Nvidia is also steeped in corruption as a 3.5hr movie exposing the corruption was pulled from YouTube as the Bloomberg attorneys decided the information hit too close to home.
This was the movie that was removed but reposted by another channel
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Speaking of things blowing up, there goes silver!
And in the US “we only sell silver” market. This qualifies as a change in trend, which indicates that the next leg in silver may have begun.
I would even say ‘probably has’ because this is a very rare and muscular move in the US Comex arena and it was preceded by the GDX (gold and silver miners) steadily crawling higher all month.
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Hi Ho Silver!
(Said by the loan arranger who had just the day before got his client money to purchase silver.)
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I don’t know. But I haven’t been counting on or factoring in any US stockpiling…just been going by this chart:
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Clever 
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What do we think Hi Ho Silver does when the stock market crashes due to the NVDA bubble pop? Same as in 2008 and 2020? Or will it be different this time?
Part of me would really love for it to crash, so I could buy it cheap like I did back in 2020.
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Do mind Mike, he’s just horsing around… 
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Regarding a potential IMF bailout of France (and maybe UK too), you can get an explanation of how this might go by watching ‘Princes of the Yen’ online, a documentary based on Richard Werner’s book. Although it’s mostly concerned with Japan, about halfway through there’s a description of the Asian crisis of the 1990s and the IMF bailout of Thailand. The Thais ran out of reserves to defend its currency and sought help from Japan and its large store of US Treasuries. Japan seemed willing to help, but the IMF (and/or associated forces) put a stop to that. Then, the bailout terms forced cut-rate sales of assets, but only to foreign buyers, plus other economic ‘reforms.’ It’s remarkable that the Thais remained generally well-disposed to countries whose bankers had pillaged their own economy, but probably most didn’t understand what happened and those running the country believed there wasn’t a viable alternative.
It’s possible that France and the UK won’t get raped quite as savagely, since they serve other functions in the failing European project, but maybe the most they can hope for is that the IMF will at least use some lube this time. Then again, I also can’t help but wonder if we’ll see the Trump administration brokering a ‘deal they can’t refuse’ to advance America’s interests at Europe’s expense.
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Nivdia reminds me of Sun Microsystems during the dot-com mania, when most of the startups were spending their VC money on Sun hardware as fast as Sun could produce it, and Sun’s stock soared. When the bubble burst, not only did the sales collapse but the market was flooded with still relatively new Sun systems, competing against Sun for sales. I knew an IBM insider who recounted a conversation with a senior exec who said ‘the guys at Sun have never managed through a downturn but we have, and we’re going to put them under.’ And that’s what happened: Sun was later sold to Oracle at $9.50/share, vs. its peak of $250.
Nvidia isn’t a perfect comparison because Sun made its stuff and was investing in more capacity, whereas Nvidia just does design and might not be quite as heavily exposed overall, but its stock price certainly is.
The broader comparison between the dot-com bubble and the AI situation is that the general forecast for the technology’s impact might prove correct and still not matter. Online commerce did indeed transform a lot of industries (the so-called ‘new economy’), but Amazon emerged the big winner (in retail) while Pets.com and countless others vanished. Similarly, AI might prove as transformational as claimed but still unable to support all its competitors and their huge investments profitably.
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Could it be that a factor in who makes it and who does not has to do with who has quiet government contracts and who does not?
Oh man, Chris. When you started talking about inflation and that poor man who’s property taxes doubled or tripled, my hands started sweating. I often think, it’s not how prepared I am, but how much Grace I have - that’s Grace from the Lord!
In 2010, I had a house fire that burned me out of my home and office for 14 months. It was a big loss, a ginormous inconvenience, lost a chunk of my business during that time, but it turned out to be a blessing in disguise.
Yikes electricity and food costs!!! Frightful! It’s going to get worse before it gets better. I would recommend the book “When Money Dies” by Adam Ferguson. A remarkable real time account of the hyperinflationary period in Austria and Germany circa 1921-1923. The cure hurt as much as the hyperinflation, and it was fascinating to see which groups of people faired better or worse during the up and down of the currency.
The US Stock All Time High’s chart is interesting. According to the revolutions, the first high to high was 36 years, the second high to high was 34 years, and right now we’re at the 27th year from the last high. I wonder how much influence the exponential function has on speeding up the next down turn?
Forgive my ignorance, Chris, but what’s a monthly MACD? That’s a high-top roller coaster ride down hill, but I have no idea what it signifies!
When ever Chris talks about NVDIA, I harken back to one of his scouting reports about how it’s now legal for a company to “cook their books” so long as the government gives you the “permit”/sanction/permission, or whateverTF, and I automatically think: “that company is cooking their books.”
The investing I have access to is related to my health. For the first time, I’m not only considering, but have set a date for a 3 day water fast. My retreat mentor, Miss Kathy, planted the seed; at the time I did not think I was ready.
But now that I have changed my eating habits, greatly reduced my sugar and processed food intake, increased my physical activity, and am loosely following a 6-18 eating cycle with zero cigarettes(!) over the last 17 months …
…Now, I’m ready. And so is my husband. He has been experiencing vertigo for a number of years now. It’s getting worse and he got a scare recently - and he’s fed up with feeling tired, sore and cranky all the time, so he’s on board with restricted eating and moving into a water fast too. My sister in law and I are going to do it first, while the husband is traveling out of the country.
We all have to find our unique path to health; here’s a doctor I’ve run across that has inspired me to do a water fast and to stick more closely to the 6-18 eating cycle, which is: eating 2 meals in a 6 hour period and water fasting the remainder of your waking hours.
Meet cardiologist, Dr. Pradip Jamnadasa, a most unusual MD who puts all of his patients in the hospital on NPO! Meaning no food! Dr. Pradip has taken a deep dive into fasting and it’s effects on the body; he offers college and grad school level lectures on the benefits and mechanisms of water fasting - in layman’s terms - and he’s quite funny.
Cheers to Everyone and may our health be with us!
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Silver blew past 40 dollars an ounce ($40.89) this morning. Gold is close to blowing past 3500 dollars an ounce ($3,486.00.)
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You are so right, Rick. Even though this past year I have not gardened much at all, with the exception of a hot pepper plant and some basil and other herbs, but I am still getting the pay off from earlier investments: Pears, peaches, persimmons, lemons, grapefruit finally coming in, and sometimes bananas and papayas! (Plus all the muskadine grapes we can pick from a friend’s farm.)
When our power goes out for more than 24 hours, we have a handy hand pump, so we still have access to our water. Still need rain barrels, a shelter from the heat and storms, and more community.
Uh Oh, this makes me think the us gov is going to confiscate silver this time, instead of gold.
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Then its really too bad I lost all my silver in a tragic boating accident.
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Same here along with my guns and ammo. Somewhere on the bottom of Lake Kerr. Tragic.
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Is everyone familiar with the adage “dancing near the exits”? Ive been a Registered Investment adviser for 27 yrs. Ive been bullish and bearish. In that time the most important thing ive learned is to HAVE A PROCESS and stick with it. I, like you, are aware that stocks are overvalued. Some, historically so. But if you were to sell everything out of fear, you are letting emotions be your guide instead of math.
The numbers say that we currently are in a short growth slowdown and growth is likely to pick up later this fall. Inflation is going to stay elevated for now. If this is the case, my client allocations to equities are going to remain but with a RISK MANAGED stop loss that i can live with. This way, you participate in the upside party, while dancing near the door. Shoud conditions deteriorate, and the party become loud and chaotic, you can slip out before the shit hits the fan and the cops are called.
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A great question. The answer is that expensive can always get more expensive. Extend and pretend.
Just more noticing on this guy’s blog, which links through to a more thorough substack article: Bayou Renaissance Man: Boom, or impending bust?
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