Thanks Tom,
This was worth every minute of my time… I would recommend everyone to watch with an open mind…
Max, would training an AI on a model which is already false and modeled to produce a pre-planned output just produce the expected numbers?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/02/05/ai-predicts-coronavirus-could-infect-25b-and-kill-53m-doctors-say-thats-not-credible-and-heres-why/#2883aed11cd0
I mean, if the Chinese already have the public number put down ahead of time, training a AI to predict the new numbers based on the old data would then confirm the Chinese numbers for the next day.
Ok my head is spinning over that paragraph.
Do you understand my question?
As someone who is an old hat to having a deep pantry and a decent amount of food stored for an emergency, I sometimes forget that common things I do, people new to preparing don’t know.
Case in point, as you buy extra food, take a sharpie marker and write the date you bought the food on the package. For a soup can, just write on the bottom of the can. This way you can easily see which is the oldest of your foods, and then choose that for your meal today.
A large pantry isn’t something to accumulate and then let sit, its something you want to rotate, eating the oldest first, then adding new supplies.
Also, buy what you eat. If you don’t eat rice or beans on a regular weekly basis, don’t pick up 10 pound bags of either. Nothing makes self quarantine suck like eating the same bowl of rice and beans every single day.
And don’t forget some comfort food. Buy at least some that you can have as a treat, like granola bars, those small bit sized candy bars, poptarts, even some cookies. When you hit a snag or feel stressed, sit down for a moment and take a break.
The Pandemic will wait 5 minutes.
right now with pre ‘valentines day’ products on the shelves is a good time to supplement treats especially if you have kids since the prices are as good as they get. Buying organic seeds to sprout is also an activity you can do with children that allows them to help produce edible food/greens and provides some daily structure in a lock down situation.
Good point Redreamer, small indoor gardening is a great activity for children in normal times. In a situation of self quarantine, having an activity which keeps their interest and puts a little food on the table to spice up their meals would be great. Nothing like eating a meal you helped grow.
There are just tons of Youtube videos on how to grow them. I like the Home Garden channel, since I ran across this neat way to grow onion greens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVauY_zXHA8&t=111s
I’m not sure where they are, since I don’t recognize the language but you don’t need to. The videos are easy to follow and easy to make.
I haven’t tried the onion one yet, still too early here to get onion sets but I suppose I could use green onions from the grocery store if I needed to. I’ve got a pretty good indoor growing set up, that I’m about to re-set up for the Spring anyway. I do quite a bit of container growing since I teach it on my website.
Yes all good fun but abstain from wheat and other grains. They contain lectins, the evil poisons of these plants. Also abstain from sprouted beans.
you can sprout beets, radish, broccoli, cabbages etc. and eat those.
For more info goto the other PP, Plant Paradox of dr. Gundry. The guy is serious.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC440759/
Yeah, Matties, Plants really don’t like to be eaten. Who knew? They want you to eat their fruits in order to spread the seeds. Most modern engineered fruits are really too high in sugar for the average person. Avocado is a high fat, low glycemic fruit, high in potassium. I buy, mash and freeze.
good opinion article on why corona is reason for concern including onsite on US hospital systems that are ill equipped to handle:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-yes-worry-about-coronavirus-20200206-ane5vluupjblbnr4sbvrquuxqy-story.html%3FoutputType=amp
Thanks Kunga, more or less, you are the first to adres me. Thanks…
I just wish the people to become aware. Aware of what ? Just aware.
Aware is different from woke.
I’m not an epidemiologist, statistician, or anything of the like.
All this talk about mortality rate really bugs me. Death from this virus is a lagging number. It’s safe to say that whatever the Chinese numbers are in regards to anything about this outbreak is contrived. The cases outside of China have just been popping up the past 10 days or so. I have to believe that death can occur up to 21 to 28+ days after initial contact with the virus. It is premature to have much of clear idea of the transmissibility and severity of this disease. This because everyone is using fuzzy numbers, and not enough time has passed to get any type of real data. The next 2-4 weeks will be quite telling. When it comes to mortality rate my sense is that this can only be arrived at when this outbreak gets closer to a steady state and this will likely take many weeks.
We know: this is a terrible illness otherwise 150 million people would not be quarantined via the PLA no less, cases are popping up globally (and somehow the virus is magically going to die out in these countries?!), China immediately (tried to) quarantine all information from their 1.4 billion citizens from going out of the country, all we here from officials around the world is “we got this”, etc. Also, where in the world can there be any type of quarantine similar to China’s? Maybe Russia. It’s hard for me to foresee how the world’s economy doesn’t come to a near standstill if there are expanding outbreaks all over the world.
Kunga, I heard a discussion on Radio Scotland yesterday about precautions to take to minimise risk of coronavirus infection. The “expert” said that in the UK they don’t recommend that people wear masks, because people don’t know how to use them properly, which leads to inadvertent spread of disease due to some complacency. Eg if someone is infectious, and uses a mask which quickly becomes a huge repository of infectious material, when they remove it with a bare hand, and don’t immediately bin it / burn it, and don’t immediately wash their hand(s) they start touching surfaces and spreading the virus anyway. Instead we’ve been advised to avoid touching our faces / eyes / mouth, and wear gloves at all times when out in public. On returning home, the gloves should be washed immediately, hands also washed immediately, and this should help minimise the risk. But I’m conscious of reports that people have become infected in China via unprotected eyes from infectious people coughing droplets into the air. So - masks, gloves and eye protection, and careful washing of hands/gloves/masks/clothes after venturing out would provide the best protection - while also avoiding touching ones face/mouth etc.
There seems to be alot of confusion/confounding here of ACE and ACE2. It is easy to confuse for sure, science does a crappy job naming things (they all sound so alike but they are different!) which creates these misunderstandings. Maybe this can help.
ACE is a gene called Angiotensin I Converting Enzyme. This gene encodes an enzyme involved in catalyzing the conversion of angiotensin I into a physiologically active peptide angiotensin II. Angiotensin II is a potent vasopressor and aldosterone-stimulating peptide that controls blood pressure and fluid-electrolyte balance. This enzyme plays a key role in the renin-angiotensin system. Many studies have associated the presence or absence of a 287 bp Alu repeat element in this gene with the levels of circulating enzyme or cardiovascular pathophysiologies. This mutation is commonly referred to as the ACE insertion/deletion or, more simply ACE I/D. The relative frequency of this mutation in various ethnic populations worldwide has been of interest to scientists (As are the population frequencies of many other mutations in hundreds of genes) as they have bearing on diseases, medications, etc. ACE is NOT related to 2019 novel CoV or SARS at all.
ACE inhibitors produce vasodilation by inhibiting the formation of angiotensin II. (Which is NOT ACE2) This molecule is a potent vasoconstrictor formed by the proteolytic action of renin (released by the kidneys) acting on circulating angiotensinogen to form angiotensin I.
ACE inhibitors end with -pril: benazepril (Lotensin, Lotensin Hct); captopril (Capoten); enalapril (Vasotec); fosinopril (Monopril); lisinopril (Prinivil, Zestril). These medications have nothing to do with Coronaviruses.
Much has been made about the non-peer reviewed study that ACE2 is the putative (considered to be based on available evidence)receptor for the spike protein of novel CoV (and likely this seems true) but even more has been said here by commenters that Asian males are more susceptible because they hav higher expression of ACE2 in lung cells.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1
I want to say that study was done on EIGHT samples from a tissue bank of lung tissue from healthy donors. ONE of those samples came from a Asian male and in this tissue sample ACE2 expression was found to be much higher than in other samples, and ACE2 was also being expressed in more cell types. The authors SPECULATE that this observation may underlie the virulence for novel CoV in Asians.
First: this sample size is ridiculously small, it is NOT established fact. It is a very interesting observation that needs to be replicated by another research group in a much larger cohort. I am not a statistician, but there are guidelines for sample size needed in order to obtain results that can be statistically significant. That sample size of EIGHT was insufficiently powered. You can read more here: https://www.statisticsdonewrong.com/power.html
So, if someone looked at tissue samples from 1000 people, 250 each: Africans, Caucasians, Asians and Latinos of roughly half male/female you might get a better idea of the actual ACE2 expression pattern as it varies by ethnicity. BTW: I am not a statistician, so 1000 might not be sufficiently powered (or may be overpowered) …but you get the idea.
Also, when you read the comments associated with this study, several people (way smarter than me, who work in this area of science) point out some problems with the methodologies used in the research. I cannot comment on this, as I am not a subject matter expert in this area, but I am very clear this happens alot…..it is only people who work in these highly specialized niche areas of research who can understand these subtleties.
But what about ACE2? https://www.genecards.org/cgi-bin/carddisp.pl?gene=ACE2&keywords=ACE2
First, it is not ACE, it is also not angiotensin II.
ACE2 (Angiotensin I Converting Enzyme 2) is a gene that encodes an enzyme which converts angiotensin I to angiotensin 1-9, a peptide of unknown function, and angiotensin II to angiotensin 1-7, a vasodilator (PubMed:10969042, PubMed:10924499, PubMed:11815627). Also able to hydrolyze apelin-13 and dynorphin-13 with high efficiency (PubMed:11815627). By cleavage of angiotensin II, may be an important regulator of heart function (PubMed:10969042, PubMed:10924499). By cleavage of angiotensin II, may also have a protective role in acute lung injury (By similarity). Plays an important role in amino acid transport by acting as binding partner of amino acid transporter SL6A19 in intestine, regulating trafficking, expression on the cell surface, and its catalytic activity (PubMed:18424768, PubMed:19185582). ACE2_HUMAN,Q9BYF1
ACE2 also acts as a receptor for SARS coronavirus/SARS-CoV. ACE2_HUMAN,Q9BYF1
What apparently makes novel CoV so serious for some is this surface expression of ACE2 protein on lung alveolar epithelial cells. ACE2 is poorly expressed in the upper respiratory tract: nose, sinus tissue, throat, but gets expressed in the lung. Hence, many people develop a fever and shortness of breathe, pneumonia and never really get a “cold” prior: sneezing, sore throat.
In short high/upregulated ACE is bad: think high blood pressure. Hence ACE inhibitors to block it.
ACE2 is good. An upregulated ACE2 (not angiotensin II) is actually regarded beneficial in cardiovascular and kidney disease. Perhaps having alot of ACE2 expressed in lung tissue ends up being bad for CoV infection though…and the result of that infection is the down regulation/inhibition of ACE2’s positive effects.
Stephen Buhner mentions in his book, page 55: “SARS viruses attach to ACE-2 on the surface of lung, lymph, and spleen epithelial cells. (Licorice, Chinese skullcap, luteolin, horse chestnut, Polygonum spp., Rheum officinale, and plants high in pro- cyanidins and lectins such as elder and cinnamon block attachment to varying degrees.)”. Unfortunately the research supporting this statement tends to be highly technical in-vitro experiments with purified constituents, not real life/in vivo clinical trials involving 2019 novel coronavirus. But hey, it is something to look at seriously. Herbs are powerful used correctly.
And what about using ARBs? These drugs end in -sartan. Azilsartan (Edarbi); candesartan (Atacand), valsartan (Diovan); losartan (Cozaar); olmesartan (Benicar).
ARB stands for AT1R blockers and they represent a major class of antihypertensive medications.
Angiotensin-II (not ACE2) activates two major types of receptors, angiotensin II type one (AT1R) and type two (AT2R) receptors. While AT1R is widely expressed and mediates most inflammatory Ang-II effects (bad), AT2R, is less expressed and has opposite effects, promoting vasodilation and anti-inflammatory effects [1] . Physiologically, AT2R actions are usually masked by the more abundant AT1R. It has been suggested that ARBs can mediate their action through increasing angiotensin II (Ang II) availability to bind to the beneficial angiotensin type 2 receptor (AT2R), thus leading to unopposed AT2R stimulation.
So long story short, ARBs do not block the gene or the enzyme ACE2. They block the receptor for Angiotensin 2 (AT1R: which is produced by ACE, not ACE2).
I know, it is crazy to sort out. But trust me, ACE inhibitors and ARBs have nothing to do with fighting coronavirus infection. What is needed are antiviral meds or herbs that work on multiple levels:
- Block the receptor on ACE2 so the spike protein of novel CoA cannot attach
- Stop the endocytosis of the virus into the cell
- Stop/slow viral replication with in the cell.
- Activation of host defense systems
- Many other strategies: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25108320
Hi, anne, are you in Scotland? Another country on my bucket list.
My plan is to double glove the thin laytex type gloves and cary the disinfecting wet wipes in a plastic baggie. I will use the wet wipes to rub the gloved hands after I have been in a public place, before touching vehicle and house door knobs or keys. I haven’t completely figured out the routine, yet. After getting in the vehicle, I will remove mask, eye protection and wipe with wet wipes, then remove outer gloves to avoid contaminating steering wheel. Carry garbage bag to put contaminated items in. It’s going to be complicated. I suppose I need one set of clothes in the house and a removable set to wear in public. I live in a rural area with not much people contact and I am preparing to mainly stay home. Going to be complicated.
Hi. Here in New Zealand mainstream media was running with 2.1% worked out buy dividing deaths by total confirmed.
But given the lag between symptoms and death I came up with 10%
Today in mainstream news "An analysis, published in The Lancet medical journal, of the first 99 patients treated for the coronavirus at the city’s Jinyintan Hospital shows how differently the virus can impact people. "
It noted just under half had a connection to the food market.
More importantly it reports that 11 of them died
Regards hamish
Dtrammel
You are spot on here. The model is irrelevant, be it an ANN a RNN or structural equation modeling.
If a model is trained on artificial data. It will predict artificial results. All these models seek to detect and predict patterns in data. If the data is off, so are the predictions
The case in Wisconsin might be worth some attention. First news reports mentioned that the “patient who visited the University of Wisconsin-Madison University Hospital” was confirmed to have the virus. Subsequent news reports avoid mentioning this fact and, instead, refer to the location as Dane County.
Wisconsin media is notorious for its lack of investigative reporting and for keeping facts from the general public. Very little information about this patient has been released.
Could it be because the age of this patient points to identity as a student at the university? The university has a diverse population with many Asian students and resumed classes only a few weeks ago.
Colleges such as Madison would be perfect collectors and incubators for this virus. Dorms force close contact among young people who may not be as cautious as the general populace.
If Wisconsin was really interested in protecting its citizens, then maybe the news should be about education and preventative measures available at its universities rather than hiding details from the public.
The Wisconsin case is an adult woman who recently traveled to China, not a student per the Dane County-Madison Health Department’s statement 2/6. 4-new-patients-tested-for-coronavirus-in-wisconsin-results-pending