Coronavirus: The Calm Before The Storm?

Last week Chris gave a wonderful example of actual virus cases running their course by plotting it out on a calendar… showing how the virus starts off slow, but potentially turning serious into a 3 week gauntlet.
Since then I have been pondering the official numbers and have come up with some thoughts to share based on the WuFluLive website statistics:
The data set begins on Jan, 23rd with China reporting 830 confirmed cases. As of yesterday (2-17-20) China reports 72,528 confirmed cases… in just 3 and 1/2 weeks.
Also reported yesterday, the rest of the world had 896 confirmed cases, passing the first China number reported from January 23.
Where might the “rest of the world” count be in 3 and 1/2 weeks time?
It seems to me that the real important numbers to look at, irrespective of their truthfulness/ reliability, are the results of those having been infected by the virus
As of yesterday, 1,875 dead, 13,147 recovered.
The only outcome is either death or life (recovery). Some simple math calculations yield frightening results…
1,875 + 13,147 = 15,022 (total reported people who ran the Covid 19 guantlet)
1,875 / 15,022 = 12.5% death rate. Stated another way, so far, according to the reported outcomes, one in eight infections has resulted in death.
So maybe it affects the elderly more… or maybe it affects Asians more… or maybe… maybe, maybe!
Prudence would seem to indicate that, maybe, you don’t want to even play the Covid 19 game at all!
A random thought I’d like to wonder out loud:
There are probably tens of thousands, maybe millions of CPAP machines in existence… I wonder if the mask could be modified to incorporate a flow of oxygen as a way of therapy for people who are making a turn towards critical condition? There most certainly are not enough respirators.

The Weston A Price Foundation (WAPF) @ was extremely impactful to changing my approach to food and a deep pantry. I’d recommend learning how to prepare traditional foods via soaking, fermentation, and “slow food” types of processes. Whole foods, not processed foods. Dry goods prepared via soaking and even slight fermentation sufficiently reduce inflammation causing compounds. Fruit, vegetable, and even meat (ham, prosciutto, salamai) can all be preserved via fermentation instead of canning and result in a much higher nutrient content, lower inflammation response and better taste and texture. For example, part of my deep pantry is a 5 gallon container with several heads of cabbage, brussel sprouts, garlic, and a few other goodies thrown in for fun all fermenting in lightly salted water and a bubbler on top. The cabbage leaves will be used for cabbage rolls, low carb tacos, sandwiches, or chopped and used in many dishes. I will say that I’ve not attempted to ferment meat since that takes a little more caution, but veggies are easy.
To dial it in a little more for inflammation you may first need to address “leaky gut” issues. The GAPS protocol is one of many, but a good place to start. Both WAPF and GAPS (or any other leaky gut protocol) recommend utilizing the whole animal for health, and bone broth is key to good nutrition and healing gut or microbiome issues.

I like this question that you have posed. I always found it poignant to think of the musicians playing to offer comfort to the passengers as they faced what was happening. And I think that’s the key difference. Whether the “music” is meant to distract us from what the reality is or if it is meant to help us face it. To me it doesn’t offer comfort or transcendence if it is attempting to minimize or point our attention away from what is actually happening.

Its a given that most of us are going to have to care for ourselves at home when this gets serious. There may come a time though, no matter how prepared we are, that someone with us (or ourselves) become so sick that seeking professional medical care is called for.
When that happens, you are almost certainly going to end up at a hospital that is at the breaking point, with few resources and personnel. I’m thinking the more information you can provide that first nurse or doctor who sees you, the more likely they can make a good diagnosis in the shortest amount of time.
I assume a form with basic patient info would be needed. Things like age, sex, home address and SS# and basic descriptions (so they can identify you). Medical history of past illnesses or injuries, any medication they are on, either prescription or over the counter, Insurance contact info if they have it. Anything else?
So what illness related information would be important?
I have (or will have soon) a thermometer, oximeter, and blood pressure cuff.
I figure that I should establish a base line over a couple of days, then at the first sign I should be recording temperature, blood oxygen level and blood pressure. How often would I want to take these?
Any other symptoms I should note? Fatigue, shortness of breath, nausea, chills or hot flashes first noticed?
I’m pretty good with making forms (have a good set of graphics programs on my pc). If I can get some guidance I can make one people here can download and print to fill in and take with them.

I also think having a medical care directive made up and signed for each person would be useful.
If you end up at a hospital, having one would give you a little more legal right to be there while treatment is going on, and might prevent the hospital from shipping the ill person off to a quarantine camp if they appear too sick to make a decision for themselves. Having someone fit, who can say “I can treat them at home!” might get them to release the person to you just to get you out of their hair.

3 cases (so far) according to the JHU CSSE outbreak map.
And even though India has canceled all existing visas for Chinese nationals and foreigners who’ve visited China, you’d think there would be more.

Coronavirus call to Governor Cuomo by Dr Paul Cottrell.
Nurses claiming cases not reporting cases.

Last week Chris gave a wonderful example of actual virus cases running their course by plotting it out on a calendar… showing how the virus starts off slow, but potentially turning serious into a 3 week gauntlet.

Since then I have been pondering the official numbers and have come up with some thoughts to share based on the WuFluLive website statistics: The data set begins on Jan, 23rd with China reporting 830 confirmed cases. As of yesterday (2-17-20) China reports 72,528 confirmed cases… in just 3 and 1/2 weeks. Also reported yesterday, the rest of the world had 896 confirmed cases, passing the first China number reported from January 23. Where might the “rest of the world” count be in 3 and 1/2 weeks time?
Well Damn!
In China they said that they use the serum from recovered people to help those who are fighting the infection. Therefore, there is something protective in the blood of people who have recovered. So maybe it’s not such a great treatment. The report also says that he was 51, very healthy, and did not expect to pass away from this infection. This makes me think that overwork, poor sleep, and just the grief of losing so many patients are very harmful in this situation.
Myrto, its my understanding that the major complication from the second infection, is heart problems. Apparently, some of the medicines used to fight the virus can cause strain and damage to the heart. The second time you fall ill, in some cases, then puts too much stress on your heart and you have a heart attack. The blood infusion therapy probably deals with a different set of conditions than that. We just don't have much information on what kind of tests they performed using the transfusions and how they did it. Too little sleep and other stresses that medical professionals, pushed to the limit, probably is a huge factor in why they fall sick and sometimes die. Getting at least 8 hours of sleep for any of us who get ill is going to help your immune system fight this off. A good video to watch on that is these two from Medcram:  

Coronavirus may spread faster than WHO estimate

Written by Ana Sandoiu on February 18, 2020 - Fact checkedby Carolyn Robertson New

New research reviews the basic reproduction number (R0) of the new coronavirus, that is, the number that indicates how transmissible a virus is, and finds that it is much higher than current estimates.

Thanks Montana Native. I watched that video you posted featuring the Japanese infection control specialist and was disappointed to hear that in spite of all the attention paid to the Diamond Princess that such poor internal controls were in place.
As the Doctor noted, the bureaucrats are in charge and nobody has an interest in following contagion protocols.
That message should be a wake-up call to all of us that we are on our own when decisions from untrained authorities are made that can affect our lives.
We must take care not to allow ourselves to be caught in situations where our freedoms get restricted by incompetents.
I would not travel right now, for example. As this virus spreads there is no guarantee we will even get home again as air travel restrictions may be widely expanded.
Do we really want to be stuck in foreign countries as this illness spins out of control? That list now includes Japan where one might ordinarily feel safe.
No place is safe anymore.

Could be as “simple” as not wanting to alarm the public before proper precautions are taken to prepare for the onslaught against medical infrastructure.

The connection between mass shootings and psych meds is surprisingly strong, especially when you include those who recently stopped taking them.
Best to have a plan for the zombie apocalypse. Even in your “safe,” low crime location.

I must have blinked and missed the increase from 15 confirmed cases to now 29:
Is the increase attributed to those newly repatriated US citizens?

Here are some clearer charts than what was presented by George Karpouzis in an earlier post. The information comes from:

Age of Coronavirus Deaths

Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology [1] has found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

80+ years old
70-79 years old
60-69 years old
50-59 years old
40-49 years old
30-39 years old
20-29 years old
10-19 years old
0-9 years old
no fatalities

Sex ratio

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by SEX:


Pre-existing medical conditions

Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:

Cardiovascular disease
Chronic respiratory disease
no pre-existing conditions
Although these numbers are likely to change as we get more reliable information, the information is likely a good ballpark for assessing your personal morbidity. If you are in a high risk category, you may want to work harder to avoid contracting the virus. I'm personally more concerned with the pain and suffering associated with a severe case. If this doesn't kill me, I'll eventually die of something else (no sarcasm intended.) Grover

Hi Sabemenos, would you please provide a link to the article, “Coronavirus may spread faster than WHO estimate”?
Thanks! :slight_smile:

The publication mentioned in the Medical News Today article is here:

In addition to food and pharmaceutical supply risks, among other things, so many of our utility systems and facilities require regular and ongoing maintenance. Think power generation, the electrical grid, water filtration plants, sewage plants and so on. Both the hardware and software requires all kinds of parts and specialized skills that may not be available. As I type this I am watching a hydro worker replacing something on the pole outside of my home, wondering what would happen if he was unable to get the part he needs, or if he and a bunch of his peers were off sick or in a quarantine. Would my home be at risk for a power outage? The neighbourhood, the city? How about my water supply? Will the pumps that need to be maintained get maintained on a timely basis?
These are crucial questions to ponder as part of one’s personal risk assessment. Some things are beyond our control but it never hurts to think about a plan B for such an eventuality. It is far easier to develop the plan B while in a relative state of calm, with adequate lead time, than when in panic mode after it is discovered, for example, that there will be an extended power outage of unknown duration. All the more so if you have dependants and any special needs e.g. a power-operated wheelchair that needs to be charged daily.
I say this not to cause alarm but to help people think broadly beyond the immediate needs of food and medicine. There are so many implications of supply chain shut downs, it is truly mind boggling… our vulnerabilities are being exposed big time, which hopefully will wake up more people to the downsides of globalization and the critical dependencies that brings.
I have no doubt that this will lead to a rethink on the merits of globalization in many c-suites - at least I seriously hope it does! So many millions of businesses have put their operations, and by extension we their employees and customers at serious risk by poor supply management practices, all in the name of greater profits and enhancing shareholder value. But before they can make any large scale changes to reduce those vulnerabilities we first have to get through this crisis. It is increasingly looking like tough times ahead on many fronts, health and otherwise. I really hope it does not get as bad as many are fearing, but that hope is resting on a shaky foundation :frowning:
Great work Chris et al it is so much appreciated!

Per BNO Newsroom
I figured this would be the case as China cant stay on lockdown much longer without imploding. Besides, people will start starving to death and all that if the country doesnt get back to work.
Seems like the CCP has seen the data and is ready to move forward with its economy. Most stats have the CFR at 2 percent, with the majority of fatalities in the 70 year old and above range.