We have some information about the 61 cases from the Japanese Cruise Ship:
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-51409800 The ship has passengers from 56 countries, but mostly from Japan. If the distribution of the infected follows the overall population on board (need to check that up), I don't think we can say that Asians are more prone to infection.The 61 confirmed patients are from:
- Japan: 28 people
- US: 11
- Australia, Canada: 7
- China: 3
- UK, New Zealand, Taiwan, Philippines, Argentina: 1
We all know that the numbers are all rather squishy if not fabricated completely. Probably more deaths than we are being told and definitely more infections than we know (hopefully of the mild variety). That said, just running the numbers from this site (link) you can reach some interesting conclusions.
China is currently listed as having 31,161 cases and 636 deaths. So the best happy face mortality number we can get is 636/31,161 or roughly a case fatality risk (CFR) of 2% which coincidentally is the number WHO has announced. Incidentally this death rate is about 40 times higher than that of this year’s flu!
However, the number nobody seems to talk about is the number of patients who have actually recovered. For China that number is 1541 people recovered. So in reality, of the 31,116 cases, only 2177 have been resolved as of yet by either death or recovery. Leaving 28,939 yet to be determined. Among the resolved cases the mortality would pencil out at 636/2177 = a CFR of 29%. That would be a worst case. Recoveries seem to be tracking higher faster than deaths so it shouldn’t be this high but it is certainly not 2% either. That’s a pretty big grey zone in the middle.
How about outside of China? I keep seeing speculation about how much better we will do based on very little but hope. There are currently 320 cases outside of China with only 3 deaths (counting the one in Dubai today), so 3/320 = minimum CFR of 0.9%, sounds comparatively good (only ~18 times your chance of dying from this year’s flu). However, only 22 people have recovered so 295 cases (people!) are still in limbo between recovery and death (Schrodinger’s flu…). The maximum CFR then is 3/22 = 13.6% given resolved cases to date (small numbers that can change substantially from day to day yet). That’s higher than SARS (~10%), so let’s not get too relaxed about this virus outside of China. We haven’t really proven we are doing that much better yet.
This thing not only has a long incubation time, it also seems to have a long recovery time for many. The 34 year old Chinese doctor (Dr. Li) who died today was first hospitalized on Jan 13. That’s 25 days until an unfortunately final resolution.
This will take weeks (if we can stop it), if not months or years to play out across the planet.
I was noodling around with Photoshop and came up with these two comparative charts of the Corona virus vs the typical Flu. I modeled it in a Bell curve but I’ll admit, I’m a amateur in Statistics.
As I remember my classes, you can model how spread a population’s characteristic for a specific factor is fairly accurately and from there make some predictions for future cases. An example I always use, is the height of men. Take a big enough sample and 66% of them will fall within what is termed “1 sigma”. 99% will fall within 2 sigma.
You can do all sorts of cool statistical math stuff with that. Me not know that stuff, lol.
If you have a big enough sample though, say measure 10 thousand men, and the median, or average will be real close. Measure just a dozen, not so. Especially if they happen to be the Harlem Globetrotters.
This is why Chris and others more educated than me, say we need more data to make definitive guesses as to how this crisis will shake out.
As you can see the typical flu virus we all get exposed to each year has a large portion of us who don’t get symptoms, some who get mild ones, and many who get the typical flu with coughs, aches and fevers. I couldn’t find the exact percentage, sorry.
Because so many of us have been exposed and now have some immunity, the complications and severity of the illness is pretty low.
A tiny fraction of us get what’s called “Serious Complication Rates” or SCR where the flu puts us into the hospital and probably into an ICU bed, just around 1 percent. Even smaller, is the number of us who die, called the “Case Fatality Rate” or CFR which for the typical flu is just 0.1%. These numbers Chris and others have been discussing.
Now this it what happens if you get the Corona virus. SCR rate goes way up and has been estimated at 10-20%, with the CFR of 2-3% (aka your relatives go shopping for funeral arrangements). That is fraking scary!
We don’t yet know how many people get exposed to the Corona virus and show no symptoms, how many just show mild symptoms and how many show a typical flu like illness. That will come as we get more data.
For now, you can show friends and family these graphs and say “This stuff is bad!”
Epidemiologists are estimating that at this point in an epidemic, the usual situation is that we are diagnosing 5 to 10% of the cases. So the real number is on the order of 300K cases. So the best case scenario might be CFR 600 deaths/300-600K cases or 0.1-0.2%. The worst case scenario is that China is severely undercounting the deaths, but by how much is impossible to guess at.
When I start seeing selfies of people in their masks I’ll know the End is Here.
This very detailed, researched, documented and cited report was published January 27th on Medium. The Author, Adrian Bond @realAdrianBond
has had it removed many times but people keep getting it re-posted. He proves (to me at least), that the origin of the virus is the Wuhan lab and it was created as a bioweapon, with funding, assistance and cooperation of the U.S. Department of Defense! An absolutely shocking yet fully documented chronology of Zhengli Shi, the Director of the Wuhan Lab and preeminent global researcher, that sounds like a movie script.
Is this story BS, or is it the truth that NOBODY can know about? Help me decide…
https://archive.is/04t8S
Coronavirus 2019-nCoV, Part 1_ Communist Coverup, or Pandemic Bioweapon of Mass Destruction_
I don’t think those stats refer to people’s race, so I’m not sure that it’s going to clarify in the way you hope.
‘Wartime conditions’: Official orders Wuhan round up residents with coronavirus and send them to quarantine camps
"Chinese Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, 69, announced new procedures in the city of 11 million that include going to each home and checking the temperature of all residents.
“Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Sun said on Thursday. "
"Sun ordered medical workers to go door-to-door to move any of those infected, with force, if necessary, to makeshift quarantine camps that include a convention center and other converted buildings. "
"“It must be cut off from the source,” Sun told medical workers during a tour of one of the shelters. “You must keep a close eye. Don’t miss it.” "
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/wartime-conditions-official-orders-wuhan-round-up-residents-with-coronavirus-and-send-them-to-quarantine-camps
h/t Saxplayer for posting the original NYT article here.
Dr Jennifer Nuzzo, JenniferNuzzo a scholar at the John Hopkins Center for Health Security, says it’s “near impossible” for countries to keep the virus out of their borders. In her opinion, we should stop trying to slow down the inevitable. I do not agree with her position. Your thoughts?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCZqdHyIbuY
As posted on Twitter by Faisal Aziz:
“Wuhan, Evergreen Community”
“A suspicious infected is being chased by a group of policemen. People are reluctant to go to the designated Fire God Mountain Hospital because it is like jail. You never know if you can still come back”
https://twitter.com/i/status/1225171458395136000
Just posted this in another thread before finding this thread so will pop it in here too.
Sparky1 Note: I’m not sure what to make of this incident hot on the heels of the “wartime conditions” directive to round-up the nCoV infected in China. This also coincides with the newly announced (2/2/20) “centralized isolation” and fast-track diagnosis-to-treatment imperative utilizing the newly built hospitals. It appears that the Wuqing District Prevention and Control Headquarters took issue with the “hot” fever screening, diagnosis and isolation of one case/patient and as a consequence “sealed” and closed the Wuqing District People’s Hospital, placed 739 “isolation and control” personnel (including 23 medical personnel) in quarantine for observation/isolation, and hospitalized (removed to new hospital?) 234 patients for treatment. This was announced at a press conference.
Translation Google [bold added]
A patient in Tianjin has caused 973 people to be quarantined and seized by Wuqing People’s Hospital
“CCTV Tianjin February 6 (Reporter Jia Liliang) A reporter learned from a press conference on the prevention and control of pneumonia in a new type of coronavirus infection in Tianjin that one patient was diagnosed in Wuqing District, Tianjin, due to the poor management of the hot diagnosis process. In the end, a total of 973 [persons in] hospitals were sealed, controlled and isolated.”
“…In this course of diagnosis and treatment, no problems can be seen on the surface, but there are actually problems during the operation. Wu Lixiang, member of the Standing Committee of Wuqing District Committee and executive deputy head, admits that the case has three warnings and lessons for the management of fever fever clinics.”
“In the early morning of February 4, the Wuqing District Prevention and Control Headquarters immediately became highly vigilant when they received a weak positive result from the patient’s new crown virus nucleic acid test. The Wuqing District Prevention and Control Command immediately initiated emergency treatment measures: First, in accordance with the highest standards (standards of confirmed cases), the patient’s ward and the inpatient building were blocked for the first time, and the district people’s hospital was sealed and controlled at 7 am. Second, all contacts were quarantined in strict accordance with the requirements of flow regulation. Among them, 23 medical staff transferred to the Swan Lake Quarantine Medical Observation Point for observation and quarantine at 11 pm on February 4. The third is to strengthen the overall management and control of the hospital, to fully protect all wards and buildings, strictly implement personnel management measures to prevent cross-infection.
After sorting and in-depth investigation of personnel, the People’s Hospital of Wuqing District sorted out 973 isolation and control personnel, of which 739 were transferred to centralized isolation points for observation and isolation, and 234 patients were hospitalized and isolated for treatment.”
“At present, the preparation of the centralized medical observation points required by Wuqing District is ready…There are a total of 3 fever clinics in Wuqing District. After the district people’s hospital is closed, there are two fever clinics in Wuqing District Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital and District Second People’s Hospital. A total of 40 beds are available. In addition, Wu Qing has renovated the hot district clinic of the original district party school, with a total of 70 beds, which can be put into use at any time, which should be able to meet the needs of fever patients in the district.”
Source, translated as posted (with more details) by “Pathfinder” on FluTrackers
Source, original article in Chinese: https://6do.news/article/2179304-61
ChinaDaily: “Just the facts on mobile cabin hospitals”
13 mobile hospitals planned to be situated in Wuhan; 20 to be situated elsewhere in China. Capacity of first 3 mobile hospitals in Wuhan in converted sports stadium and two convention centers is 1,300 beds and 2,000 medical staff.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/05/WS5e3a8309a3101282172752f5_1.html
Cruise ship bound for New Jersey carrying passengers who will be tested for coronavirus
“A Royal Caribbean cruise ship scheduled to dock in Bayonne, New Jersey, early Friday has at least a dozen Chinese nationals on board in isolation who will be tested for coronavirus, a source familiar with the ship said.
Some of the passengers, who are returning from the Bahamas on the ship, have pulmonary issues, according to the source.
They will be tested for the virus when the ship docks at the New Jersey port.” (Source)
We may never know, but where there’s smoke, there’s fire. They may have opened Pandora’s box.
Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus. He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days. Nothing is easy, but…
…he will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone. Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!
Spring will be wanting !
Just noticing how the “official” number of new cases being reported has been a steady 4 thousand every day for at least the past week. How is this possible? As more cases emerge the number of new cases should be growing exponentially, not in a linear direction.
Census starts April 1, 2020 for lower 48 states. People going door to door asking questions. Familiar? I hope to complete it on line.
nice cruise ship summary here:
https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-06-coronavirus-infections-explode-across-diamond-princess-cruise-ship.html
—Chauncy Gardner
Hopin’ ,Wishin’ and Prayn’