In this episode of Finance U, Paul Kiker of Kiker Wealth Management and I discuss the Treasury Purchase Program which is almost certainly just another taxpayer-funded give-away to banks and other financial insiders.
Paul thinks the market is looking toppy here – not quite ready to call it “the” top, but now on higher alert for that possibility. Because he’s got experience, his risk-managed portfolio approach has pre-determined set points for exiting should they be reached.
Tune in for another conversation with Paul and myself as we ponder all things economic and financial.
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@cmartenson Thanks for your sleuthing out the LT bond buy back by the geniuses in Treasury. Test your hypothesis by Tweating that it’s a stealth bank bailout selectively benefitting friends like JP Morgan by buying back at par. The stronger the reaction, the closer you are to the truth.
On the question whether the Fed will bailout the banks, of course it will, that’s its (nefarious) purpose. To add, when Yellen declared some years back that we wouldn’t see another financial crisis in our lifetime, the inference was that the Fed would even go so far as to bailout its pillar-of-wealth-effect stock markets. Fine, it can likely monetize at a reasonably enough fast pace to catch a general market crash, but do we believe it can monetize fast enough to fill a black hole implosion in world derivatives markets, that could potentially suck in the entire planet’s financial liquidity, leading to a massive deflationary event?
I was just doing some research yesterday, stumbled onto this “The total cost to US taxpayers for bailouts from 1980 to 2024 is estimated to be around $23 trillion” ain’t seen nuthin yet I’m thinking
Whoa there! Yes, AI COULD make things more efficient, not just in services such as law, but with robotics, in assembling physical materials; cars, houses (bricks), computers. It will also replace artists and artisans with AI generated non-creative, derivative crap. What AI can’t do is support a growth-at-all-costs economy in the physical world. It’s not just energy (which AI will consume at increasingly horrific rates), it’s all physical raw materials and food.
So sure, a few human serfs could do what AI can’t or become status-symbol human servants for the wealthy, and then the rest have a life of leisure on UBI. But the never-ending-rush to create more mindless consumers (import consumers if your local population doesn’t reproduce like cockroaches), has a real limit in physical reality. You can produce virtual entertainment (circuses) in the metaverse, but you still run out of energy to run the massive computers that are supporting the AI mind control.
More importantly our massive consumption of useless, already obsolete junk can’t continue. Sure the assembly will be inexpensive - just print the garbage. But even the printers require raw materials of some sort. And the increasingly plastic junk needs oil (horrors). Not only no energy, no feedstock for our massive robotic factories. Oops.
Get physical things you might need (not cheap bling you want). I don’t care how cheap assembly/distribution might be - we’re running out of the raw materials to make anything. Maybe faster than we run out of energy.
And of course food, in WI, the Dems have given merchant power cart-blanche to install tax-payer subsidized industrial wind facilities (200+turbines in a county) on top of what used to be prime farmland. These rich soils can never be reclaimed. But of course that’s ok, they can cart the topsoil off to a nearby city to use as construction fill for huge housing developments that need the wind power. Win-win for the pillagers.
You’ve brought up to many practical considerations, it will destroy their utopia. You must AI it!
Ohh, and my fav ‘Buy stuff, buy it now’ because you’ll miss out!
Serious level 0
I said buy stuff because you’ll NEED it, not because you’ll miss out. This is not FOMO. Nor is it hoarding or stocking up things you can sell into the black market when things get bad.
When raw materials become scarce, first main street suffers from “unaffordium” and then we experience “unobtanium”. Chris advises stocking food and water for future emergencies. We also have key survival equipment that we will need to maintain in hard times. That means we need consumables and spare parts for our critical survival items [for example extra filters for my water cleaning systems, spare batteries of all sizes].
Sorry Barb I haven’t written my intent well. The buying sht and FOMO was referring to the useless stuff you mentioned, that ‘they’ want us to buy. At least you got my dig at AI, I hope.
FYI though look at alternative ways of doing whatever those batteries are used for, as they have a limited life. Also see if there’s a way you can make a filter from basic items. This filter problem I’m needing to find a solution for myself. You never know someone in PP might know how.
@cmartenson Hey Chris,
Lynn Alden wrote a fascinating piece on why the Treasury is buying off-the-run Treasury bonds in exchange for higher-interest debt.
I actually have vintage equipment that would let me do things the old way. and I’m over 70, so lack of strength and the arthritis in my hands keeps me from using much of it. I have a collection of vintage tractors and had planned to keep the one with blade and loader (moves DEEP snow better than the snow blower). When the tire sprung a leak (old ones were filled with water/antifreeze for weight) and flooded the shop basement, I realized I couldn’t maintain it, let alone use it anymore (no power steering). I sold it to someone who will be using it.
Anywhere I can get the “easy button”, I’m using it. I just bought a battery powered hand water pump so I don’t have to lift pails/watering cans above my head. Can’t believe it took me so long. It definitely helps my hands and shoulders from more damage.
If anyone in the Midwest wants vintage woodworking and shop equipment, or a couple vintage tractors (mostly non-battery electric, some hand), contact me directly. It needs to go to someone who will use it.
I have a friend in the law AI field. I know in the video Chris was just making a statement, but it is way way off. The future will bring Lawyers from the million mark to maybe the thousand mark. Pretty much if your not on the supreme court, or higher courts, of fed or state level, your out.
The powerful lawyers either represent criminals or go into politics (oh, wait that’s a criminal activity, too). They will hire serfs with a legal/maybe paralegal degree to help them program bots to do a better job of helping them bend the law to the benefit of their clients and themselves. And so these remaining lawyers will be even richer and more powerful and the serf helpers will indeed get the thousands.
yes. AI will take out the jobs in the middle. The top 10% will be jobs that need people, or emotion, and will remain mostly safe. The bottom 10% will be too difficult to replace at a cost effective strategy.
That’s good to hear you’ve got the old gear, and you will find a home for it, if you can’t use it. Sorry to hear about the Arthritis, we all have to look after ‘Number One’ so we can help others. So what ever you can do to make work easier. I also need to make sure all of my Grandfathers gear is in good order.
Great pull! That is a fun fantastic stat! Let’s assume that number is true/accurate. We can now use government math and easily get that to $100T, especially if we are stretching it over 44 years. Thank you
It makes me think of this quote from shortly before 12/23/1913 "This will inevitably reap to us huge profits beyond our wildest expectations and leave every American a contributor to this fraud, which we will call “Social Insurance (SSI)” .
Without realizing it, every American will insure us for any loss we may incur, and in this manner every American will unknowingly be our servant, however begrudgingly. The people will become helpless and without any hope for their redemption; and we will employ the high office of the President of our dummy corporation to foment this plot against America. " https://www.1215.org/lawnotes/lawnotes/house.htm
In response to Chris talking about the data centers and micro reactors, I have a personal friend who is currently involved in that field. He owns a company that builds specialty prototype equipment, mostly testing equipment in the Nuclear industry. His company is currently working with Westinghouse on their micro reactor design program. I had a conversation with him last week and we touched on this topic. He said that Microsoft had approached Westinghouse and wanted a quote on purchasing 20 of their micro reactors once they were released to the market. Once they got that price, they came back and asked how much for 200 of them. I’m sure they are price shopping between the 6 different companies currently in the design stage of this new technology, but to know that just Microsoft thinks they need that much power supposedly just for date centers, how much data are they really storing??
