My day is fairly balanced even in this new paradigm. I work in the garden…practice guitar…still run my construction company…and do my Internet PP reading and responding in small spurts. We even did a social distance happy hour with chairs set 2 meters apart on the porch of a house I’m building. We had 5 people being very cautious but eager to share thoughts.
I have noticed you post a lot…Maybe some physical activity might take some of your stress away. Sew masks? Grow sprouts? Target practice? Jogging or working out? Too much computer time is not healthy. And I agree with Dryam2000…about focusing on others.
Hi Wildtravel:
Your calculation of the number of potential dead is a bit off. 
We all make mistakes like this, but such mistakes must also be corrected. There are about 7.5 billion people on the planet. If 3.4% of them die because of the coronavirus, then that is about 265 million, not 265 billion, which would be many more people than actually live on the planet.
I live in the Czech Republic. Yes, the mandatory mask wearing IS a good thing and people (at least, the ones I see from my window) ARE doing it, which is great. However, there has not been a noticeable decrease in the curve as yet - if that is to happen, it’s expected sometime towards the end of this week. There is very much a ‘can do’ spirit among the populace but we’re also seeing a lot of hospital/nursing home infections and lots of crying from various parties about the same lack of PPE that we’re hearing about from everywhere. And this in spite of the fact that CR has had a number of direct cargo flights from China in the past week bringing in massive quantities of said PPE - even sending some on to Italy and Spain.
So, yeah, I’m cautiously optimistic but no more. The country is also trialling a Singapore-style ‘intelligent quarantine’, aka. contact tracing by means of mobile phone + bank debit card tracking. The aim is to roll this out across the country after Easter in the hope of loosening some of the more draconian restrictions that have been put in place. Fingers crossed for this. I don’t know why more countries aren’t just copying these best practices; I mean, it’s not like you’re going to get taken to court for plagiarism, is it?!
Here is a link to an excellent discussion with an expert from South Korea about masks. The whole video is worth listening to. I strongly recommend the part about the Surgeon General and the WHO. Start at 16 minutes in and go to 19 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU
Thank you for the solid information!
This chart is shows the day over day growth in the number of confirmed cases ex-China. The center line is at the previous average of 17% per day and the dotted red lines are approximate 99% confidence limits. The rate of growth is defiantly slowing with the last 9 days below average and falling.
Your math is correct, IF you actually know the REAL amount of UV-C radiation your light source is creating. This has nothing to do with the rated Wattage of the bulb used.
For example: A PHILIPS PL-L 36W/4P TUV bulb is rated at 36 Watts. However, the actual HV-C output of this bulb is only 12 Watts. The variables in the math for calculating dose, and kill times, is based on the 12 Watt figure, not the 36 Watt.
Usually, the radiation output for any HV-C light source is measured via an HV-C detection meter, placed one Meter away from the bulb. This is a standard distance used by most dose charts. Plus, a bulb does not have a constant output of HV-C radiation and may be effected by variation in temperature of the bulb and the age of the bulb.
Typically, an influenza virus requires a dose of 6,000 to kill 90.9% of them. A 12 Watt HV-C output @ one Meter distance, will kill it in about 50 seconds. The effects of such radiation accumulate for the virus, so repeated shorter bursts of such radiation will accrue growing damage within in the virus, until enough is absorbed to inactivate it.
Additionally, a partially damaged virus, which suffered too short a radiation time, will often be able to repair its RNA damage to become active again. In this case, the virus is impaired, and not killed. But, such repair takes time, during which the virus may again be subject to additional HV-C radiation, due to air circulation, which brings it back into the range of the HV-C source, like may happen withing a HVAC system, using HV-C filters.
Interesting interview with a biotech venture capitalist
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/30/biotech-vc-bob-nelsen-called-it-right-on-the-coronavirus-now-he-has-thoughts-on-therapeutics-and-masks/
Something for Chris, (and the number crunchers)
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/
One thing that stood out to me, “Is the virus in fecal matter more easily aerosolized?”
A study by virologist Ke Lan of Wuhan University and his colleagues found that “rare” does not mean “never,” however. They took 35 air samples at two hospitals as well as public areas in Wuhan, where the Covid-19 outbreak apparently started. They found no coronavirus in intensive care areas where Covid-19 patients were being treated, in general patient rooms, in hallways, or outside the hospitals. But coronavirus aerosols were found near patients’ toilets in Wuchang Fangcang Field Hospital. That wasn’t a total shock: Receptors for coronavirus exist not only in the airways but also in the gastrointestinal tract, so cells there can become infected, shedding virus into fecal material. The paper, posted to a preprint site, has not been peer-reviewed.https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.08.982637v1
One puzzling outbreak, with 329 cases, occurred at a Hong Kong apartment complex whose residents had not been in close contact with each other. A 2014 analysis concluded that “airborne spread was the most likely explanation, and the SARS coronavirus could have spread over a distance of 200 meters,” or about 600 feet, apparently starting with a SARS patient who had diarrhea. The 329 Hong Kong cases, another analysis concluded, suggest that although SARS was primarily spread by droplets, “to a much limited degree [it was also spread] by aerosols.” The aerosolization likely originated “from malfunctioning sewers in the building.”
For scenario B, It seems that someone who can do the math could compare current infection rates with the exponential curves. Seems by definition as the herd immunity increases you fall off the exponential rate. It would be interesting to see the inflection points.
that’s hilarious
Chris suggested in his most recent video that he places his N95 in the sun. According to the inventor of the fabric, this destroys them! https://www.sages.org/n-95-re-use-instructions/. “When sterilizing N95 masks, be wary of using UV light–keep N95 masks away from UV light / sunlight. N95 masks are degraded by UV light because it damages the electrostatic charges in the polypropylene material. It is unclear how long the masks can be exposed to UV light before they are ineffective.”
Since this is the first multi-media pandemic I think we got this wrong by calling this a “virus”, aka a runny nose. Most people did not know what a corona virus is, so they were told it is a bit like flu -but it might be worse. Consider what would have happened if, from the beginning, they had been told it was a “plague” - a bit like bubonic plague, only it is a bit worse. Then you might have seen more people wearing masks! Marketing terminology is SO important. Chris, thank you for your brilliant, fact-led reviews.
Interesting read, though the temperature numbers in the link are off from the study we have read. Still the indication that UV light degrades the electrostatic charge (one of three methods a mask uses to filter) is interesting. I wonder is he has any specific studies that show the measure it decreases.
I wonder if the salt saturation method we’ve discussed could recharge the electro static charge. If UV doesn’t do physical damage to the mask material then that is a possible way to fix the charge damage.
I also disagree with his assertion of just 3 day disinfection with time. The data is all over the place in different studies but the low end is at or above 3 days. Be better to allow more time, as much as you can but at least 5-6 if not the full 9.
Good point about the metal in an oven being hotter than the air circulating. The air is probably cooler by 5-10F. Having the used mask inside of a paper bag should cut down on that difference. As well as making it safer to handle contaminated masks.
It comes down to this though, is a slightly degraded N95 mask better than a cotton DIY mask?
Thanks for the link TWA.
Ok, second funny of the day. Would seeing this walking around, make you stand 6 feet from everyone?
I’ve been spending way too much time in front of the computer. Though the last week the weather was poor. Today its nice and sunny though. Supposed to be that way all week too.
So this week its work on the computer from wake up (7-8am) until noon. Then a walk around the block. Followed by working in the garden to get it ready until about 5pm. 5-6pm sit on the front porch and read a book. 6-7pm animal shelter duties and shopping if needed. 7pm back on the computer for a few hours.
This is basically a steam application, should work fine. probably a bit less destructive than boiling.
We are aware of this , its been discussed many times on the forum. We also are aware of the electrostatic properties of the fabric… We still need to sterilize, but must choose that is most convenient and least destructive… Soaking in solution, or washing is problem… heating is a problem… UV lights and ozone are all destructive… and now the sun is too? well if you have to destroy a virus… I would say it has to be inherently destructive in some capacity… Only other option is time… and I believe that too - if given enough time - would effect the electrostatic properties.
Amazing. Our medical leaders are spineless followers of the official narrative they have been told to tow. Apparently now, wearing a face mask INCREASES your risk for catching the virus , as fiddling with it supposedly makes you touch your face more. How can people with years of study at university say such stupid things?
So we are being told: this virus spreads primarily via droplets coming from your mouth. Apparently, staying 6 feet apart makes it safe to go outside and intermingle with others. Not sure where 6 feet came from. No mention about if the wind blowing your direction increases that minimum safe distance. And, a mask makes no impact on the spread of those droplets??? What? And, we are told that masks act primarily to reduce transmission FROM infected people to others, not to protect healthy people from catching it. Ummm, aren’t we all being told that infected people regularly shed the virus before showing symptoms? But remember people, wearing a mask is ineffective!!!