Coronavirus: What We Can Say Publicly & What We Can't

News & Current Events Public News & Current Events
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Coronavirus scare at NSW school as 15th case confirmed in Australia

There are concerns that hundreds of school children in NSW could have been exposed to coronavirus after a year one student attended class after returning from mainland China. Despite advice from the NSW state government that students who had recently travelled to mainland China should voluntarily stay home for two weeks, the student attended class at Oran Park Public School within the advised 14-day quarantine period in Sydney’s southwest. https://au.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-scare-at-nsw-school-as-15th-case-confirmed-in-australia-200158603.html =====================================

Govt. allows shorter school year amid coronavirus outbreak (Korea)

The ministry has advised schools to prepare alternative academic courses, such as online education material, to make up for the reduction in days. As of Thursday, 592 schools across the country, including 450 kindergartens, have temporarily closed to prevent the further spread of the contagious disease. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200207000597 ==================================

Coronavirus updates: 8 more Americans diagnosed on cruise ship as death toll hits 638

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coronavirus-updates-8-more-americans-diagnosed-cruise-ship-death-toll-n1132136 ===================================

Fifth suspected coronavirus case reported in San Diego

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-02-06/san-diego-hospitals-work-to-reassure-public-as-they-await-test-results-fo ========================================

China grows isolated as airlines cancel more than 50,000 flights amid coronavirus epidemic

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronavirus-china-becomes-increasingly-isolated-as-airlines-pull-out.html ===================================

Hong Kong shoppers snap up rice and noodles as coronavirus fears mount

“Everyone’s snatching whatever they can get. I don’t even know what’s going on,” said a 72-year-old woman surnamed Li as she clutched two bags of toilet rolls. The government has condemned “malicious rumors” about shortages which have led to panic buying “and even chaos”, while supermarkets have put limits on the amount of products, including antiseptics, that people can buy. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-hongkong-supermarkets/hong-kong-shoppers-snap-up-rice-and-noodles-as-coronavirus-fears-mount-idUSKBN2010Q6 =====================================

Lifeblood of Amazon merchants threatened as coronavirus infects Chinese workers

The entrepreneurs are among the 1 million-plus Amazon sellers whose livelihoods depend on factory workers in China, where the coronavirus has sickened more than 30,000 and killed more than 600 people. Their predicament foreshadows the risk Amazon sellers face if China’s fast-moving epidemic results in worker shortages or prolonged factory closures. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-amazon-com/lifeblood-of-amazon-merchants-threatened-as-coronavirus-infects-chinese-workers-idUSKBN20114P ==================================== Average hospital stay for patients infected with the novel coronavirus: 10 days The mean hospital stay for over 500 discharged patients infected with the novel coronavirus was around ten days, said Guo Yanhong, an official for China's National Health Commission, at a press conference on Friday. The analysis revealed that antiviral therapy and traditional Chinese medicine are effective in treatment, said Guo. https://www.cgtn.com/special/Battling-the-novel-coronavirus-What-we-know-so-far-.html
14:33, 07-Feb-2020
Pangolins may be intermediate hosts of novel coronavirus: researchers
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Yes, worry about coronavirus: Those saying it’s just not that deadly are missing a few key points

The current best estimates place the mortality of coronavirus between 1% and 3% with modern medical care. This only sounds low; in fact, it is a very high number. Seasonal influenza kills about 0.1% of patients with the virus, which translates to roughly 650,000 deaths around the world every year. Coronavirus is more infectious than the flu, and possibly a lot more infectious. If the current numbers are to be believed, it is at least 10 times as lethal as the flu today, which puts it close to the virulence of the influenza strain that killed 50 million people in 1918. Despite medical advances, the world is far more crowded, and hence more vulnerable, than it was in 1918. https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-yes-worry-about-coronavirus-20200206-ane5vluupjblbnr4sbvrquuxqy-story.html ===============================      

Beijing Braces For Coronavirus Cases As Lunar Holiday Ends

"Based on the experience in pandemics of 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic, studies show that school closures and traffic restrictions can successfully delay the onset of the pandemic peaks, but it does not mean you will slow down or decrease the magnitude of the [pandemic]," said Yang. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/06/802257287/beijing-braces-for-coronavirus-cases-as-lunar-holiday-ends
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I am thinking of going with a baggy, hoodie shirt and baggy sweat pants that can be worn over other clothes and easily removable when I get home. Hijabs may become a popular item of women’s wear.

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Any reports of Wuhan flu in Vancouver? Somewhere just south of 40% of that large city is of Asian descent. So far I have seen no reported cases there. The high susceptibility of ethnic Asian individuals may be proven or disproven in that city.

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Here we are, right where we thought we’d be. It’s Thursday, February 6th. Trump’s market action associated with State of the Union and acquittal overpowered all risk. After Trump’s press conference today, this ‘victory lap’ trend should begin to close. Technically, today’s stock action marks a complete retracement back to prior market highs of Dow 29,348 from January 17th. Apple is back near prior highs. Even Alibaba is trading into the $220’s. Trump was able to take a victory lap without any panic days in the market. Again, right where we thought we’d be. His political victory is assured by the market scoreboard.
What comes next? China has quarantined more than 60 million people. Out of nowhere, President Xi voluntarily cut tariffs on U.S. products. You think he did that because of 566 coronavirus deaths? 566 deaths is far fewer than the seasonal flu. Yum brands, the owner of Taco Bell, KFC and Pizza Hut just warned that coronavirus will be a significant headwind for 2020 earnings. Yum operates 6,300 KFC’s and 2,200 Pizza Hut’s in China. Kate Spade and Coach just closed a majority of its 366 stores in China. Toyota is hunting for alternative auto part suppliers outside of China. Adidas is closing 500 of its own stores and 11,500 outlets. Apple closed all 42 stores. It’s been two weeks since any AirPods have been manufactured. Perhaps most importantly, Foxconn has stopped production of iPhones until February 10th and is likely to extend the shutdown into March. Tesla closed its 24 stores. Starbucks is closing stores. You think the Chinese economy is being brought to its knees because of 566 deaths?
We have reason to believe the Chinese government is severely under-reporting coronavirus data. In a sad story, WHO is confirming that the Chinese doctor who tried to sound the alarm back in December just passed away after contracting the virus from a patient. Dr. Li was hospitalized on January 12th. As evidence of censorship, Dr. Li was summoned by Wuhan police to sign a reprimand letter in which he was accused of ‘spreading rumors online’ and ‘severely disrupting social order.’ Turns out, Dr. Li was right. Eight other doctors in Wuhan were reportedly arrested for ‘spreading rumors’ as well. Last Saturday, Tencent, one of China's largest tech companies, published data showing 154,023 were infected and 24,589 had died. This calculates to a devastating 16% mortality rate. Tencent's webpage titled 'Epidemic Situation Tracker' was quickly updated to reflect the government figures of 14,446 infected and 304 dead following the alleged leak of information. Watchers have identified 3 such leaks, believed to be coming from a whistleblower with access to real data. It’s also being reported crematoriums are burning hundreds of bodies 24/7 after China banned funerals for those with coronavirus. At this point it’s difficult to know what the real count is. The only thing worse than no data is false data.
If the Tencent data is true, then this coronavirus outbreak will face a reckoning. After Trump’s market-infused victory lap, not one dollar of pandemic risk is priced in. Heading into the weekend, investors should begin watching for early signals of a downtrend from the double top at Dow 29,348. Supply chains are grinding to a halt. Companies are issuing warnings. While there’s much we don’t know concerning the outbreak, we do know that economic activity is being impacted negatively.
The other day we referred to Hans Christian Andersen’s timeless classic ‘The Emperor’s New Clothes’. In the tale, no one dare question the invisible fabric for fear of getting fired from their position, being called stupid, or incompetent…when in reality there were no clothes at all. The emperor went so far as to parade before his subjects in his new ‘clothes’ until finally a child cries out, ‘But he isn’t wearing anything at all!’ Throughout time, mankind has proven gullible to the influence of propaganda. What’s unfolding in China is extremely dangerous; in this case, coverups could cost millions of lives. We truly do not know whether to believe the official Chinese government statistics or to believe the private reports. If private reports are true, then buying puts at Dow 29,348 represents the opportunity of a lifetime as the shutdown of China’s supply chain triggers the economy into a global depression. Don’t listen to what they’re saying, watch what they’re doing.
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Actually yes i posted a screenshot in the forums. I’m not really sure where a good central place is to collect all this info and discussion because it seems to be located at whatever article is current on this website.
I’d rather not just post it on the front page. It wouldn’t be that hard to track who this person is if somebody really puts in the effort and we have to be mindfull of the chinese censors.
Link to the forums:
https://peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/coronavirus-wuhan-forum/page/5/

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Brushhog,
You are right to note the rather steady number of cases being reported. The spin for this is that the outbreak is stabilizing and slowing down. Maybe…
However, the cap on cases is more likely a function of just how many samples that they are processing during any given day, not how many new cases that there really are. What should be reported is the total number of tests being done every day and their outcomes. If you test 3,500 people a day and nearly all are positive for the virus that tells you that your case counts are not at all indicative of reality. If you are testing 30,000 and 3,000 are positive, with the number dropping over time, that’s an encouraging sign. That said, I saw somewhere that China has a new facility coming online today (?) that can test 10,000 samples a day. It will be interesting to see if the number of ‘cases’ suddenly jumps up each day.
Another reality check is that the supposed 31,000+ cases would only represent ~0.002% of China’s population. The deaths so far are a mere 0.000046%, or <0.5 per million inhabitants.
However, despite this minor level of realized impacts, China rapidly has shut down >50% of its entire economy for an extended holiday of unsure duration and, with the lockdown of Guangzhou (15 million people) and the rest of Guandong Province added to the other provinces already being quarantined, that’s ~400,000,000 people under effective house arrest, >28% of China’s population. That’s more people than the entire combined population of the US and Canada.
It seems unlikely that they would be doing this if they weren’t extremely fearful of this disease causing much more catastrophic outcomes than their quarantining activities. This might also help explain why the rest of the world has shunned China like it has, well, the plague.
We are being told, don’t worry this is all under control. We should all apparently be celebrating by buying stocks if the ““markets”” are to be believed. It seems that disease, death and supply line disruptions for a ‘just in time’ global economic system are good for business! Who knew?

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Going around the paywall that so many research papers get sucked into.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/z3b3v5/archivists-are-bypassing-paywalls-to-share-studies-about-coronaviruses
Wonder what gems are there.

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Quote
“It’s more like Trump is a kind of angry Chauncey Gardner who benefits from intellectuals’ reading deeply — too deeply — into his outbursts.”
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/trump-chauncey-gardener/
:smiling_face:

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https://globalnews.ca/news/6517559/bc-top-doctor-health-minister-coronavirus-update/
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/canadians-wuhan-plane_ca_5e3c8737c5b6b70886fcc4ac
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/five-things-to-know-about-coronavirus-in-b-c
Vancouver is definitely a place to watch closely with its significant Asian population as well as being a major transportation hub and port city. The city of Richmond, which is basically a suburb of Vancouver has a derogatory nickname “Hongcouver” derived from its very large Asian population. It will be disaster if this virus gets going in this area…
Jan

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SP-

Don’t listen to what they’re saying, watch what they’re doing.
Yes exactly. The US has declared a 14-day quarantine for the first time in 50 years. Our intel agencies almost certainly own China's comms system. Since the CCP knows what the facts are on the ground, so does the NSA, and as a result, so does Trump. Trump's response: to quarantine all traffic from his good pal Xi, with whom he just signed a trade agreement literally days earlier. What are the odds? China whines, but Trump just shrugs it off and says nothing. Really, he says nothing other than "thoughts and prayers" (more or less). I believe the market will figure this out - but only after we get a serious number of infections outside the PRC. I think that the timeframe is - perhaps - 3 weeks. Well-connected Big Money will act in advance of the big move, however. They will get the inside scoop from within the administration. Once they get the story, they will slowly sneak off to the exits, so as not to startle the horses. Money will flow to the safe havens. Slowly, at first. I really think that's what we are seeing right now.
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Hi Kunga, Hemp oil containing cbd seems to work beautifully for many people for a wide variety of ailments including serious stuff like concussion injuries. For others, maybe it’s not a miracle drug. I think some quality control is in order for the use of hemp oil. First it should be organically grown without pesticides. Secondly, the ‘full-spectrum’ product that contains a wide range of cannabinoids seems to be more effective than just highly purified cbd. they call this the entourage effect. Additionally, it should be tested by HPLC so you know the dosage being taken and to what extent it may or may not contain psychoactive THC. Also beware of any product that was extracted using hydrocarbons like pentane. My understanding is that ethanol extraction is highly effective and relatively safe.

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I have a possible explanation. Remember we are not modeling the infections, but the detected infections. The map is not the terrain. It may be spreading exponentially but detected quadratically. The quadratic equation is a limited growth model, and detecting nCov may be limited by the amount of test kits available, the number of doctors, beds, etc. I would say a quadratic fit for infections is an indication of an overwhelmed (limited) healthcare system.

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I too have wondered the reason for the slow and steady data out of China, as you mention a good theory that # tested is capped each day. If China is artificially lowering reports I would still expect they would keep this slow trajectory (vs. shocking people with a data spike due to increased testing capacity). The developing Cruise ship data represents the largest case count outside of China. With this, it might offer the best large scale controlled set of data on Coronavirus patient (minus the Chinese data manipulation). Granted the conditions may be unique vs. typical land based (ie; Transmission rates higher due to close confinement).

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The Japanese cruise ship should provide accurate statistics on OUTCOMES. In two weeks we should get more accurate idea of severity, death rate and recovery outcomes.
It would be nice to find ethnic information, rather than citizenship. Parts of the US are refusing to provide this obviously useful information (especially important if you turn out to be in a high-risk ethnic group). They claim it would be racist.

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Current date given to passengers for disembarking is 2/19. Of course very dynamic situation. It is suggested that new cases could push this date further…
https://youtu.be/tzR2G0WOvww

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As far as our focus on the official case numbers, deaths etc…
Garbage in, Garbage Out.
China is literally nailing/welding people in their homes…do you think they are testing those folks everyday?
The avg Chinese has figured out that the “Hospitals” are overwhelmed, under resourced and essentially staging areas for the crematoriums. They are hardy and pragmatic people and have decided that its better to self administer help and / or die at home. That decision was made for the folks nailed into their homes.
China’s economy has come to a standstill. Xi’s whole future depends on the economy but he has to appear to be a viable global citizen while China is the epi-center of the virus.
My guess is that once the virus is out of control everywhere…Xi will relax the severe quarantines and China will go back to establishing a new normal (even if that means a horrific new normal in terms of public health…life must go on).
Given how many Chinese travelled while infectious…its unstoppable. The folks that don’t get it are the same folks that don’t understand that the Lottery is just a tax on people that can’t grasp conceptual math and statistics. I keep explaining this to folks and they don’t seem to be able to grasp that a asymptomatic , highly contagious virus thats contagious before, during and after the patient feels better (if the patient feels better) is literally unstoppable, sans a vaccine, natural morphing of virus to be less contagious or a radical change in the Ro as it goes into other gene pools and eco-systems . I assume this is possible as the Chinese people density is super high and their sanitary systems are not always the best .
I assume world leaders know this and the game is to let the virus spread so everyone’s blameless and the quarantines’ come down to keep all the global the economies on life support until this thing burns itself out or we find effective treatments.
In the meantime, its going to get worse before it can get better.
God Bless everyone. I am praying for you all (whether you believe in God or not…He believes in you).

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Just a couple of headlines I grabbed:
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/trending/coronavirus-confirmed-cases-aboard-cruise-ship-triples-61-including-11-us-citizens/U5ZDIEZBQZHNZH5PVJDOVYELFM/?fbclid=IwAR3OyRcZajjqWSfvBZ2A5qjUjdrqGvl9j-d3Tf7fKjsg64O0DVW2IFXZHuQ
https://www.foxnews.com/media/coronavirus-new-jersey-cruise-ship-chinese-nationals?fbclid=IwAR3M6uSfOcPbBRI5cvcvHOdntexkH1aIQb-yajS-TlFda1l0G5xtsFH9zrU
 

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I agree 100%. These cruise ships are going to give us the best data, and should be watched closely. Not only will we finally have real numbers to work with, but they are testing large numbers of at risk people, not just the self selected sampling that shows up to the hospital. We’ll finally get an idea of how many very mild cases are likely out there. It may turn out that the actual number of infections is astronomically high, but rate of serious complications and death is actually quite low. Also agree that racial data would be interesting. The cruise ships could finally settle that debate.

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The dumb money is always the last to know. Why anyone would think otherwise is beyond me. The game is rigged so the house always wins

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Perfect storm of bad nomenclature and bad typography colliding….ACE II
The chart taken from this study was used in a past post to illustrate the fact Chinese and Japanese may be at increased risk for nCoV due to the high percentage of ACE II genotype. I could see immediately this was a misrepresentation of the what the chart is trying to illustrate.
This chart represents the frequency of genotypes for common insertion/deletion mutation found in the ACE gene. It is also called ACE ins/del, or ACE I/D or ACE II/DD. I = insertion, D=deletion. ACE is Angiotensin I Converting Enzyme, it is most definitely NOT ACE2 which is Angiotensin I Converting Enzyme 2. They are two different genes/enzymes. If you look at the original paper is very clear this chart has nothing to do at all about ACE2. It is unfortunate that two Capital ”I”s for Insertion look like roman number 2/II. Anyway, a genotype in this instance is simply calling the possible combinations of two alleles at a particular location in the genome for ACE that you can inherit from your parents. You will either be II, ID or DD. (You have some extra bits or you are missing them: you absolutely still have the ACE gene, it is just some people have a few more lines of code, if you will.)
The original paper here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18208631
The next chart appeared to come from Pinterest with no reference. I tried searching Google Scholar with the 6 rsid#s numbers and did not get a single hit for all six appearing together in a paper. These rsid#s indeed represent mutations in the ACE2 gene (the one that is receptor for the nCoV spike protein). These mutations may represent some alteration in how ACE2 is expressed, but no one has systematically studied them as to how they effect the functionality and expression of ACE2 across all populations.
In addition, it is also clear from auick review of the literature that there does not exist even a single putative functional variant in ACE2 at this time. Basically that means scientists don’t understand how mutations in this gene effect its activity and/or expressions: either through altered mRNA, deletion of a transcription or repression site, changes to enzyme stability, changes to its catalyitc site. In short, mutations effect enzymes in many different ways. The vast majority of mutations to do not effect enzymes at all. At this stage of research, it is more about fine mapping of a gene locus, and genome association studies to start finding what are called “tag” single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs, that tag/or are connected to the true underlying functional variant. Even then, there can be more than one functional variant, and understanding how these in combination effect an enzyme is studied through haplotype analysis. The science for this and ACE2 is in its infancy. That Pinterest chart is meaningless in my opinion, as a population frequency chart compliled by adding up alleles from 6 mutations gives you no idea how they are effecting the activity (gain or loss or no change) to an enzyme.
I will say science is full of terrible perfect storms like this ACE2/ACE II fiasco. It is SO easy to misinterpret the language of researchers. It is like they are deliberately trying to obfuscate. Adam and Chris, I am more than happy to look at any research you would care to run my me for a second opinion. The last five years I have worked in genomic meta-research and can spot things in this area of research pretty easily. I am NOT an expert in virology, statistics, etc. etc.
Table 2. ACE II genotype frequency in different populations/countries
Country Study authors
Year of
publication
No. of
subjects
ACE II
genotype
frequency (%)
Sweden Kurland et al. 2001 59 27
Denmark Bladbjerg et al. 1999 199 23
United Kingdom Kehoe et al. 1999 386 23
United Kingdom Steeds et al. 2001 507 22
United Kingdom Narain et al. 2000 342 18
Netherland Hosoi et al. 1996 61 20
Hungary Barkai et al. 2005 120 27
Belgium Gu et al. 1994 109 19
Sorry, I cannot figure out how to add a screenshot of the mentioned chart, so I just copied some lines from the paper and pasted here…it lost its formatting! If anyone peeps out there can tell me how to add a screenshot please do so.
Thanks to Adam and Chris for their continued information scouting. It is invaluable.
Claire