Craig Hemke: "Just Be Ready and Keep Stacking"

Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/craig-hemke-just-be-ready-and-keep-stacking/

Hey folks, we have a bonus Finance U episode for you this week, in honor of Silver breaking out and Gold hitting new all-time highs.

When’s a bonus truly a bonus? When the guest is as awesome as Craig Hemke, the person behind the TFMetals Report.

Craig and I go way back, and we’ve got the frustrations and battle scars to prove it, as there’s been nothing easy or straightforward about believing in precious metals over the past few decades.

But, to really understand the root causes of precious metal’s recent run, you have dig into the macroeconomics and monetary and fiscal policies that are driving everything.

So, we did just that.

To set the stage, here are Craig’s calls for 2026:

(Source – X)

He thinks that the melding of the US Treasury and Federal Reserve functions, which began under Janet Yellen (first a Fed chair, then a Treasury secretary), will continue under Trump and Bessent.

Obviously, Trump will exert pressure, probably successfully, to have the 2026 Fed cut interest rates aggressively.

But to get away with that, without blowing up the long-bond yields, they will have to engage in something called “Yield Curve Control” or YCC. This is fancy speak fo the Fed printing up money out of thin air and buying long bonds whenever they peek above some target level, like 3% or something.

Whatever, it means vast gobs of new money printing.

To possibly mitigate that somewhat, stablecoins (the GENIUS Act) and gold seem to have a role to play. But gold is odd, because we have no idea if or how much Ft Knox actually has. Hey, no audit has happened as promised, and more importantly, no talk of not having an audit.

Add it all up, and here we are, watching gold plow to new highs day after day.

Craig’s view is that gold and silver are authentic hedges against dollar devaluation as well as systemic financial risks, with gold potentially reaching $3,900-$4,000 per ounce as a next ‘resting spot.’

I’d also like to promote Craig’s TF Metals Report as it provides daily insights to help investors navigate these trends, emphasizing the inevitability of the “math” in a debt-based system. Let Craig be your eyes and ears while you attend to the rest of your life.

Enjoy the show!


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Got some data on the French 10-year today. The trend on the US 10-year looks like its about to break down lower (i.e. right at “support” just below 4.25%). The French 10-year is about to break out higher (3.53%).

https://tradingeconomics.com/france/government-bond-yield

My guess: the thing being predicted at the moment looks more like a French debt crisis, which I think you pointed out a day or two ago. Perhaps the “money printing” could happen in the ECB first. That might cause a Euro decline, and a dollar rally.

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I just told a prepper friend that the silence on an audit means little/no gold or a LOT of gold waiting for the currency refresh.
There are those who believe Trump 45 got all the gold from Vatican plus Iraq ++
Seems very far out but i could never have even made up what has happened to us the last 8 years. So why should anything be out of question??
Except that the PTB navigate asoft landing for us little people.
Hoping but preparing every day!!!

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Thanks for having Hemke on. Wish I could remember the first time I listen to him… 2010!?! It was before he set up his paywall.

At this point I just assume that the level of fraud is monstrous. So wherever the Fed claims or Fort Knox is just complete BS. Assume the opposite.

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Wonderful and insightful interview.

I am of the opinion that we will see highly inflationary yield curve control very soon here along with Europe.

They will justify this and other extreme measures because they will manage to kick off the war the EU has wanted for so long.

Prepare accordingly.

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Great interview, thanks! It’s one I’ll give a re-listen tomorrow. Hemke truly seems to have a solid take on both the big picture and the here-and-now numbers.

A couple of late musings now, I see that the midnight monkey hammers have come out – gold & silver are down $28 & $0.47, respectively. I think they’ve finally slipped the leash though, and that those are mere fluctuations on this quarter’s larger trend. Also, I see oil is edging up slightly, just a few bucks but it looks like a steady trend.

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It’s making the news:

“National debt concerns” is code speak for “Dude, they’re going to have to fire up the printers to max speed.”

I suggest they not wait much longer:

https://x.com/VladTheInflator/status/1963253891627106450

https://x.com/DrJStrategy/status/1963254492998074611

FYI “Construction Quits” are employees voluntarily jumping ship, usually because the job market is strong and they can easily get another higher paying job. Plummeting quits means jobs are scarcer…indicating less construction activity.

ADP comes in weak this morning:
https://x.com/JesseCohenInv/status/1963576628061073617

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Here’s to hoping their printers run into “PC load letter” errors.

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I’m certainly bullish metals and that makes me sleep better at night. Still, I’ve never felt like a “trader”. It seems like all the financial gurus like Gammon, Hunt, etc., etc. are saying that bonds are no longer a safe haven and even though we don’t necessarily want to be traders, we are all being pushed further out the risk curve because the former ‘risk free trade’ is gone. TLT for example. So what to do with cash? My decision is to park it in SGOV (short term T-Bill fund). Better than a bank, more liquid than a CD with favorable state and local tax treatment. After getting the allocation that feels right in metals, I’m wondering if I need to take one of those insider courses where I learn to trade with a small portion in order to try to keep ahead of what feels like 10% real inflation.

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I’ve decided to invest in productive assets outside of the traditional universe, such as oil and gas wells. They have extremely favorable tax treatments, plus long-tail cash flows. However, typically only open to accredited investors.

Otherwise it’s all farm machinery and precious metals.

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Thanks for sharing that, Chris. I’m not an AE, so not ready for that action yet. Circumstances keep me in a suburban area with no land, so investing in farm equipment would only make me poorer! Does this community offer a course on trading? or can someone recommend the best way for a newbie to get a toe wet with some guidance?

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Let me elaborate. I have joined some communities where I could follow trades “over the shoulder”, but I still felt like I was missing some basics and it was hard to get direct answers. Feeling a need for more mentorship in the area of trading and wondering who has had good experiences? It’s hard to plunk down huge amounts of cash to get a private 1hr session with an expert. I haven’t been active in this community yet, so I’m hoping to get some general guidance–understanding, of course, that I will not accept ‘general guidance’ as ‘investment advice’. :slight_smile:

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Apart from stocking farm machinery, you have proper acerage there, have you considered stocking drum barrels lining up in rows and filling them with cheap cheap oil, possibly giant natgas container on premise?
If USD printing gets overdrive, can anyone prevent 200$ oil?

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Right now PMs are beating 10% without the worry. When u buy with cash ( or CC) and sell with cash you will need to remember at tax time to declare your massive gains.
FWIIW I use BIL (short term t bills) for extra cash or IRA. It is easy on/off ramp if u need to access. I like Chris have piled a lot in homestead preps and gardens / food prep/ storage
Do not have contacts for oil and gas - @cmartenson maybe chris could have one or more of his guys do a Financial U

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I like following precious metals due to what they are indicating but I think the bigger longer term picture deserves as much or more attention because shiny rocks won’t be of much use in a digital system in which the government decrees you can’t use them to buy anything. I expect PMs will be useful in the near future, but not much once the digital sustem is implemented. After that collapses, they will probably come back into favour, so it will be a gift for future generations should they survive. I have heard predictions that the 2040’s will be really bad, so maybe by 2050 things will improve? Whitney Webb is always very insightful, apologies if this has been posted before.

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I do keep my cost basis for metals, track my gains/losses and report.

I’ll compare BIL to SGOV, thanks for that.

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Whitney is a real eye-opener. I also like the Black Swan Capitalist lately–recommended by Francis Hunt–for his realistic views on the coming digital rails. He’s a big XRP bull, yet he’s also realistic about how bad that could be. His view is to be realistic that this train is already coming and at least get some benefit by being early.

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I notice that a lot of people have the attitude that we are going into a new era of scarcity and repriced assets, but the rules of the last 100 years will continue on. Thev ststem will work similarly, just digitally. But TPTB have told us we will own nothing. How is that anything like the previous system? They seem to still be in control despite recent blunders with Covid and Trump. We can expect to become serfs. We won’t have the rights and freedoms we appear to have today (a facade to help boil the frog, until the day the hammer comes down). We need to change our framing. I guess I’ve been aware of what’s coming for many years now so I can appreciate it but lots of people don’t.

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Why are you convinced that the “rules of the last 100 years will continue on”? Do you mean that the Fed will continue to print and inflate and deflate asset bubbles at a time of their choosing? Or do you mean that there will be only the appearance of social/economic mobility, when in fact the numbers will simply reflect the increase in government-spending fueled GDP numbers? I agree that we are being positioned as serfs. I have only realized my position as a serf within the last 10 years or so. Before that I thought we lived in a democratic republic! I’m here to learn.