zerohedge discussing some studies published in the lancet.
Another alarming finding from the study: The mortality rate among the group studied was 11%. While that number is well above the 2%-3% official death toll, other epidemiologists have suggested that the true death toll for the virus is closer to 11%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/men-more-prone-coronavirus-infection-women-study-finds
more men than women affected, 67 to 32 (2:1 ratio), but this doesn't necessarily account for the population present at the wuhan market out of the 99 from what i can gather
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext
Findings
Of the 99 patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia, 49 (49%) had a history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market. The average age of the patients was 55·5 years (SD 13·1), including 67 men and 32 women. 2019-nCoV was detected in all patients by real-time RT-PCR. 50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases. Patients had clinical manifestations of fever (82 [83%] patients), cough (81 [82%] patients), shortness of breath (31 [31%] patients), muscle ache (11 [11%] patients), confusion (nine [9%] patients), headache (eight [8%] patients), sore throat (five [5%] patients), rhinorrhoea (four [4%] patients), chest pain (two [2%] patients), diarrhoea (two [2%] patients), and nausea and vomiting (one [1%] patient). According to imaging examination, 74 (75%) patients showed bilateral pneumonia, 14 (14%) patients showed multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity, and one (1%) patient had pneumothorax. 17 (17%) patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and, among them, 11 (11%) patients worsened in a short period of time and died of multiple organ failure.
the lancet also seems to suggest that preliminary findings are that the incubation period is 3-6 days.
9,821 cases now. Hubei has updated figures. Oddly it’s not made it to arcgis.com
CFR should move towards 20% as all the hospital ventilators get taken… If you use the official numbers CFR is 54% for the last few days (deaths/(deaths+recovered)). Hopefully no one has time to update the recovered numbers. It’s still pretty close if you take dead / (cases 2 weeks ago). Bad times.
Basically the WHO said this is a grave issue (without any specific science behind it – like R0 estimates, mortality, or latency period) but hey China is doing such a great job, that Xi is on the ball, it was great being there, I love China.
Then more damaging – there should be no restriction on global travel or trade, and if people put them on we are going to confront them and ask them to take them down, because it’s our job to protect China’s economy and the economy of the world, and if a lot of people have to get sick and die to do that we’re on board.
Totally pathetic!!! They don’t care about the spread of this disease in any meaningful way nor are they going to do anything that costs any significant amount of money – please just wash your hands and hope you don’t die.
Disgraceful. And Stocks loved it. Straight up from the press conference onward.
The fourth Turning is all about losing faith in institutions. The WHO came along and put a foot on their own back and kicked themselves down the stairs.
You are right, that was the most disgraceful, maddening thing I've seen in a long time. And that's saying something. [Note: I've got an update video about it coming out soon....in about a half hour]
The WHO seemed to forget that that their middle initial is an H not a T. It was all about protecting the economy and trade.
Then, magically, stocks rocketed higher on the news that the WHO was going to cave to China's economic and political interests, presumably helped along by a lot more Fed money.
In case anybody has any lingering doubts about the WHO, here's definitive proof that they are China's lapdog:
Taiwan Picks Up International Support After Being Barred from World Health AssemblyThe World Health Organization has declined to invite Taiwan for the third consecutive year at the behest of Beijing.
Taiwan will find itself sidelined during the upcoming annual health summit of the World Health Organization (WHO), to be held in Geneva in late May, for the third straight year due to objections from China.
So the fact that the WHO is now riddled with political drama is of no surprise. The Ethiopian dude at the head of it has a long history of shady activity and rumors about squashing health statistics to bolster certain other political aims.
But you'd think with so much on the line, even the most corrupt of organizations could rally and do something right.
Nope.
So here we are. The spread of this virus is all but guaranteed anyway, but now it's going to come faster, which means harder.
I wish that wasn't the case. This isn't a drill.
I'm legit angry at the WHO right now. The Fourth Turning arrives. Trust is lost. Into the widening gyre...
Hi, I shot you a private message on some easy ways to have food for a long time on a budget. Fellow ozark plateau guy by birth. Check it out, good luck!!!
Matt
It occurs to me that WHO knows there’s nothing they can doto stop the spread of nCoV (with longish incubation which includes asymptomatic transmission possibility). Short of locking the whole world down for 2-4 months, this virus is going to go just about everywhere.
And locking the whole world down for 2-4 months simply isn’t going to happen. So they’re conceding the field to the virus, doing math behind the scenes (and evidently getting a number of dead that is less than utterly catastrophic, ie “acceptable losses”), and deciding preserving the economy to the extent possible within the context of these events is the thing to do.
Plan accordingly… and assume you’ll have to (mostly) fend for yourselves in the healthcare department. I think the rest of the economy will be BAU to the extent possible…
VIVA – Sager
Hi Tim,
AZ still has only 1 AZ state U student confirmed case, with concerns re: state health/university officials’ lack of transparency to assist in tracking, preventive efforts. However, there are “several” suspected cases under review by the CDC. https://news.yahoo.com/health-officials-several-samples-coronavirus-012754410.html
If it were me and I absolutely had to travel, I’d take all prudent precautions as documented and discussed throughout the PP website. Stay well and safe!
Agent 007, the video is over an hour and a half, so I did a quick jump through, that is until I hit about 27:00. That was shocking, the video shows Chinese health authorities, physically locking people into their homes in an apartment building with chains and bars across their door, to prevent them from leaving.
OMG if that is actually happening then the Chinese are losing the fight on this thing.
If they let the ponzi scheme economy crash there would probably be more deaths than letting the flu go rampant. Since it isn’t likely to be contained now anyways, they seem to be trying to preserve the ponzi scheme if they can. We’ll see how that goes. Never underestimate the Fed’s ability to print money. I shoulda bought the dip today.
In reply to Sandpuppy, lack of availability of testing kits limits the number of confirmed cases now, and eventually it will limit the number of reported deaths from coronavirus (if you can’t be a confirmed case, then your death won’t count in the total). This might not be a “strategy,” rather a reality of how fast factories can come up with kits and distribute them to hospitals.
The whole use of testing kits thing baffles me. The world reported 3000 or so new cases today. This is out of how many tested? How many were negative? How many of those people will have to be tested again in 1-2 weeks when they are re-exposed? The video with the Chinese man in Wuhan has him saying that 10,000 kits were delivered to Wuhan, so each doctor sees maybe 100 patients per day and evidently only test the ones with an abnormal CT scan. Somehow in spite of all that (also the difficulty people are having in accessing the hospital) confirmed cases are still running ahead of Chris’s disaster projections.
I found this on the uncensored subreddit:
"Understand, China's newspaper "People's Daily" says China's current nCoV nucleic acid testing capability is approximately 2,000 tests a day. Notice how close the confirmed infected increase per day is to 2,000. I believe the true number is still on track with the exponential prediction.
Mrs. Bohall, your story is my exact story down to the family dynamics! One thing I’d recommend to extend your food supply if you are in a situation where you can’t stock up for a long period of time is intermittent fasting (for adults only not children). I’ve been eating one meal a day for 2 years and have never felt better. Your body gets used to it after 2-3 weeks and it becomes a breeze. I will never go back to eating all day long again. EVER. I also haven’t been sick in those 2 years when I used to routinely get sick several times every winter. Even when everyone in my house is sick, I never get it anymore. Anyway, just a thought and what I plan on doing. God bless!!
Chris, it is my understanding that what creates the higher contagion risk for this coronavirus is that the infected individual may be contagious but not manifest symptoms for up to 14 days. It is the current policy of the CDC that there is no current evidence of that. I’ve read the CDPH report that they are detaining, testing and isolating individuals for only 3 days upon entering the country, per my understanding that that is how long it takes (72 hours) to get the test results back. I don’t know at what virus titer concentration that the test becomes positive. If it is indeed true that an individual IS contagious before symptomatic, isn’t the screening worthless and putting Californians and the nation at risk?? Thank you.
Excellent article, PaulJam–thank you! I’m reposting here in case others missed in in this long thread.
You said, “This is a fascinating read about the ineptness of the response of the Chinese government. Classic science vs politics.” http://chinamediaproject.org/2020/01/27/dramatic-actions/
What a brave young man to go out at risk to his health and report (at risk to his freedom, livelihood and who knows what else) to the world a first hand account from inside the hospitals.
His idea of counting the number of infected Japanese on that evacuation flight was brilliant. It’s certainly not an unbiased sample but it might be the best we have:
3 infected / 207 passengers ~ 1.5%. Multiply that by the population of Wuhan and you have 165,000 people as an educated guess for the actual infection levels.
The California Health Alert Network ( CAHAN ) is a web-based communications and information system available 24/7 to link critical health and emergency response partners to strengthen state and local preparedness. [paraphrased from CAHAN website]
Here are concise participant notes from a 1/28/20 meeting (by phone) re: nCoV screening and treatment procedures, health care facility capacity and supplies surveys to assess gaps, employee health and monitoring, communications with patients and their families, coordination with providers, health depts. and CDC.
In Q&A, it was noted that some facilities received notices of PPE shortages; and that private providers were seeing/referring some patients (re: nCoV) to hospitals which is “overwhelming nearby medical centers”.
Source, FluTrackers
As mentioned in your videos, we can’t divide the number of current fatalities by the current number of infected to get the CFR because it takes about a week from the onset of symptoms before death. Is there a better way to estimate the true CFR?
(200 Fatalities (Jan 30) - 25 Fatalities (Jan 23)) / 800 infected (Jan 23) = 21.8% CFR ?
This seems a bit high.
