There was another comment with useful info yesterday I believe.

The most important need is water, and the second is calories. It actually takes quite a while to get a nutritional deficiency if you had been healthy with high nutrients before.
Beans have calories, protein, fiber, folate, B vitamins, lots of minerals. Rice depends if white or brown, white stores for longer. White rice also has protein, carbs for energy and added vitamins, and it makes meals made with beans more enjoyable.
Wheat is very nutritious, lots of protein and folate and b vitamins and fiber. Goes good with a bean soup.
Anyway, people who have storage food usually have dry goods, which are very healthy : Grains and legumes. High vitamin canned goods like canned tomatoes, canned apricots, canned meats or fish, peanut butter. You can get dried carrots and dried onions, packed for a 30 year storage very cheaply. I have practiced cooking with these, they rehydrate just like fresh, much better than canned or frozen, no comparison. The carrots are not squishy, they have aome firmness, they smell like carrots and have vitamin A like fresh. The onions also are like fresh diced onions once rehydrated. SO, they worked very well, and just one #10 can of each would last for months and months of supply disruption. These 2 items and some garlic powder, and canned tomatoes ( I can my home grown, but there are good quality canned, especially BioNaturae or Eden, but if you can only afford WinnCO that will do fine too ! ), some soy sauce and hot sauce…
I have dehydrated parsley and green onions, you slice the green onions, and these 2 dry so fast, you just lay them on a cookie sheet indoors ( if it is warm, so in a warm location indoors) and after they are dry, put in a glass jar. Low heat drying out of the sun keeps all the nutrients, so you can all do this now ( if it is too humid, you can put in the oven at a very low temp, if yours will stay low, just pilot light low). So, then more variety and vitamins for the supply disruption pantry. Dry some kale while you are at it in the same way, kale is very nutritious.
Dried fruit can be very good. Nuts. So, dried apricots, dried persimmons, you can still get these in the store and good to snack on and make porridge ( from your stored grains ) more enjoyable.
There are so many grains, most people can find ones that agree with them. Wheat, oats, corn, rice, millet, buckwheat, etc…

I find it incredibly hard to believe that there are not cases in India. In all honesty, I don’t believe it.