Dmitry Orlov: The US Is Sleepwalking Towards A Nuclear Confrontation

Chello55:
You may have something there. I married a woman from Quebec and crave French food and wine.

Most of my mother's family are born towhead blond with sky blue eyes, but every now and then a child appears with jet black hair, and dark brown, slightly almond shaped eyes. A reminder of the ancient empire of Genghis Khan and his hordes who held the Slavs in submission for several centuries.

The plains and steppes of eastern Europe have been a melting pot for thousands of years and probably none of us from there are exactly what we think we are.

I have not done the gene ancestry test yet, but I have been tempted and will probably do it at some point.

JT

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_vGHqIvoHg
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"Be cheerful while you are alive."  – Ptah-Hotep, 24th Century B.C.

https://www.edge.org/conversation/molly_crockett-daniel_kahneman-deontology-or-trustworthiness

It was even worse in the 70s, and 90s.  People just don't know what they don't know.  Tom, you can probably figure out the 70s though.

It would only allow our PTB to see very clearly the incoming volley which would transform US into Mars.

"…Russia has developed, or mention the fact that Russian nuclear subs lurking along the American western and eastern seaboards all the time on patrol armed with these caliber supersonic cruise missiles that the US has absolutely nothing to detect them with or to shoot them down – and they can be nuclear tipped."
My point was 10 years ago we had stuff to detect these missiles. So, the USA sees 20 missiles pop up out of the ocean 3 miles off the coast with their "wonder radar" and they sit there and do nothing? It's called mutually assured destruction for a reason. My point was Mr. Orlov's boastful claims about Russia's vast superiority militarily should be questioned. I mean, a "giant impenetrable shield over most of Russia"? By definition that is >3.31 million square miles that are covered by this giant shield (and 3.31 million square miles is 50.01% of the land mass). If that doesn't sound ridiculous to you, then I think you need to re-calibrate your bullshit meter. 

I don't disagree with much of anything else in the podcast, but the military claims are preposterous. Also, as someone who spent 6 years and 3 deployments with SOF in Afghanistan and Iraq, you'd be amazed at what 12 guys and a couple million dollars could do with the backing of the Muslims in the Caucus region. It's called 10th group, and most of them speak Russian. I do think Russia has pinpointed the Achilles heal of the U.S. with the power grid, the banks, etc., but it's quite juvenile to assume the U.S. isn't working on figuring out what Russia's Achilles heal is as well. I guess it won't matter though when Earth looks like Mars. 

[quote] Yes, it is unfortunate that such carelessness is being provoked. But basically if you are – if you want to move your military vessel right next to the territorial waters off a sovereign nation, you generally have to contact that nation and tell them what you are doing. [/quote] No you don't. As long as territorial waters aren't violated, the Freedom of Navigation principle of International Law applies. It's laid out pretty clearly in the United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea to which the US and Russia are signatories. And while the US has not ratified the convention we both observe it and don't interfere with another maritime country's FONOPS. [quote] And also there should be a transponder on your vessel so that everybody knows who they are. And the Americans haven’t bothered to do that, which is why there are these fly overs. The Russians go out and they go out and they identify the vessel. [/quote] And also there is… It's called AIS - Automatic Identification System. It's required on all ships over 300 gross tons. The transponder communicates with a satellite constellation and the ship's voyage information (current heading, speed over ground, nav track, destination port, etc.) are all available on any number of (easily googleable) websites tracking maritime traffic. It's primary use is to supplement a vessel's search radar for collision avoidance. It's is on all US military vessels and presumably Russian and Chinese military vessels, but it is widely known that all/most military ships turn it off. One question…if it was that big of a deal, why did all of the recent Russian flyovers occur with unarmed aircraft? Maybe I can scare the ship away with super cool Top Gun shit hot jet jock fighter pilot stud flying? "C'mon Maverick, time to do some of that pilot shit" [quote] Same thing with these spy planes that have been encroaching on Russia’s borders. The Russians fly and identify them and accompanied them. This is perfectly normal behavior, but what is provoking it is the refusal of the Americans to cooperate. [/quote] Refusal to cooperate?!?!?!?!?
Ha, ha, ha, ha…No.

The only "cooperation" required is adherence to safe flight encounter guidelines and staying out of someone else's sovereign air space. It is preferred that such intercepts are conducted deliberately and safely and for the most part they are.  You may recall PLAN LCDR Wong Wei's inability to fly his Chinese J-8 interceptor professionally and safely, which resulted in him colliding with a US EP-3.  LCDR Wong Wei died on impact when his canopy was crushed by the fuselage of the EP-3.  He was a pretty crappy pilot with a well documented track record of unsafe intercept passes.  LT Shane Osborn - commander of the EP-3 received the Distinguished Flying Cross for regaining control of his plane, safely landing on Hainan, and saving the lives of his crew. 
How did that "cooperation" work out for the Russian SU-24 in Turkey last year? I digress…lots of other moving parts, back story, mistakes and finger pointing to that one.

Dmitry, why no commentary on the recent BEAR aircraft incursions close to Finland, Norway and UK airspace?

In other words, business as usual is happening in the sky and on the sea and in the vast majority of instances, International law convention(s) governing Freedom of Navigation are being followed.

It only looks like a big deal to people who are unfamiliar with what they are looking at but glom on to the first plausible sounding back story. Even when what they glom on to isn't correct.

Especially when what they glom on to isn't correct.

I got to know more about Dmitry from his first appearance in a podcast here about the crisis in the Ukraine and have since checked out his latest takes off and on.  In this case, his analysis and perspective shine through again.
However, Dmitry's conclusions and plans are somewhat particular.  I guess that it'd make sense to find sanctuary in Russia for a Russian in the chance of a global socio-economic collapse.  Russia is a resource rich country with a sizeable population that's already been stressed in the last few years by the sanctions.  So, on one hand, it can provide a reasonable economy of scale and division of labor just considering its internal market and be able to do without foreign trade for some time, I suppose.  On the other hand, a crisis has just been inflicted on it and led it to react and, say, plug the holes and mend the cracks on the dam of its economy.  Methinks therefore that Russia is not a bad place to weather out a global crisis, provided that it doesn't escalate to to a global war.

If the coming crisis does escalate to a global war, Russia would be a primary player in it, for better and for worse.  Its military capabilities allow it to project influence and to defend itself, both necessary traits considering its geopolitical position on the atlas.  However, they also make Russia a primary target.

Indeed, unlike Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria or Yemen, an attack to Russian interests would result in retaliation on the attacker's interests and an attack against Russians would result in retaliation against the attackers.  Still, the end result would be a bloodbath and the loss of millions of souls.

From this perspective, I'd prefer S. America, which is surrounded by thousands of miles of oceans that deprive it of any strategic value.  Some of the countries in the continent also enjoy plentiful resources and advanced economies to survive on their own, but in peace with their immediate and distant neighbors.  No need to mention the much more favorable climate and abundant crops.  However, their worst enemies are found internally, in their utterly corrupt political and economic agents as well as in their rampant criminal class.  But, like Dmitry, that's me, a Latin.

PS: Dmitry is brilliant in his analysis of the facts, especially involving his homeland, but can sometimes be a bigoted misanthrope too.  So keep what is good from what he offers and trash what is bad.

Read vineyard saker’s blog. Pro Russia, but very informative.

Aloha! I used to run "trail marathons" in the Santa Cruz mountains in Northern California. It wasn't a race where the fastest won because when you run trails you have to be pay attention and be smarter, other wise you take the wrong trail and get lost. I think throughout history the Russians have celebrated unity through suffering whereas Americans have suffered unity by innovation.
This is the Middle Class in America right now. The Middle Class is as close to being Russian as any American can be. In the photo below the Middle Class is bailing out the boat. The bankers and politicians are the ones at the bow not bailing.

In reality not even the bankers and politicians are "safe"! They do not realize it yet, but they are the most "at risk" group over the next decade. It is simply the way Empire works. The elite lose touch with the people and they lose touch with reality. They end up taking a path built on lies and like running a trail marathon those who "think they know" end up being lost. They succumb to tunnelvision and lose their peripheral vision. They focus on the their feet as they tread the dirt. They focus on corruption. They refuse to see the trail ahead.

We are forced to vote for the 1% who are forced to be inept. It is better to trade goods than bullets! I would rather pursue a path of trade with Russia, but the inept vote for the inept! The corrupt vote for the corrupt! It's Empire!!