I’m a fan of both. Both are proven and each has its place.
Eclesiastes 3:7 A time to be silent and a time to speak.
Psalm 46:10 Be still and know that I am God.
Philippians 4:6 Do not be anxious about anything, but in every situation, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God.
A Hobbesian choice now: I had planned to use the old tees as rewashable tissue paper.
https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/
Balance means no megadoses. None is not good. Some is good. Too much is too much.
Cycles mean there is a optimum time for moderate exposure. Avoid high noon sun but do get sunshine. Get more sun exposure during the times of year when the sun is not as high in the sky. Get less sun exposure during the times of year when the sun is high.
Individuality means a light skinned Celtic redhead is not going to tolerate as much sun as a dark skinned African.
A lot of it is just common sense.
Been thinking about why it has taken so long for mass testing of COVID-19. Other nations have run circles around the US, so I think something else is going on. We can all read the articles on the delays, but they don’t quite ring true.
If testing were available, wouldn’t the vast majority line up to get tested? Wouldn’t this be a great opportunity to capture the genome of everyone in this country? Has it taken the CDC this long to get their ducks in a row to capture this data? What would they do with this data?
No - the CDC has our best interest at heart. Must have been something I had for breakfast.
Main hypothesis - lack of testing means CFRs massively overstating actual risk
Sub-hypothesis - R0 higher than suggested meaning virus spreading fast so large numbers of people get infected very quickly leading to a temporary surge of patients in hospital
Conspiracy theorist view: We’re being played by someone with an agenda. Testing was deliberately hamstrung in the US in order that this crisis could be created. Not saying I know this for a fact, or that it’s true. I don’t. But if there is a conspiracy - this is it.
Main article https://towardsabettersociety.home.blog/2020/03/19/corona-virus-case-fatality-rate/
UPDATE 1: Mean age of fatalities in Italy 81. 2/3 already seriously ill.
UPDATE 2: We’ve been here before with swine flu where “the estimates based on confirmed cases were up to 500 times higher than those based on symptomatic cases or infections”. In other words the reported CFRs for swine flu were worthless nonsense. The same is true for corona virus.
UPDATE 3: Singapore
Singapore has zero deaths from 385 cases. The exact number of tests are also not tracked on worldometer, but this article (http://theconversation.com/why-singapores-coronavirus-response-worked-and-what-we-can-all-learn-134024) notes that less than 1% of their tests are coming back positive so we know that they have tested at least 38,500 people (more than half as many tests as Italy) to find just 385 cases. Here’s what the article says about the testing process: “On testing, the threshold for getting a test is pretty low. For the first week, we tested only people from Wuhan or Hubei province, then we tested anyone who had been in China within the last 14 days. By the end of January, all of our public hospitals could do tests. Then we moved to enhanced screening – we tested anyone coming to a hospital with a respiratory illness, anyone who had been in contact with a COVID-19 patient. Now, it’s even become more liberal. If you’re a hospital staff member with a mild cold, we’ll give you a test.” This recent study suggests that 86% of infected people are completely asymptomatic. If this is correct then even Singapore is missing a large number of cases, and so has considerably more than 385 infected people and they still have zero deaths.
Hi RebelYell,
I read your post. I liked it a lot. Indeed there are some aspects that puzzle me. What I understand from the Dutch cases however is that, compared to the flu, HB19 patients in ICU have a much higher probability to die, and the time they occupy the beds is also much longer. I also believe that the CFR is way smaller than the 3%. On the other hand, the load for the healthcare system is considerably larger for HB19 as compared to the flu: now is not a good time to suffer a heart attack. The rational, lean design of our companies, organizations and infrastructure leads to a very fragile society. Combined with an enlightened view on what “to be human” entails, strong non-linear behavior is the result of a system shock like HB19. If we, as a society, would decide that we do not care about the old, the weak and the sick, there would be less of a problem; but in my opinion we would have lost the right to think of ourselves as humans. The world is already cold and sometimes rather ugly, the choice not to care would make it a living hell imo.
Thanks for your critical view, and very well written blog!
Yes - I think your points are likely true. And if they are I would argue that our current approach is badly wrong and fails to protect the elderly.
If we isolate everyone we are dragging out the epidemic for a long time, but also basically ensuring that everyone still has about the same chance of eventually catching the disease because it won’t stop spreading until we achieve herd immunity.
What we should do is isolate the elderly, the immuno-compromised, and the sick as far as possible and allow everyone else to carry on as normal. That way we could ensure that the rest of us - those unlikely to be severely affected - get the disease at a preferential rate to the elderly. And those of us that got the disease would become boron rods in a nuclear reactor, and we could hopefully get to herd immunity as quickly possible while as few as possible of the truly vulnerable were infected and therefore protect the elderly without 70%+ of them having to catch the disease first.
EI177,
I haven’t checked through all your numbers, but I did want to highlight a couple of points you made.
Firstly “Then I assume the test kits are pitifully lacking, so the real # of infections is 1000 times higher”
Perhaps the number of cases is out be less than a factor of 1,000 - but let’s say you are correct. What does that say about the fatality rate? To me it says it’s approaching zero and it doesn’t really matter if you get infected. For every extra undetected case you postulate to increase your risk of catching the disease, the fatality rate must go down and your risk of dying once infected decreases.
“But a disturbing thought would be if all together they encountered less than 27,000 people in a day (E < 1), then p would be even higher than 85.2%. Then encountering an infected person pretty much guarantees oneself getting infected too.”
I don’t think this is a disturbing thought at all. If this were really the case - and any encounter whatsoever resulted in transmission then it would be the case that almost all of us would already have been infected and the fatality rate would be very low indeed. I don’t think this is the case by the way, but I do want to make the point that you might panic because this disease is so infective, or you might panic because it is so deadly, but you shouldn’t panic about both at once because the more it is one, the less it is the other. Personally I do not believe (which is not the same as being certain) I need have any fear of this disease at all.
Still - we should take measures as a society to protect those that do have a reason to fear: the sick, the elderly and the immuno-compromised.
Wow! This article and graphics based on Columbia University researchers’ projections is an eye-opener. There are projections at US, state and county levels showing Covid-19 cases and distribution curves and maps for three scenarios: no transmission reduction, some control measures, and severe control measures.
County-level projections note percent and number of population infected and estimated date when those cases peak. If you apply currently accepted estimates of case severity (i.e. 80% “mild” cases; 15% serious; 5% severe requiring intensive care hospitalization; and deaths about 3%–or use whatever figures you feel are most accurate) then you can get a sense of how overwhelmed our health care systems will become without imposing any reduction measures. For my county, it translates to about 130,000 infected, and of those 6,500 needing intensive care hospitalization. I am pretty sure we do not have those kind of resources presently.
Without Urgent Action, Coronavirus Could Overwhelm U.S., Estimates Say
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html
Watch this : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFB_C2ieW5I
Background: I live in Uk, 28 Years OLD Male, Great condition 60kg, Been practicing Breating and Fasting for 1 year and one meal a day diet Eggs,Fish ,Juicing.
Please watch the Video before reading the progression of sickness to understand that the amount of virus you catch will dictate how severe is going to be.
WEAR MASKS !!!
12 - 13 March
Symptoms:
Started feeling cold than usual while working. No Fever
This is how it Starts !!!
Day 1 Sat 14 March
(DO NOT USE ANY DRUGS APART FROM VITAMINS, THE BODY NEEDS THE FEVER TO BATTLE THE VIRUS.
5 pm Feever started
10pm Throat felt infected and pulsing ball of heat.(Now looking at the data I know I got infected with large amount of virus)
10-11 Started on fluids tea, Vitamin C, and warming legs + head . (Got the fever out, I shouldn’t had)
No Temperature.
Withing 5 Hours I lost my voice.
Throuat inflammation went into the lungs down .
Big hit at the chest almost paralysing my lungs for 10 sec in cicles.(What happens is because of high amount of virus contracted, too much is hitting the lungs too early, so the lungs just shut down no oxygen and the hearth is saying we need more blood to pump (I’m assuming people are imploding, especially if they take iboprofen , cofee …)
With the Breathing exercise (It is really spiritual) people learn to relax and slow their hearth rate while lacking oxygen but their blood is oxyginised
No Cough
Shortness of breath has begun with huge inflamation ches + throat Hot
Staying up almost into the next day. just sleep 2,3 hours.
Day 2 15 March Sunday
Day-Night
Starting Self Isolation,
Strenghtening body with Vitamins D,C,Zinc
Morning Breathing ,5 eggs raw(drink), Orange, avacado or banana + carrot + lemon (Its all about oxygen and saving energy(no digestion) for the battle)
If males have preserved their semen for 4-7 days prior to illness , that energy will be utilized for the battle as well(this all has huge biblical significance)
Later in day Maybe tuna but just continue on tea ,water, fruits do not overload the system(By doing this I believe your body is able to absorb oxygen a lot quicker from enviroment prior to meat satanic diet )
Been Practicing breathing 4 times a day
Day 3 16 March
Day-Night
Productive Cough is trying to get out (Posture Change might be needed)
Notes: Anything antiflammatory is not helpting, since the body has to naturally overcome and win.
Ramped up Oranges and liquides at night, Eating after 6 is wrong because digestion is using a lot of energy, at night is where you fight this.
Night time is the fight, I could not sleep for 2 h and then turned on my belly and started having 1h sleeping intervals with sweating every time.
Oxygen Improved
Been Practicing Breathing 4 times a day
Ended up with 6 Hours of productive sleep. GOOD
Day 4 17 March
Day-Night
Felling better ,.Started taking additional vit D pills.
Breathing Exercise is crutual by doing it you learn how to direct the immune system at a body point not overreacting and heating the body. Basically you become a futuion reactor , self sustained.
Day 5 March 18.
Feeling better but the body has taken a hit and there is pain at the back , front and generally feeling the damage.
Lungs function perfectly… because of breathing exercises . There is less oxygen in my body and I still feel lack of energy.
Started having more food , less vitamins and more SLEEP.
Breathing exercises CRUTIAL !!!
Day 6 ARCH 19.
First Night I had 10 Hours SLEEP, i feel rested but very uncoordinated(Probably because long rest).
Going through breakfast, I went for walk 30 min. Still need recovery but a lot better. Lung pain and back pain almost dissapeared.
Day 7 March 20.
NOTHING TO REPORT , ONLY BODY FEELS A BIT WEAK BUT I WILL WAIT FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE Trusting my immunity and get exposed to society(Obviously wearing PPE against High Anoculumb)
Regarding starting a Garden to protect against food scarcity/insecurity I’ve been looking for opinions on what to plant. I saw some videos which recommended simple “easy to grow” plants like beans, various Asian greens, zuchs (squash), carrots, and radishes. Anyone have another to add (or recommend against one of these). I’m limited in space (15’x30’) fyi.
Thanks
My wife is a RN and she says it makes sense to her. Anyone see this? Feed back?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3e2RXLDa5noW
I always sun bathe at high noon. I eat a lot of salt and saturated fat. Why? Because the CDC said not to. Your mileage may vary.
What Are The Best Materials for Making DIY Masks?
They do not list furnace filters though.
DIY tutorial here on Peak Prosperity
Whew! And not a moment too soon! Sanity will return! 
For the really good post.
Well, first off, months ago (early January in fact), we saw the pattern emerging and decided to think for ourselves and not act on the inane public statements of our elected officials here in the U.S. Specifically, we:
Got busy topping off the preps we’ve already been making for years; long time PP members know we here at Chateau Snydeman have been getting ready for some sort of collapse for years now, and I even have a video up somewhere about what we’ve been doing. We were not caught flat-footed.
Anyways, as shit started hitting the fan, we decided we needed to look over our spring plans and make sure all was as it should be. Well, as luck would have it, this is the year our garden needs to lie fallow, to rest the soil and get rid of some nasty mold we’ve had to deal with in our tomato and squash plants…
But hell’s bells, this is a bad time to stop gardening, so the Mrs. and I decided it’d be a good time to convert our 1/5th acre back yard into a full-scale garden, so besides turning the soil, we bought the essential supplies for an anti-deer fence and soil enhancements (mixed with our own compost).
We also got ahead of the curve by about a month, and bought Elderberries before it became “a thing” and hard to find in our area, and we made some syrup.
Don’t worry, that’s just the first batch. We made much more.
Next, we looked to home security, and we added to our firearm collection a Sig-Sauer compact 9mm for the wifey, and a CZ Scorpion with a collapsible stock to fill the gap between our handguns and our AR-10 (“Betsy”), mostly because we like using the same ammunition - have you tried getting ammo right now? - and because the Scorpion got many, many good reviews. However, when rehearsing what we’d do in a home invasion, we realized we’d have about 3.5 seconds to react in the event of a break-in through our front and rear doors, so we MacGyvered a solution that, while not ideal, was budget friendly and enough to give us maybe 30 extra seconds to respond should anyone try bashing in our doors. Perfect? No. Better than before? Yes.
File this under “stuff I never thought I’d have to do.” God, that file is getting bigger by the day, too.
After triple checking our food and medical supplies - enough to last our family of four at least a year - and making sure we had enough seeds on hand for our whole community if need be, we took a day to remind ourselves why this all matters to begin with, and went to a local park to hike and spend time with each other and our kids.
This. This is what truly matters; those around us we love and cherish.
May the odds be in our favor, friends. Prepare…by all that is good, prepare! But, don’t forget to live life in the process.
-S
Interesting contrast between how NY vs LA approach to Coronavirus suppression/mitigation. Kudos that LA public health is giving masks to grocery store workers (first, that they recognize that they are needed; second that local government is providing them). Not good that they have received only 200 swabs for testing from the federal government. The mayor expresses concern (expectation) of a second Covid-10 surge wave in fall 2020. He also mentions his phone conference call with other US mayors in which he urged them to action sooner, rather than later/too late. (This lends credence to the likelihood of a national lockdown soon, IMO.) There’s more of course, so a worthwhile watch for 10.34 minutes–especially if you’re sequestered in “stay-at-home” mode, isolation, lockdown, quarantine, or any other term that means you’re not out-and-about unless absolutely necessary.
Los Angeles Mayor: ‘We Also Need To Be Prepared For This 6, 7 Months From Now’
https://youtu.be/g357YEjpvc0
Thanks for the update, your place looks great.
I have no idea, but here are some thoughts:
- Cell death starts at 106°F and is severe by 113°F. Could this technique kill the cells that line the nasal passages and in doing so, make one more vulnerable to infection?
- The data says 133°F kills the virus in a few minutes. What happens at lower temperatures like 110°F or 120°F?
- I imagine there would be some viral particles in the throat. The air is probably cooler at that point. By how much? Is the air still warm enough help the throat?
- There could also be some viral particles in the lungs. The air as cooled even more by then. Consider also that the body's entire blood flow passes through the lungs, making it very difficult to heat them up by inhaling hot air and if you did succeed, I for one do not want to heat the cells lining the lungs to over 106°F. That might be worse than the disease.