Coronavirus: Why The US Is In Deep Trouble

Sparky – I never said I didn’t get shot. Or stabbed, bitten and atomic wedgied.
Now I never bite, anyway he didn't bleed much. He did whine like a 6 year old school girl. Pffffft! Such drama. BTW we keep this line of banter going and Adam and Chris will rethink my free years membership due to psychiatric reasons, then I'd have to do those weird ink blot tests again. "Ohhh look at the pretty butterflies..."

Does anyone remember when weekends were fun and not bad news. LOL… new unknown virus, check; new outbreak, check; oil crashing, check; still not a pandemic, check; bovine semen, checccck… wait, WHAT? HAHAH. Dtrammel, you are holding out the goods?? Totally joking but that is a curious stash!! I bet that is a really good rot starter and now I need your gardening tips! LOL. So glad to hear you are well prepared, you have been one of the leaders fostering us newbie preppers and very much appreciated. Glad your efforts were rewarded by C&A.
Desogames, fabulous info. I live in a heavily O&G community (houston, tx USA) and curious, what do you think this well do to jobs? Will low oil prices lend to loss of jobs as it did several years ago? Also, do you feel like this will lend SA to be attacked as they were in September via drone to their oil and gas facilities? I have a sister living in an american ex-pat compound situation over there due to the last o&g fallout here in the states. Of course with virus circulating, I fear for them and my 10yo niece but I wonder if this will make the environment volatile or compromise my brother in laws job with Saudi Aramco. They have been trying to leave for months arghhh. Timing.
Eye on Houston, Tx. I keep politely telling people in my local community FB group, however, the mud is thick between the ears here. We have a 4 week long rodeo, full of fair rides, food, concert and of course rodeo each night. FOR 4 weeks!! It draws 2.5 million people during that time. If even 10% are infected that is alot PLUS we have a huge medical center just down the road from this nightly monstrosity. End of March is going to be SHTF here. I drew the line last week and hubs stopped going to work. Then days later my RN friend tells my she had a patient in ICU at her hospital plus at least 2 more from weeks before. Now they are saying they all traveled on a tour group from Egypt. Also, a professor at Rice University and several students were quarantined. Prof was positive. Rice is also located in the medical center with both undergrad and grad programs.
YouTube has great interviews that are not available anywhere else I can find. THE Dr. Fouci was being interviewed by JAMA yesterday and explicitly states ‘at risk for more issues’ people have: heart disease, diabetes, OBESITY, lung issues like “asthma” which I have been waiting to hear these words. He also said, USA would be ok if we didnt have a major outbreak ( Hello seattle!! hello cruisehip!!!) Worth a 35 minute listen.
Be Well everyone!

Ha, ha! Must be nice to have friends in high places, dtrammel. Nice visual of you, Steven and Harrison drinking Coronas (beer, not bug!), talking about the next apocalypse while hanging-out on crates of…bovine serum??? Ok, I won’t ask… Just remember–don’t hoard! There may be others less fortunate that you who may be in need of…umm…Ok–never mind…
Somehow I thought you might have stashed water, rice, beans, bullets, PMs, meds–maybe an Ark? You’re resourceful, alright! :slight_smile:

One county over in upstate NY. Time to stay home.

Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-…………….! :slight_smile:
dtrammel and Greyman, honestly, you’re making me LoL!! I apparently need a mental health break occasionally from all this Covid dreariness.
Thanks, guys! :slight_smile:

OK Sparky, it’s real late and no one reads these posts from the middle of the night so I might as well come clean. But you gotta promise not to tell anyone.
I never saw the whole 12 sectors of the basement - just the south forty acres of the ‘collectibles’ quadrant, but that was enough for me.
And it was more than a flesh wound, but luckily the electric fence stopped my heart so I didn’t bleed out before the Dobermans found me and dragged me to the bottom of the stairs where Dtrammel saw me in a pool of slobber. (They’re really friendly dogs.) As a reward for getting across the croc pond, after he patched me up, he said I could leave and I could take a memento with me.
And that’s how I ended up wth Jimmy Hoffa’s wristwatch.
Now I gotta go to work. You’ll understand that as Trump’s toupee wrangler I’m on call 24/7.

Love BTO! Had an 8 Track tape of theirs, put it on at night and they would still be playing the next morning. Soo glad I got to experience the 60’s and 70’s!!! We had the most amazing bands. In some ways though not much has changed. We had the Nixon - Watergate scandal and the Anti-war movement. (Vietnam)
Looks like we still have political theatre and senseless wars.
Cie le vie.
Rock-N-Roll Granny

Gonna play papa bear here; when you say you are taking “tomorrow off,” that means spending time only with your partner, and NO information scouting. Yes, we love your videos and all, but you got a life to live too. Embrace what matters while you can, Chris. We can all wait a few days for your excellent videos!

I wondered where that went to. You were lucky you never meet the zombie cat squad.
Off to bed myself.
Tomorrow we’re all back in the trenches ladies.

Just a few days ago, these shelves were full at the Grafton Target.  

At the same Target, Black Elderberry products of various types suddenly became popular. Once again, there was an ample supply just a few days ago.

Sadly, the 2009 flu pandemic (i.e.,swine flu) both began in the summer of said year and spread at a rate unlike the seasonal flu during the warmer months.

I remember earlier speculation that a history of smoking could increase the ACE2 receptors. Is there a positive correlation between the number of long time smokers in a country and the severity of the outbreak? Iran, China, and Italy all indulge heavily if memory serves.
Rock-N-Roll Granny

Wow! I just listened to Tucker Carlson and that guy is GREAT. I have never even heard of him before since I do not watch news nor do I own a TV but this FOX video on Youtube captures my feelings perfectly. I have not heard anyone so clearly articulate the problems we all face from an over reliance on China nor so clearly express the problems with globalization that have suddenly dawned on all of us as shortages erupt. If anyone has not seen this video its a must-watch because I think it is going to form the basis of our political themes for the next several years until we get our strategic industrial policy sorted out. Tucker is calling for a Marshall Plan to rebuild US manufacturing.
Thank you Tucker! Keep on talking brother. This is what people need to hear.

The page with the virus is this one:

Smerconish explains how he’s preparing for coronavirus
[Hint: He’s not, other than increasing his exposures and interactions as economic impact is greatest concern of coronavirus.]

So what I do is specialize in technical charts price analysis and I do not like what I am seeing right now. There is a relatively small group of people who understand that much about our future is already written in price patterns and while these can take a number of directions through the passage of time, they ultimately lead to conclusions that can often be forecast years in advance.
We usually don’t know what the precise economic, social and political triggers will be that might ultimately be ascribed to the patterns or how they will eventually manifest themselves. But we can still tell a lot about our future without knowing some unknowable future events. Recently some worrying price changes have altered the patterns toward seriously negative conclusions.
The crude oil chart is one of those that should be setting off alarm bells since it points to an utter collapse in economic activity and this past Friday we witnessed a technical breakdown on that chart that every experienced trader would understand in an instant. It is a fearful thing that could be coming now. A global depression in other words.
And while oil prices may bounce back in the near term, a dangerous new trajectory may already have been fixed if we cannot turn this virus threat around quickly. Because oil consumption (and for that matter fuel consumption in general) is such a key indicator of healthy economies it is of grave concern that a trending price collapse may now be in progress.
Most of you will not be aware of this except anecdotally or from listening to the business news. We hear the stock markets are falling, that gold and bonds are at breakout highs and then we hear all the rationalizations for why that happened. What nobody tells you though is there is a much deeper meaning to price action that was already written long before. And so I will just give a heads up to warn you that right now we have been taken to the very edge in some cases and I do not know if its too late to pull back from disaster or not.
The patterns are on all the charts. On crude oil, the Swiss Franc, the euro, yen, gold, natural gas and the DOW. You name it. Even for a technical analyst this is unbelievable on some levels how quickly we have gone from stability to this moment in time when the patterns could break down altogether.
I can only hope the powers that be can pull us back in before its too late.

For those of you interested in a European perspective, this TV debate took place (in English) on French TV this week (Thursday I think).
It’s interesting to watch and nicely covers the full spectrum of opinion / actions etc. Also (conveniently early in the video) some footage / views from Italy.
The professor’s views are worrying to see…even the interviewer was speechless one time ( circa 12 mins 07 secs ) - priceless!! …the journalist is a superstar, feet fully on the ground throughout…like :slight_smile: Eventually, the virologist contradicts the professor and says “if we want this thing to go away, then changing personal behaviour is the only way to make it happen”.

I really was impressed with the various tweets from Liz Specht in today’s video and tried to summarize the key elements here. I am in New Zealand and heading back to the US in a couple weeks…
CoronaVirus Math…
Exponential Math
Assume conservatively 2,000 cases in the US today (March 7 2020)
Continue to see doubling of actual cases every 6 days (super conservative)
By end of April 2020 will see 1 million US cases…
Around Cinco de Mayo we will see 2 million, May 11th 4 million etc.
The math is simple, lack of testing actually increases and hides the rate.
Hospitals in trouble
US has about 1M beds in hospitals
65% are already occupied with regular stuff (car accidents, the regular flu etc.)
Roughly 10% (though double that seems likely) of CoronaVirus cases require hospitalization of some sort
These cases typically last for weeks (based on worldwide experience so far)
By Cinco de Mayo all open beds will be filled (ignores fact most aren’t appropriate beds)
Masks are a problem!
Fed says we have 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (inferior but ok)
There are 18M Health Care Workers (HCW) at work each day (at most)
As CoronaVirus spreads it will be prudent for all HCWs to wear a mask!
They will burn through entire stock of all masks in a few days at one per day.
Wuhan HCWs were collapsing as they tried to preserve their non-reusable equipment…
Compounding the curve
HCWs are already getting sick with full PPE…
HCWs using masks past their safe disposal point can make them sick.
HCWs under these circumstances in hospitals filled with sick people make it worse
65% of beds are filled with people who didn’t come in with CoronaVirus
The result is sick HCWs and hospitals becoming incubators of illness…
Liz Specht Comment
“Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It is wrong to assuage the public by saying only 2% will die. People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease… And yes, you really should prepare to buckle-down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared.” -Liz Specht @LizSpecht
I have summarized a set of messages (largely from Twitter) which were shared through Peak Prosperity on YouTube from Liz Specht. -Mike Hart