Covid-19: Is The Worst Behind Us?

Data is increasingly suggesting that the first wave of covid-19 in a country (or state) is the worst. The most people get infected during that initial period, as expected with a virus with an R0 this high.

Many US states are still in their first waves, especially those in the South and West seeing re-surging infections. The battle there remains focused on preventing things from getting out of control and overwhelming the medical system.

But it’s possible that previously hard hit areas like New York, Italy and Spain may now have sufficient immunity to avoid a second wave. It’s too soon to know for certain, but if true, this will be very welcome news.

Similarly encouraging is that we now have a better handle medically on how to treat covid patients successfully with early intervention (Tocilizumab, Anakina and, yes, HCQ+). So further outbreaks can hopefully quelled earlier and with fewer mortalities.

Reason to hope? Yes. Can we let our guard down now? Absolutely not.

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This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at

Chris, respectfully: would of, could of is too easy. Even easier is to say: If Dr, Fauci had not sponsored and allowed the development of this Virus to be easier to enter the human form then NONE of this ever happened and the world would never have heard if this bloody mess of the honey badger Virus. Why the world hasn’t called for his head is beyond me, he’s the top dog and must be raked through the coals. Nothing in my life has saddened me more than having this SS type science still in the world these days. Yes, it’s going on by all Super Powers, yes, it should stop and what a time to use supposed good intentions and use it to scream to the world that this manufacturing of deadly Viruses and Diseases must stop now! It truly has been the greatest eye opener and disappointment in my life. All this shit ends for me when I go into the woods and control everything I can so I know the world is going to be terrific. Be safe. Peace

Just a note, for the survey if you choose “not in the US” as your state it doesn’t progress to the next page whereas if you choose a US state it does.

After watching this video, did you suddenly switch to “Scenario B”?
I have to admit this does sound plausible… Keep in mind I’m not ready to abandon all caution, and start going to crowded restaurants and concerts anytime soon.
To be the devil’s advocate on the Penn State study, as well as the antibody testing of the 3,000 people in New York done in April (

  • What was the sensitivity and specificity of the antibody testing of those 3,000 people?
  • When they analyzed each state’s ILI cases, what criteria exactly did they use to rule which ones were in “excess” of the seasonal baseline levels? If they went by the sheer number of ILI cases, did they account for the fact that in March when everyone was terrified about the Covid, and that people were rushing to the clinic or doctor for any kind of symptom – no matter how small? In other words, a lot of people suddenly turning hypochondriac, but were all those extra visits counting as “extra ILIs”?
  Having said that, for argument’s sake let us assume that the study is 100% correct, and for every known case, there are 86 others that were infected, recovered, and wasn’t even aware they had it or didn’t report it…   I did a spreadsheet using the Worldometers data on a state-by-state basis. I’ve also added a column which calculates an estimate of percentage infected – based on the total cases per 1M, and multiplying that by 87. Any percentages that came over 100% I just capped at 100%. Yes, I realize this is a crude analysis, and the “87x” number is high at the beginning, and would lower as more people get infected. Also, it could vary from state to state depending on a lot of factors (NPIs).   However, the trend of daily new cases do seem to correlate with the amount of people already infected. The states with a higher percentage of people that already have been infected (ie. New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Maryland) seem to have the worse behind them, while the states that haven’t been hit as hard yet (Arizona, Texas, California, Georgia, Oklahoma) are the ones that are seeing a huge uptick in cases right now…   In the end, the spikes may not necessarily be because the states seeing huge spikes are being “reckless”, but it could very well be because Covid’s running its course through them (unfortunately with grim consequences).   However, if we’re indeed in “Scenario B”, there’s a big light at the end of this tunnel! Covid could very well be on its way out sooner.   I guess time will tell…   Anyway, Chris, I hope you follow up with this Penn State study in your next video. Keep up the good work! Crude Covid Analysis by State - Per Capita Cases vs New Case Trends

planfortomorrow, watch out for those ticks while you are in the woods…I’m thinking they may be carrying a lab enhanced illness, too. Just saying…

I stand by my conviction that Amerikaans are not very intelligent.
98 IQ is the average. This means there are quite a few who have IQ’s less than that.
Unfortunately those people are the most vociferous.
City councilman in Scottsdale mimics George Floyd by saying at an anti mask rally “I can’t breathe” . If past elections are any indication he is well on his way to the White House.

Unintelligent is not getting your vitamin D up to healthy levels (far above official recommendations of above 20 ng/ml, you want it at >60 ng/ml), in which case HB-19 could even kill you. Above 60 ng/ml I bet you hardly even notice it (I know at least 5 people, plus myself, who believe we had it and we’re aware of our vitamin D levels and other relevant health status factors). That’s an even more relevant factor than wearing masks.

Thanks Chris for another great video packed full of data. Let’s hope the optimistic parts turn out to be true!
I thought I’d share this here where more of our community might see it, esp. those who may be moving out of the cities and into areas where they can do more serious gardening. Paul Wheaton, who was in this Featured Voices podcast here at Peak Prosperity a while back, is doing a new kickstarter to fund a project seeking to build and try out design ideas for a truly passive greenhouse intended to work even in a Montana winter. It is planned to operate without any supplemental energy inputs. The intention is also to make it without using a ton of industrial products we may not have access to in the future, and would have high energy footprints regardless. I guess it will be predominantly round log timbers and dirt. I’m sure some glass and such will be involved, but there is not even going to be a fan. He and his team aim to make a video of the process. Right now there is some discussion of creating a stretch goal that would fund adding a bunch of data sensors to allow them to really track the performance of this, and what design aspects are working best. I do hope they do this as the hard data is nice to have, which I imagine most readers here appreciate! I do find it ironic though that if they add the sensors then some electricity will be needed to run them even if it isn’t needed for the greenhouse itself.
Anyway, like most of his kickstarters there is a large community of permaculture oriented people supporting it with tons of rewards for support levels as little as $1. I suspect many of these rewards and the project itself would interest those here looking to get there homestead in order as best as possible before the 3E’s start tightening their grip even stronger.
If anyone is interested here is a link to the Truly Passive Greenhouse kickstarter.

MM…A friend told me that she thought my IQ was close to room temperature. Do you think that she meant that as a compliment?

I just read over the proposal for the totally passive greenhouse. There is an assumption on temperature that needs to be questioned. First they say that underground soil temp in Northern Idaho is 50 degrees. Probably not. Underground temp is derived from the average annual temp, which in the whole state of Idaho is 45.75 degrees …I would assume slightly colder in the North. The second assumption is that 6 feet down you reach a stable temperature that is not changed by topside swings. Probably not true.
When I was hired to install an Earth Tube system to moderate temperature in 2 shipping containers that I buried 10’ below ground…I consulted some geotechnical guys and they told me that the distance underground to achieve stable temp. Is about 25’. The person I was working for would not respect the data and insisted on going ahead with the project. I was advocating against my self-interest and trying to abandon the earth tube part of the project. We already had the containers in the ground…welded together as one unit. The owner insisted that we do the earth tubes. I ran 400 lineal feet of 10” diameter tube from 16’ of depth at the containers in a downhill direction so that condensation would flow away from the containers…It never worked as far a moderating the temperature.

If scenario B applies, New York City and the surrounding suburban counties are at herd immunity. The larger metro areas upstate are 1/2 way plus or minus a bit and the rural areas are not there yet.
Here in the Albany area, mask wearing seems to be falling out of favor at private social gatherings and meetings that are ramping up again. In stores, compliance is still fairly good. There should be some uptick in cases in the next 1-3 weeks if we are not yet at herd immunity.

ONE thing alone would have made the death rate lower: If certain state governors (Looking at YOU, Cuomo) had not mandated that nursing homes admit COVID positive patients.
So imagine how much lower the death rate would have been if all the other measures PLUS actually trying to keep COVID out of nursing homes had been done

Well, Chris has always maintained he’ll change his views if the data changes, so we should be prepared for that. The operative question is whether the data in this new study bears peer-review and scrutiny or not.

Interesting info Oliveoilguy. I suppose that is part of why this proposed greenhouse is an experiment, though I suspect they believe all their assumptions will prove true. I really hope they can expand the project to include lots of data monitoring on the different parts to see what really does happen.
I do have an underground, earth bermed art studio I made many years ago hoping to tap into that stabilizing earth temperature. It works to some degree, keeping it cooler in the summer and preventing it from freezing in the winter (in MI). The winter temps inside usually hover around 44 degrees F. Not exactly cozy, but as noted it never freezes.
A couple years ago I also made a greenhouse off the end of one building and in the process did a half berm up all the walls all around the greenhouse and building. So it is partially buried. This does moderate the temps, but it will freeze in the greenhouse. I should also note I don’t do anything to heat the greenhouse either beyond the sun shining in. I’ve thought about playing with earthtubes but am too close to the water line to really dig down more. I don’t really get crops from it year around, though it probably could keep things like kale alive, but not growing. Usually my kale leaves are gone by the depths of winter. However, if I do have the remnants of a plant left come spring it is bursting forth with greens way before anything else in my outdoor gardens.

I guess we all get to decide for OURSELVES what is relevant.
I choose to think since we live among large groups of people (most of us anyway) , and it has been undeniably demonstrated that wearing a mask greatly reduces the spread and makes us all safer.
Of course there are some who choose to believe what is relevant is their own personal wants needs and desires. They tend to believe that there is no reason to think of anyone but themselves.
I get it

Well you just can’t make this stuff up.
Sheriffs across the country are refusing to enforce mask laws. The really sad thing is there really should not have to be a law for people to do something to protect their community. Interestingly most of the sheriffs are white and republican and the Governors are democrat.
I have a bug out country should I need it. This is the end of empire and it is just starting to get ugly. I will have a seat far away and watch with some interest.
He says the funniest thing “don’t be sheep”.

It depends on What room and what her IQ was. I need more data. lol
For the record I have stated before that the IQ of PP members is far above average. Unfortunately there are not enough people here to make a statistical difference.

This will indeed be good news if so, BUT, is it yet proven that once you’ve had it, you’re immune? There seems to be some doubt about that. Also, there’s the slight matter of the more virulent strain Chris talked about in his previous video. On the positive side, the improving record of treatments is very hopeful - I like that even better than the ever-elusive and politically explosive vaccine prospect.

Hi Mohammed,
Although I agree with, and learn from most of what you post, I’m not sure about your IQ statement. The commonality I see, in my limited vision, is a combination of critical thinking and empathy. It is my experience that to develop these “skill”, IQ does not play a big role, experiences in life do. Sometimes one captures a tiny, but sparkling, glimpse of the life of a poster. In those cases I think I almost always discern some emotional richness that cannot be accounted for by IQ alone.
Grts, Dave

Re: IQ @ room temp: depends on the units… C, F, or K.