While China appears to be succeeding in dramatically slowing the spread of the coronavirus within it borders, covid-19 continues to explode elsewhere in the world.
In the US, people are just beginning to realize the severity of the situation. Cases are now present in nearly half of America's states and the panic rush to buy food, cleaning supplies, etc is on.
But as Bachman Turner Overdrive sings: "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet"
At the current rate of spread, conservative math calculates that by May, the current US covid-19 case count of 361 infected will jump to 4+ million.
That is the power of exponential growth.
If that indeed happens, our hospitals and clinics will be utterly overwhelmed. Forget getting treatment for the coronavirus or ANY kind of health emergency.
It’s been said about covid-19: “Most of us are going to get it and all of us are going to know someone who dies from it.” That prediction is looking more and more accurate each day.
As always, use the scant remaining time left where our way of life still ‘works’ as we’re accustomed to and tend to your preps.
Reading the coronavirus preparation megathreads available for free on PeakProsperity.com is a great way to get started:
If you’re one of the many new readers here on Peak Prosperity, be sure you’re up-to-date on developments with the coronavirus. All of our latest covid-19 video updates, podcasts and articles can be accessed here for free.
And here’s a brief list of the more recent material that Chris and I have published for our premium subscribers, to give you a sense of what’s behind the paywall (free executive summary, enrollmentrequired for full access)
There are new links to the Peak Prosperity Megathreads. These are a list of the comments, from the video threads, podcasts and blog posts since Chris and Adam began posting for this Corona Virus health crisis on 1/23/2020 in three broad categories: Covid19: Medicinals, Herbals and Supplements Megathread Covid 19: Sanitation, PPE and Self Quarantine Megathread Covid19: Home Prep, Deep Pantry & Gardening Megathread
Chris and Adam have set up a dedicated “Corona “Covid19” Preparedness” forum where we can post information about how to get through this current crisis and how to prepare for the next wave which I expect will arrive in the Fall here in the Northern Hemisphere. Southern Hemisphere residents will soon face their own crisis.
One of the objectives of collating all of the comments was to be able to put together specific threads, covering one focused category. I have begun to do that. Covid19: Supplements – Vitamin C
First group of subjects I want to get into in depth, are the methods and health additions which will help you get your body ready to fight this illness.
As I can, I will post here those threads. Please add your information, your experiences and of course, ways you disagree or agree with the information we put out. Only together can we create a library of knowledge to help us all get through this.
Please Note: I’m currently hosting these compilations on my own website due to problems with the software here, limiting my ability to put up large and long posts. They will be transferred here as soon as possible.
You may get a warning when clicking on my link. Software problems of my own, I’m not currently “https” compliant, something Google hates.
BTW, if you want downloadable copies of any files I post, PM me here and send me your email and the files you want, I will be happy to send them to you.
I have also compiled the comments in the Premium Member posts in these categories. Peak Prosperity subscribers can PM me for those files as well.
Stay safe. Be healthy.
David Trammel
I have been doing some analysis on utilising deaths as an indicator of actual underlying cases in the general population. Utilising 3 figures we can calculate the multiplication factor needed to multiply fatalities to get a reasonable estimate of cases.
I will provide two tables below, one is based on a time from infection to death of 33 days (5 days incubation and 28 days from first onset till death) and the second on the more conservative time of 21 days (5 days incubation and 16 days from symptoms till death).
Where we have reliable data of an uncontrolled community out-break we are seeing growth rates north of 20% per day. For example South Korea had 1 case on the 22-Jan and 6,593 on the 6-March, this represents a growth rate of 22% per day sine first case. Italy is sitting at 25%.
Utilising a 20% growth rate, a lead time from infection till death of 33 and the WHO case fatility rate of 3.4% we get a rate of 12,064 cases for every death. Utilising this rate and applying to US deaths of 17 we end up with an estimate of 205,000 infected persons in the US as at the 7th of March. Applying this to Italy with 233 deaths we get a number of 2.8m, in Iran with 145, 1.7m infected and in South Korea 530,000 infected. Obviously the level of health care available will play a role and the 33 days may shorten closer to the estimate of 21 with would decrease the cases by one order of magnitude.
Utilising average days from infection to death of 33 (5 incubation, 28 days onset to death)
Growth Rate per day
12.50%
15%
20%
22.50%
25%
Case Mortality Rate
0.5%
9,751
20,140
82,037
162,002
315,544
1.0%
4,876
10,070
41,019
81,001
157,772
1.5%
3,250
6,713
27,346
54,001
105,181
2.0%
2,438
5,035
20,509
40,501
78,886
2.5%
1,950
4,028
16,407
32,400
63,109
3.0%
1,625
3,357
13,673
27,000
52,591
3.4%
1,434
2,962
12,064
23,824
46,404
4.0%
1,219
2,517
10,255
20,250
39,443
4.5%
1,083
2,238
9,115
18,000
35,060
5.0%
975
2,014
8,204
16,200
31,554
Utilising average days from infection to death of 21 day (5 incubation, 16 days onset to death)
The age x infection x country plot appears to be more of a reflection of the age demographics of those countries (eg Japan has much more old people and less young than Iran), at the very least the two are confounded, and need separating before any conclusion could be looked at re the idea of different strains in different countries.
I dont have time to go get the data from individual sources, but if someone has machine readable data for by country age distributions easily available, I am happy to reproduce the plot normalized by age demographic distribution.
Long time reader, listener, and admirer, but not much of commentator. Chris’ video above is the cold water, slap in the face that many, many people in this country sorely need; of course, that slap would be via a hand that was gloved so as to not spread COVID-19. But, alas, the vast majority of sheeple choose to get their “news” from the sources that are just hand maidens of the government-corporate elite and that don’t care if this virus spreads because they will be looking “opportunities.”
I am writing because Chris did this video 6-7 hours ago and his numbers in the chart he shows near the beginning for the different countries and their rates is already out of date considerably.
France is near 1000 cases and the Us is at 400. Talk about exponential.
All the best to everyone as we all hunker down for Hurricane Corona.
I APPRECIATE the information. I wish it had come from the government, not news sources. I live in central Virginia and my husband works at DCA (Ronald Reagon). Granted, I am assuming when Covid-19 barrels through the DC/Virginia area, there is no way to avoid it. But a heads up could have been nice.
Thank you for the good work.
Premium Subscribers –
I like to propose we all chip in $5-$10 and By the Tireless Dtrammel a Free Subscription for at least a year or two (maybe Chris and Adam will match) --you have been an Shinning Light of Goodness – I will even Vemno/paypal you (or donate to a charity of your choice) It’s Good to know wonderful selfless people like you still exist. A wise man once said “you can curse The Darkness or Light a Candle” — Thanks for the ever burning candle – Joe G
Asher, it’s not my specialty, but you may be interested in looking at Trevor Bedford’s calculations on the same topic: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236097553520660483
The growth in cases isn’t just a result of the rate of people getting infected increasing at a rate of 25% per day, it’s the rate of those who are detected rising at that speed at first, then should level off to the real doubling time. So 15% might be a better estimate, since 6 days is the middle of the road estimate of doubling time at the moment.
My calculation would be that each death is the tip of the iceberg of 50 people, since the mortality rate is about 2%. But the 50 people were infected 5 doubling times earlier, since it takes that long to die. So, I think each death represents 1600 infected people at most, and 17 deaths would mean we have about 25,000 infections (fewer if the mortality rate turns out to be higher).
Liz Specht started her countdown with 2000 cases, which may be an order of magnitude off. If we are 3+ doubling times ahead of her, we hit the wall by early April, not early May.
So then Washington State is right - everyone at risk stay home, let’s stop testing people and put resources into “something else.” Those of us who are not high risk (like kids at school without high risk parents) will go out there and get the virus, so the population reaches herd immunity if that’s possible with a coronavirus. You don’t need 100% of the population to get it, just enough that it’s significantly harder to meet a person who is not immune. Then we can reopen hospitals (maybe we’ve even manufactured a few masks by then).
Which brings us back to the topic of being as healthy as we can be. One of my favorite teachers Alex Vasquez (DC, ND, DO) has put out a video on viruses in general that may help many of us. His favorite supplements would be NAC, B2, B3, Se, Zn, glutamine, and glycine, vitamins A and D and alpha lipoic acid. Nothing works in a vacuum. He doesn’t mention vitamin C. Stephen Buhner thinks elder berries may be a bit weak for this coronavirus. https://www.inflammationmastery.com/antiviral
[quote]A study published this week in the Journal of Hospital Infection looked at the lifespans of other coronaviruses found in humans on various surfaces. The SARS coronavirus — at a temperature of 68 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) — lasts for two days on steel; four days on wood and glass; and five days on metal, plastic, and ceramics. (The researchers also found that one strain of SARS lasted up to nine days on a plastic surface at room temperature.)
SARS only survives between two and eight hours on aluminum, and less than eight hours on latex.
According to Graham, these findings likely apply to the new coronavirus, since smooth, nonporous surfaces like doorknobs and tabletops are better at carrying viruses in general. Porous surfaces — like money, hair, and fabric — do not allow viruses to survive as long because the minute spaces or holes in those materials can trap the microbe and prevent its transfer, Graham said.[/quote]
also talks about effects of temperature, etc... and what can kill it
[quote]The authors of the recent study noted that human coronaviruses could be "efficiently inactivated" on surfaces within one minute if they're cleaned with solutions containing 62%-71% ethanol alcohol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide, or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite.
So, looks like we can even dilute the 3% hydrogen peroxide if we need to
"We expect a similar effect against the SARS-CoV-2,"[/quote]
Weeeeeellllllll, that sucks. I'm in St Louis, guess that trips my "Red Line". I will take tomorrow evening once it gets dark and do one or two more runs to the grocery store to top off my prep, then close the door except for one trip a day to a closed pet shelter for all next week to see if this escalates.
BTW, my basement prep is just about ready too
ADDED: I will still go outside btw. I have a side garden that needs weeding and new plants for the Spring, so I'll spend some time doing that. I'll have to run to the nursery for plants, since I didn't get seeds started on my early cold stuff (onions and greens) but I'll do that early in the morning one day this week, just as they open to cut down on exposure.
North of Italy is coming to close down: it will be possible to go out of homes only for inevitable working needs or emergency. Supermarkets are closing for weekend days to prevent crowding. These measures come as Italian hospitals are already too full and not having enough staff. Italians just will not stay at home voluntarily.
Why the numbers don’t make sense in Italy? I thought they said they stopped counting asymptomatic positive cases, if I remember correctly? So the real number of infections must be much worse than the official count says. The politicians have all the numbers, so the measures that they take mirror the real situation that is much worse than reported. Of course they don’t want to be the number one leader in the infection in Europe, so like Germany and France haven’t reported cases for a long time until the explosion happened these days (of course the infected were there and growing even faster as nobody was informed how to protect themselves), Italy surely does her best to show a nice face toward the world. The tactics doesn’t work, of course, only makes the situation worse.
I am just reading that also under a shut down the bars and restaurants stay open under a condition of 1 meter distance between each client. How do they imagine to keep this distance? Of course it doesn’t stop aerosols, as we’ve seen on cruise ships where there was 1 meter or more distance between people. That’s a complete nonsense and the Italians just want to die all.
Also a secretary of Democratic Party of Italy who is also governor of Lazio, the province of Rome, resulted positive on coronavirus.
Slovakia with their first cluster have called an emergency meeting, patient zero returning from Northern Italy, Venezia. They quarantined more than ten possible contacts of the infected, but I didn’t get if they were aware of the aerosol spread. It’s quite possible that they miss the crucial information on the way it spreads and how dangerous it is, given only 14 days of quarantine, when we know that it’s not enough. We will see in the next few days all their errors put in practice.
France with their almost thousand infected continues partying on Saturday night like before, the two restaurants close to my home on Luxembourg - France border full of large groups. Me, coming back from supermarket with full car of pet food for my home beasts (I am already OK with human food for few months) felt really strange, like the only one storing resources, disinfecting hands continuously, covering my face with a scarf and avoiding others while everybody is partying. Well, the time will tell who was right.
@dtrammel,
We’re the next county over. That’s our red line, too. Good luck.
Adam and Chris—thanks for all your work on this. I can’t say that we’re as prepared as I like, but we should be pretty good as long as the grid functions.
Thank you for the eyes on the ground Ivah. It must be scary with all that is going on. We here in the US will be there in a couple of weeks.
Stay healthy, be safe.
When you see just how unimaginably incompetent the response of the US government has been, the vaunted CDC, the unmatched NIH, it makes you stop and think. When Chris, on his own, can dunk on the CDC and the NIH, it really shows you reality. My takeaways:
Don’t count on government to solve problems. They can’t solve climate change, they can’t fix the financial system, they can’t prepare us for peak prosperity, etc. If you think “just electing the right person” will fix anything in society, you might as well wait for the unicorns to return from the mountains.
I believe part of the problem is that the US is just to damn big. You need a huge organization to deal with a country this size. And for those who have worked in small and large companies, you know how incredibly stupid smart people can be when they are in large groups. Humans are just not equipped to act properly in very large numbers (read Cialdini on how our brains are wired wrong).
Huge political structure leads to huge risk. Because CDC provides public health services for 330MM people, if the decision-maker gets it wrong (as they have), 330MM people suffer. If the health department of my county screws up, only my county is affected, and other counties have a chance to get it correct.
This leaves me with the strong conviction that only decentralization of political power can help us. Problems should be handled at the lowest level possible, not via top-down programs run by giant group-think bureaucracies thousands of miles away.
I guess the Founders had it right. They meant for every state to be it’s own country, and the US to be a single trade block that shared a currency and defense. What a different world we are in now.
ADDED: I will still go outside btw. I have a side garden that needs weeding and new plants for the Spring, so I'll spend some time doing that. I'll have to run to the nursery for plants, since I didn't get seeds started on my early cold stuff (onions and greens) but I'll do that early in the morning one day this week, just as they open to cut down on exposure.